Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. daretotread @ #2538 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    Nicloe and others
    Probably best not to bandy around psychological terms without thought. Psychopaths are very special sorts of people as are narcissists. trump does not seem a psychopath but he may be a narcissist. He may just be odd and a showman. is he just a man with a little one who need to overcompensate.
    The real issue is does he have any brains or is he ruled by emotions and off the cuff thoughts.

    Yes, that’s kinda what I was saying. You’d need to see my original post. Such diagnoses would not surprise me but I am certainly not one to be making them. I have a fascination though with people who lack empathy and have no conscience as a victim of trauma. I once was so naive I believed everyone was like me. What a silly little idealistic twit I was. I should not be so hard on myself I suppose. I just wanted to see the best in everyone. A tough live and learn, that one.

  2. So anyone that professes to follow Senator Sanders will vote for Hillary Clinton for President. If they don’t they don’t follow Senator Sanders its that simple.

  3. For those who don’t know the late Don Dale was a CLP politician, who was so slimy and appalling that senior members of the CLP residing in his electorate voted either Labor or invalid.

    On the face of it a separate RC is required because the issues go way beyond both sexual abuse, and this local level abuse. But I also don’t trust the current federal or NT governments to give it the charter & resources to properly investigate all relevant matters.

  4. vanOnselenP: So the dumped minister in NT remains AG, Justice & Disability Services minister & wait for it, Children & Family & Mental Health minister!

  5. Philipptg: @harperkiwibird @craigjack36 @GChristensenMP @corybernardi If they remain silent then they expose themselves as being morally blind.

  6. mcleaway: It’s not looking good for the TPP in US Congress lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/07/2…

    Sorry posted wrong tweet. Still a valid point was made of course. This is what I was I intended to post.

    No TPP I think is great news. Means less isolation for China.

  7. That suggests to me that they knew the system was completely broken.

    Without getting all Godwin’s it’s hardly a new phenomenon. In a system that supports people to be caring, considerate etc, and sanctions violence and offence most people conform to the dominant mores.

    When the system’s restrictions and rewards are reversed most people can be found to adapt to that by playing the game even if that means unspeakable acts committed on other people. All the system needs do is identify the ‘others’ so that they can be dehumanised and have enough sanctions in place to scare most out of questioning what they’re doing.

    It happens everywhere all the time, Nazi Germany and most other oppressive dictatorships are just the extreme examples. It’s a common danger in military and military like systems where there is a strict hierarchy and strong sanctions against ‘following orders’.

    Obviously the NT situation is something similar. If it was just a few rogues there would be comprehensive filmed evidence. This was obviously just part of the job. “It’s what we do”.

    Hopefully it gives us all pause, and especially a government running very secretive offshore detention centres, to critically think about some of the systems we have in place, not just in juvenile detention, and make sure these systems rewards and sanctions are properly aligned with the sort of standards we really want to see. The kind of fear mongering and dehumanising of ‘other’ people we see so much of lately is exactly the sort of environment that allows these broken and abusing systems to thrive.

  8. AusHumanRights: NT Government ‘shouldn’t be part of juvenile detention royal commission’ abc.net.au/news/2016-07-2… via @ABCNews

  9. [Elferink was born in the Netherlands]
    The simple and obvious solution is to ban all migration from Holland.

    [Elferink graduated with a Bachelor of Laws from the University of New England]
    Even I was offered a place to study at that Law School. Rather low TER requirement from memory.

  10. jolyon wagg @ #2502 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 11:51 am

    Ralph Nader and the Greens helped elect George Bush in 2000.
    Jill Stein and the Greens are happy to increase the chances of Trump winning in 2016.
    It is that particular brand of stupidity that will stop me from ever giving the Greens a first preference.

    That highlights the major problem with first past the post.
    If two candidates split the Left or Right vote then the opposite candidate is hugely advantaged.

  11. greg mcauliffe @ #2565 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    From Essential Today
    Two Party Preferred: 26 July 2016
    Labor
    52%+1
    Coalition
    48%-1

    If one thing emerged during the election campaign, it was voter-fatigue with politics-as-usual. Ns sooner has the election been held – though still not actually decided – and the LNP have immediately resumed exactly that game.

    Now that campaign messaging has been suspended and normal broadcasting has resumed, we should expect the slide in the popularity of the LNP to also re-commence.

  12. Scullian another waste of space using the Sgt Shultz defence presser re 4 CNRS more ums and ahs than a novice at a Toastmasters seminar and as much sense where do the Libs/Nats find them. No wonder the Noalition want to remove the abc from the media circus when it brings it to our screens. If the abc aired this 2-3 weeks ago is might have removed the abbort/turncoat to the dustbin.

  13. This NT issue is going to put Manus firmly in the spotlight. If this sort of abuse can slide under the radar, how can the government possibly justify the secrecy shrouding operations in offshore detention?

  14. Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion says he wasn’t told about abuse of children in detention in NT, nor had it “piqued his interest”.

    Child abuse didn’t excite Scullion’s interest?
    This is the equivalent of don’t know, don’t care.
    No wonder people are dissatisfied with him. But Malcolm reappointed him.
    Sigh.

  15. boerwar @ #2581 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 3:02 pm

    PvO calling for Scullion’s resignation.

    This is the least that should be required.

    The scope of the RC should be widened to include the whole range of policing, judicial processes, imprisonment and post-imprisonment of Aboriginal people in all the jurisdictions, including, not least, the existence and application of mandatory detention laws. These laws should be repealed but in any case the effects of these and allied laws and practices should be the subject of open scrutiny.

  16. Stan Grant
    Stan Grant

    Things once seen cannot be unseen: the images of those boys, tear-gassed, beaten, held down, locked up, hooded. These boys that look like my boys.

    And that would be things that occurred under the watch of the Coalition government over the last 3 years. A Coalition that Stan wanted to become a part of.

  17. As no one else has made the comment yet….

    Doesn’t it speak volumes about the CLP Senator for the Northern Territory and Minister for Indigenous Affairs that, on the night that a special report was going to be aired into HIS area of responsibility, his interest wasn’t ‘piqued’ enough to cancel a dinner engagement with his staff member and their family and stay home and watch that episode of 4 Corners!?!

  18. BK…yes. She has to be much more than a token voice. I hope she can be a force for change, along with Pat Dodson. This is so overdue.

    It really is time to stand up. We have to extend the reach of Reconciliation to include acts of Restoration…acts that will reinstate the rights and powers of Aboriginal people…In my heart-of-hearts, I think this is fundamental to our democracy, to citizenship, to our continuing self-determination. We should recognise that what has been revealed on 4C is not exceptional. It is only an extension of everything that has come before. Until we resolve to recognise the dispossession of the first peoples and resolve to rescind their oppression, we will be domed to repeat it.

  19. And Ken Wyatt, the only Indigenous Member of the federal Coalition has said what about last night’s episode of 4 Corners?

    *crickets*

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