The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:
• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.
• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.
• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.
• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.
• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.
I feel quite bad about this anti-Muslim hysteria and wish there was more I could do to confront it.
I have quite a number of Muslim friends who are mostly quite secular and will enjoy a glass of ‘halal’ wine with me. One day one referred to going to church and I pulled him up and said you mean the mosque don’t you. he just replied WTTE “yeah, yeah, whatever, all the same….” Make of that what you will.
A couple of others are a bit more serious about it and one wears a hijab and they cannot be enticed to try the ‘halal’ wine. Otherwise, same as the others.
So what can I do to make my Muslim friends and other Muslims more comfortable?
Whenever I encounter one I make a point of giving them a friendly smile and treating them no different to anyone else.
I just feel embarrassed by the hysteria and how they must be feeling. It’s just not right and the people responsible should be dealt with by being challenged at all opportunities.
Not really much more you can do is there. Just treat people like people (even Libs).
The best way to defeat Hanson and One Nation is to campaign against them on what she votes for ,or against in the senate.The government is saying they have a mandate to pass their budget and my observation from watching Hanson on Q & A last night was that she was inclined to pass government measures as they had a “mandate” or wtte.I wonder how the supporters of One Nation will take to being charged a GP co-payment or the myriad of other service cut backs that the Libs wish to impose.?
The decline in the polled LNP PV is a continuation of the trend that commenced early this year…a trend interrupted but not altered by the election campaign.
greg mcauliffe @ #2 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:58 pm
The best thing to do is to:
a) demand that Hanson apologises to all Australians;
b) call on Hanson to renounce the politics of fear and hate;
c) oppose the policies of repression;
d) otherwise ignore her, while;
e) campaigning to her supporters around the substantive issues of the economy and social equality.
The decline in the polled LNP PV is a continuation of the trend that commenced early this year…a trend interrupted but not altered by the election campaign.
The observation that Turnbull benefited from not actually having to govern for two months holds a bit of water I reckon. The continuation of the trend from Feb – May now that they actually have to try and fake being a government is pretty likely.
I think a lot of voters got fooled (by the media) into thinking that Malcolm would win well and then tack to the left (after throwing off his shackles). That was the big scam of the last election. Now they’ve got buyérs remorse.
ratsak @ #5 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 3:05 pm
I agree
RATSAK – For some voters, once Malcolm stopped governing and started campaigning, they didn’t have to square the conflict between what they hoped of him and what he was actually doing. They could dream again about unshackled Malcolm. Now, of course, they are starting to wake up.
The best thing to do is to:
a) demand that Hanson apologises to all Australians;
b) call on Hanson to renounce the politics of fear and hate;
c) oppose the policies of repression;
d) otherwise ignore her, while;
e) campaigning to her supporters around the substantive issues of the economy and social equality.
d) and e). The others just feed into her (and her supporters) delusions of oppression. The stupidity of Hansonism can be safely allowed to play itself out and show itself to be a useless to all but the most extreme of those who might be fooled into buying it for a while.
The answer is to stay positive, find the common ground with those who have gone to her because the majors have ‘failed’ them, and largely ignore her blatherings. Much like with Abbott if you just leave her in a vacuum without rising to the bait she will over-reach and prove herself without doubt a dope.
The only ones you need to really attack are the Libs if they decide to try Howard’s trick of appropriating her policies in order to catch the dupes. Turnbull in particular is susceptible to this as what is left of his moderate support can be further eroded if he tries to play footsies with loons who will never accept him anyway.
From my recollection, Sam Dastyari on Kitchen Cabinet recently said he wasn’t a Muslim so someone maybe causing mischief?
On Twitter today Dastyari said he’s not religious but was born a Muslim.
The libs have found their template for future elections. Find someone who is allegedly “progressive”, shove him/her out the front and try to win the election before anyone cottons on.
Julie Bishop, come on down.
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham 24m24 minutes ago
Some reports now saying AEC going straight to full recount in #Herbert starting Wed/Thurs in variance of usual procedure. #ausvotes
ratsak @ #9 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 3:14 pm
There’s a not-so fine line between Abbott – who would create arbitrary powers to render persons stateless and subject to indefinite imprisonment – and Hanson’s arbitrary exercise of rejection and exclusion. Doubtless, there will be voices inside the LNP who will be wondering how they can annex Hanson’s messaging. Of course, they would do it if it would not also be immediately self-wedging.
From the previous thread.
simon katich @ #1060 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:16 pm
Yes, the widespread reintroduction of Greek knowledge from the Muslim occupied parts of Europe were certainly a major driving force that has led to the West’s dominant position in the World.
I certainly have no fear of Muslims and there is certainly a high chance of my next move will be to a Muslim majority country.
Having survived the last six years on Vietnamese roads and having traveled through the Middle East and other Muslim countries I can safely say Vietnam is an infinitely more dangerous place with possibly the exception of Egypt where they drive around at night with no headlights on, for reasons that were never adequately explained.
Hanson is a radical reactionary and an illusionist. Most of all, she is engaged in trickery – trickery of voters as well as self-trickery.
Re Islam: yes, most Muslims want to live peacefully in Australia. Yes, some of them drink alcohol and do a range of rather secular things.
However, Sunni Islam is the most pre-modern of pre-modern faiths. There has been no Reformation or Counter-Reformation within Islam. There are no clearly-defined sects or denominations of Sunni Islam that allow adherents to eschew sharia law or other pre-modern practices in relation to sexuality, the role of women, the transfer of wealth across generations within a closely-defined family (which has always been a barrier to success in business), etc, etc. Shia Islam has such sects (eg, the Khojas and Bohras), but not Sunni Islam.
Adherents of Sunni Islam who flourish in modern Western countries do so in spite of the teachings of their religion, not because of them. And countries with large Sunni populations that have managed to get ahead economically have generally done so through the imposition by authoritarian/military governments of a strong degree of secularism/multiculturalism on their societies: think Turkey, Egypt, etc.
It’s a real problem, and it’s no good pretending otherwise. This is not to support Pauline Hanson’s insensitive arguments. But it’s also to give the lie to any thought that the average Australian Sunni Muslim is someone like Waleed Aly.
Anyone who is afraid of Muslims should travel to Indonesia. Spent a wonderful new years eve in Solo in Java a few years ago.
Everyone out on the streets celebrating and no drunken yobbos or aggression to be seen anywhere. Mind you I wouldn’t have minded a drink, but all the hotel bars seemed closed.
think big @ #11 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 3:19 pm
In some Muslim countries a child’s religion is defined by their father’s.
As a result it can be illegal for a non-Muslim man to marry a Muslim woman.
For the wedding to be allowed the man must convert to Islam.
The opposite is not always true, (although in some countries it is,) a Muslim man marrying a non-Muslim woman, as any children will be automatically classed as Muslims.
With the next election probably only two years away because of the vagaries of the Senate terms, Shorten is clearly poised as the alernative Leader of the nation at that time.
Turnbull’s longevity as PM depends on how his new Government performs. Therre is no evidence that I’m aware of that shows they’ll be any more united or coherrent than in the last term. The Conservative rump have been excluded from power. It’s ineresting that the younger nd more ambitious Conservatives have sued for peace and have been rewarded with promotions in the Ministry.
No doubt the “more experieced” rump will feel marginalised. However, they are likely to keep their powder dry for a divisive assault on the Government later in the term.
adrian @ #18 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 3:42 pm
Yes, it certainly stands out like dog’s balls when you see a drunk person in public.
I’m not so sure about the idea of a 2018 election. After the contempt Turnbull showed conventions to get this election timing I’ve no doubt he’d happily go for late June 2019 election again. It’s not like his 2019 budget (should they make it that far) will be any more considered than the last one. It will probably still feature 2014 budget measures they can’t pass but won’t drop because it would reveal the real depths of their failure.
ratsak @ #22 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 3:59 pm
But that scenario would require a separate half Senate election in May at the latest.
A late June half-Senate election is not possible because the election must be called so that the Senate count can be finished before the 1st of July. Early to mid-June is the latest the half-Senate election can be held. If the elections are being separately, then we could be waiting until September 2019 for a House election.
Given the history between Hanson and Abbott, I’d imagine she would be licking her lips were Abbott ever re-elected as PM by the Libs.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-blames-tony-abbott-and-john-howard-for-prison-sentence-in-new-documentary-20160718-gq7w0u.html
Ratsak said: Much like with Abbott if you just leave her in a vacuum without rising to the bait she will over-reach and prove herself without doubt a dope.
———-
Having endured the excruciating, witless, incoherent ignorance of Hanson on Monday’s Q&A, I’m not sure what else she needs to do to prove she is a dope.
Within the intellectual pool of humanity, Hanson is a bottom feeder who stirs up the toxic mud a layer below the likes of Trump and Palin. In Australia, it’s hard to imagine another politician as obviously stupid as Hanson.
greensborough growler @ #25 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 4:08 pm
Hi GG…trust all is well with you!
“The GuardianVerified account
@guardian
Melania Trump convention speech seems to plagiarize Michelle Obama’s 2008 address”
“jillsinger @snooplady 7m7 minutes ago
jillsinger Retweeted The Guardian
It doesn’t seem to. It does”
What an insipid rag the The Guardian is.
Forecasts are a dime a dozen – but for whats it worth – in relation to the new term of government, the budget etc
Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/deltecs-lele-sees-commodity-prices-will-be-decimated-20160719-gq8n2r#ixzz4EpiOLVPe
briefly,
Going really well.
Have been very busy with my business interests.
Haven’t posted much because this post election period has been rather surreal. I suppose people have not had much to talk about. But, being PB, that never stops recycling, regurgitating and repeating.
Cheers.
greensborough growler @ #30 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 4:29 pm
I’m very glad to hear it, GG.
You’re right about the politics…surreal is the word.
For the second election in a row it looks like the Liberals are not going to get a honeymoon.
“The GuardianVerified account @guardian
Melania Trump convention speech seems to plagiarize Michelle Obama’s 2008 address”
“jillsinger @snooplady 7m7 minutes agojillsinger Retweeted The Guardian
It doesn’t seem to. It does”
What an insipid rag the The Guardian is.
Odd comment, given that is exactly what Melania did. It’s almost word for word!!!!
“For the second election in a row it looks like the Liberals are not going to get a honeymoon.”
Yeah, but they’ll still screw the electorate.
Labor fascists arrested. Shouldn’t surprise anyone that they’re linked to the vicious moron Danby. They should all be expelled from the party before they end up in jail.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/friends-of-labor-leader-bill-shorten-arrested-for-alleged-vandalism-spree-on-election-morning-20160715-gq6viw.html
darn @ #32 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 4:34 pm
…so it seems…I think there is a fair bit of voter-fatigue and generally low levels of confidence in the process. The election result is essentially inconclusive. Voters will be wary of this.
phoenixgreen @ #35 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 4:37 pm
What! No hyperbole?? Good to see you calling for calm and the application of due process in this matter.
PG – Surely, you should have DiNatale arrested for vandalising the Greens.
@KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Respond to crime casually with a partisan barb. Shows your level.
Another trick question re the Herbert recount.
Do we get updates/progress counts via the AEC website or is it just announced at the completion of the process
PG – Thank God you never indulge in partisan barbs
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/07/mckibbin-rba-should-use-helicopter-not-qe/
Warwick McKibbin makes friends with Bill Mitchell.
PG,
You need a Bex and a good lie down.
Kudos to our local ABC announcer this morning.
A “I don’t support Pauline Hanson but..’ type rang in.
Every statement he made was contradicted by the announcer – using those actual fact things – and every time he was contradicted, he backed down.
He tried “they don’t integrate like my Spanish, Croatian etc friends have” and was countered with “that takes time, doesn’t it?” – which he agreed with.
Then it was “they have their own religious schools” which was met with “So do Catholics.”
And so on – a very nice little object lesson in how to deal with these issues, and very gently done by the broadcaster.
sceptic @ #1019 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 12:34 pm
If Mal gets majority government, can anyone say how many votes it would have taken in his most marginal seat to have finished with hung parliament.
—————————-
Assuming Labor holds the seat of Herbert after the recount, a hung Parliament of 75 seats was avoided by around 550 votes in Forde [1,072 votes 2PP] and Capricornia [1,084] in QLD as the count stands at the moment.
550 votes going to Labor in either seat would have produced a 75/70/5 result. So much for Malcolm’s 550 vote mandate huh !
‘Respond to crime casually with a partisan barb.’
If only he’d demonstrated your cool headed approach to the issue, PG. You are an example to us all.
Robert Baird @rj_baird 7m7 minutes ago
Robert Baird Retweeted AEC
The AEC to commence full recount of #Herbert votes on Thurs, in lieu of full pref. distribution. Deadline is Aug 8.
@Briefly, @KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Cheers, was just checking to see whether anyone had the nerve to defend these people. There are some people in the world who actually condone these fascist tactics, to silence opponents, destroy election materials and attack volunteers. Here’s hoping Labor (and all parties) don’t hesitate to boot such people where they’re discovered.
PG,
We’re laughing at you, not with you.
phoenixgreen @ #48 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 5:10 pm
They will have the chance to defend themselves in court. You might try to charge, prosecute and condemn them in the eyes of the bludgers…but no-one is really gonna give a rats.