Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll finds Labor retaining the clear two-party preferred lead it opened a fortnight ago, and an even balance of opinion on the realism of renewable energy targets.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll finds Labor maintaining its two-party lead of 52-48, although the primary vote has Labor down a point to 36% and the Coalition up one to 39% – reflecting the fact that the Coalition clearly had rounding going in its favour in the earlier poll. The Greens and “others” are steady at 10% and 15%. There is little change on personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down one on approval to 31% and up one on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and steady on 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 44-33 to 45-30. The poll also finds 39% agreeing that renewable energy targets are unrealistic versus 36% for disagree. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1622.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has Labor recovering its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after slipping to 51-49 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two points to 38%, Labor is steady at 36%, the Greens are up two to 10%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly reading of leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 41%; Bill Shorten up one to 37% and down one to 40%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-28, down from 41-26. The other questions follow up on the recent controversy generated over the pollster’s finding that half of respondents would favour a ban on Muslims migrating to Australia, and demonstrates the importance of how questions are framed. In particular, 53% professed themselves concerned at the number of Muslims in Australia with 42% not concerned, but 56% said prospective migrants families should not be rejected on the basis of religion with 24% taking the other view. The poll also found 61% taking a positive view of multiculturalism with 23% for negative. A question on renewable energy had 60% identifying it as “the solution to our energy needs”, with only 16% opting for the alternative, “a threat to future energy supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,214 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Paul Bongiorno, good Catholic that he is, was on the radio this morning saying that the Marriage Equality Plebiscite is gone & that means it is off the agenda for this term of parliament.

    Then he said the quickest way to get ME was to elect a Labor federal government at the next election. : )

  2. Markjs

    I don’t doubt it. However that does not mean my argument has no merit. It just means the jockeys fear loss of control because they are pushing the horse too far.

    Ban the whips or ban racing. I know which choice the jockeys will make. Owners trainers and jockey’s will have to rethink how their whole approach to how they do their horse racing practices.

    The actual point of the animal rights activists.

  3. dtt

    There is a particularly cruel bridle, the one which is most in use in events such as dressage, which virtually cannot be used at all without causing pain.

    It is a lazy method of horse control; the aim of using it is to get the horse to position its head in a certain way, which is perfectly achievable through correct training (but takes longer).

    It is an example of fashion trumping other considerations – to begin with, these bridles were looked down upon as a sign of poor training but then they became the ‘norm’, so that a rider who wasn’t using them was disadvantaged.

    There are ways of controlling horses (at that end, at least!) which do not involve bits (American Indians used specially knotted bridles which put pressure on the horse’s head rather than bits).

    Bits have the potential to cause more pain than a whip (the pressure is exerted directly on soft tissue, particularly on the tongue) — but the aim of training horses is to control them painlessly (and, as I have already pointed out, a whip does not have to cause pain to work).

  4. Its only the media that has got in a lather about Labor not opposing the plebiscite.

    And the media only did it because that is what the Liberals told it to. And the Liberals did it because they wanted to force Labor into quick opposition, so that it looked like Labor cruelled the rights of gays to get married, rather than the absurd Liberal position.

  5. Um, guytaur, unless you are on the ground, using a whip has nothing to do with ‘loss of control’. It is to get the horse’s attention.

  6. guytaur

    Trump said he was going to go after Bill Clinton. Seriously, he is not running for President. Does this mean Hillary should go after Trump’s wife?

  7. Only three hundred years ago a whole English village at a time would get together to beat a bull to death.
    Various forms of fights to the death involving anything from chooks to bears was such fun. Horses were whipped as required. Really whipped. Kids died like flies when either stuck up chimneys or falling down chimneys.
    Peccant seamen were whipped until the bones showed. The bad ones were keel hauled.
    The use of torture to improve justice outcomes was not to be blinked at.
    Miscreants were put in the stocks so that they could be abused at will by the fun loving populace.
    Women were burned alive because they were witches.
    The really, truly best fun was a hanging. None of this your break the neck rubbish. The method was strangulation with lots of jerking and bouncing around to the oohs and ahs of the crowd. But wait there is more: to add a bit of sauce, there would often be both an erection and an ejaculation of sorts.
    As as salutary lesson the bodies would then be allowed to rot in public display

    How we got from this sort of commonplace to where we are now in relation to cruelty to children, dogs, horses and each other is an interesting study.

  8. I’m sure that Clinton won’t taken by surprise that Trump will go all out on Bill. Particularly because he said at the end of last debate that he wouldn’t, thereby bring it up.

  9. BuzzFeed Oz Politics
    Just now ·
    Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump comes EXACTLY four years ago to the day Julia Gillard squared off against Tony Abbott and delivered the “Misogyny Speech”

  10. markjs @ #148 Monday, October 10, 2016 at 10:43 am

    I can tell anyone who wants to listen ..there would not be a single jockey in Australia ..ney, the world ..who would EVER get on a race-horse sans whip ..not one..
    ..whatever Guytaur has to say on the matter..

    I have never ridden a horse and have no experience with horses.
    I therefore choose to say nothing on the topic.
    Guytaur on the other hand ….

  11. [Victoria
    Monday, October 10, 2016 at 10:51 am
    guytaur
    Trump said he was going to go after Bill Clinton. Seriously, he is not running for President. Does this mean Hillary should go after Trump’s wife?]

    Realistically, Trump’s only option is to claim “They’re all as bad as me”. Of course, that approach will win him almost no votes.

  12. So Trump has spent the past few days lining up women from Bill Clinton’s past to come out and talk about his sexual misconduct. How unsurprisement

  13. c@tmomma @ #149 Monday, October 10, 2016 at 10:43 am

    Kay Jay,
    I used to work for ‘Madam Lash’.
    ….As a seamstress who used to sew up her Bondage gear. Ah, the ways we put ourselves through Uni. : )

    What great variety of experience and knowledge among PB. My lovely wife only made beanies and teapot cozies. I expect that Mme Lash successors are still going the rounds or giving the Johns the rounds or whatever. A good day to you Mlle C@t. 🙂

  14. zoomster

    As you have pointed out their are reins to do that. Yes I agree with you about types of reins.

    Just shows why regulation is needed. Banning whips in racing is regulation. You have even posted alternatives jockeys can use instead of whips.

    Its that simple. Jockeys abuse whips in racing because they want the horse to go faster when the horse may not want to exert as much as the jockey wants. This is purely for winning money not for racing a horse by telling it to go faster.

    Racing that accepts natural limits will not try and force a horse to go faster than its natural limits. Its that exceeding natural limits that results in horses dying due to over exertion.

  15. deirdrewalshcnn: Pelosi on CNN after Trump photo op – “so beneath the dignity of the office of the president” says hopes also beneath dignity of his family

  16. Trump is so desperate that he is Retweeting claims by a woman, who hasn’t been able to prove anything for over 20 years, that Bill Clinton raped her!

  17. victoria @ #155 Monday, October 10, 2016 at 10:50 am

    bemused
    I havent sought any feedback lately from my union connections re this dispute

    Ta.
    I can’t see what all the fuss is about with a section of the volunteers.
    I similarly can’t see that the proposed legislation, on what I know of it, achieves anything.
    So why not just laugh it through?

  18. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    1m1 minute ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING: Donald Trump has held a media event with women who accused former president Bill Clinton of sexual misdeeds

  19. #BREAKING: Donald Trump has held a media event with women who accused former president Bill Clinton of sexual misdeeds

    Good grief. How is this a reflection on Hillary Clinton?

  20. Victoria

    Also to announce the woman will be part of the audience and thus get to ask questions of Clinton.

    So its a real double down and will be a gutter debate.

  21. The audience who ask questions are supposed to be undecideds. Each of those women said wtte ‘Donald Trump will make America great again’ so they can’t be considered undecided.

  22. Chuck Todd – Verified account ‏@chucktodd

    Not sure if this pre debate event featuring Bill Clinton accusers is reassuring those leaders that Trump will show contrition.
    4:46 PM – 9 Oct 2016
    396 RETWEETS797 LIKES

  23. “Good grief. How is this a reflection on Hillary Clinton?”
    It is if Trump can how she knew about it and did nothing. Hypocrisy?

  24. victoria

    Worse than pathetic. A deliberate try and steal an election by smearing a former President and husband to attack an opposing candidate because he has no defence of his own behaviour.

    Hopefully as I expect it will fail dismally. The only problem I see with this behaviour is I see Trump questioning the results of the vote enabling real dangerous reaction from his supporters after the election result becomes known.

  25. roger miller @ #150 Monday, October 10, 2016 at 10:44 am

    Kayjay
    The cars that drive around Bathurst have nothing to do with any car made or sold in Australia other than the shape of the fibreglass body. One of the reasons for having “Volvo” and “Nissan” who don’t currently sell V8 powered cars is so they can continue with “ford” and “holden” when they are made elsewhere.

    Yes. I know. I am interested in whether the “Holden” and “Ford” or “Nissan” brands will still be promoted as such. Thanks for your input. I am a well know expert in not much at all although, at one time, I was known as the “Wet as Piss Champion of Tottenham, Victoria”. So much for my claim to fame! 🙂

  26. C@tmomma wtoe:

    … it was placed on the record today that EVERY Nationals MP, bar the 3 who crossed the floor to vote against the ban on Greyhound Racing was at severe likelihood of losing their seat at the next NSW State Election.

    I agree with you that the Nationals MPs think it’s the greyhound issue. Hadley et al are certainly making a lot of noise about it (and crowing now that it appears there may be a change tomorrow).

    But the polls consistently say that the Greyhound Ban is pretty popular with the public.

    In my conspiratorial heart I get the feeling that the Greyhoun thng has been agreed upon as the cause of Baird’s unpopularity because it’s easy for the shock jocks to appeal to the “working class” greyhound industry, but also because it takes the heat off a much more major cause of disquiet: the creeping privatization of whole industries, plus (ironically) the nationalization of others, for short term revenue gain, and long term payment pain on the part of the public.

    We will be paying for poles and wires, tunnels, freeways and the like, poor people will be living out in the sticks with their traditional homes sold underneath them to developers, local amenity and governance that has taken a century to establish and is now gone, for many years after Baird is but a footnote in an obscure appendix to the state’s political history.

    While the Greyhound Ban has been put forward as the reason (we are told there is no other with hardly any supporting evidence), and there certainly are many who feel aggrieved by it, I think on the whole it’s a convenient straw man for the real cause. Let’s hate the Greyhound Ban so we don’t worry about the rest of the rape of our state.

    The Coalition are supposed to be in danger of losing Orange in the November 12 by-election, but that’s only one seat in a whopping majority. A real steely-eyed Premier would shrug his shoulders at it, just write it off. If he gives ground on Greyhounds, then the theory is that the punters will love him again, because he’s solved the only problem we were told by the media that there was to solve.

    Baird can’t solve the blight on the landscape of the thousands of apartments he’s allowed to be built, at the cost of demolishing local shopping areas, heritage houses, playing fields and the legitimate dreams of many home owners. He can’t order them demolished now that they’re built. So he caves in on a second order issue that hasn’t even happened yet. Big hero Baird. Man of the people.

    At least that’s my take. It’s a diversion from the real problem besetting this government.

  27. CNN now playing tape of Trump in 1999 defending Clinton for going through a terrible time gone through worst for a woman over Clinton impeachment period. So hypocrisy is on full display

  28. Victoria

    Yes. I saw that. Of course its an empty threat. In US lawsuits fail if public interest test works. Presidential campaign has that test in spades covered.

  29. Catalyst a few years ago had a story on horse whipping, and de- bunked some horse myths including some on here today re: horses have thicker skin.

    Dr Lydia Tong
    The really interesting part is that right up in the epidermis, which is the top layer, and that’s where the pain-sensing C fibres are. In the human specimen, that’s thicker than the horse’s. So by the old argument of horses’ skin is thicker and they feel it less, actually, you could argue human skin is thicker.

    Dr Jonica Newby
    Right. Oh, that’s a surprise.

    Dr Lydia Tong
    It is. It was unexpected, actually.

    NARRATION
    As you can see, the pain-sensing fibres stretch right up into the very surface of the skin. And to her and my astonishment, the density of nerve fibres, stained red, is higher in the horse. It looks like they may have more pain-sensing nerve endings in the flank than we do.

    Dr Jonica Newby
    Wow, that’s fascinating. And no-one’s looked at this before?

    Dr Lydia Tong
    No.

    http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/4201890.htm

  30. Trump has moved way beyond ‘blame the victim’ ..he’s now into ‘publicly attack the victim’..

    ..this nonsense will only serve to reinforce the view that Trump has no respect for women ..and no sympathy for those women abused by their husbands..

    ..how can this possibly be a good political move ..he’s about to commit seppuku on National (International) Television!!..

  31. Those women are not doing themselves any favours appearing with Trump. His views on women portray that sexual assault is OK when you have money and power, and these women are sitting beside him. They must have a slate loose.

  32. KayJay

    I am very interested in from whence the cars will be sourced in coming years.

    Yep. I understand Volvo is pulling the plug on their involvement this year.

    Ford, I understand, will go on with a Mustang but not next year.

    I think that in a couple of years without local Holdens and Fords ‘V8 Super Cars’ will be a dead brand.

  33. Good grief. How is this a reflection on Hillary Clinton?

    Trump has alleged she encouraged her husband to do it. I think “enabled” was the word.

    I said the other day that Hilary should have run a mile from this, because of Bill Clinton’s antics. Let the staffers, journos and apparatchiks handle it. Make no comment.

    But would she listen to me?

    No!

  34. They have claimed Bill Clinton raped them and then they sit next to a person who has been accused by a 13 year old girl of raping her. Sheesh,the world has gone mad.

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