This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with Labor, Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 37%, 10% and 4%, but two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Other questions record 71% saying they gave their name and address when filling out the census, 6% saying they did not do so, and 23% saying they did not fill out the census, although one wonders if the sample might be skewed towards the sort of person who doesn’t mind filling out surveys of one kind or another. Also: 32% support the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission and 18% with 28% opting for neither, after a question which sought to explain the situation to respondents; 35% rate the issue important, and 40% not important; and 64% supporting a royal commission into banking versus only 13% opposed.
re: pairing, the ABC article says ‘Christopher Pyne, has labelled the move as “Dickensian”.’
Hmmm, what does that mean?
“Great Expectations”
“Hard Times”
“Bleak House”
Been out and about with only the occasional opportunity to check in.
Amazing how some stick the boot into me in my absence.
Not surprisingly it includes some of those who bleat about bullying and me being nasty to them or others.
Jackol
If it is true that pairs are only granted in hung parliaments, then so be it, I say.
Why does Labor always have to be more pure than the driven snow?
colton @ #48 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:27 pm
Well, you can now look forward to being banned over at the “Blog of Batshit Insanity”. BB employs North Korean moderators over there.
Bemused – “There is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.” – Nina661
LNP MPs will only need to abstain to defeat legislation or allow private members bills to get up. turnbull’s goose is cooked.
Black is white!
Pink is blue!
Up is down!
Yes is no!
Sorry, just finished watching Q&A. Should recover soon.
Roberts is completely entrapped in the bubble and nothing is going to change his view.
I would be fascinated to see his psychological profile.
Padded walls may be needed.
Not sure who for? Him or the country.
bk @ #47 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:27 pm
………………………..
Putting an error prone and bitterly divided coalition under constant pressure looks like a pretty good approach to force errors and undermine morale – and ill feeling towards the ‘leader’ who boasted of having political “to burn” and then went and did exactly that – in spades.
But Labor will end up granting some pairs I think. plus the tories will have to run around and be ‘nice’ to the cross benchers.
nina661 @ #55 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:33 pm
Go ahead, talk about me.
Just because Abbott was a dickhead about pairs (and was criticised for it) it doesn’t follow that Shorten should be a dickhead. You can’t complain about Abbott and then do the same yourself.
Remarkable seeing Bill Shorten lowering his standards once again to those of Tony Abbott.
kezza2 –
The principle of pairing has nothing to do with hung parliaments. It is true that winner-take-all single member electorates in the lower house means that normally we have seen the government of the day have a healthy surplus of MHRs, and hence they have always been able to accommodate a few of their own members being absent without changing the outcome of votes.
But the principle that pairing represents – that sometimes there are reasons why members of the government might need to be absent due to government business or personal reasons or, really, whatever – is about maintaining the basic numerics of the chamber without making being an MP a life consuming experience.
Sure, I doubt that the ALP will refuse (apparently on a case-by-case basis, a la Abbott again) to pair an MP who is in hospital, or who needs to attend a funeral etc, and the ALP are probably just posturing at this point in time, but it is not good posturing and sets up a future of this Abbottesque nonsense.
Because if no one takes the high road then the low road gets very busy indeed.
bk @ #41 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:20 pm
I’d offer Katter!
I agree Shorten should get his pound of flesh from Turnbull though.
CC
Its going to be very interesting how votes fall in this coming parliament on many issues.
A bank RC is another one.
Tricot
I suspect you are right. I can’t see Labor denying (for instance) a pair for a mother looking after an ailing child, as Abbott did. But the point has to be made. And I am glad to see the ALP (finally!) willing to play hard ball against the serial convention destroyers and process abusers we currently in government.
Good point made elsewhere about the Essential report which shows that only 71% of people provided a name and address on the census. Essential didn’t ask those that said “yes” if they provided the correct name and address!
I suspect this census will uncover a strangely large number of people whose name appears to be “Censy McCensusFace”.
Bemused,
I do not seem to get into arguments over at The Pub.
Perhaps it is because of their strict admittance code.
They do seem to do a good job keeping the rabble out.
Haha, sorry, Couldn’t resist 🙂
colton @ #68 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:54 pm
I foolishly responded to some provocation by confessions over there and was gone in a flash.
I should have known BB and his North Korean moderators were just waiting to pounce.
Hello all,
Just like to say I’m always on the side lines & I read most of the posts here everyday. What fun.
Yesterday, someone posted rhe rumour that Abbott was counting numbers.
If this is so & I think it could be, what might happen if Turnbull is deposed in the near future? Would Turnbull remain in the LNP or sit as an independent? If so, then the LNP would be precariously positioned on 75 minus a speaker thus 74. Just punishment, he would have some influence on the balance of power. Would Katter support the Libs in this instance? Would we be forced to another election by christmas? Would Turnbull leave Parlt & if so would the Libs win Wentworth?
I think one of the above scenario’s is likely.
Can Labor with the assistance of Greens and other cross benchers set up a Royal Commission without the agreement of the govt. ?
Or does the govt. of the day need to give approval for that to happen?
Thinking of Robbie Buck and many others – it’s funny how bores like nothing better than talking about themselves, which as they are bores is very boring.
‘Can Labor with the assistance of Greens and other cross benchers set up a Royal Commission without the agreement of the govt. ?
Or does the govt. of the day need to give approval for that to happen?’
Good question, to which I think the answer is yes, but really have no idea.
Adrian
I think that a Royal Commission MUST have the approval of the government. It must be assumed from the name that it is set up by the GG who must take the advice of the PM
Another point about today’s Essential Report. If the 6% of people who didn’t provide their names extends across the whole population (personally, I think it will end up being much higher) then the government will be able to collect $260,000,000 in fines per day.
No wonder David Kalisch seems so confident the government won’t sack him!
Silent Majority,
Interesting questions you pose.
I very much doubt that Turnbull would sit on the backbench.
His monstrous ego would never be able to accept that.
Unless he lost a leadership ballot by a few votes and he saw a return to the leadership as being a possibility.
In that case pass the popcorn.
Seeing Turnbull try and cut down another far right leader like an Abbott, Dutton or Morrison would be a great thing to witness.
The divisions in the LNP would quickly bubble to the surface and I suspect a real split could occur between the far right wing and the slightly less far right wing of the liberal party.
I think we should crowdsource some money so that Bilbo can commission a poll. He needs fresh polling every few days to keep inmates in the asylum pacified.
Adrian and Dtt,
Cheers for the answers.
Although I would definitely support such a RC being called by this parliament Into the banking industry as proposed by the ALP I wonder about any precedent set that could affect a future Labor govt.
Given the libs proven track record of calling politically motivated RCs (pink batts, unions and the Marks RC here in WA) I suspect they would just be itching to institute yet another tawdry political exercise under the guise of a RC.
Pairs are only used in a ‘hung parliament’ ..this is NOT a ‘hung parliament’ ..so the ALP is right to refuse pairs..
..why make Truffle’s job easier, when he refuses every offer of bi-partisanship from the ALP, whilst stealing many of their policy ideas?
adrian @ #73 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 5:03 pm
Would need a majority in the HoR at least and probably also the Senate.
BTW,
I would think the pairing decision has a lot to do with labor pushing for a RC into banks and a conscience vote on SSM in the HOR.
Labor can win all it likes in the senate however, it is in the HOR that the real game will be played.
Cheers.
Poll Bludger Poll TM
‘We understands it ’cause we owns it’
Markjs
I think a compromise is in order. In the spirit of true bipartisanship, pairs should be offered on any legislation both the LNP and the ALP support. On any other legislation, no.
silentmajority Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 4:59 pm
Abbott being returned to the leadership and being defeated at the next election is in my mind the most likely scenario of any. He is so close to the leadership, he can taste it. If a path can be found, he will take it, and Turnbull’s lack of judgement appears to be creating a path. It’s too early to say what Turnbull’s reaction to an ousting might be but at this point I suspect he would behave on the backbench and resign at the election.
silent majority
I think that is Mal’s main bargaining chip. “sack me, and it’s a hung parliament, and there aren’t enough lower house indies for you to get any certainty”. If the RWNJs install a leader, I’d reckon Wilkie, McGowan and X might head to labor with the greens.
part of me thinks it’s great to see the LNP so seriously stuffed, but mostly I think the country is going to suffer as a result.
Markjs,
Yes. We all remember the hard ball the libs played during the last hung parliament.
Refusing to even give a pair so Turnbull and I think Crean could attend Margaret Olleys funeral service.
Me thinks it is time for a dose of their own bitter medicine.
player one @ #16 Tuesday, August 16, 2016 at 3:44 pm
Good to see. Go Bill!
“In the 43rd parliament, the [Gillard/Rudd] government rejected only one out of 27 requests by the Opposition for pairs, while the [Abbott] Opposition rejected 60 out 185 Government requests.”
https://theconversation.com/petty-politics-the-perils-of-parliamentary-pairing-3510
Last time the census was conducted, a grand total of 100 people were fined – and that was only people who refused to fill it out, full stop.
So I don’t think we’re looking at rivers of gold, here.
‘If the RWNJs install a leader, I’d reckon Wilkie, McGowan and X might head to labor with the greens.’
I don’t think McGowan was particularly critical of Abbott.
Player One..
..Lol!!..
Labor and ‘others’ may well be able to get Bills to establish a RC into the Banks through both houses – but I don’t think they will be able to get the money to pay for it?
Only a Government can pass money Bills ?
I know it’s mostly just a stunt and pairs will be given on a case by case basis when there’s a family or medical issue, but anything that gets Pyne onto his hind legs and into his best high dudgeon is always good sport.
Still let Mal sweat and keep JBish in the country in the precious few sitting weeks Turnbull allows himself to be exposed to.
Pairs are used in more than just hung parliaments.
The senate cannot initiate a money bill. It cannot therefore initiate an RC.
Turnbull has the numbers in the House to decide on an RC?
Good to see Shorten say he is prepared to play hardball with the libs.
I wonder how long the bums in the press gallery take until they are writing stories about the opposition putting cheap politics above the nations best interests and slagging off at Shorten because he is opposing the govts agenda.
I bet we will not hear the same shit we heard from these hopefully soon to be redundant hacks such as an opposition leaders role is to oppose etc like they always did when covering and propping up Abbotts arse.
I think DTT is correct – wikipedia says:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Commissions_Act_1902
So, IANAL, but short of amending the original legislation or duplicating it for the specific purposes of a banking RC (neither of which is a good idea), I’d say that only the GG acting on advice from the executive can initiate an RC.
Dave,
thanks. I did not even consider the actual paying for such a RC.
Wouldn’t be a good look though if the majority of parliament agreed to set up a RC yet the LNP wouldnt fund it.
Protecting the banks against scrutiny would not play too well with voters.
If I no longer get the colesworths $1 per litre milk but opt for “Dairy Farmers” product instead what difference will that make?
Does anybody have insight into what could solve the dairy farmers problems. It’s pretty sad from where I sit to know that long time farmers are selling their prized and loved herds and are presumably left with heavy debts anyway.
Tweets by Tony Burke
Tony Burke @Tony_Burke
Calm down @cpyne . Our whip has been giving leave for family reasons, yours should too.
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Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
Tony Burke
58m58 minutes ago
Tony Burke @Tony_Burke
I thought the PM said he had a working majority @cpyne . If the Parliament lacks stability just let us know.
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Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
Tony Burke
56m56 minutes ago
Tony Burke @Tony_Burke
Last term the whips gave family leave without pairs. They can continue to do so this term. Labor already has. @cpyne
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Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
Tony Burke
55m55 minutes ago
Tony Burke @Tony_Burke
@FJKeany last term there was no pairing arrangement. We’ve been giving leave this term the same way.
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Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
Tony Burke
25m25 minutes ago
Tony Burke @Tony_Burke
Working majority + completely stable government = no need for pairs just like last term. If the equation is different the Govt should own up
KayJay
‘If I no longer get the colesworths $1 per litre milk but opt for “Dairy Farmers” product instead what difference will that make?’
None at all. When people were busily boycotting Coles milk, they were in fact boycotting Murray Goulburn products. Coles latest contract is with Bega.