Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The only pollster currently in the game finds Labor retaining its modest post-election, and finds opinion finely balanced on superannuation reform and nominating Kevin Rudd for United Nations Secretary-General.

Essential Research, which is still the only polling series back in the game after the election, records Labor maintaining a 52-48 lead in the latest reading of its fortnightly rolling average, with primary votes also unchanged at Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 10% and Nick Xenophon Team 4%. Also featured:

• Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

• Thirty-seven per cent said Tony Abbott should resign from parliament; 25% that he should be given a ministry; and 21% that he should remain on the back bench. A similar question in March found 47% saying he should quit at the looming election, with 18% saying he should be given a ministry and 15% that he should remain on the back bench.

• Capping after-tax super contributions backdated at $500,000 recorded 29% approval and 34% disapproval.

• A question on groups that would be better and worse off under the re-elected Coalition government returned the usual results, with large companies and the high-income earners expected to do very well indeed, small businesses somewhat less well but still net positive, and various categories of struggler expected to do poorly.

• As it does on a semi-regular basis, the pollster asked questions on trust in various media outlets. However, this asked specifically on reportage of the federal election campaign, dropped separate questions for the news and current affairs as distinction from talkback programming of “ABC radio” and “commercial radio”, and in the case of the newspapers, dropped the normal proviso that respondents be be a readers of the paper in question to qualify for inclusion. This led to much lower levels of trust being recorded for the newspapers across the board, while the radio results split the difference between the higher results that are normally recorded for news and current affairs, and the lower results for talkback. As far as relativities are concerned, the results as before find television the most trusted medium, public broadcasters favoured over commercial ones. However, The Australian did not perform significantly better than News Corporation tabloids, as it has usually done in the past, whereas the Fairfax papers continued to record somewhat higher levels of trust than News Corporation ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,123 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. greensborough growler @ #146 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 8:54 pm

    Psychlaw,
    This is an opinion site. So, no matter how much you lament or bitch about other people’s opinions, they are not wrong.
    Cloistering yourself in a the mumbo jumbo rags of alleged academic knowledge doesn’t really protect you from bias and self deception. You just think it does.
    Perception is the reality here on PB and you will be grouped with those whom others think you belong. Just accept it and move on.
    I just find the oh so earnest denials quite amusing. You’d probably be a good subject for any cognitive dissonance research you might be contemplating.

    Ohhhh GG, I love it when you talk anti-intellectual!
    Nearly as good as your pro-ignorance blasts.

  2. dtt

    ‘People who read a lot – be it novels, internet or policy documents will not be bogans almost by definition. ‘

    So Gillard is not a bogan.

  3. Zoomster

    I suppose it depends on what you read – Mills and Boon and airport novels probably do not count. I think to escape being bogan you need at least the Russian greats, Dickens, Margaret Atwood and Patrick White (smiley).

  4. Re Bogan and “Chav”
    >>>>>>>>>>
    In the UK there is a word used..”chav “……
    which denotes a kind off Bogan ///much favoured by the tories which like to see the working class types as just above he level of the larger apes…fits with the classic view held by the UK Ruling Class…appalling as they are …sadly the UK has never had a revolution like France or Russia which in the long run really scares the shit out of the elites …some off who,may survive

  5. And Musrum :). And in case my last post had an attack of the Gerbils I said nice things about BK and Guytaur. Right – going to shut up for a year or two now…

  6. Zoomster

    I am trying to approach the topic in a dispassionate way, so cut the emotive stuff. The term is used to describe a subset of Australians. It has cultural connotations. Sure it IS used disparagingly often, although these days it has been rather claimed back like “queer” as a term of pride.

    The reality is that Gillard either was bogan or chose to convey a bogan image. That is a choice she made. It is pretty stupid to deny the reality of her cultural image. It might even be said with justification that by sticking to her “bogan” image Gillard was exhibiting confidence in who she is and where she is from. By contrast I am sure we all know people of working class background who cultivate an “educated” accent and adopt a slightly absurd “cultivated” image waxing on about art or music.

  7. I can be a bit of a bogan at times although not really. It likely depends on the day. A well read and opinionated, occasionally potty mouthed hippy-bogan maybe? Who can say? Some might agree and others not. Perception is a curious thing.

  8. Deblonay

    Good to see you.

    It might just be my perception but I somehow find the term Bogan less offensive than the UK chav. I might be kiddling myself however.

  9. dtt

    I’m not at all perturbed about someone being described as a bogan. My sisters were definitely bogans (probably still are) and it’s an absolute truth that some of my best friends are.

    Your definition is at fault, and contradictory.

    A bogan (almost by definition) is a working class Australian – a pommie doesn’t cut it, and Gillard is a pom. Your genuine bogan has a couple of generations of Aussie behind them.

    As I pointed out, Gillard didn’t dress like a bogan, but a Melbournian. (Some Melbournians are bogans, but they don’t wear pants suits) – and a professional Melbournian woman, at that.

    It was you who said that Gillard was a bogan because she didn’t read and then said that someone who read policy documents was, by definition, not a bogan. If you haven’t got your definition sorted out, don’t be surprised if others dispute it.

  10. Do you reckon we’ll ever have Bogan Poetry?

    Nah, it’d just be recitals of Guns n Roses and AC/DC songs. You can skip the poetry part and go straight to Bogan Bingo for that, so can’t see Bogan Poetry catchin on.

  11. Re election result
    +++++++++
    Now that we see Turnbull with only a 76-74 majority,it tends to highlight the result that might have come had Labor done better in Vic.which saw the only ALP seat loss…Chisholm…and the failure to win either marginal seats of Dunkley or Corangamite which might’ve been won with a swing like those in Tas/NSW /WA and even QLand

    BTW..The Murdoch Press has it seems forgotten now about the CFA issue which has now disappeared…looking at the recent issue of the Murdoch-Sun in Melb I find not a word about what a few weeks ago was deemed a major issue….an issue very badly managed by the Andrews Govt,it must b e said …, and which must have helped the Libs in Vic …and ensured their Canberra majority… though it is a tiny one…otherwise The Libs might have been lucky to have got 73 seats…Andrews so far has escaped criticism ….lucky man

  12. Zoomster

    Stop quibbling. Gillard was NOT known as a policy wonk. She was a negotiator and union lawyer. Not a policy analyst.

  13. Wow

    All I will say on the reignited flame war. This is not about Rudd. Its about Turnbull lying and as a result as some in MSM have noted possibly misleading parliament.

    Rudd’s suitability or lack of it would have been decided in the selection process.

    Unless such a candidate can be shown to be insane and no matter what I have heard they have not then Rudd should be put forward as the expert departmental opinion and as the majority of cabinet decided both facts we learnt from leaks.

    THE IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE RUDD SAGA IS THAT THE TURNBULL CABINET IS LEAKING.

    Look how media reported that when it happened under Gillard.

    Love hate or meh about Mr Rudd this is not really about him its about the PM

  14. Some of us value diversity, even if we may not entirely agree.

    You”re all different. …….. I’m not.

    Sorry, watched it on SBS the other night. That just reminded me of it. Great movie.

  15. bemused @ #176 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    nicole @ #172 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:22 pm

    vogon poet @ #164 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    Nicole, you can be a bogan, just make sure you don’t become a Nerangutan

    LOL.. Got my mind ticking now. Did I ever mention Nerang here? I don’t think so. I’m outed.

    You mentioned it yesterday I think. Or maybe the day before.

    Oh phew! lol. Still… I had best behave myself a little more now I am not feeling so anonymous. 😀

  16. If anyone is calling Julia Gillard a bogan they are not doing it as a sign of respect. It is an insult and put down of her and her parents, deliberately targetted and used, with a sprinkling of condencation to sweeten the slap.

    Not only is it a miserable act, it is a cowardly one at that.

  17. C@

    I referred to ugg boots – but these were replaced by desert boots. I’m not sure what the up to date bogan wears nowadays…crocs in summer, I would think (note to self: check out sisters’ shoe collection…)

  18. This is what I came to post about some good news and a fun twitter meme
    johndory49: #Manus closing: PNG court orders Oz to provide resettlement plan by Thursday. smh.com.au/federal-politi… #auspol pic.twitter.com/bj2irkg3fx

    : The Lyin’ King #DonaldTrumpTheMovie pic.twitter.com/f20Y4Yo9EZ
    CharBlueChief: @realDonaldTrump starring in ‘Clueless’ #DonaldTrumpTheMovie pic.twitter.com/XXXLFTpp0Y

  19. Yummmm.. Dinner.

    Ugghh desert.

    Nicole: “OK, I confess. I am an undercover Rudd groupie who should have her opinions completely ignored because she is brainwashed by her cult leader Bemused or is he a sub cult leader, must be. I bow down to you dear leader. I bow down to you oh Kevie. I lay aside all of my common sense and capacity to think rationally to serve you oh my leader. I shall go undercover and join the pollbludger blog so I can teach them the beauty of your ways oh my leader. In Kevin’s name. Amen (or should that be ffs).”

    What was that about the lady”doth protest too much, methinks”? “The boot fits, wear it.”?

    Hit me with your best shot: Gossip Girls!! Sock it to me. he he he

  20. Puff

    Well call me out. Gillard is a bogan or at least conveys that image. Call me a middle class “w**ker” if you want and you may be right, but the reality is that most of the electorate saw her in that cultural group.

  21. nicole @ #185 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    bemused @ #176 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    nicole @ #172 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:22 pm

    vogon poet @ #164 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    Nicole, you can be a bogan, just make sure you don’t become a Nerangutan

    LOL.. Got my mind ticking now. Did I ever mention Nerang here? I don’t think so. I’m outed.

    You mentioned it yesterday I think. Or maybe the day before.

    Oh phew! lol. Still… I had best behave myself a little more now I am not feeling so anonymous.

    I remember because I wondered where the hell it was and looked it up on Google maps.

  22. The comedian Dave Hughes is the best example of a male bogan I can think of.

    ‘Kath and Kim’ was, of course, a documentary about bogans.

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