Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research records no change on two-party preferred, indifference as to the Australian Building and Construction Commission, and very strong support for a royal commission into banking.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with Labor, Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 37%, 10% and 4%, but two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Other questions record 71% saying they gave their name and address when filling out the census, 6% saying they did not do so, and 23% saying they did not fill out the census, although one wonders if the sample might be skewed towards the sort of person who doesn’t mind filling out surveys of one kind or another. Also: 32% support the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission and 18% with 28% opting for neither, after a question which sought to explain the situation to respondents; 35% rate the issue important, and 40% not important; and 64% supporting a royal commission into banking versus only 13% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,126 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “Mr Burke said the only time a pairing arrangement had been in place was for the hung parliament under former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard.

    He said it was not normal practise for a majority government.

    “The House of Representatives normally doesn’t have pairs, with the exception of a hung parliament,” he said.

    “That’s the only time that’s happened.””

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-16/no-pairs-opposition-to-play-hard-ball-in-new-parliament/7748548

  2. zoomster @ #100 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 5:44 pm

    KayJay
    ‘If I no longer get the colesworths $1 per litre milk but opt for “Dairy Farmers” product instead what difference will that make?’
    None at all. When people were busily boycotting Coles milk, they were in fact boycotting Murray Goulburn products. Coles latest contract is with Bega.

    That’s a cheese contract with Bega and KayJay is in NSW and referring to a NSW milk supplier, “Dairy Farmers”.

  3. I won’t mention names here but many PBers have been discussing the behaviours of one of our new senators who has been given many opportunities to expose his eccentricities on our TVs this week.

    Accurate diagnosis of our human frailties takes closer clinical observation than simply viewing someone’s TV interview performances, but the two Personality Disorders below may nevertheless be relevant.

    In combo they seem to explain much of the observable conduct

    Paranoid personality disorder: people with this disorder are suspicious and mistrustful of others, interpret other people’s motives as harmful, and may be hostile or emotionally detached.

    Narcissistic personality disorder: people with this disorder have a strong sense of your own self-importance, dream of unlimited success, power and intellectual brilliance and crave attention from other people, but show few warm feelings in return

    BTW Personality Disorders are ingrained and enduring characteristics which are not usually amenable to correction. They are not seen as “mental illness”.

  5. psyclaw @ #103 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    I won’t mention names here but many PBers have been discussing the behaviours of one of our new senators who has been given many opportunities to expose his eccentricities on our TVs this week.
    Accurate diagnosis of our human frailties takes closer clinical observation than simply viewing someone’s TV interview performances, but the two Personality Disorders below may nevertheless be relevant.
    In combo they seem to explain much of the observable conduct
    Paranoid personality disorder: people with this disorder are suspicious and mistrustful of others, interpret other people’s motives as harmful, and may be hostile or emotionally detached.
    Narcissistic personality disorder: people with this disorder have a strong sense of your own self-importance, dream of unlimited success, power and intellectual brilliance and crave attention from other people, but show few warm feelings in return
    BTW Personality Disorders are ingrained and enduring characteristics which are not usually amenable to correction. They are not seen as “mental illness”.

    Very lengthy diagnosis. “Nuts” will do me.

  6. sustainable future @ #85 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    silent majority
    I think that is Mal’s main bargaining chip. “sack me, and it’s a hung parliament, and there aren’t enough lower house indies for you to get any certainty”. If the RWNJs install a leader, I’d reckon Wilkie, McGowan and X might head to labor with the greens.
    part of me thinks it’s great to see the LNP so seriously stuffed, but mostly I think the country is going to suffer as a result.

    The less this mob can do in this Parliament the better.
    Better to have 2 1/2 years stagnation than to have repair what the Libs want to do.

  7. zoomster @ #104 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 5:54 pm

    bemused
    Ah, got my supermarkets wrong! Woolworths was being supplied by Murray Goulburn
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/murray-goulburn-loses-108m-in-woolworths-private-label-contracts/news-story/4cf6523181dbf31dd72d66253ff6a241
    Apparently Coles are also supplied by MG, the difference being that that contract is ongoing.

    Isn’t there a difference between NSW and Vic?
    I thought “Dairy Farmers” was a NSW brand.

  8. I am happy to boycott Murray Goulbourn products and back instead real co-ops who aren’t posting such huge profits while their suppliers go broke. I am avoiding Norco products now likewise.

  9. bemused

    You are right. I thought KayJay was asking a broader question, about whether buying Coles/Woolworths milk was inherently more evil than buying other products. The answer is, of course, that the milk comes from Aussie farmers who are being paid the same for their efforts, regardless of the branding.

  10. psyclaw
    I think you have been talking about me. I know you are jealous and envy my panache and easy going stylish man about town attitude. I do hope it never becomes necessary for me to set the dogs on you. This last would not be easy as I only have one lovely old dog and really I think she has me just where she wants me. Regardless, know that I am on to you. 🙄

  12. We appear to have replaced governments actually doing something about sh*t with the threat that any misbehaviour will result in a good talking to from Turnbull.

  13. From the previous blog (sorry but I felt the need to reply):

    I don’t see what’s the big deal myself. I myself would be sad to see Cat and Bemused gone regardless that we disagree sometimes.

    Ditto, Nicole. : )

  14. According to Wikipedia, Dairy Farmers is owned by a Japanese brewer:

    ,blockquote>Dairy Farmers Pty Ltd is a brand of Lion Dairy & Drinks servicing mainly New South Wales & Queensland in Australia (established in 1900).
    Dairy Farmers brand has fresh milk (NSW/QLD only) & long life milk (Australia wide) as its core products & various other dairy snacks. It supplies products to local and international markets such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
    Kirin Holdings Company, Limited of Japan, via its subsidiary National Foods, acquired the company on 27 November 2008.[1][2]
    Kiran Holdings transformed “National Foods” into “Lion Dairy & Drinks” in 2009.
    LD&D’s head office is in Melbourne (a subsidiary of Lion).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dairy_Farmers

  16. Ah well, I will get the “Dairy Farmers” product from now on. As in most things I would like to be part of a solution. I won’t bother looking in the mirror to find if my saintly appearance has been enhanced because as we all know – mirrors lie. I am thinking now of Julie Bishop who I expect has one of the “Snow White” mirrors. Not everybody can afford one of those.

  17. If pressure from within the LNP grows to have Bank RC, turnbull could agree to it and then restict the TOR in the same way he did with the Juvenile Detention RC.

    In fact, taking the initiative might be the way to go for him.

    I cannot see how the Parliament will be satisfied with the Banks just fronting a House committee hearing and a full blown Senate Inquiry seems likely as well, as things stand.

  18. I can’t wait for Julie ‘Olympic Champion’ Bishop to be overseas and one other Coalition MP to be either o/s on government business, such as Trade, or ill, so that the unassailable supremacy of the government can be tested on the floor of parliament.

    Following on from the suggestions of support from within the government for a Royal Commission into the Banks and Financial Services, if I were the Opposition I would test the numbers in the parliament, and then if enough MPs from the government crossed the floor to vote for it but Turnbull refused to fund it, I would wait until such time as government numbers were weakened, then spring a No Confidence Motion on the government to test those numbers, but also the support of the Cross Benchers who have previously stated their support for a RC into the Banks.

    : )

  20. Psyclaw @ 103
    Not wanting to pick a fight, but just in the interest of more information. Borderline Personality Disorder is variably recognised as a psychiatric disorder and depending on aetiology, can be effectively treated. I’ve certainly had some success with folk with this diagnosis, but agree many personality disorders are not amenable to treatment.
    Pyne now on PM whining about the pairing arrangements for the new parliament. Hah! Suffer in yer socks.

  22. I distinctly remember the LNP denying the Gillard Govt pairs for funerals, weddings, sick relatives; so Pyne has conveniently forgot.

  23. It is confusing when there are different reports getting about. I just found this from the Sunday Telegraph. :-/

    Half of the major milk brands sold in Australia are owned by overseas companies
    SAMANTHA TOWNSEND, Regional reporter, The Sunday Telegraph
    June 12, 2016 12:00am

    WHEN you pick up a bottle of cheap milk, the chances are the profits are being sent overseas — because they are certainly not going into the pockets of Australian farmers.

    Half of the major milk brands are owned by overseas companies, sending profits to Italy, France and Japan.

    Woolworths’ own milk, as well as Pauls and Farmhouse Gold, is supplied by Italian company Parmalat, which is owned by France’s Lactalis.

    Dairy Farmers and Dairy Choice are both supplied by Lion, which is owned by Japanese company Kirin.

    A2 Milk is publicly listed, which means it is owned by a variety of Australian and international shareholders.

    Of the rest, Coles milk in NSW comes from farmer cooperatives Murray Goulburn and Norco. Norco sells its own milk, while Farmers Own is from farmers who made their own deal with Woolworths.

    Coles has also launched a new milk brand, which will be on sale soon and deliver an extra 20c from each litre to help farmers.

    “$1 milk is the lowest common denominator, far less than we ever thought and now it’s a base price consumers expect rather than a temporary market solution to get people in the door,” NSW Farmers’ dairy chair Robert McIntosh said. “When a bottle of water costs more than milk you know something is wrong.”

    Norco, the nation’s oldest Australian-owned dairy cooperative, has also struck a deal with Coles to supply the Coles brand of milk in northern NSW, which has enabled Norco to pay an extra 3.5c a litre to farmers………….

    Dairy farmers such as Taree’s Murray Polson say something needs to be done.

    When his great-great grandfather first started dairying, he milked about 30 cows, there were no industry regulations and milk was delivered by boat.

    Fast-forward four generations and, while they no longer transport milk by boat, Murray and his wife Jane are struggling to stay afloat.

    “Our industry is operating on a knife edge, these cuts and the $1 milk price wars are the worst crisis our industry has faced,” Mrs Polson said.

    The Polsons supply Australia’s largest processor, Murray Goulburn, which last month slashed its milk price to about 35c per litre, well below the cost of production.

    Not all farmers get paid the same and it depends on who they supply but it costs farmers about 45c a litre to produce milk.

    And they are expecting further cuts later this month when the new “farm gate” price is set.

    “Farmers are already on the brink of leaving their farms over the $1 milk price war, now we’ve been hit with the price cuts — who knows what will happen,” Mrs Polson said.

    “The supermarkets need to put their money where their mouth is and, when they say support Aussie farmers, they need to actually support us and increase the $1 milk to make it sustainable.’’
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/half-of-the-major-milk-brands-sold-in-australia-are-owned-by-overseas-companies/news-story/eb18d442f02bf09ccb556291cfe992c1

  25. I am anything but a constitutional expert as my occasional questions here demonstrate, but surely if the HoR somehow voted for an RC but the executive refused to seek the GG assent for one, that it itself represents a major problem with ‘confidence’ of the house? Or at least would be a good sign that a confidence vote might be the next step

  26. citizen
    Thanks for the info. I hope that the prime minister and his deputy can sort something out to benefit the dairy industry. My hopes are not high.

    Given the choice I would like to be able to change my blog handle on different days
    Bemused Befuddled Befongerated Bef**cked Bebuggered Bewitched
    Bothered Bewildered and so on.
    You will note that the last is related to nothing much at all and at least one handle is taken 😕

  27. Silentmajkority:
    Not just Katter; you could ask the same question of McGowan, Sharkey, Bandt & Wilkie.
    I am not sure many of them would support an Abbott led govt.

  28. I’m surprised how easily the media have “bought” the idea “pairs” were automatically available in the JG days. They weren’t. They were judged on a case by case basis. Never let Christopher Pyne do your homework for you!

  29. KayJay

    Does anybody have insight into what could solve the dairy farmers problems.

    Don’t shop at Coles or Woolworths. The degree to which they have a stranglehold on the whole supply chain of many products – not just dairy – is disgusting. Shop anywhere else.

  30. From Choice on milk purchase..

    To support Australian dairy farmers, you can do the following:

    Buy Australian dairy products, irrespective of brand.
    Buy branded milk if your budget allows (but if not, buy private label milk rather than no milk at all). According to Dairy Australia spokesperson, “Branded milk puts more money into the supply chain. That gives the option for processors to pay marginally more to farmers.”
    Support initiatives like Aussie Farmers Direct, which offers a premium to dairy farmers over the farm gate price for milk.
    Buy directly from a local processor – or better still a farmer at your local farmers’ market – if you have the option.

  31. abbott stopped turnbull from attending the funeral of his friend, Margaret Ollie when he was running Rambo as LOTO and looking to defeat the Labor Government on Bills, vote of No Confidence etc.

  32. Nicole
    If you listen carefully you will hear the sound of my cap gun going off. Shooting the TV has not worked -it still spouts BS. I will see if shooting my reflection in the bathroom mirror helps. I have previously asked the receptionist at my local pharmacy if the Doctor does brain transplants and if so could I have a brain that will enable me to understand the conservative side of parliament. She replied in the negative. Now listen – did you hear that? I don’t think it worked. 😛

  33. sceptic
    Thank you. I hoped that somebody would give information such as this.
    My contribution will be only a hundred dollars a year over the $1 litre but it is better than nothing.

  35. Wow! I didn’t know Malcolm Turnbull has been on a break! What an indolent man he is!
    Bet he’s unhappy at those dairy farmers for spoiling it.

  36. zoomster @ #100 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 5:44 pm

    Coles latest contract is with Bega.

    Bega only had a contract with Coles for “no brand” cheese, which they lost earlier this year. Since then Bega has signed up with Woolies to provide their “no brand” cheese.

    As their name implies (ie Bega Cheese Limited – ASX code BGA), they don’t actually do milk.

    Disclaimer: I own shares in BGA.

  39. My thanks for the information regarding Dairy. I am up the proverbial creek because I no longer drive and rely on Coles deliveries which is great because the drivers are very interesting people.

    C@tmomma – our PM does indeed deserve his hard earned rest. Should we be taking up a collection to compensate him for his discomfort regarding the Dairy Farmers problems?

  40. jackol @ #25 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:03 pm

    Bad move to say ‘no’ to pairing.
    What happens next time when the roles are reversed and the ALP are in government with a 1 seat majority and the Libs just say “no” like Burke has?
    It’s just another little step towards making parliament even less functional than it has been, and the ALP are the ones contributing this time. Bravo, not.

    Why, they’ll do it anyway. Remember how Rudd didn’t have Royal Commissions into a wide range of Howard era outrages? Didn’t stop Abbott. I imagine that pairs will be given where the absences is unexpected and unavoidable. But attendance at international conferences and the like will get the Abbott treatment.

  41. TPOF –

    Why, they’ll do it anyway.

    You know I actually want the world to get better. For things to improve.

    Whatever impedes that will get criticism from me – and I would hope it would criticism from many.

    When the Libs do (did) crap like this I criticize(d) them and urge(d) and hope(d) for improvement.

    When Labor does crap like this I will criticize them and urge and hope for improvement.

    If we never expect or hope or call for improvement (because “they’ll do it anyway”) then things will not get better.

  42. KayJay,
    C@tmomma – our PM does indeed deserve his hard earned rest. Should we be taking up a collection to compensate him for his discomfort regarding the Dairy Farmers problems?

    Nah! Make him put his hand in his own pocket again! He can afford it! : )

    Btw, I just saw Talcum on the SBS News talking to the MG Board Members. He looked like he needed a rest, not like he’d been on one!

  43. As far as I’m concerned on the pairing issue, I reckon Labor is entitled to test this excuse for a government on every issue with every tactic and strategy at their disposal. The LNP gave no quarter when Labor was in power, particularly during the minority period, so let them cop it from Labor when they’re on such a thin margin in the HoR.

  44. This might interest many of you.

    Thank you for signing. Please forward this email on to others who may want to sign.

    Australian Labor Party
    http://www.alp.org.au/

    Here’s the full petition:

    a Royal Commission into the Banking and Financial Services Sector

    Many Australians have suffered through the decisions of banks and financial institutions. There are literally tens of thousands of victims, if not more. We say enough is enough. This string of scandals has to stop. Sign and stand with Labor to say we need a royal commission into misconduct in the banking and financial services industry today.

    Sign here: http://www.alp.org.au/banksroyalcommission?recruiter_id=49483

  45. zoomster @ #111 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 6:03 pm

    KayJay
    by the sound of your dog, psyclaw is in for a good licking.

    I think psyclaw is pretty safe from both of us. He has probably been past my place in the past. When I have the occasional visitor Abbee (the dog) pretends she never gets fed and tries to embarrass me. Just as well the lations know her.

  46. Jackol,
    People like you always say that, when the shoe is on the Labor foot, that they should be the better party/man. Which is an admirable sentiment, but this is politics we are talking about and nice guys finish last. Of course, my point comes with the disclaimer that not being nice has it’s limits too.

    So I agree that Labor should be pushing the envelope, within reason.

  47. Cat –

    but this is politics we are talking about and nice guys finish last

    It’s easy to imagine Abbott saying that as an explanation for his behaviour in 2010-2013.

  48. C@tmomma
    I could easily be wrong. I hope Lucy (who appears to be brains of the Turnbull familly) makes sure that Malcolm is having appropriate medical checks. He has not looked well to me for months. What he gets out of a do nothing prime ministership is beyond me.

  49. Yesterday, someone posted rhe rumour that Abbott was counting numbers.

    Probably, someone just saw him walking around barefoot.

  50. Is there anybody keeping tabs on how many polls the government has gone without a single “win” ? Will Truffles score a brisk 20 or will he push on and make a magnificent half century , perhaps even daring to score a ton 🙂

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