Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016

Aggregated Newspoll breakdowns find nothing too remarkable going on beneath the surface of the three polls it has published since the election.

The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016”

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  5. Gary,

    We Victorians felt no pain after about 5.30pm on Saturday. There was an awful lot of sipping from the keg of victory going on thereafter.

  8. BK
    Conratulations on the anniversary and best wishes with putting Xenophon in his place. I must admit that I was a bit surprised at his dopey foray into renewables ‘policy’.

  10. I don’t barrack for the Swannies. Some one has to stand up for truth, justice and the Australian way of life.

    I am actually aware of that but you are behaving like a jilted Swan supporter. Time to move on.

  12. C@tm
    You can’t argue on the facts. They are just too stark.
    You will just have to go for arguing on first principles.
    One such principle that might appeal to you would be that ‘the umpires did an excellent job because they were AFL umpires’.

  16. Guytaur, you’re still incorrect re 3D printers at the local dentist, some of the bigger dental LABS are using them for models/ortho work though.

  18. VP

    I said like in local dentists. I did not say the 3d printer itself was at the local dentist. However that might not be true by now.

    Its like how you can get glasses from your local optometrist.
    They still send away for the prescription.
    So you are right I am wrong in the very specific manufacture in the local dentist.

  22. Boerwar

    One other problem might be that the lines of ‘affectedness’ are so exact and look as if they’re drawn by a texta. Which of course they may be, but I’d like more evidence, myself.
    (Don’t forget I often post out of interest or topicality, rather than belief!)

  23. Don’t worry Boerwar, you’ll get over the loss. It hurts for a while but you’ll feel happiness again in the not so distant future.

    After a few decades. Diehard fans have very loooooong memories.

  25. At the start of the game I would have been happy for either team to win. By the end of the game I knew that, as a footie fan expecting to see a fair contest with the best team winning, I had been comprehensively dudded.

  27. Why worry the Swans, GWS, Brisbane, Gold coast, have been the beneficiary of a crooked rigged comp & draft for years now, the Swans have lost and the other clubs are in a bit of trouble do you think the AFL is not going to keep on going,while other Melbourne clubs suffer

  29. john ryan @ #177 Monday, October 3, 2016 at 3:24 pm

    Why worry the Swans, GWS, Brisbane, Gold coast, have been the beneficiary of a crooked rigged comp & draft for years now, the Swans have lost and the other clubs are in a bit of trouble do you think the AFL is not going to keep on going,while other Melbourne clubs suffer

    The clubs you mention are simply the AFLs attempt to metastasise into other states where it is not really wanted.

  31. Boerwar

    You still on about the GF? I have watched the game four times. The Bulldogs won it because as they have done in previous games, they wore out the other side who could not run out the game. Simple as that. Why are you so determined to embarrass yourself?

  33. We don’t have a satisfactory method of storing the waste AND the waste is significant.

    I wonder if maybe the waste could continue to be used for power generation. Are there theoretical barriers to capturing the lingering background radiation given off by a large quantity of nuclear waste, focusing it into a much smaller area, and using that energy to produce electricity?

    Now if we were in some dire situation where there were no alternatives, then perhaps nuclear should be a consideration, but I don’t think we are. Do you?

    Generally yes, considering where global average temperatures are predicted to be by 2100. And the fact that we’ve got a PM who now seems bent on continuing Abbott’s “coal is good for humanity” line.

    We need to get off of fossil fuels, and sooner rather than later. Wind isn’t going to solve that problem (impractical to harness enough to meet demand). Solar might, but requires a storage infrastructure that probably decades away from existing. Hydro, geothermal, and other clean/renewable/sustainable options have the same problem as wind.

    Fusion power would be a near-ideal solution, but is at least billions of dollars and decades away still. That pretty much leaves nuclear, which is available today, doesn’t generate greenhouse gas emissions, and can be deployed in capacities sufficient to meet the entirety of our current demands. Would I take the statistical (statistically very small, that is) risk of a meltdown and the open question of how to deal with the spent nuclear waste, if doing so meant that in 5-10 years (when the nuclear plants start coming online) we could immediately close down all coal/gas fired power-plants? Absolutely.

    We’v painted ourselves into a corner where large-scale disastrous things are virtually guaranteed to happen over the next 100 years. Risking a different but much less likely sort of large-scale disaster seems a reasonable trade-off if it will significantly mitigate or fully prevent some of the disasters that we know are coming if we continue burning fossil fuels.

  35. mytym mytym @ #148 Monday, October 3, 2016 at 1:31 pm

    Now if we were in some dire situation where there were no alternatives, then perhaps nuclear should be a consideration, but I don’t think we are. Do you?

    Yes. Unless we stop burning coal for electricity pretty much immediately, we are going to see global warming of more than 4 degrees – perhaps even up to 7 degrees. This would be utterly catastrophic. Nuclear is the best and most cost-effective alternative to coal for large scale electricity production. We could and should be using nuclear to replace coal now wherever possible, and not waiting and hoping for the cost of renewables to fall. By the time this happens on a large enough scale to replace coal it may be too late.

    And yes, I know lots of people here will claim “renewables will soon be cheaper than coal” – they always do, and they are quite simply wrong. The cost of continuing to burn coal in the thousands of existing coal-fired generation plants in countries like India and China is going to become pretty close to nil as the cost of coal continues to plummet, and also as these countries who used to import coal to eke out their own reserves no longer bother – they are increasingly willing to burn up their local reserves because they know these will soon be worthless anyway.

    And before anyone brings up the “nuclear proliferation” argument , it is worth pointing out that the countries who would benefit most from replacing coal with nuclear are already nuclear states.

  36. V
    The reason I still discuss this is because there are still people who wish to discuss it. The other 99% of Bludgers are doing the old scroll wheel.
    It does not matter how many times you watch the GF.
    This will not change the basic fact of the game: that there is absolutely no way that the Swans were due only 4 free kicks in three and a half quarters of football.
    In fact I have never heard of a team getting only 4 free kicks in three and a half quarters of football.

  37. Ben Eltham
    Ben Eltham – ‏@beneltham

    Hearing reports a large number of complaints have been made about Chris Uhlmann’s blackout coverage
    7:59 PM – 2 Oct 2016
    34 RETWEETS44 LIKES

  40. ctar1 @ #184 Monday, October 3, 2016 at 4:12 pm

    Royal Commission NOW!

    CommInsure ignores findings of police and coroner, refuses life insurance payout

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-03/comminsure-ignored-coroner-findings-refused-life-insurance-pay/7898024

    Even the exclusion for suicide is improper and discriminates against people who may take out a policy when well and later succumb to a mental illness and take their life. They are at the time ‘not of sound mind’ through no fault of their own any more than if they had any other physical illness that killed them.

  41. Boerwar

    Free kick count ended at 8 for Sydney and 20 for Dogs. There were a couple of free kicks that Sydney should have been awarded. Would have made no difference to result. Also, goal disallowed for Dogs would have been a goal in any other game. That decision was shit. Further, Sydney lost big time in the contested possessions. This is where they lost the game. I dont barrack for either team, but the Swans,had too many passengers. The dogs had great contributions evenly by all players. Josh Kennedy was player who stood up for Sydney. It wasnt enough. you are embarrassing yourself in my view.

  44. As expected, Josh Frydenberg’s admission that SA lost power because a big storm destroyed large chunks of power infrastructure was buried under Grand Final fever, filed at the bottom of page 13 under “boring but important”. It would have escaped the notice of most of the punters. Trash successfully dumped.

  45. A R

    If you’re thinking in 5-10 year terms, then that’s far too short a time line when considering nuclear.

    The waste remains dangerously radioactive for millenia – not thousands of years, but tens of thousands of years.

    Civilisations rise and fall in shorter time spans than that, and, for even the most well documented and studied of them, crucial information is lost.

    The idea that we can blithely store materials safely for tens of thousands of years and it will all be OK doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

    I always imagine a future archaeologist, say ten thousand years from now, saying, “Something really precious must be stored here, look at the effort they went to secure it.”

    That to one side, I find it interesting that virtually no one in a position to do so (those with money to invest, for starters) is lobbying for nuclear in Australia, whereas there are plenty lobbying for other renewables – which suggests that nuclear (at least in this country) is not a sound investment.

  46. Player One

    And before anyone brings up the “nuclear proliferation” argument , it is worth pointing out that the countries who would benefit most from replacing coal with nuclear are already nuclear states.

    An interesting thought.

  48. Put this in your pipe and smoke it, ‘Christian’ Porter.

    Listening to Porter’s Press Club speech, there were a lot of big numbers designed to let our imaginations run wild. $4.8tn is a big number – so big, most struggle to imagine it. That’s the number the minister highlighted as the lifelong cost of welfare.

    The other big number the government uses a lot is $160bn. That’s the yearly cost of welfare payments in Australia. And if you ask what those big numbers pay for, most people imagine it is for people who are unemployed. But they are wrong. The truth is that people who are unemployed account for just 7% of this spend. These payments are barely keeping up with inflation, and spending on them halved as a proportion of GDP between 1995 and 2012.

    The largest payment class of the $4.8tn – a 60-year future prediction based on actuarial assumptions – is the age pension, because we safely predict people will grow older and increase as a proportion of the whole population. This is predicted to be the fastest growth in costs. The next largest class is family payments – it is safe to predict that people will continue to have children.
    …
    Facts in a debate about disadvantaged groups are important. Newstart is too low and is stopping people from getting into paid work more quickly. The Henry Tax Panel, the OECD, business groups and our members all agree. The base payment of $38 per day leaves people struggling to meet minimum costs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/03/unemployed-people-need-money-to-live-on-thats-a-fact-mr-porter-not-hard-to-imagine?CMP=share_btn_tw

  49. V

    I knew that the free kick ended at 20/8. I have never disputed that fact.

    My view is that umpies started getting very nervous on 4 free kicks in three and a half quarters so they slipped in a few late evener uppers – after the game had already been decided by their four to one ratio during the course of the game.

    There is no way that the Dogs committed the same number of sins in the last 15 minutes that they had committed in the previous 85 minutes.

    It got so that when the whistle blew the swans and the dogs players just automatically headed towards the Doggies’ end of the field.

  50. And all Morrison wanted to talk about was sport. Far more important than his financial responsibilities, obviously.

    Gross government debt, according to the final budget outcome documents, rose to $420.4bn, or 25.5% of GDP, in June 2016. This is at the highest since 1971-72 when the Vietnam war effort was being funded.

    Government debt is growing at a pace that will no doubt be the focus of the credit ratings agencies. Unless there is some miracle in terms of a growth spurt that fuels an unexpected windfall revenue gain to the government, further large budget deficits are likely in the near term, as are further increases in government debt.

    It is little wonder Morrison and Cormann were nowhere to be seen when the budget outcome document popped up in the Treasury website on Friday afternoon. Interestingly Morrison did some media interviews that day – but only to talk about the Cronulla Sharks being in the football grand final. There were none on the budget.

    Unfortunately, this is economic management 2016 style, under the watch of Scott Morrison. It is not a good look when the deficit continues to grow and government debt is rising at a rapid pace. The credit ratings agencies are no doubt circling, looking to downgrade Australia’s credit rating. If the policy approach to the budget deficit is to bury important news on a Friday afternoon and not talk about it, the downgrade seems assured.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/03/credit-downgrade-assured-if-coalition-keeps-hiding-from-its-debt-and-deficit-disaster?CMP=share_btn_tw

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