Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 72 of 75
1 … 71 72 73 … 75

  3. Victoria
    Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 10:15 am
    I had linked it last night.

    Yeah. I saw you had posted it last night. It was a good read then.

  5. Off to the High Court for Bookcase. He has no problem wasting more of our $$ in his pursuit to hide his business from his employers.

  7. lizzie @ #3546 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 9:51 am

    Bemused
    Now that is a revelation on the background of the CFA ‘troubles’. Thanks for posting.

    I got wind of it from a union official who was with me handing out HTVs on election day. I have not commented up until now as the details were a bit sketchy and I only had one source. Now it is out there for all to see. Garrett has done a Mundine.

  11. http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Essential-Report_160906-1.pdf
    Essential federal poll
    TPP: ALP 52 (+1) L/NP 48 (-1)
    Primaries: L/NP 39 (-1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 10 (0) NXT 3 (-1) ON 5 OTH 6
    First Essential polling of One Nationa as a seperately catagory. The combined “Other” was 10% last time.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/09/06/essential-the-no-trust-edition/
    Sep 6, 2016
    Essential: who do you trust — and why Malcolm won’t disappoint us further
    The Turnbull government is unlikely to further disappoint voters because it’s already dashed hopes of better government. And who do you trust among our major institutions?
    Bernard Keane — Politics Editor

  12. bemused

    No surprise to me regarding LNP Feds with CFA.

    What did surprise me was Senator Malcolm Roberts sounding like he was going to support the unions. Basically saying its all a media beat up. I guess the Senator must have stumbled on some empirical evidence

  14. Guytaur,
    Haha will Brandis go to the Hight Court?

    You bet! He was already intimating as much on AM this morning. Why shouldn’t he? The taxpayers will foot the bill and he will be able to fight it until the Coalition’s inevitable defeat at the next election.

  15. Brandis will need to get the Full Federal Court to stay (stop the effect of) its judgment which is not guaranteed. If that fails, he will need to run off to the High Court to obtain the stay which is again no certainty.

  17. I was just musing about Bill Shorten’s political move-making on the national political chess board. It seems as though he is prepared to sacrifice a Pawn, ie Sam Dastyari, but cover it, in order to take the King or Queen, ie get Foreign Donation rules in place.

  21. victoria and anyone

    Lately I have been unable to update PB on my mobile, so unfortunately I can no longer read the evening posts. Someone said it was connected with an advert???? Adblock not available on mobiles. Is that right?

  23. vic

    Jane Garrett, if the stuff said about her is true, reminds me of that ALP traitor Wendy Collier aka Grace Collier. Ride to power on the coat-tails of the union movement and then trash ’em seems to be the motto.

    As C@t said above, it’s not as if it’s news that the ALP is the political arm of the Union movement.

  24. ‘Brandis lost FOI appeal.

    Excellent.’

    Yes. On the Government Ministers’ regular 8.05 spot on AM, (if you’re interested), Brandis claimed that he had no idea how much this exercise was costing, but that it was definitely in the public interest.
    No follow up from Michael Brissenden of course, but it might be worth Labor purdsuing.

  27. Shellbell – I assume that if Dreyfus receives costs it has nil effect for the C’wlth. It would just be nominally paid out by the C’wlth and then go directly back to the C’wlth cost received account.

  29. Alice Workman ‏@workmanalice · 3m3 minutes ago

    Labor’s Mark Dreyfus says George Brandis has cost the taxpayer more than $50k challenging his FOI diary request.

  30. Move back to 52 on Essential.

    Wonder if it was mostly caused by the loss of votes on the HoR looking chaotic and incompetent, or was it because the Federal Liberals have closed the flow of money for campaigns on the CFA and rail bridge, and it doesn’t look like the state Libs are willing to foot the bill.

  32. Political Alert ‏@political_alert · 3m3 minutes ago

    Opposition Leader @billshortenmp is in Melbourne today and will hold a doorstop interview at 12pm #auspol

  33. BevanShields: Shorten addressing the media at 12. Will he punt Sam Dastyari? Much speculation #auspol

    I assume that is Gallery and LNP speculation

  34. CTar1
    Dreyfus appeared as counsel in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal leading a junior barrister. He was instructed by private solicitors. The junior and the solicitors will be paid by the Commonwealth.
    I am not sure if the same configuration presented itself for the Full Federal Court.

  35. C@tmomma,
    You and I are the same age.
    Also, thanks to you and Puff for the comments.

    For the HSC, it came in with the Wyndam scheme. The first year did what was then 1st form in 1967. This meant that they did the first Hsc in 1972. I believe I have those dates correct but would be happy to see this confirmed. The probably means that the last leaving certificate was 1970.

  36. Lizzie
    As mentioned above Adblock is available for mobile devices. The one I have inserts a VPN system requiring (fingerprint) signin. It works well which is why I missed the delightful images of our worthy Furrin Minster that others were speaking of.
    I sometimes like to end a sentence wiy either a preposition or a proposition.
    The last is a little fanciful.
    I trust you were able to straighten ou your doctor yesterday.

  38. Shellbell

    Dreyfus appeared as counsel in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal leading a junior barrister. He was instructed by private solicitors. The junior and the solicitors will be paid by the Commonwealth.

    Tks. A long way from the original concept of the AAT!

  39. lizzie @ #3571 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 10:43 am

    victoria and anyone
    Lately I have been unable to update PB on my mobile, so unfortunately I can no longer read the evening posts. Someone said it was connected with an advert???? Adblock not available on mobiles. Is that right?

    Lizzie, when I’ve had that problem it is because I was not signed it. When I sign in it allows me to get up to date. I use safari on an iPhone.

  43. CTar1
    Tribunals set up on the basis of minimal representation and little legal formality rarely remain as such.
    Dreyfus had a second junior barrister for good measure in the Full Federal Court.
    Dreyfus would have come away from the appeal hearing pretty confident based on the judgment. The appeal argument never seemed to take off.

  44. douglas and milko @ #3585 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 11:04 am

    C@tmomma,
    You and I are the same age.
    Also, thanks to you and Puff for the comments.
    For the HSC, it came in with the Wyndam scheme. The first year did what was then 1st form in 1967. This meant that they did the first Hsc in 1972. I believe I have those dates correct but would be happy to see this confirmed. The probably means that the last leaving certificate was 1970.

    Nope.
    My brother was 2 years behind me and started on the new HSC. Would have finished late 60s. 67?

  45. psyclaw @ #3547 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 10:04 am

    C@t
    WTTE “When I studied for the HSC…..”
    Wow! You really are a youngster! Is that what it’s called now.
    Bet Kay Jay and Bemused, like me, never got within a bull’s roar of anything called “HSC”.

    I am proud, proud I say, that after studying hard for 10 minutes or so I never got within a bull’s road of a bull’s roar of the “Intermediate”. Not quite true – I did pass, just a little license there.
    I did learn the nuances of a fast draw via Zane Gray. After a few more years I was confidently able to say modestly that I knew everything. Since then I have learned the difficult art of kicking ones self up the backside.
    Just as soon as I get my time machine working (I am currently short of paddlepop stick) I shall return to give younger self a good talking to explain that stupidity leads only to voting for completely worthless people such as LNP, country party or Nationals.
    My plan now is to be a better person. The first requirement is to be able to use EMOJI on PB. Thank you ladies and gentlemen.

  48. seanparnell: PM sets tone on #FOI ◼️ Abbott ignored our 2 diary requests until he was gone, and Turnbull denied our request for 1 day, forcing us to OAIC

  49. Just had a quick look at the NT counting – Adam Giles is still behind by about 23 votes (updated yesterday at 16:40).
    Final results for all seats still not in?

Comments Page 72 of 75
1 … 71 72 73 … 75

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *