Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The only pollster currently in the game finds Labor retaining its modest post-election, and finds opinion finely balanced on superannuation reform and nominating Kevin Rudd for United Nations Secretary-General.

Essential Research, which is still the only polling series back in the game after the election, records Labor maintaining a 52-48 lead in the latest reading of its fortnightly rolling average, with primary votes also unchanged at Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 10% and Nick Xenophon Team 4%. Also featured:

• Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

• Thirty-seven per cent said Tony Abbott should resign from parliament; 25% that he should be given a ministry; and 21% that he should remain on the back bench. A similar question in March found 47% saying he should quit at the looming election, with 18% saying he should be given a ministry and 15% that he should remain on the back bench.

• Capping after-tax super contributions backdated at $500,000 recorded 29% approval and 34% disapproval.

• A question on groups that would be better and worse off under the re-elected Coalition government returned the usual results, with large companies and the high-income earners expected to do very well indeed, small businesses somewhat less well but still net positive, and various categories of struggler expected to do poorly.

• As it does on a semi-regular basis, the pollster asked questions on trust in various media outlets. However, this asked specifically on reportage of the federal election campaign, dropped separate questions for the news and current affairs as distinction from talkback programming of “ABC radio” and “commercial radio”, and in the case of the newspapers, dropped the normal proviso that respondents be be a readers of the paper in question to qualify for inclusion. This led to much lower levels of trust being recorded for the newspapers across the board, while the radio results split the difference between the higher results that are normally recorded for news and current affairs, and the lower results for talkback. As far as relativities are concerned, the results as before find television the most trusted medium, public broadcasters favoured over commercial ones. However, The Australian did not perform significantly better than News Corporation tabloids, as it has usually done in the past, whereas the Fairfax papers continued to record somewhat higher levels of trust than News Corporation ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,123 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Oh phew! lol. Still… I had best behave myself a little more now I am not feeling so anonymous.

    And once you fill out the census we will know where you live, last night’s dessert and who you voted for!!!!!

  2. Zoom:

    Moccasins are the very opposite of bogan. Ugg boots or fluffly slip on slippers you buy off the shelf at K-Mart however have it goin on in Boganville.

  3. I think ‘bogan’ might be an Australian analog of ‘hillbilly’. It implies a lack of sophistication, maybe poorly educated, humble origins, maybe uncouth. It can be used pejoratively, sometimes maybe affectionately.

    I looked up the term ‘chav’. It does seem similar to ‘bogan’ but more specifically refers to young people. A bit like ‘lout’, although non-gender specific.

  4. Dtt
    How do you know what the majority of the electirate saw her as? You are not using depictions of her in the MSM are you? Or Gai Waterhouse, racehorse trainer, who complained about PMJG’s coat when Julia was standing amongst the wreckage of Japan’s tsunami, expressing our nation and her personal shock and horror at the destruction and loss of life?

    I personally, in amongst all my many dealings with the poor and disadvantaged, have not encountered a bogan but there are a few if the well-heeled I see knocking on the door of that label.

  5. puff, the magic dragon. @ #186 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    If anyone is calling Julia Gillard a bogan they are not doing it as a sign of respect. It is an insult and put down of her and her parents, deliberately targetted and used, with a sprinkling of condencation to sweeten the slap.
    Not only is it a miserable act, it is a cowardly one at that.

    You are right that it is not a sign of respect but it can still be said affectionately as a side note. Some people can like a person including their various human qualities and traits, because its part of the mix that makes a person who they are. It all depends on the context I suppose. Not justifying, simply saying.

  6. Greensborough,
    I have fond memories of going to Melbourne during the Skyhooks era and was shocked to see all the Melburnites getting around like Bon Scott clones with tight jeans you could see what you were made of on, at the bottom of which were a pair of moccasins!

  7. confessions

    Yes. Correct. Shows maturity of gay community able to oppose a plebiscite but prepare to fight if cards are dealt.

  8. Dtt
    You might want to examine why younwant to apply that label to Julia. I find it puzzling. After all, it is nearly impossible to come through the South Australian school system and come out as your idea of ‘bogan’.

  9. puff, the magic dragon. @ #220 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:43 pm

    Dtt
    You might want to examine why younwant to apply that label to Julia. I find it puzzling. After all, it is nearly impossible to come through the South Australian school system and come out as your idea of ‘bogan’.

    I agree. She wasn’t really a bogan, it was just an affectation.

  10. fess,

    A split in the camp is never to be celebrated.
    Seems to be about the right model for achieving an outcome; just like the Republican debate.
    Still waiting for that one to resolve itself 20 years later.

  11. zoomster @ #189 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    C@
    I referred to ugg boots – but these were replaced by desert boots. I’m not sure what the up to date bogan wears nowadays…crocs in summer, I would think (note to self: check out sisters’ shoe collection…)

    I would’ve thought thongs. Mind you I live in QLD. I remember one day when we were heading down to the shop, my ex who is a Tradie was wearing socks and put on his thongs over his socks. I said there is no way I’m being seen with you wearing socks and thongs. He was like what is your problem? We had an argument over it and I blamed the fact I was born in Victoria. Hahahaha

  12. GG,
    That was probably me.
    Did you used to do ‘the dance’ with the hands clasped and bouncing, one on top of the other, as you affected a casually bored expression whilst chewing gum? : )

  13. Hmmm….fluffy slippers ARE moccasins.

    (Moccies, as they are known, are reversed sheepskin slippers, with the fleece on the inside).

  14. Deblonay et al
    The problem was not just Victoria and Qld. Robertson was lost at the preselection.
    If the ducks had lined up we would now have a minority Labor government.
    Labor should not crow about this result.

  15. Pauline Hanson is a regular these days On Sky news

    Sky News Australia
    27m27 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@PaulineHansonOz says there’d be an uproar if the WA government appointed a Senator to replace Rod Culleton #pmlive http://snpy.tv/2aJJOk7

  16. That faint slapping sound you hear is Don Farrell and Alex Gallacher high-fiving each other. What a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad Senate result in SA.

  17. The bogans of Woy Woy are this winter wearing tight long-sleeved t-shirts, tight jeans with slashed knees, thongs, pedicured nails and a toe ring.
    Or if they are wimps they ditch the thongs and go for Adidas. : )

  18. Itsthevibe

    I agree. However on the bright side the Shoppies union now does not oppose Marriage Equality.

    Hopefully their presence won’t curtail Mr Shorten’s progressive social agenda.

  19. oakeshott country @ #228 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:49 pm

    Deblonay et al
    The problem was not just Victoria and Qld. Robertson was lost at the preselection.
    If the ducks had lined up we would now have a minority Labor government.
    Labor should not crow about this result.

    It certainly could have been better.
    If we had done as well in Victoria as we did in 2010, we would have won back Latrobe, Corangamite and Deakin, held Chisholm and been looking good in Dunkley.
    That would almost have got us to majority government.

  20. Victoria:

    Wow Rudd’s humiliation is even worse that we thought. More Liberals wanted him UNSG than ordinary voters according to polling!

  21. I think Labor has plenty to crow about.

    First term government almost gone. Chaos of a Senate as we know LNP can’t negotiate their way out of a wet paper bag.

    Result could be LNP out of office for a decade as their economic stable and refugee policies unravel.

  22. bemused @ #196 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    nicole @ #185 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    bemused @ #176 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    nicole @ #172 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:22 pm

    vogon poet @ #164 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    Nicole, you can be a bogan, just make sure you don’t become a Nerangutan

    LOL.. Got my mind ticking now. Did I ever mention Nerang here? I don’t think so. I’m outed.

    You mentioned it yesterday I think. Or maybe the day before.

    Oh phew! lol. Still… I had best behave myself a little more now I am not feeling so anonymous.

    I remember because I wondered where the hell it was and looked it up on Google maps.

    It’s a beautiful spot. I can see the Scenic Rim mountains from my windows and back yard. Its got the best of both worlds. Officially hinterland but still handy to everything. The worst thing about here is the fact it is blue ribbon and we have Ciobo for our local member and Sid Cramp for QLD.

  23. As per article referred to earlier by guytaur. Does the govt have a plan?……

    The Papua New Guinea Supreme Court has ordered the Australian government to provide a resettlement plan for immigration detainees being held on Manus Island, with answers required this week.

    On Tuesday, the court said a plan for resettlement of the about 900 asylum seekers being held on Manus should be offered on Thursday, after ruling in April that the Australian-government funded detention

  24. Declarations aren’t even in and this rabble’s Cabinet is split down the middle and leaking like a rusted out bucket.

    Seriously there are some morons in this country if enough thought these turkeys could learn to fly (I’m looking at you Qld and WA). And all this over a no-brainer of endorsing an ex-PM to have a (very likely unsuccessful) crack at UNSG.

    Can you imagine what open warfare is ahead when really controversial stuff like the Super changes and Plebiscite wording and timing come up? Oh and Manus is turning into a very sticky situation for them and the longer no boats come the more people’s attention turns to the conditions people are being held under (exactly why Rudd’s changes were initially bipartisan). And the RBA didn’t drop rates because the economy’s going gangbusters. And all those savings they are still deluding themselves will pass the senate…

    May you live in interesting times Malcolm.

  25. Only until I discovered the Nutbush

    And to think that Nutbush City Limits now gets played at the discos for Primary School kids. : )

  26. Pauline Hanson is a regular these days On Sky news

    Now there’s a collective of bogans.

    However, I must impress, I come from bogan central, Motown, no less.

    Moccies On Everyone.

    Ah, FMD, we can barely call the ambos, to stitch up our splitting sides, for laughing.

  27. definition of troll:

    one who posts a deliberately provocative message with the intention of disruption or argument …..

  28. vogon poet @ #203 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    Nerangutans go barefoot, and wear thongs for special occasions.

    LOL, you’ve got me pegged. Barefoot at home always, thongs to the shops or appointments but I do prefer my 80’s looking flat heeled black leather boots for special occasions when I’m wearing my good jeans. The boots are the former alternative city living in Brissie and Melbourne coming out in me. See hippy-bogan, lol.

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