The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:
• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.
• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.
• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.
• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.
• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.
Puff MD @7:46PM: agree 100%. I always put Liberals last. I would put them behind One Nation. While the latter are unacceptable, they would be ineffective at advancing the IPA agenda orvtheir own. And we know about dodgy deals under the old system that got Steve Fielding elected.
In pretty much any circumstance, I direct my preferences to be as little help as possible to the Liberals.
zoomster @ #89 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 7:09 pm
No zoomster, that bit in bold is not true.
The objection was that they had no control over where their preferences went and were in effect handing that over to others guided by Glenn Druery. So they could end up having their vote elect a Senator with views quite different to what they supported.
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/07/19/essential-research-51-49-labor-9-3/comment-page-2/#comment-2450334
If NXT gets/had recieved a favourable preference flow in Sturt and/or Boothby, from the Greens and lower vote candidates, it could overtake the ALP and then it would have been in with a chance to take the seat(s) on ALP preferences if the ALP had directed preferences to them. Barker would be on the edge of possibility if NXT had been preferenced, not likely but not impossible.
If NXT had taken any of Grey, Boothby and Sturt, then Turnbull would not have a majority and his government would thus be much less stable, especially if more than one seat had been taken. That would be a major tactical win for the ALP.
nicole @ #1107 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 6:05 pm
Nicole, I have seen some bullshit in my time, but that beats all. Self delusion writ large.
You’re not a happy clappy as well, are you? It would fit.
bushfire bill @ #100 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 7:58 pm
Well now I know a new (to me) term, post restante.
PB is a never ending source of new knowledge.
bemused @ #105 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:09 pm
When I was travelling, 1966 to 1970, and never knew where I would be from one month to the next, it was a very convenient way for people to send me mail and for me to collect it.
It worked well. Does it still exist, or has it vanished like the telegram?
The voter control of ATL preferences has improved the democraticness of the election.
The increased exhaustion rate is unfortunate but the increase in the informal rate from compulsory full preferential ATL would have been far worse.
The principled decision, based in opposition to making it harder to access the ballot paper, by the Greens to not support increasing the party membership threshold, allowing a cacophony of smaller parties access to party names on the ballot paper that reduced the major party vote cost the Greens by undercutting their vote with single issue parties that undercut the Green vote.
Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment said at4:08pm
Hanson is popular with a certain segment of the Australian public for the same reason that George W Bush was popular with a similar segment in the US. Why? Because no matter how stupid and ignorant, how uneducated, how racist, misogynistic and backward your beliefs, you can still make it to the highest office in the land.
Hanson is popular with a certain segment of the Australian public for the same reason that George W Bush was popular with a similar segment in the US. Why? Because it is evidence that no matter how stupid and ignorant, how uneducated, how racist, misogynistic and backward your beliefs, you can still make it to the highest office in the land.
BB
congratulations
I will send you a signed copy of whatever book Massola has written.
So, just went down to Balga Plaza Pharmacy to get some scripts filled – first since before Election Day – and found that the Government has imposed a surcharge on concessional prescriptions for my anti-anxiety medications. Instead of paying $6.20/script, I’m now – apparently – paying $6.20/script + $3/box for any brand-name pharmaceuticals.
Nice to see the Lieberals punching down, balancing the Budget on the backs of the poorest Australians (like myself)….again.
tom the first and best @ #107 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:17 pm
When ATL was first introduced, I assumed that the voter would direct their preferences and got quite a shock when I found this was not so. It was a very bad system.
The d r @ #108 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:19 pm
The author of the return of Hanson is none other than Tony Abbott.
matt @ #110 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:28 pm
Make sure you let your new MP, Anne Aly, know of this.
Evening all. No doubt like others here I was amused by the sheer incompetence demonstrated by Donald Trump’s wife in blatantly copying whole slabs of Michelle Obama’s speech at the Republican convention. They may be the only intelligent words spoken by Republican’s this week.
The attempts to hide the embarrasement by calling it a “controversy” or an “appearance of plagiarism are laughable. There is no controversy or debate. Ms Trump lifted entire paragraphs of Muchelle Obama’s speech with hardly a word changed.
Out of curiosity I looked up the background of the learned Ms Trump. Back when Slovenia was still part of Yugoslavia Melanija’s father was a member of the Communist Party. He was the manager of a State enterprise. ROTFL! She and Donald were trully made for each other!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melania_Trump
Oh, I will, Briefly. In fact, I’ll be in touch with her office tomorrow – has she set one up yet?
Wow didn’t realise the Melania Trump plagiarising of MObama was quite so blatant.
https://twitter.com/mikehearn/status/755260215021432832
matt @ #110 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:28 pm
Not quite sure what you mean by “$3/box for any brand-name pharmaceuticals”.
If I interpret it correctly, that it is only charged to the brand-name and not generics, then it is not a bad thing as you can get the generic without the surcharge and save the PBS money while getting the same drugs.
matt @ #115 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:33 pm
Not yet that I know of..but send her a note C/- walabor.org.au
don @ #104 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:08 pm
You sure are sensitive about someone using the term ‘religion’ informally. What is so bizarre about someone seeing atheism as a form of religion? And what is so bizarre about someone saying they are neither a believer or unbeliever and quite content with not needing to be either? You asked me a question and I answered. I was unaware that tolerance only applies to those who fit in a religious box with a label. And how you came up with Happy Clappy out of that is beyond me.
bemused
‘No zoomster, that bit in bold is not true.’
given that my post was in response to someone who was doing exactly that, I’m sorry, it is.
People argued that the new system would wipe out minor parties. They argued that this would be beneficial. Much the same people are now pointing to the fact minor parties still exist, and arguing that that is beneficial. That’s spin at the very least, if not downright hypocrisy.
Of course that was not the only argument put forward – the one you advance was another one, but I’m talking about the argument I’m talking about, not all the ones which were advanced at the time.
zoomster @ #120 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:38 pm
There were some absurd arguments put on both sides.
Yep, the video I linked to via twitter plays them side-by-side and amply demonstrates the plagiarism.
I remember in 2008 the News Ltd commentators trying to shame Obama’s use of a teleprompter, but are silent about this massive embarrassment at the RNC. Starting to see why they had trouble getting speakers.
briefly @ #118 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:35 pm
Her email there is anne.aly@walabor.org.au, but by now she should have her parliamentary email which is probably anne.aly.mp@aph.gov.au
Confessions
Snap! You have to laugh at it. That clip is only part of it. Other parts of the Michelle Obama speech were lifted too.
Whatever Trump is paying his speechwriters, its way too much!
@Don
Just so you know my informal use of the word religion is quite common. See:
Religion
noun
1.
a set of beliefs concerning the cause, nature, and purpose of the universe, especially when considered as the creation of a superhuman agency or agencies, usually involving devotional and ritual observances, and often containing a moral code governing the conduct of human affairs.
2.
a specific fundamental set of beliefs and practices generally agreed upon by a number of persons or sects:
the Christian religion; the Buddhist religion.
3.
the body of persons adhering to a particular set of beliefs and practices:
a world council of religions.
4.
the life or state of a monk, nun, etc.:
to enter religion.
5.
the practice of religious beliefs; ritual observance of faith.
6.
something one believes in and follows devotedly; a point or matter of ethics or conscience:
to make a religion of fighting prejudice.
7.
religions, Archaic. religious rites:
painted priests performing religions deep into the night.
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/religion?s=t
bemused @ #123 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:42 pm
thanks bemused -:)
Re Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson, about her jailing over quashed corruption charges, Ms Hanson is:
‘…blaming Tony Abbott and John Howard for a “political witch-hunt” against her.’
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-blames-tony-abbott-and-john-howard-for-prison-sentence-in-new-documentary-20160718-gq7w0u.html
For once I think she’s right. I dont think Abbott or Howard had problems with what she said, they were worried about losing votes to a political loose cannon. Later, in the words of one of the Australian’s ever-venerable mouthpieces, John Howard ‘addressed the concerns’ of One Nation voters and corralled most of their votes for the Coalition.
Europe over 1000 years
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/this-is-how-europes-borders-have-changed-over-1-000-years?utm_content=bufferf8eeb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Confessions
Yes I would not hold my breath waiting for Andrew Bolt about this bit of plagiarism. I doubt Julie Bishop will say anything either….
Socrates:
The RNC has been trying for ages now to line up speakers for the Convention and one by one they’ve all pulled out. Hence Trump’s family stepping up to fill the void.
This is cringeworthy. Actual train wreck look away cringeworthy.
Some of the Poste Restantes around the world that I have had mail forwarded to would make even your hair curl Bemused.
I remember one night when I slept on the Spanish Steps, hugging onto my backpack for dear life as the Homeless (and Smelly) Of Rome tried to take it away from me. Eventually I fell asleep, only to be woken up by the sound of an angry crowd.
Very unfortunately (for the Basques, especially) it was the morning that Franco was about to have garotted half a dozen Separatists (1975, twas). A mob of Rome’s youth had gathered in the obvious spot to protest, burn a few cars and punch out the lights of as many Italian Riot Police as they could.
I had sent a letter, for want of something better, to a winsome California Girl I had met in London, addressed only as “Poste Restante, American Express, Rome), begging her to meet me next door to the Amex office (as it was then located), on the Spanish Steps.
Imagine my horreur when I fronted said Amex office and found that not only was I surrounded by drunks and derros, plus the apoplectic Youth Of Rome, but that Amex was on strike, the place was occupied by the staff (who had boarded up the entrance)… and wasclosed for the duration.
Taking pity on me, the very nice Italian Amex gentleman behind the barricades nevertheless went inside and found a reply from my California Girl. She’d meet me in Geneva.
Off I trotted to Rome Central Station, caught a train to Geneva (I had to stand nearly all the way, except for the last few kilometers inside Switzerland), and found a home in the Geneva Youth Hostel (they had them in those day, youse know). After a week, just as I was about to give up and go back to London, there she was, blonde and beautiful as I had remember her, standing at the bottom of the Youth Hostel steps.
We had a great adventure, which it is not appropriate to repeat in detail on this blog. Suffice it say that in Munich I found that she could drink more Oktoberfest beer than me, or any other person in the Lowenbrau marquis tent we came to call home. That, any many other revelations, actually.
We have been friends ever since, even up until today, when I spoke to her on the phone, long distance.
She told me that when she got to the Amex office in Rome, they ripped the barricades apart, invited her inside and offered her coffee and cakes. a pretty girl can do that to a hot-blooded Roman male, much more than a hairy Australian bloke can, that’s for sure.
Probably for the best, she went back to Palo Alto and married the boy next door. They are still married, and now retired. A few years later had the good fortune to land a job with a little company (back then at least) called “Apple”, just when it was starting up, and because they couldn’t afford to pay him cash, they paid him in shares. The rest is history.
As for the Poste Restante, Amex, Rome, I went back there a few years ago, but I couldn’t find the office.
Maybe it’s moved, but my memories of it have not.
Confessions
Yes it is cringeworthy. But given my view of Trump and the republicans, I prfer to call it Schardenfest 2016 (add smiley face here).
Looking through the two speeches, I think the plagiarism may have been even worse than it looked. The only differnce in two paragraphs appear to be some words Melania Trump may have left out by mistake. I’d love to compare her original teleprompter words with Obama’s.
zoomster – as someone who argued strongly for the Senate voting reforms before they were put through, and who didn’t use any of the arguments you outlined, I’d appreciate it if you referred to specific posters and/or specific arguments rather than “people argued for this and they are now hypocrites!”
This is so appropriate for Fizza.
https://twitter.com/nobby15/status/755292299458809856
I don’t think Melania Trump was put up there on the podium to give a speech due to her intellect.
jackol @ #133 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:58 pm
Seconded.
The NY Times has a fuller comparison of the Trump speech and the Michelle Obama original. Even the structure is the same. The only points where the speeches differ are where details of Obama’s life story had to be replaced with Melania’s.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/us/politics/melania-trump-speech.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Confessions I take your point about the lack of big names (and presumably money) assisting the Trump campaign. They are headed for a trainwreck. Xanthippe thinks that, despite all that boasting, Trump is not as wealthy as he acts and has less money to put into it than the Repugs may have assumed. Fun times! Happily, that means the US Supreme court will get a badly needed makeover in the next two years, with the recent departure of some of the very partisan RW judges.
@Zoomster
The Liberals may have told you it would eliminate small parties, but the Greens said the opposite, that minor parties with real public support would be elected just fine. I’ve done others here the courtesy of showing where in Hansard Labor was saying the reform would wipe out minor parties, I’d appreciate if you could show me where the Greens said the same: if you can.
Some debates like this can get tedious and I get that, but please let’s not let each other rewrite history. Hansard is available to all of us and what the Greens did and didn’t say is in black and white.
Greens Co-Deputy Leader Scott Ludlam said on the 16th of March at 9AM:
“If the numbers in this chamber are not reflective of a mix of Labor, Green and progressive Independents then it is because we have not persuaded a majority of the electorate that our ideas should prevail all the way into the legislature. So rather than fighting sensible changes that will finally stop senators from being elected by Glenn Druery’s random number generator, get out and campaign on the issues that people actually care about.”
C@Tmomma
We might say the same about Donald!
phoenixgreen @ #138 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 9:08 pm
To my considerable horror I am in full agreement with a Green. Quite well put.
Unlike Turnbull, Trump has refused to put any of his own money into the GOP campaign, and has instead skived off the RNC to 100% fund his campaign for POTUS. Perhaps your Xanthippe is onto something. 🙂
bemused
phoenix is not admitting the silliness of combining senate reform with DD
if you want a low quota for proportional rep then be consistent for all election dont set up circumstances that favour rebranded RW
i have zero tolerance for hanson – q and a was a disgrace (this has been said elsewhere) i hope speaker throws book at and into her big mouth at every opportunity and contradict her smugness about freedom of speech
Fess @9:11pm:
Possibly. Or Trump’s simply a cheapskate who thought he could run a “joke” candidacy to drum up business for his businesses. If so, it’s failed.
Socrates,
I just read that Trumps new campaign matter suggested the plagiarism of Michelle Obama’s speech by Melania Trump was no biggie because ‘both speeches expressed common values with common words’!!
So, universal sentiments common to all presumptive First Ladies, apparently. : )
Um, that should be ‘campaign manager’. Sheesh! When I need to go to bed it becomes obvious. : )
Confessions
Yes Xanthippe was also aware of Trump’s lack of personal ca,paign funding – nothing has gone in beyond what has been donated to him. Some of her US friends think that, like many people in real estate, Trump is assett rich but cash poor, and like many investors has big debts too. A dice roller, like Alan Bond.
C@Tmomma
Obviously, honesty is not one of those common values. (Smiley face)
Speaking of which, I notice Melania airbrushed out any mention of her father’s communist party membership, or that his “business background” was in running a state owned enterprise under Tito’s Yugoslavia.
Did anyone else find it suspicious or noteworthy that The Greens were palling around with the Liberals in Melbourne Ports, when, or if, they sprung the Labor guys attacking posters?
Socrates,
Anyone who ran a State Owned Enterprise for Tito would not have been the most savoury of characters.
Night all. : )