BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The Track is back, as Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition.

The only new poll this week was the usual fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research, which moved a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferrred, leaving Labor’s lead at 51-49. On the primary vote, the Coalition was up one to 40%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 8%, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 3%. However, the big news so far as this post is concerned is the post-election return of BludgerTrack, which opens its account with 17 data points to work from – three from Newspoll, and 14 from Essential Research.

bt2019-2016-10-05

Each pollster is bias-adjusted based on the difference between the election result and a trend measure of their voting intention numbers at that time, with the results halved to account for the likelihood that they will tweak their methodology rather than persist in their existing errors. On this basis, the adjustments for Newspoll are +0.0% for the Coalition, 0.2% for Labor and +0.0% for the Greens, while those for Essential Research are respectively -0.7%, +0.5% and -0.1%. For the time being, results are being weighted according to a formula that gives each pollster equal weight over the full course of the present term, so that the more prolific a pollster is, the less weight its polls will be given. On this basis, the weighting for a single Essential poll is currently 0.071, while a Newspoll gets one-third.

This means the dominant data point so far as the current reading is concerned is last week’s Newspoll, which was published as 52-48 to Labor, but came out at 52.7-47.3 after 2016 election preferences were applied to the bias-adjusted primary vote. This is why the current BludgerTrack reading is a little more favourable to Labor than you might expect, given the run of recent polling. Preferences are allocated according to the results of the July election, there presently being no other option, but I will eventually move to a method that splits the difference between previous election preferences and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences, if and when Ispos and ReachTEL provide enough such data to make it worthwhile. Such an approach would have been almost perfectly accurate at the recent election, although the previous election method has generally performed better in the past. The leadership results go back to the start of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in mid-September last year – note that no change is recorded in the “last week” column at this point, owing to the lack of new results this week.

Further poll stuff:

• After numerous polls finding the public favouring a referendum to solve the same-sex marriage question, a follow-up result from last week’s Newspoll found 48% favouring a “politicians decide&148; options versus 39% for a plebiscite in February. This week’s Essential Research gave respondents an option between “the government should agree to a vote in parliament” and “the Labor Party, Greens and Xenophon Team should agree to a plebiscite”, with respective results of 53% and 24%.

• Both pollsters also asked how they would vote in a referendum, with Newspoll finding 62% to 32% in favour of yes, and Essential coming in at 58% to 28%. Essential also found 49% believed such a vote should be binding on parliament, with 26% preferring the alternative option of leaving parliamentarians with a free vote.

• Essential posed a series of questions on the National Broadband Network, which found 42% favouring “the Labor plan” and 27% “the Liberal government’s plan”; only 22% saying the NBN would “adequately meet Australia’s future Internet requirements”, with 47% saying it wouldn’t; and 88% agreeing the internet was “becoming an essential service”, with only 7% disagreeing.

• Fifty per cent rated the level of immigration to Australia over the past 10 years as too high, 12% as too low and 28% as about right, while 44% opposed the recently announced increase in the annual refugee intake, with 39% supportive. Relatedly, Essential recently released widely publicised results on Muslim immigration and Pauline Hanson from its survey of July 27 to August 1. This found 49% supporting a ban on Muslim immigration versus 40% opposed, and strong majorities supporting the propositions that Hanson was “speaking for a lot of ordinary Australians” (62% to 30%) and “talks about issues other politicians too scared to tackle” (65% to 28%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,021 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. I hope Hillary Clinton has promised Bernie Sanders a position in her Administration…should she get to form one (I don’t want to put a jinx on her ; ) )

  2. Boerwar, the standard path for navigating such disappointments is denial, anger, grief, acceptance. You seem stuck in the first phase 🙂

  3. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for a bumper edition. I don’t know how you manage to get that all done every morning, but I’m glad you do. 🙂

  4. TPOF

    Thanks for the clarification. However, it was only one example that I plucked out – there were numerous ones where it seemed to me the author was deliberately presenting information which was favourable to Clinton as if it wasn’t.

    Regardless, my main point was the strategic one – Trump has maxed out his demographic, Hillary is only starting to engage with her’s.

    She doesn’t have to have enthusiastic voters, she just needs to get people to vote.

    Ironically, the better Trump polls the more likely it is that Democrat leaning voters will turn up.

    I’m also speculating that Trump’s ‘it’s all rigged against me’ line may actually deter some of his demographic from voting. If you believe the system is rigged, then your vote really is pointless, so why bother?

  5. Aha! I realise I’ve mixed up the ideas of being a ‘registered Republican/Democrat’ with being registered to vote. My bad.

  6. This article is a good one:

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/i-dont-like-hillary-clinton-or-the-democratic-party–im-voting-for-them-anyway-20161006-grwvo0.html

    I don’t agree with her about Hillary Clinton, but it argues the case, which I would have thought self-evident, about why genuine Sanders supporters who won’t vote for Clinton are mad. The anecdote of her experience outside the Trump rally is telling when compared to the rise of Hitler, Mussolini and other supremacist demagogues.

  7. Yesterday I did pre-poll voting at the Tuggeranong station in the ACT election. It’s easy to tell that the Liberals have far more money to spend on advertising than Labor. That’s no doubt helped by money from ClubsACT and a $95,000 donation from an ambulance chasing lawyer. On the other hand, Labor seems to have a lot more people on the ground door knocking if my experience is any guide. So far four Labor people, including one candidate, have come to my place and nobody from the Liberals. This was reflected in handing out how-to-vote cards – Liberals had many more signs but only two people compared to five Labor people including one candidate.

  8. Zoomster at 9.35

    Not one of McGeough’s clearer articles, I would agree. Your speculation might be right, but who knows. I think the underlying thesis of the article, that Trump’s support is numerically fixed while Clinton’s fluctuates is a pretty good one.

  9. Citizen,
    Your position is reflected on the ground across Australia.

    The Liberals haven’t quite figured out what to do about it, especially as, with the 2 Tribes at war in the Liberal Party, a lot of the people who would normally hand out for them are staying away in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s attempt to, as a Liberal observer noted just yesterday, become CEO of Liberal Party Inc.

    It’s why the Conservatives are mounting a rearguard action by attempting to recruit in the Churches (forgetting, of course, how many Australian Catholics support the Labor Party still).

    It is also why the upcoming NSW State Conference will be a spectacle, as the Conservatives attempt to give more power to the ‘grass roots’, ie their supporters, and the ‘Moderates’, ie the Turnbull/Photios/Zimmerman cabal try to stave them off. : )

  10. c@tmomma @ #62 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 10:03 am

    Citizen,
    Your position is reflected on the ground across Australia.
    The Liberals haven’t quite figured out what to do about it, especially as, with the 2 Tribes at war in the Liberal Party, a lot of the people who would normally hand out for them are staying away in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s attempt to, as a Liberal observer noted just yesterday, become CEO of Liberal Party Inc.
    It’s why the Conservatives are mounting a rearguard action by attempting to recruit in the Churches (forgetting, of course, how many Australian Catholics support the Labor Party still).
    It is also why the upcoming NSW State Conference will be a spectacle, as the Conservatives attempt to give more power to the ‘grass roots’, ie their supporters, and the ‘Moderates’, ie the Turnbull/Photios/Zimmerman cabal try to stave them off. : )

    I don’t think they would be trying to recruit Catholics or any mainstream denomination. The target group is the fundy nutters.

  11. And there I was thinking Justin Gleeson was related to Murray Gleeson. : )

    He probably is! The Gleeson’s are networkers, and very successful. This is despite being Catholic, when being a Catholic meant starting behind the rest of the field.

    My class at St Pats was very focused on the Labor side of politics and social issues, but always pretty staunch Catholics. The Fergusons were another example.

    I can’t really remember too much furious debate about political issues as such. I had enough trouble surviving as the youngest kid in the class. There wasn’t much time to worry about the loftier planes of discourse.

    But they went on to “do well”, most of them anyway: doctors, lawyers, intellectual priests etc. The Sidotis also made a name for themselves in the human rights and social areas, from a “Catholic action” angle.

    The “Catholic” thing was never my bag, however. Perhaps I should have pretended? I might have made Solicitor-General if I had (just kidding). After getting my own law degree, I was so terrified at the thought of having to visit a prisoner in the cells after losing his case, I never practiced. John Mortimer (the creator of “Horace Rumpole”) once wrote that if you can’t look a client in the eye and tell him you were off to dinner at Rockpool, while he would be eating porridge at Long Bay for 10-15 years – and could he please make sure the bill was paid promptly and in full? – then a life of practicing law was probably not for you. It’s a tough game, which I doubt Brandis has never really experienced on his way to his Kellogs Cornflakes packet “Queens Counsel” status.

    The extremely tall John Brogden was another St. Pat’s alumni, who went over to the “dark side” as far as politics was concerned. I met him once, told him I’d never vote for him (pleasantly, more in banter than in earnest) and when he found I lived in the very Liberal Dover Heights he laughed and said, “I don’t give a shit!”. Brogden has, however, gone on to better things after he was bullied by his own party into attempting suicide.

    Tom Kenneally, author of Schindler’sArk and other minor publications, has always figured high in the St.Pat’s Labor side of things too (from his multi-million dollar eyrie in Whale Beach – and good on him for that). I met him the same night I met Brogden, but he wasn’t quite as tall, more gnome-like. Our lives were connected by our love for daughters of the Curran family, also of Strathfield, Tom of the elder, me of the younger, years later. But I didn’t write a book about my devotion. Tom’s object of adoration became a nun, and he priest (for a while at least). My own flame for Curran girls petered out when Mr Curran chucked me out of a party I had crashed at Chateau Curran, along with a few other raggedy sixth-form mates. We of the Curran salon des refuses went back to my house to plot revenge. We would have a bigger and better party than the Currans. Everyone would be invited eept the Currans. And then… the brilliant inspiration popped into my head: we would put the younger Curran daughter on top of the list of invitees. She couldn’t not come, so she turned up, exquisitely apologetic for her father’s cack-handedness at doorman duties. But it was never the same after that. I met another beautiful blonde that night anyway, who had already deviated my affections before the Currans turned up, with Mr Curran checking there was no alcohol anywhere in sight. The alcohol was well-hidden out in the front garden. You could only tell it had been smuggled in when people started falling over and, as its effects really took hold, someone got thrown through our front fence. The party was thus a success. But our hearts were sure fickle at 17.

  12. This story got a mention recently on PB being portrayed as a privatisation bid. It isn’t as Tripple Zero Emergency Services is already operated by a company – Telstra.

    Government looks for new operator for ‘enhanced’ Triple Zero emergency service

    A modern Triple Zero Emergency Call Service utilising the latest technologies will be implemented nationally, with the federal government calling for expressions of interest for operators to take over the contract to provide “enhanced” services.
    Telstra, which operates the national emergency service, will have to submit a tender to continue, as the government seeks an operator to provide “enhanced” services.

    The government called on Thursday for Expressions of Interest following a review of the Triple Zero (000) services, looking at ways to take advantage of new technologies for the provision of “improved” services in the future. The review concluded with a report and implementation plan published earlier this year.

    The government is now seeking an operator for the service who can implement an IP-based service that can “keep pace with the rapidly changing social and technological environment”.

    A modern Triple Zero Emergency Call Service utilising the latest technologies will be implemented nationally, with the federal government calling for expressions of interest for operators to take over the contract to provide “enhanced” services.
    Telstra, which operates the national emergency service, will have to submit a tender to continue, as the government seeks an operator to provide “enhanced” services.

    The government called on Thursday for Expressions of Interest following a review of the Triple Zero (000) services, looking at ways to take advantage of new technologies for the provision of “improved” services in the future. The review concluded with a report and implementation plan published earlier this year.

    The government is now seeking an operator for the service who can implement an IP-based service that can “keep pace with the rapidly changing social and technological environment”.


    http://www.itwire.com/telecoms-and-nbn/75119-government-looks-for-new-operator-for-%E2%80%98enhanced%E2%80%99-triple-zero-emergency-service.html

    One key new requirement is: “Tender documents just issued ask operators to identify a solution to enable location co-ordinates for emergency calls from mobile services.”

  13. Good Morning

    Just caught the end o Frydenberg at Energy presser.

    Looked like he was at a wake. From what I heard I think it may be the wake of the Climate Denier 🙂

  14. What a crock –

    Civil celebrants who oppose same-sex marriage would be allowed to refuse to officiate gay weddings under Attorney-General George Brandis’ vision for marriage equality in Australia.

    ‘Celebrants, religous or civil, are not obliged to ‘marry’ anyone.

  15. @ Ctar – you are not exactly correct.

    You can refuse service, employment etc to people for no reason, or a terrible reason. As long as it is not a sexist, racist, homophic reason.

    You can have a bakery and refuse to sell bread to a particular person if you like.

    But you can’t have a sign out the front that says “we do not serve gays”.

    Brandis is attempting to use marriage equality legalise discrimination by public servants.

    Labor, The Greens and NXT are not stupid. They will oppose this.

  16. DavidLeyonhjelm: Doubt there’ll be many #WSW fans at Rebecca Wilson’s funeral. #innocentlivesdamaged fourfourtwo.com/au/news/fan-fu…

    I hope he gets voted out of the Senate at the next election.

  17. PoliticsFairfax: Same-sex marriage: George Brandis flags exemptions for civil celebrants, extra funds for mental health smh.com.au/federal-politi… #auspol

    https://twitter.com/politicsfairfax/status/784168178804940800

    What a farce! Absolving civil celebrants won’t placate the wowsers who just.don’t.think.gays.should.get.married. It will only encourage them.

    And as for more money for mental health… it wouldn’t be necessary if additional mental health issues weren’t caused by the Plebiscite in the first place. so let’s not have any of that “We welcome more money for mental health under any circumstances” tripe (which I am sure Brandis will find some stooge to utter).

    More money for mental health reminds me of an over-prescribing doctor who gives you pills, then pills to counteract the original pills, then more pills to take the edge of the side-effects of all the other pills. Just keep pushing those pills down our throats, and maybe we’ll get better. Or maybe we’ll need emergency surgery because of all the pills. I bet Dr. Brandis knows a good surgeon who could do the job.

    Just get on with it. None of this would be necessary if Turnbull simply woke up one morning and realized that he is Prime Minister, not Tony Abbott, that support for the plebiscite evaporated as soon as the public saw how much it would cost, and that it wouldn’t be binding on anyone, anyway. What is the point of being PM if you can’t get anything done? What should have been a second-order issue- emotional, feel-good, but hardly vital to the future of the nation – has turned into a Frankenstein’s Monster that is ripping government and governance apart (not to mention it’s potential for lasting damage to our social fabric). What was the opportunity to do some good has become a hulking vessel of wrath.

    F_A_R_C_E is the appropriate word, not only for the schemozzle that the Plebiscite has become, but for this government, its leader, and its “leadership group”.

    Turnbull has no guts, and without guts there is no glory. That’s what he has become: an inglorious loser, presiding over an ever-shrinking retinue of other losers, misfits and misanthropes.

  18. When I saw the post by ‘Martha Farquhar’ I initially read the name as ‘Murray Farquhar’, ex NSW Chief Stipendary Magistrate.

    Now that was when we had some colourful identities gracing the bench.

  19. Shellbell it seems the proper way to deal with Heydon at the TURC involves the throwing of paint:

    The fear many Judges share – certainly at first instance – is the prospect of litigants openly ignoring their directions or rudely rejecting their decisions. This happened in Wilson v The Prothonotary. [6] The plaintiff had filed a Statement of Claim in the Supreme Court. The defendants asked the late Acting Justice Brian Murray to strike out the Statement of Claim. On 5 September 1997, his Honour acceded to the defendants’ request and ordered that the proceedings be dismissed with costs. The Judge was in the process of publishing his reasons when Mr Wilson threw two bags of paint, one of which struck his Honour and splashed yellow paint over him. The second bag landed between the Judge’s Associate and the Court Reporter, splashing paint on them as well.

    Wood CJ at CL made a declaration that the plaintiff was guilty of contempt. He was sentenced to a fixed term of imprisonment of two years. [7] In the Court of Appeal, [8] Meagher JA indicated that he would dismiss the appeal with costs. The majority (Sheller and Heydon JJA) extended leniency to Mr Wilson and allowed the appeal against sentence. The original sentences were quashed and Mr Wilson, was in effect, released from custody on the day when the judgment of the Court of Appeal was delivered. He had served three months and twenty days.

  20. ‘I’m on holidays in Nth QLD. Just read Friday’s paper edition of the Courier Mail. Not one mention of the Bradis saga.’

    Yeah the fix is definitely on.
    Not like it’s a major matter like a declared $1,600 donation.

    The media in this country is beyond pathetic.

  21. UKIP seem like a nice bunch of people:

    Steven Woolfe, a leading member of the European Parliament from the UK Independence Party (UKIP), is recovering in hospital following an “altercation” during a party room meeting.

    Mr Woolfe collapsed and lost consciousness outside the European Union legislature chamber after leaving a voting session, a parliamentary official said.

    Pictures showed him sprawled and unconscious, still clutching a briefcase on a walkway in the parliament building.

    “I deeply regret that following an altercation that took place at a meeting of UKIP MEPs this morning that Steven Woolfe subsequently collapsed and was taken to hospital,” UKIP leader Nigel Farage said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-06/ukip-mep-in-hospital-after-party-meeting-'altercation'/7911348

  22. Had a positive telco customer service experience. Our work telephone setup was an old (about 7 yrs) Optus voip setup and one of the ATAs ( boxes to plug analogue phones into) gave up the ghost late in the afternoon so we lost 2 of our 6 lines. Contacted Optus who arranged for a technician to attend first thing the next day and diverted the lines to mobiles. Technician arrived promptly at opening time and decided immediately to replace the whole setup as the equipment was so old, warned me that the change might leave me without phones for a couple of hours while they changed the configurations at their end, went and got the new equipment, installed it and had everything up and running in just over an hour. I was for once happy with the service.

  23. ctar1 @ #69 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 10:22 am

    What a crock –

    Civil celebrants who oppose same-sex marriage would be allowed to refuse to officiate gay weddings under Attorney-General George Brandis’ vision for marriage equality in Australia.

    ‘Celebrants, religous or civil, are not obliged to ‘marry’ anyone.

    I have, upon reading the above, conjured up a nightmare scene in which various celebrants, covered in rice and confetti are struggling to get out from under Mr Geo. Brandis. Not pretty. I need some fresh air and sunshine.
    This not a criticism of your post. I am, in truth, mightily dismayed at the behaviour of Mr. Brandis (simply put, one of many equal dickheads).

  24. ctar1 @ #69 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 10:22 am

    What a crock –

    Civil celebrants who oppose same-sex marriage would be allowed to refuse to officiate gay weddings under Attorney-General George Brandis’ vision for marriage equality in Australia.

    ‘Celebrants, religous or civil, are not obliged to ‘marry’ anyone.

    Considerable banging on about the ‘wedding cake’ example on 774 Melbourne.
    I can’t recall ever ordering a wedding cake, but would there be any necessity to divulge just who was marrying who when ordering one?
    Seems yet another Furphy to me.

  25. ctar1 @ #81 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 10:42 am

    What a turkey:

    DavidLeyonhjelm: Doubt there’ll be many #WSW fans at Rebecca Wilson’s funeral.

    Where do people like Mr David Leyonhjelm learn to be the way they are.
    In the current series of books I am reading the said current take on Psychopaths is that there is spectrum as in other mental conditions. The ultimate (?) being the emotion free, pitiless, murderous “Hanibal Lecter” type. Where our hero, Leyonhjelm fits into this is beyond me.
    In the light of the sad new. I and my household are sad upon Rebecca Wilson’s passing and wish her family and friends well in their grief and mourning.

  26. political_alert: Shadow Minister for Small Business and Financial Services @SenKatyG will hold a doorstop in Canberra at 11:15am #auspol

  27. political_alert: Greens Leader @RichardDiNatale will respond to comments by the PM & Environment Minister on renewable energy at 11:30am, Melbourne #auspol

  28. I can’t recall ever ordering a wedding cake, but would there be any necessity to divulge just who was marrying who when ordering one?

    I guess it’d be pretty obvious if the decoration requested was: “Nicholas & Barry, Eternal Love.”

  29. ‘Celebrants, religous or civil, are not obliged to ‘marry’ anyone.

    For example, Catholic Priests are not now compelled to marry divorced persons. Reasonable exemptions should apply. That doesn’t extend to comercial operators like caterers or cake shops, any more than they should be allowed to decline service to black people.

  30. As others have commented, the weirdest thing about Jack Walker is that he is a 27 year old “adviser” in Pyne’s office. What the hell could a 27 year old advise about in defence procurement (or anything). Oh, he once worked for Photios. Obviously Photios planted one of his lads in Pyne’s office for future use. No wonder so many ministerial offices seem to chaotic and come up with such stupid ideas.

  31. steve777 @ #95 Friday, October 7, 2016 at 11:07 am

    ‘Celebrants, religous or civil, are not obliged to ‘marry’ anyone.
    For example, Catholic Priests are not now compelled to marry divorced persons. Reasonable exemptions should apply. That doesn’t extend to comercial operators like caterers or cake shops, any more than they should be allowed to decline service to black people.

    My proposal.
    All registered marriage celebrants must have available to the public what it is and is not that they would be prepared to preside over. Then they can see the reverse effect of the general public deciding to not avail themselves of their services. This would include religious celebrants as well.

  32. So even I didn’t believe that there would be an almost entire news blackout on any mention of our esteemed Attorney General, who not only has been shown to have misled Parliament, but also has been shown to have not been (allegedly) entirely truthful about claims regarding ‘contemporaneous’ notes taken at a certain meeting.

    Now I expect the ABC to do as it’s told, and continue its new found obsession with the dangers of renewables. B
    Likewise News Ltd. But The Guardian?

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