BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The Track is back, as Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition.

The only new poll this week was the usual fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research, which moved a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferrred, leaving Labor’s lead at 51-49. On the primary vote, the Coalition was up one to 40%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 8%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 3%. However, the big news so far as this post is concerned is the post-election return of BludgerTrack, which opens its account with 17 data points to work from – three from Newspoll, and 14 from Essential Research.

bt2019-2016-10-05

Each pollster is bias-adjusted based on the difference between the election result and a trend measure of their voting intention numbers at that time, with the results halved to account for the likelihood that they will tweak their methodology rather than persist in their existing errors. On this basis, the adjustments for Newspoll are +0.0% for the Coalition, 0.2% for Labor and +0.0% for the Greens, while those for Essential Research are respectively -0.7%, +0.5% and -0.1%. For the time being, results are being weighted according to a formula that gives each pollster equal weight over the full course of the present term, so that the more prolific a pollster is, the less weight its polls will be given. On this basis, the weighting for a single Essential poll is currently 0.071, while a Newspoll gets one-third.

This means the dominant data point so far as the current reading is concerned is last week’s Newspoll, which was published as 52-48 to Labor, but came out at 52.7-47.3 after 2016 election preferences were applied to the bias-adjusted primary vote. This is why the current BludgerTrack reading is a little more favourable to Labor than you might expect, given the run of recent polling. Preferences are allocated according to the results of the July election, there presently being no other option, but I will eventually move to a method that splits the difference between previous election preferences and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences, if and when Ispos and ReachTEL provide enough such data to make it worthwhile. Such an approach would have been almost perfectly accurate at the recent election, although the previous election method has generally performed better in the past. The leadership results go back to the start of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in mid-September last year – note that no change is recorded in the “last week” column at this point, owing to the lack of new results this week.

Further poll stuff:

• After numerous polls finding the public favouring a referendum to solve the same-sex marriage question, a follow-up result from last week’s Newspoll found 48% favouring a “politicians decide&148; options versus 39% for a plebiscite in February. This week’s Essential Research gave respondents an option between “the government should agree to a vote in parliament” and “the Labor Party, Greens and Xenophon Team should agree to a plebiscite”, with respective results of 53% and 24%.

• Both pollsters also asked how they would vote in a referendum, with Newspoll finding 62% to 32% in favour of yes, and Essential coming in at 58% to 28%. Essential also found 49% believed such a vote should be binding on parliament, with 26% preferring the alternative option of leaving parliamentarians with a free vote.

• Essential posed a series of questions on the National Broadband Network, which found 42% favouring “the Labor plan” and 27% “the Liberal government’s plan”; only 22% saying the NBN would “adequately meet Australia’s future Internet requirements”, with 47% saying it wouldn’t; and 88% agreeing the internet was “becoming an essential service”, with only 7% disagreeing.

• Fifty per cent rated the level of immigration to Australia over the past 10 years as too high, 12% as too low and 28% as about right, while 44% opposed the recently announced increase in the annual refugee intake, with 39% supportive. Relatedly, Essential recently released widely publicised results on Muslim immigration and Pauline Hanson from its survey of July 27 to August 1. This found 49% supporting a ban on Muslim immigration versus 40% opposed, and strong majorities supporting the propositions that Hanson was “speaking for a lot of ordinary Australians” (62% to 30%) and “talks about issues other politicians too scared to tackle” (65% to 28%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,021 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 21
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  1. kevin-one-seven @ #97 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 11:10 am

    As others have commented, the weirdest thing about Jack Walker is that he is a 27 year old “adviser” in Pyne’s office. What the hell could a 27 year old advise about in defence procurement (or anything). Oh, he once worked for Photios. Obviously Photios planted one of his lads in Pyne’s office for future use. No wonder so many ministerial offices seem to chaotic and come up with such stupid ideas.

    Hmm. “Advisor”?

  2. stephanieando: Gallagher: We’re not prepared to accept the sham process that existed this week, a stitch up that existed #auspol

  4. political_alert: .@SenKatyG: Labor will continue to call for a banking royal commission because this week’s hearings “simply scratched the surface” #auspol

  5. Zoomster

    While it is certainly a good news story for Clinton just now, I would beware of complacency. The NATIONAL polls are giving very mixed results with the LA tracking poll still showing a 4% trump lead.

    on the other hand the state based polling in swing states is very positive for Hillary.

  6. daretotread @ #105 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 11:24 am

    Zoomster
    While it is certainly a good news story for Clinton just now, I would beware of complacency. The NATIONAL polls are giving very mixed results with the LA tracking poll still showing a 4% trump lead.
    on the other hand the state based polling in swing states is very positive for Hillary.

    Has she died yet?

  8. There are plenty of examples where businesses choose not to do business with otther people and organisations. Some Banks will not underwrite legitimate businesses like Brothels and there has been quite a push recently by some Banks to divest from Coal and noxious/environmentally controversial investments.

    In the end there is no obligation by anyone to perform any task if they don’t wish to do so.

    My best advice for people who don’t like it is to shop around.

  12. For example, the article states that Trump’s main supporters are ‘likely voters’ versus Clinton’s being ‘registered voters’.

    In other words, his support is among people who ‘might vote’ versus hers being amongst those who ‘do vote’.

    More like Trump’s support is coming from people who will vote, while Clinton’s is from people who can vote:

    Registered voters are those who in response to a standard poll question say they are “registered to vote in their precinct or election district.” This is the group whose data Gallup reports most often because they represent an estimate of Americans who in theory are eligible to vote and could vote if they want to.

    Of course, Gallup knows that in the final analysis, not all of these registered voters will actually vote. So Gallup has over the years created systems to isolate likely voters — that group of individuals who the company can estimate are most likely to actually vote.

    Ahead in the ‘likely voter’ category is what you want to be. And as far as I can tell, Clinton is by about 5-6 points at the moment. The only exception is the LA Times poll, which I write off as using a rubbish methodology.

    Also, this.

  13. To do with nothing at all.
    I wonder do some of the heartless, pitiless, empathy free members of the Federal Government, having at some time read “The Bastard From the Bush”, taken it as an instruction manual?

  16. “The World Bank has admitted the growth of global free trade has not been a success for all”
    An admission that ordinary people know more about economics than it does.

  19. Gary Linnel on “If it ain’t cuddly, kill it.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-on-earth-did-sharks-become-the-new-dolphin-20161006-grwojo.html

    The best way to avoid getting eaten by a shark is not to go out surfing at 6am or 6pm, two hundred meters off-shore, next to an estuary, with your legs dangling over the side of your surfboard in deep water. You may as have”Please Eat Me” tattooed onto your calves.

    If Linnel believes slaughtering a species that – by his own admission – has survived hundreds of millions of years as the ocean’s top predator, and may survive hundreds of millions of years more is a good thing, then I despair for his world view.

    A few surf shoppes experience reduced business. A dozen or so surfies have to show some common sense. Primal fears arise, understandably but avoidably, at being eaten alive. So let’s wipe out Great Whites. Pity their hundred million years progress was interrupted by a select few, whose main aim was to make a profit out of a business that may last 20 years, or to purchase products from that business. They’ll be long gone before the sharks even notice.

    Linnel puts it down as a the greatest “PR exercise” in history. It’s not. It’s a simple equation: sharks, as do any life forms, have a right to be left alone without being slaughtered merely on suspicion.

    I’m quite sure that if one was gnawing at my own leg I’d try to harm it, even kill it if I had a knife (and the wits to do anything but scream). But until that day, I’m actually quite happy that they’re out there swimming around, coming in for seal on toast and a side serving of school fish, and tough tits if they snap up the odd unwary idiot on a surfboard.

    The ocean is not your local aquatic center. It’s not a chlorinated pool. It’s the ocean, and we should celebrate it, unfenced and untamed, rather than try to kill everything in it that gets in the way of our recreational activities. Sure, send up the drones and launch the jet skis, but leave these – yes Gary – magnificent creatures to do what they have perfected doing over eons, a few more years anyway than your miserable knee-jerk existence and that of all your descendants and ancestors put together can even conceive, much less hope to emulate.

  20. dtt

    I’ve been complacent since I first looked at the US polls, back in February.

    So far things are playing out pretty much as I thought they would – and as I predicted, when I first looked at the polls back in February.

  21. A R

    Wow – I was corrected on this by TPOF about two pages ago, accepted the correction and explained why I got the terms mixed up — and you come along and correct me again.

    Thanks…I think.

  22. President Barack Obama’s approval rating hit 55 percent in a new CNN/ORC poll out today, which is the highest mark since his second term began. Separately, he’s up to 54 percent in Gallup’s tracking poll which is also his highest since his second inauguration.

    These are the kind of numbers that ought to give one some doubt about the theory that Donald Trump is well-positioned to ride a current of popular demand for change into the White House.

    http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13185026/obama-approval-rating

  24. ‘I wonder do some of the heartless, pitiless, empathy free members of the Federal Government, having at some time read “The Bastard From the Bush”, taken it as an instruction manual?’

    Their private school education prepared them perfectly for the life that they were to assume as adults. Brought up in a perfect bubble, with the kind of facilities, surroundings and networks that were their due, and will remain their due for the rest of their lives.

    Whatever exists outside that bubble was of no concern to them when they were in the privilege incubator, and is of no concern when they became adults (though still referred almost forever as ‘boys’).

    In that sense it’s not so much heartless, as thoughtless indifference deliberately and systematically instilled by a privilege maintenance system designed and paid for by the state. Lack of empathy is a bonus feature of the system.

  25. Bushfire Bill – I couldn’t agree with you more. When it comes to the ocean, it is us humans, not sharks, that are the intruders.

  26. AR
    Gravis and Rasmussen are also showing a Trump lead or tie. However the state polling is putting Hillary in the Box position. RCP which is much easier to follow that crazy Nate, is showing Hillary with a certain 237 delegates needing just 33 more and when switched to the no toss ups (ie all the doubtful are allocated), gives Hillary a very comfortable lead.

  27. As far as those over-educated buffoons in Malaysia are concerned – and it is merely a distraction – the comment from one of the dads says it all I guess:
    “City of Kalgoorlie-Boulder council chief executive flew in to support his son Jack and expressed relief at the outcome after the group endured a ‘horrendous’ four days in jail. He criticised Malaysian authorities and the local media over the men’s treatment. ‘It should never have happened, they should never have been put through it and they were made to pay a penalty they didn’t need to or shouldn’t have to………’
    So there you have it………..nine indulged, arrogant, pricks, victims of those Malaysian bastards – according to one of the dad’s comments.
    And the media thinks that all the scum comes from the bottom of the barrel…..

  29. LaborHerald: “I never imagined that the day would come that we would be a country who no longer makes motor vehicles.” @billshortenmp #auspol

    LaborHerald: “It is a sad day for literally 100s & 100s of automotive workers… who face losing their jobs over the next 12 months” @billshortenmp

    LaborHerald: “What we don’t need is a Liberal govt who treats manufacturing & manufacturing jobs as a 2nd class industry in this country.” @billshortenmp

  30. Guytaur

    President Barack Obama’s approval rating hit 55 percent in a new CNN/ORC poll out today, which is the highest mark since his second term began.

    It is difficult to know how it will pan out, but the hurricane that is about to paste Florida will affect the election. Some are noting that it could negatively affect democrat turnout -as most of the likely affected areas are democrat. It could also give Obama a very high profile in an environment where electioneering will be out of the question.

  31. trog

    I agree. However Clinton does not need Florida to win and I think it will probably go Trump, cyclone or otherwise. However most of the other big states will stick with Clinton.

  33. What the hell could a 27 year old advise about in defence procurement (or anything).

    Well, he was pretty effective in organising his defence against criminal charges in Malaysia.

  36. I’d expect the Democrats to do slightly better than the polls due to “ground game”. The polls of likely voters after all are just estimates of which demographics will turn out at which rates. So if one side gets their people registered and voting, they’ll outdo the polls.

    Obama has given them his excellent campaign operations now he no longer needs them. Romney tried to copy this in 2012 but failed, is the Trump campaign doing this or just doing rallies to a small group of supporters?

  38. I was corrected on this by TPOF about two pages ago

    Sorry, didn’t see the original correction.

    Florida has the highest chance of tipping the election according to fivethirtyeight

    Agree. Florida is (as always) important. If Clinton wins it, we can basically call the election at that point. If Trump wins it, he stays in with a chance and we’ll be in for a long election night where the Western 3/4ths of the country actually matters.

    I’m thinking Clinton will take it, however the hurricane will be a real wildcard. The current forecast has it holding just offshore, which might be enough to spare the state from any major wind damage (though I’d still expect severe flooding). If that happens, probably it’ll all be cleaned up and forgotten by election day.

  39. The media in Canberra like elsewhere live in a bubble, influenced by their own sense of self importance and the influence of advertisers. The ABC and Canberra Times have plenty to say on issues being promoted by the ACT Liberals for the election tomorrow week.

    Labor meanwhile seems to be generally ignoring the MSM to get its message across and going directly to the voters. My letter box yesterday had a leaflet on their health policy (probably delivered by the postie) where they tie the ACT Liberals to their Federal counterparts and raise the spectre of privatising hospitals. A local “mediscare” campaign if you like. So far the ABC and Canberra Times have no mention of this.

  41. Trog
    I know what Nate says but I am afraid I basically call his analysis BS. Far too complicated and subjective. He adjusts this and that for no apparent reason and is still using June polling in his weightings.

    However RCP comes up with pretty much the SAME answers but without all the pretend science. Currently they are allocating pretty much all the swing states to Clinton (including Florida). The ones given to Trump are Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Arizona, but still leaves Clinton way ahead. If she loses Florida – which is possible given the storm, she still has 293 delegates. She would need to lose both North Carolina and Minnesota not to win overall. Mind you there is almost no polling in Minnesota but Clinton seems comfortably ahead in North Carolina

  43. Tony_Burke: If we could get a good enough price I’d happily see the nation sell @SenPaterson to pay down debt.
    #Auspol #BluePoles

  46. The Hurricane will not have a huge effect on the election. A few weeks to recover will mean voters will be seeing who works to help them recover and still able to go vote.

    It may mean queues in areas not battered that still have polling stations will be long. For Florida long queues are something voters are used to.

  47. Turnbull just flashed by on ABC24 talking about the bank proposed ‘Banking Tribunal’. I missed most of it but guess it went something like this:

    I have been consulting with ministers about the speedy establishment of the Banking Tribunal. So far on advice from the Attorney-General we will need three people to conduct hearings.

    I expect to be able to say more when the banks get back to me with their plan/advice. (Mal exit left)

  48. trog sorrenson @ #135 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 12:45 pm

    DTT
    Florida has the highest chance of tipping the election according to fivethirtyeight – and they rate it marginal Clinton
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    That is largely because it has the biggest pool of electoral college votes by far of all the undecided states, so if it is declared relatively early on the night it is more likely than other states to push Clinton over the 270 line.

    For Trump, Florida is a must win, not so for Clinton.

    To win Trump must take all the undecided states plus one of Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota all of which are rated more than 80% to Clinton.

  49. CTar1

    From the speed of Turnbull’s ‘decision’ it is obvious, as we all knew, that he was going to instigate a Tribunal. The bankers’ farcical committee was only to set up the ‘context’.
    I wonder what will go wrong. 😉

  50. As deeply fascinating as it is, isn’t there a separate thread for discussion of the American election and Clinton’s failing health?

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