Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research records no change on two-party preferred, indifference as to the Australian Building and Construction Commission, and very strong support for a royal commission into banking.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with Labor, Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 37%, 10% and 4%, but two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Other questions record 71% saying they gave their name and address when filling out the census, 6% saying they did not do so, and 23% saying they did not fill out the census, although one wonders if the sample might be skewed towards the sort of person who doesn’t mind filling out surveys of one kind or another. Also: 32% support the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission and 18% with 28% opting for neither, after a question which sought to explain the situation to respondents; 35% rate the issue important, and 40% not important; and 64% supporting a royal commission into banking versus only 13% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,126 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 60 of 63
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  6. I was sitting here quietly playing Spider Solitaire when I heard a huge shrieking from outside.

    Could have ben worse. At least it wasn’t Michaela Cash.

  7. victoria @ #2910 Monday, August 22, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    I love this from the Kouk
    Stephen Koukoulas
    Stephen Koukoulas – Verified account ‏@TheKouk
    This is extraordinary. @David_Speers delivers a masterclass to a master klutz https://twitter.com/vanbadham/status/767665428944474112 …

    The thing that stood out about the Speers-Cash interview was how effective a good interviewer can be when they are across their subject.
    Speers obviously had a greater knowledge of the EBA and as a result was able to show up Cash’s complete lack of knowledge on the issue.

  12. don @ #2952 Monday, August 22, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    roger miller @ #2949 Monday, August 22, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    If the ABS was expecting more people to do the census online then the number of paper forms returned would be higher that expected.

    Agreed, which under the circumstances means that they are being economical with the truth.
    I call bullshit.

    I am a bit surprised at you getting sucked into all this Census bs.
    In the real world, things don’t always run strictly according to plan and yet systems and people are resilient enough to cope.
    We saw an IT stuff-up with the Census and now people are getting on with things and coping.
    It may or may not take a little longer than planned. The forecast % doing it online may be a bit lower than expected.
    At the end of the day, so what? Lessons will be learnt.

    Then we enter a whole world of FUD created by people who seem to be opposed to the very idea of a census, seeing in it some massive invasion of privacy. If such thinking were to become widespread, governments of any persuasion would be deprived of a lot of data needed for planning purposes. The IPA would rejoice.

  15. player one @ #2924 Monday, August 22, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    allan moyes @ #2916 Monday, August 22, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    Re ABS trumpeting their unexpected success rate in the return of paper forms. When I did the last one, we had all the forms collated, accounted for and basically signed off to the supervisor of the “region” by this time. They must have lowered their expectations this time or they are spinning like a top.

    Yes, this is what I have heard from others, and it also accords with the dates I found online. I don’t know why the ABS extended the time frame by so long for this census, except that they must have been anticipating trouble. That is why I think that even though they are far behind the last census, they can still say they are ahead of their “expectations”.
    This kind of deliberately misleading and even borderline lying from the ABS only reinforces why we should no longer believe a word they say.

    Yep. This time one month ago I trusted them more than any other institution because I assumed nothing had changed. I did not know then what I do now. I think it is just stupid. The ABS are just far too important to be gambling their credibility, their reputation and the trust of the Australian people. Time will tell but I think it has been a very stupid gamble and whoever is behind the decision might want to check out Gamblers Anonymous.

  20. I will now render in fine baritone “The man who broke the bank ar Monte Carlo ” music provided by courtesy Nina with the light brown hair. I used my not so smart phone. I have been trying various methods for months with no success. I can now cuddle up with brown bear and sleep the sleep of the just. Goodnight sweet princesses and may flights of angels sing you to your rest. 🙂

  24. For Simon Katich and Barney in Saigon

    Sumatera is one of my old stomping grounds, some great memories. Like the 36 hour bus from Bukit Tinggi to Lake Toba in the wet season – plenty of time watching the bogged bus getting extracted. The pilot inviting me up to the cockpit for a DC3 flight from Palembang to Riau – not sure whether that was in standard SOPS. Going deck class from Jakarta to Padang where the crew would sell you their sleeping cabins, and you got a fish head at mealtime because you were a Westerner and they wanted to give you the best bit.

    Never got to Aceh, but just about every else including Nias, 24 hours by boat and PekanBaru, which was a real wild west town. Recently went to Bukit Lawang near Medan to the orangutan sanctuary. Highly recommended, but you need to be fit.

  26. bemused @ #2962 Monday, August 22, 2016 at 11:27 pm

    Then we enter a whole world of FUD created by people who seem to be opposed to the very idea of a census, seeing in it some massive invasion of privacy.

    No-one here fits that description that I have seen so it’s a bit of a strawman to imply otherwise. I use ABS data in my research and value it highly. I also know that the quality of the data is dependent upon the trust of the public. Former Heads believed similarly. Public trust should not be taken for granted.

    The ABS has always had a good working relationship with the public and been very respectful of the Australian people’s concerns regarding their privacy. Why the hell would they want to risk upsetting that relationship? I already know you disagree although for the life of me I cannot see how. I would have thought that it was common sense that the ABS would not want to risk messing up a good thing.

    Why are they departing from their normal procedure of seeking external advice and public consensus when proposing reforms? This departure from tradition is what I oppose more than anything else. That’s why I say I want them to fall back on their contingency plans which are more in alignment with the ABS I knew and trusted. My expectations are based upon tradition, upon the way they used to go about things. I want that ABS back that warrants our trust.

  28. Does anyone know if there is a problem with BigPond email?

    I have not been able to get any email for a few hours now and have been told emails sent to me are bouncing back to the sender as undeliverable.

    I’m out of the country and will find it difficult to fix if I have to actually speak to Telstra.

  29. lord haw haw of arabia @ #2978 Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 4:15 am

    Does anyone know if there is a problem with BigPond email?
    I have not been able to get any email for a few hours now and have been told emails sent to me are bouncing back to the sender as undeliverable.
    I’m out of the country and will find it difficult to fix if I have to actually speak to Telstra.

    I realise this is no comfort or use to you at the moment, but I gave bigpond email away as a bad joke a long time ago, and switched to gmail.

    You get 15 gig of storage for a start. And their spam filter is excellent.

  30. Lord Haw Haw Of Arabia
    Tuesday, August 23, 2016 at 4:15 am

    Does anyone know if there is a problem with BigPond email?

    I have not been able to get any email for a few hours now and have been told emails sent to me are bouncing back to the sender as undeliverable.

    I’m out of the country and will find it difficult to fix if I have to actually speak to Telstra.

    From AussieOutages:
    22 August: Problems at BigPond
    BigPond is having issues since 8:48 PM EST. Are you also affected? Leave a message in the comments.

    Angela Warren · Kitchen Hand/Cook at Hungry Jacks Strathpine
    I can’t receive emails or delete them I am really frustrated fix it
    Like · Reply · 7 hrs

    Myriam Scott · Stawell, Victoria
    Why can’t they admit there is a problem and put a notice up for customers to see instead of wasting valuable time thinking the problem is our end.
    Like · Reply · 7 hrs

    Gavan Geraghty · Mackay State High School
    Bigpond issue at Nambour. Completely out since 5pm. After 30min fault finding everything at our end that we had already tried several times, Telstra say they have technical issue at their end.
    Like · Reply · 8 hrs

    Michael Hardy · Manager at Hardy combustion sales & service
    cant get emails… says account suspended….
    Like · Reply · 9 hrs

    Glenda Evans
    BigPond fix your email problem. Had the same problem this morning got onto live link chat. The woman told ” all fine our end” I copy and pasted the error message I got telling me it was suspended so she cancelled my password then issued me with another one. Went into my account changed the password check my email a few times after that and now somebody has just rang to tell me they are trying to send an email and it keeps bouncing back to them. Went into my email account and it is telling me again that my account is suspended.

    We are trying to run a business which relays on emails.

    Fix the thing properly Telstra.

    See more at: http://aussieoutages.com/status/bigpond

  31. What the ?? has happened to Crikey? Instead of slipping right in from my bookmark, I get Julie Bishop and an invitation for a free trial. Then I have to go all round the index to get to PB.

    I know others complained yesterday. Is this another innovative “improvement”?

  33. WTF
    According to GetUp, Turnbull is about to privatise the ASIC database. This is probably more significant than the privacy issues around the census.

    Investigative journalists are on the front lines to expose shady corporate dealings – but Malcolm Turnbull is about to deal them a devastating blow.

    The Turnbull Government has been working behind closed doors to sell off Australia’s corporate ownership database. If he gets his way, Big Business will take control of over ten million corporate financial records.

    This Orwellian move could shut down scrutiny from journalists, academics and advocacy groups – all but eradicating corporate accountability. It’s a bitter recipe for rampant tax dodging and shady shell companies.

    So far the PM has managed to sneak this all under the radar. But now, with just one more week until the tender deadline, GetUp members are getting ready to blow the lid off Turnbull’s scheme with a massive public outcry – before it’s too late.

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/asic-privatisation/asic-petition/turnbull-s-attack-on-transparency?t=y0gL3HK0y

  34. I’m sure that anyone who watched QandA would agree that Mitch Fifield is the very model of a modern politician. He answered no questions directly, but wandered around each subject with platitudes, generalisations and denials, and passed everything over to Dutton. I don’t think the audience was convinced of Dutton’s sincerity!

    Example:

    Asked if he would support a senate inquiry into detention centres, Mr Fifield said it wasn’t his call as he wasn’t the minister for immigration.

    “What Peter Dutton has made clear is that those 2000-odd incidents which were cited will be investigated. It has to be acknowledged that not all those incidents are of equal significance,” he said.

    “No one in government, no one in the parliament, has any tolerance for people being treated badly.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qa-mitch-fifield-says-nothing-is-systematically-wrong-with-offshore-detention-20160822-gqyni7.html

  35. Trog

    It seems that while we all assume the Coalition is doing nothing, we are wrong. It is very busy working under the radar to bring about its goals.

  36. Well I have been through Julie Bishop? Now been into my account, been around crikey except blogs.but can’t update poll bludger when finally got into it past Trog’s getup comment 20 minutes ago

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Cormann is behaving with unjustified hubris in this attack on Labor.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/finance-minister-mathias-cormann-ramps-up-pressure-on-labor-over-budget-repair-20160822-gqxzby.html
    Looks like Mitch Fifield had a tough time on QndA last night.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qa-mitch-fifield-says-nothing-is-systematically-wrong-with-offshore-detention-20160822-gqyni7.html
    I don’t suppose it’s worth nominating this bloke for Australian of the Year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/i-hope-you-die-videos-of-screaming-salim-mehajer-broadcast-by-a-current-affair-20160822-gqylkf.html
    If a guy is attracted to a woman like this he MUST have no judgement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sanaa-derbas-pleads-guilty-to-defrauding-2-million-from-men-she-meet-through-dating-service-20160822-gqygxm.html
    What an unnecessary shambles! There is insufficient support in the Senate for a plebiscite bill but the numbers ARE there in both houses for SSM if there were a free vote.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/marriage-equality-would-pass-both-houses-in-free-vote-study-finds-20160822-gqxzlr.html
    Michael Kirby writes on the divisive and unnecessary plebiscite that would set a dangerous political precedent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michael-kirby-warns-against-dangerous-political-precedent-of-a-gay-marriage-plebiscite-20160821-gqxv9g.html
    Paul Bongiorno has his say on the subject. He’s unimpressed.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/08/22/gay-marriage-plebiscite/
    Here’s an SMH editorial on the subject. The onus is on Turnbull it says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/onus-on-malcolm-turnbull-in-samesex-marriage-vote-20160821-gqxy3z.html
    Andrew Street is wondering whether the challenge to Turnbull’s leadership will come before the plebiscite or just after it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/will-turnbulls-leadership-challenge-come-before-the-plebiscite–or-right-after-20160822-gqy8q7.html
    Warren Entsch doesn’t want any public funding for the plebiscite. Would this leave the field wide open for the cashed up and profiled opponents? Google.
    /national-affairs/dont-fund-samesex-campaigns-says-warren-entsch/news-story/1d1231801107a909c46d56764e0b2417
    Jeff Sparrow of The Guardian says that supporters of SSM should stop mourning the fact that there will be a plebiscite and set about organising to ensure there is a yes vote that will show politicians that the Australian people won’t stand for bigotry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/22/a-yes-vote-for-marriage-equality-could-show-politicians-we-wont-stand-for-bigotry

  39. Section 2 . . .

    Are we heading towards a massive Australian Public Service strike? Don’t worry – Michaela Cash will come to the fore.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/massive-public-service-strike-looms-20160822-gqy8jz.html
    John Cleese fires a few good shots at Murdoch.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/stage/2016/08/22/fawlty-towers-live-john-cleese/
    Michelle Grattan on Shorten’s response to a proposal for a banking “grievance tribunal.
    https://theconversation.com/shorten-says-grievance-tribunal-would-not-stop-bank-rip-offs-64216
    The dark side of university life.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/08/22/australian-human-rights-commission-partner-with-universities-to/
    David Wroe covers the report on the extensive sexual harassment and bullying within the AFP. A nice little time bomb left by Elizabeth Broderick.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sexual-harassment-and-bullying-are-pervasive-in-afp-major-review-finds-20160822-gqy2b1.html
    Michael Pascoe on why Australian companies are paying more dividends and what it means.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/more-aussie-companies-are-paying-out-dividends-20160822-gqy2io.html
    Channel 7 took an Olympic risk and failed.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/rio-olympics-2016/2016/08/22/seven-network-olympics-coverage/
    Craig Izzard’s in a spot of another. And so he should be!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/illegal-dumping-official-craig-izzard-allegedly-accepted-bribes-to-ignore-asbestos-20160822-gqy8tl.html
    Why can’t the government act decisively and get rid of funding these medical fakers and fraudsters?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-the-federal-government-funds-fakes-20160822-gqy2wu.html
    And this ex-mayor deserves what he gets too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/exhurstville-mayor-con-hindi-sues-staff-member-over-report-20160822-gqy47o.html

  40. Section 3 . . .

    Who’s playing funny buggers with coal mining pollution monitoring?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/wildly-in-error-dodgy-coal-pollution-data-fans-demand-for-independent-control-20160818-gqvhat.html
    Michaela Cash got monstered by David Speers over the CFA legislation. She was hopeless, flailing and wailing as Speers demonstrated he, unlike her, was all over the detail.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/22/cfa-dispute-michaelia-cash-stumbles-over-claim-of-hostile-union-takeover
    Greg Jericho demystifies the employment data and tells us that the unemployment figures so much used are not a true indicator of the economy. UNDERemployment is rising.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/aug/22/why-unemployment-is-no-longer-the-best-indicator-of-the-economys-health
    Nicole Hasham tells us of the medicated torpor of many Nauru refugees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/compliant-groggy-state-in-naurus-ghost-camps-refugees-sleep-away-the-pain-20160819-gqwcaj.html
    This is surprising?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/motorists-fail-to-reap-full-benefits-of-lower-oil-prices-from-petrol-companies-20160822-gqxyyl.html
    The new “gentle” Trump didn’t last long!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/they-said-donald-trump-wouldnt-do-personal-insults-any-more-they-were-wrong-20160822-gqyo3j.html
    John Oliver has a plan to turn Trump into a legend.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/08/22/john-oliver-has-a-foolproof-plan-to-turn-donald-trump-into-a-leg/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  41. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes us deep into Morrison’s mine.

    A brilliant effort from Mark David on the drafting of the plebiscite question.

    Cathy Wilcox eavesdrops on the big banks.

    Ron Tandberg puts the boot in over our treatment of refugees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Alan Moir on the turning tide of opinion on refugees treatment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html
    Matt Golding with a judgement on the Rio Olympics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/matt-golding-20151124-gl6ndp.html
    David Pope on what’s facing the government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Mark Knight farewells the Olympians from Rio.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/233df4dd0a7d1d98db35487f0cbf16ba
    Jon Kudelka with a ripper on the call from shock jocks for a “pub test” for research grant applications.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/106188d2b77b7216659762711b0bce81

  42. Thanks BK
    NT government locks in sweetheart coal exploration license the day before entering caretaker mode. For a huge coal deposit south of Alice Springs – big as Gallilee.
    Google
    mining-energy/sweetheart-coal-deal-locked-in-before-nt-poll/news-story

  43. Lizzie
    Could be and also winter 😀
    But why was I taken to Julie Bishop and around crikey? Never mind back to normal now hopefully

  44. Mari

    It’s not just you, apparently. I think it’s to “encourage” new subscribers.
    Have to say it puts off the loyal ones…

  50. With his new Fawlty Towers Live show making its world premiere in Sydney on Saturday night, Cleese tweeted earlier in the week that Murdoch’s Sun newspaper was trying to recruit a reviewer to take a predetermined critical hatchet to the show that could be circulated around the world.

    The problem with that plan was it required a reviewer. And it required something to chop up with the hatchet.

    Neither could be found. The show is a sensation – delivering exactly what it promises – and the journalist leaked the approach to Cleese.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/stage/2016/08/22/fawlty-towers-live-john-cleese/

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