The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:
• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.
• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.
• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.
• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.
• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.
AusHumanRights: Coming up: Midday press conference re #DonDale with @MickGooda @GillianTriggs @MeganM4Kids humanrights.gov.au/news/alerts/me…
Ralph Nader and the Greens helped elect George Bush in 2000.
Jill Stein and the Greens are happy to increase the chances of Trump winning in 2016.
It is that particular brand of stupidity that will stop me from ever giving the Greens a first preference.
lol, I just worked out by accident how to get bold type. Testing.
ABC: NEW: Federal officials believe Russian gov’t-affiliated operatives hacked DNC, pushed material to Wikileaks in attempt to influence election
briefly
Given that this discussion started about the Trump/Sanders voters I think your description apt.
Both are seen as “anti-heroes”
The end of Adam Giles, I’d say.
Guytaur
Yes Russian payback time.
For years and years the west (USA and UK) have been using various strategies to undermine governments they do not like – they use emails and fake protest groups etc. Where they can they undermine the government and cause protest and disruption. It has been a very successful strategy, although it has backfired a few times. russia, to an extent Syria, all of Latin America, Eastern Europe and sometimes China have been the recipients of this social disruption action. Weak governments, economic crisis, racial and religious tensions etc can each be used to spread dissent and weaken governments. even if the governments are not overthrown it distracts them from action that is not in the interests of the USA, UK or its businesses.
However since the GFC the western nations are themselves much weaker, with racial and religious tensions etc. Naturally China and Russia will seize this opportunity for a bit of payback. In international relations what goes round come around. not since the 1930s and early 1950s has Russia had any opportunity to mess with the USA/UK head. Now that the USA is weakened economically there is a bit of pay back.
I would not take it too seriously.
Economic management, traditionally a strength for conservative parties, is usually the most important issue for voters in determining how they will vote, illustrating how successful Labor’s Medicare scare campaign was.
Let’s just say that the voters certainly weren’t rewarding the Coalition for Economic Management at the election either.
And, for the umpteenth time, it wasn’t a scare campaign, it was the truth about the Coalition’s intentions with Medicare!
daretotread @ #2505 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 11:54 am
I think there’s a great deal about politics that resembles fiction these days. Both the commentators and the practitioners of politics refer to “narrative” when trying to understand and explain events. Campaigning is built around “personal story”, “themes” and “character”. Politicians are identified and become known/interpreted by their on-screen personas. The whole thing looks like, sounds like, reads like and smells like stagecraft. So it makes perfect sense to me that voters respond to politics and politicians as if the whole thing is merely dramatic construct – as if it’s yet another escapist art form – as if it is soap.
But, of course, politics is not soap. It is about power, position, the exercise of judgment, the creation and protection of rights, accountability, the fulfilment of duty, the content of the law, the economy, the social and cultural order. It’s a relentlessly serious business.
c@tmomma @ #2508 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 12:04 pm
Too right. The reason Labor’s messages on health were so effective was because they were replays of the lived experiences of millions of voters.
I see mention of Jill Stein but what about Gary Johnson? He’s polling more than double what Jill Stein is, and is likely to be getting more disaffected conservatives.
NT Prisons Minister Elferink has been sacked.
Mmm. Clarification. Elferink has had responsibility for Prisons taken from him. Unclear if he has lost position as NT AG>
From the other thread…very tense counting in Townsville
There appear to be just 8 booths still to be re-counted in Herbert.
Adam Giles trying out:
– I’ve never seen the ‘vision’; and
I’m co-operating with George Brandis.
….
Whoever wins Herbert it will be a remarkable example of the effect of the preferential voting system. Cathy O’Toole has just 30.46% of the PV compared with 35.5% for the LNP.
Rod Hagen
Someone needs to go on the basis of Four Corners last night it was absolutely disgusting.
How long I wonder has this dreadful behaviour been going on .
Bloody disgraceful and a stain on our country poor kids have probably had this terror reigned on them for a long time.
What is the Northen Territory Premier doing about this?
Probably oblivious!
Just for Dtt –
nicole @ #2460 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:40 am
I always thought he was a narcissist first and foremost.
Elferink might go down in history as one of its worst ministers – mmm – what is his background again?
Shellbell
The NT Govt being splayed as we watch.
For mine, the saddest aspects of the Don Dale problems is that it comes 20+ years after the deaths in custody RC.
Dated yesterday, so maybe it was posted already but I don’t recall it.
How exactly does the recount work. Do they have 2 piles of votes ( labor/lnp) and go through them counting only the ones that are in the wrong pile ? Thus currently at +59 to labor that means there are 59 votes that should be labor that were previously counted for the lnp…
The parliament will be a better place without Ewen Jones. He was just a bumptious loudmouth. Did the ‘hale fellow, well met’ stuff but, as that footage of him and Morrison from the election campaign demonstrated, when the cameras were off he was just another nasty bastard. Where does the LNP find them?
“Where does the LNP find them?”
‘Private’ schools.
Great idea – taxpayer funded young lib incubators.
Thanks Ctari
It is a sensible move for any underdeveloped country. Cuba and China did something similar.
One Nation preferences mistakenly put in the Liberal National party candidate’s column rather than Labor’s
Just goes to prove there are One Nation voters who preference Labor second.
Bonza
Johnson is the Libertarian candidate. He will attract the conservative Republicans who cannot stand trump but could not vote Hillary. He might get some Chrstians too – the cruz voters.
However I cannot see him getting the Sanders crowd in large numbers. Ron Paul when a Libertarian had a bit of charisma but not really sure about Johnson.
Whilst this is almost certainly the stake through the heart of the CLP maladministration (which even made Abbott’s efforts look half competent), Labor should be wary. The shit exposed doesn’t look like the sort of thing that has cropped up overnight. When you have thugs happily doing their thing when they know they are being filmed then the problems are systemic and go far beyond what we’ve seen so far.
tpof @ #2520 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 12:37 pm
The lines are so blurry. I think that’s why I prefer to stick to traits rather than give diagnoses on the most part. I would not be at all surprised if he was all three. He’s an A-hole and wannabe saviour (Make America Great Again; Make America Safe Again). Maybe he thinks he’s the Messiah. 😀
Cat
Up in Herbert there are quite of lot of One nation then ALP voters. have a look where One Nation is strongest. It is traditional Labor seats but in outer suburbs and regional areas.
One Nation is to the West like Greens are to the Inner City.
Dtt – Agreed. Cuban doctors are sort of stuff you want to be available if you happen to feel not well in some scruffy place.
I’m not sure I can see how being identified as Russia’s preferred POTUS can be anything but another big negative for Trump.
It’s amazing that the abuse occurred when the officers knew they were on CCTV. That suggests to me that they knew the system was completely broken.
daretotread @ #2533 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 1:14 pm
Yup….Pop-Left/Pop-Right…
Nicloe and others
Probably best not to bandy around psychological terms without thought. Psychopaths are very special sorts of people as are narcissists. trump does not seem a psychopath but he may be a narcissist. He may just be odd and a showman. is he just a man with a little one who need to overcompensate.
The real issue is does he have any brains or is he ruled by emotions and off the cuff thoughts.
Dio
I have a far more horrid thought. They luuuurved it is several senses of the word. home made porn.
Adrian,
Ewen Jones was born in Quilpie, so I assume he was a Boarder.
This is Quilpie, which is in the Channel country, west of Charleville:
The economy of the area is based on the grazing and mining industries. The area has one of the largest deposits of boulder opal in the world, and also has extensive deposits of gas and oil.
Given the Essential polls since the election, I sense of “what have we done!”. If Turnbull challenges for a new election in Herbert, it could be a massacre and further threaten his leadership. Malcolm best let sleeping dogs lie.
ratsak @ #2531 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 1:13 pm
Quite right. The anguish and the oppression of Aboriginal people is anything but new.
I hope the AEC carries out some more recounts in Queensland seats…..
Excellent speech by Senator Bernie Sanders.
Last line. I am proud to stand with Hillary Clinton.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/how-lisa-singh-beat-labors–machine-men-20160725-gqdf05.html
I’m sure Bill did ring her with congratulations.
Even if only by accident, Singh has beautifully gamed the OPV system to deliver Labor a 5th Senator. Even an accidental act of genius is an act of genius.
Firstly she has almost certainly attracted votes from people who would not otherwise have voted Labor. But secondly by splitting the quota that would have gone to Labor’s 4th Senator and added these non-Labor votes she has increased the value of those votes to elect 2 Senators when if they had not been split they likely would have only elected one and had the surplus simply make the 2nd Green safer and open up the opportunity for an NJ like PHON.
It can only work where a candidate with massive personal support is put in an ‘unwinnable’ spot, and probably only in Tasmania. But smart players from the majors will be looking closely at what Singh’s done. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if at the next half Senate election Singh is given third spot and they try and pull off the same trick again by turning a 2+ surplus vote into 3 senators by taking advantage of the fact the last senator’s are elected on less than surplus. The Libs will probably want to try the same thing. Assuming Lambie gets a 6 year term Lab and Libs will want to be maximising their chance in the 6th seat.
BernieSanders: Never tweet. twitter.com/realdonaldtrum…
vogon poet @ #2525 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 12:55 pm
I don’t know their procedure first hand. Maybe someone else here does but I imagine they would have to recount the lot of them. It seems votes from one booth are stored altogether, so as each booth is recounted they can see any discrepancies for that particular booth. It seems booth by booth, they adjust the count accordingly if and when required. It seems that postals, absentees, pre-polls, etc. are stored in separate lots likewise. The AEC page for Herbert is indicative of how they do it when you scroll down and study it.
Does anyone have an idea when the AEC intends to run the Senate preferences? I recall someone saying it should have been about now.
So can they recount the new bellweather seat of Robertson now so that Labor can win it and take government? ; )
Shellbell on Elferink
“in history as one of its worst ministers – mmm – what is his background again?”
Similar to Mutton Dutton. This from Wikipedia
“Elferink was born in the Netherlands and moved to Australia with his parents and older siblings as a three year old in 1968. His family settled in Darwin, and he subsequently graduated from Casuarina High School. In 1983, Elferink joined the Northern Territory Police as a cadet. He subsequently rose to the rank of Sergeant (Qualified to Senior Sergeant), and served in both Darwin and Alice Springs. While in the police force, he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts from Monash University in 1997, completing the course by distance education. In 2008 Elferink graduated with a Bachelor of Laws from the University of New England. He was admitted to the bar in October 2009.”