Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:
• ReachTEL has published a helpful table illustrating pollster accuracy, which is sporting of them given the attention it calls to the eye-watering accuracy of Newspoll. However, all concerned did very well in predicting a two-party preferred result which, by my back-of-envelope reading, will ultimately settle at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition. Essential and especially Ipsos overshot on support for the Greens, with the latter landing around 2% too low for both major parties, but the only other substantial errors involved the balance of support between the Liberals and the Nationals, which I don’t regard as particularly important. Electorate polls were a different matter, and will be looked at in greater detail when all the results are in.
• On the Tuesday evening following the election, Roy Morgan conducted an SMS poll poll from 3587 respondents on leadership approval. The poll had Malcolm Turnbull with a narrow 51-47 lead as preferred prime minister, which the Morgan release sets up for comparison with a 57-24 result from May. However, the May result was an interviewer-administered phone poll, a method evidently less conducive to a “neither/can’t say” response. The poll also found Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott by 71-25 as preferred Liberal leader, and Anthony Albanese leading Bill Shorten 49-48 for Labor.
Now to an exercise I’ve conducted to get a clearer sense of what sort of areas did and didn’t swing. The chart below shows results of a regression analysis on 6582 polling booth results in which two-party swing data was available, which excludes the 14 electorates where the AEC’s two-party count is not between Labor and the Coalition. The purpose here is to discern if the swing to Labor was more or less evident in areas with particular demographic characteristics. The results record a big move back to Labor in the ever-volatile mortgage belts; an apparent failure of the Abbott-to-Turnbull leadership switch to improve the Coalition’s standing in ethnic communities; and better swing results for the Coalition where voters were wealthier and better educated, and – perhaps more surprisingly – older.
After the constant and starting with “Age”, the table lists the associations between polling booth swings to the Coalition, which in practice usually means negative results recording swings to Labor, and five demographic variables for the census districts in which the booths were located. All but one of these variables, English spoken at home, records a statistically significant association with the swing, as indicated by a score of less than .05 in the significance column on the right. The “B” coefficient of .001 for “Age” tells us that areas with a median age of 40 would generally swing 1% more favourably for the Coalition than areas with a median age of 30. “MFY” stands for median weekly family income and is measured in thousands, so the coefficient means swings tended to be 0.3% stronger for the Coalition for every $1000 of average household income. “School” represents the percentage of the 18-plus population who had completed high school, every point of which associates with nearly 0.1% of swing in favour of the Coalition. Conversely, Labor did 0.02% better for every percentage point of mortgaged dwellings.
The five demographic variables are followed by geographic ones that are there to ensure the results for the demographic variables aren’t influenced by regional differences in the swing, particularly those from state to state. Sydney is excluded so it works as a baseline, so the coefficient for Melbourne tells us that the Coalition would typically do 2.6% better there than at a demographically identical booth in Sydney. Finally, two variables are listed to control for retiring member and sophomore surge effects, which prove to be significant in both cases. “LNPgain” was coded 1 where the candidate was a Coalition sophomore and -1 where a Coalition member was retiring; vice-versa in the case of Labor sophomores and retirees; and zero where neither applied. “ALPloss” was coded 1 where Labor lost the seat in 2013 and 0 otherwise, to measure the boost to the sophomore effect in seats where Labor had a sitting member defending last time. The results suggest Coalition members who won their seats from Labor in 2013 did 2.2% better in swing terms than other Coalition candidates, which reduces to 0.5% in seats where they were replacing retiring Coalition members.
To observe these effects in action, the four tables below identify the 15 highest and lowest ranked electorates by the four statistically significant demographic indicators, and show their two-party swings to the Coalition where available. The lowest education electorates, all of which are regional, were 4.0% worse for the Coalition than those at the top of the scale, of which all apart from Fenner in the ACT are near the centres of the largest cities. Median age was more of a mixed bag — old electorates are regional, but the young ones encompass inner cities, mortgage belts, enclaves, a defence town and the largely indigenous seat of Lingiari. Nonetheless, the distinction here is as great as it was for education, and not in the direction that might have been anticipated from a touted backlash over superannuation policy.
The lowest income electorates, all of which are regional other than two in Sydney, recorded an average 3.5% swing to Labor, only slightly above the national result. But the results for the Liberals were well above average among the wealthiest electorates, over half of which swung in the Coalition’s favour. The mortgage effect is more modest, with 2.8% separating the averages for the top and bottom fifteen. Electorates at the top end of the mortgaged dwellings table are all in the outer suburbs of big cities, but the bottom end is a dissonant mix of regional and inner-city areas, producing a wide range of swing results.
The extent to which this exercise actually explains the results is illustrated by the chart below. For each electorate, the result the model would have predicted is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the actual result is plotted on the vertical. The electorates identified by name are those where the Coalition most under-performed or over-performed the prediction. Keep in mind that this accounts for regional as well as demographic factors, so Lyons shows up as a strong Liberal performance because the swing there was lower than in the other three Tasmanian seats included (remember Denison is not included due to its lack of two-party swing figures). Most electorates’ results were within 2% of the prediction, but a good many had results where alternative explanations are substantially required.
TPOF
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:03 pm
How is claiming that I want a nation cleansed of a race not calling me a racist?
markjs @ #483 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:01 pm
Over? Still 573 votes to count.
Interesting that last batch of votes came from the Declaration Pre-Polls which had been favouring the Libs.
Regarding the Herbert recount – does anyone know if they re-scrutineer the ballots that were rejected during the first count?
Markjs
Yep. Will need every single bit of help to get over the line!
OK Crank, let’s talk about modern crimes. Where do your ideas differ from Breivik’s?
barney in saigon @ #487 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:02 pm
Yes, 84 years since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Amazing how little people are even aware of the history of the region or that the borders we now know were the result of the divvying up of the spoils of war into a whole bunch of new countries that never existed before.
“The KKK have been slaughtering thousands with car bombings, suicide bombings, crashing aeroplanes into buildings and randomly attacking innocents through out the western world – you remember all those attacks don’t you … ”
And funnily enough when they were doing those this, from your side of politics, there was vocal support. If you weren’t so stupid you’d see the irony.
How anyone could seriously be considered for a UN role after being sucker-punched by flirty, doe-eyed, Ms Bishop, to the detriment of their own party, is completely nuts.
Alex Hawke joins Peter Dutton in Immigration. You’d expect a further hardline shift from those 2 individuals.
sohar @ #490 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:04 pm
Oh yes. Not finished yet. Thanks for pointing that out.
compact crank @ #499 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:10 pm
Listen Cranky and you may learn.
The Brits and the West had the idea and the Brits had responsibility for it but it was too hard for them and they handpassed it to the UN after its formation.
Simon Katich
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:04 pm
Eastern European countries, particularly the Balkans, that came out of the Warsaw Pact do not fall in tot he category of modern western democracies.
I have been to many Islamic countries and never felt threatened. There was one mini bus trip in Aceh sitting next to a chap with an Osama Bin Laden shirt on. But he was harmless.
I felt more threatened in Toowoomba when I made the mistake of having a coffee and reading the paper in the park one Sunday morning…. wearing a skivvy. What was I thinking! Thankfully the lads were too drunk to swing straight.
Why does the AEC bar graph show three close seats (2 Labor, 1 L/NP) but only two on the table below (Hindmarsh and Herbert)?
Bushfire Bill
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:08 pm
I know the answers and they don’t support the arguments of the left.
CC
[do not fall in tot he category of modern western democracies]
Yep. My choice of Apples and Oranges.
Lizzie
Perhaps Christine Milne should be having a word with her successor, Di Natale. He has spent most of his time bagging Labor and giving Turnbull his support where possible
rhwombat
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:16 pm
Breivik is a psychotic murderer and has nothing in common with me.
simon katich @ #514 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:21 pm
skivvy?????
You deserve everything and more.
“Perhaps you’d like to compare and contrast what Islamic Nations have done to their Christian and Jewish populations in the last 70 years versus what Western nations have done to their Islamic citizens and refugees from Islamic nations?”
Perhaps you’d like to stop cherry picking data to suit your argument. I mean, anyone who’s arguing that a culture that sent 6 million to the gas chambers is somehow superior is just plain stupid in my eyes.
CC
Sorry. You just want Australia cleansed of certain religions. My mistake. Perhaps you are not quite as bad as ISIS.
CFMEUWA
Jul 16
CFMEUWA @CFMEUWA
Dutton has kept asbestos report secret- the plot thickens as lives put AT RISK http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-builders-warned-of-asbestos-risk-before-discovery-at-perth-childrens-hospital/news-story/38e4421bba3c51f5fb28cfddaf9613cf … #auspol #CFMEU
Good article by Kristina Keneally on the Libs and female representation.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/18/quotas-for-women-maybe-the-conservative-side-of-politics-is-just-more-misogynist
As per link above. It would be prudent for Labor to start demanding some answers!
Peter Dutton ordered an independent review of Australia’s asbestos border control management. The review has been completed, but its report kept confidential.
On Friday, the Queensland Government urged Mr Dutton to release the report.
“The public has a right to know what measures the Federal Government intends to take to tighten current controls and ensure the ban on the importation of this deadly substance is 100 per cent effective,” Queensland’s Industrial Relations Minister Grace Grace said.
So can anyone tell me what the seat count is and is Herbert now the only one in doubt?
TPOF
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:26 pm
despite being an atheist you are wrong on that count too. Where’s your proof?
Given your admission I ask that your post be deleted or amended.
Anyway Crank, why aren’t you out smiting the enemy. Treasure and blood wasn’t it? Kill ’em all. Hate to think you were just bullshitting us with your big words.
Islam is not doing anything today that Christianity and the West have not also done.
[skivvy????? You deserve everything and more.]
It was cold. And it was washing day.
And it wasnt a high neck one. It certainly wasnt black… it was charcoal.
‘How is claiming that I want a nation cleansed of a race not calling me a racist?’
How is wanting this not racist?
Apologies, CC – but you worded that post in a very ambiguous way!
simon katich @ #529 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:35 pm
Sure, sure.
One suggest you protest too much.
Also,
Why did you even have one?
Sad, Simon, very sad.
Barney,
Girls liked my charcoal skivvy. Even Toowoomba girls.
Cranks cultural purity isn’t necessarily racist. It’s just coincidence that all other races should take on the culture of the West* and then they would all be awesome.
* After 1945, and ignoring American armed intervention, and 20th century totalitarian politics in general. And anything else like segregation and slavery that otherwise dim the light of western cultural superiority. And of course anything that Islam has done which gives the lie to the ‘religion of evil’ argument should also be dismissed.
simon katich @ #533 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:44 pm
Something exotic.
Whatever works.
Hahaha
Cud Chewer
herbert is only seat in doubt
SK
Being a parent puts some things in perspective.
I was a single one (but with lots of help) of a daughter (always sensible) for 15 years so the idea of work travel or moving is not an easy option.
When we went to London after she cracked the combination of HSC/Baccalaureate and had scored an early entry to ANU Arts / Law she and her aunt ‘conspired’ to get her a place at KCL The ‘plan’ was she’d return here.
I was annoyed for a few hours but quickly realised I’d managed to produce a ‘grown up’ who was more than ready to make her own choices.
http://video.news.com.au/v/474120/AUSTRALIA-What-if-Aussie-Political-Parties-Ran-Election-BBQs-June-30
So in Herbert about 10,000 people who are on the roll didn’t get to a ballot paper (much higher than usual due to school holidays) and over 6,400 made an informal vote. Not to mention quite a few thousand who haven’t made it onto the roll. And the result is a cliffhanger with the a recount to come. Interesting. At least we didn’t have any PBs advocating an informal vote this time!
If the aims of indiscriminate violence are to arouse irrational fear and reactionary counter-calls against Islam, then we’d have to say that IS is succeeding. There is only one relevant response to fear and that is to question it and therein find the means to face it.
The reactionaries may beat their breasts and shake their fists, but what they are really doing is submitting to fear. Their responses come from a sense of vulnerability rather than from strength.
We must absolutely resist the temptation to squabble among ourselves and instead find and act from our courage – act against violence, against fear, against division and against revenge. To do otherwise is to intern ourselves; to make our fear our gaolers.
Did Malcolm Turnbull make a $2+ million donation to the Liberal Party – or did he invest $2+ million?
A savvy merchant banker wouldn’t just give a donation out of the goodness of his heart.
He’d be expecting interest on his investment, n’est-ce pas?
The Greens should be full of self-gratulation today.
Due in no small measure to their efforts at undermining Labor, and thereby in helping Turnbull, we have the Minister for Coal ‘looking after’ the Environment.
Well done, the Dirty Dealer!
Stupidity is not even in the race with the Greens.
And here’s a hint on Frydenberg for Dr Di Natale to repeat one thousand times during the next three years : Labor is the same as the Coalition.
Well, somebody’s a fan.
http://newsroom.engineersaustralia.org.au/news/media-release/tangible-progress-on-innovation-and-stem-is-vital
Oh look, Boer War is still campaigning for the Coalition by attacking one of their opponents. Anyone surprised?
kezza2 @ #541 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:59 pm
Maybe he bought Parakeelia.
Andrew Leigh Verified account
Boerwar pointing fingers everywhere but his own team who insists on leadership that voters reject.
Any discussions on the new cabinet make up?
Anyone who still thinks that the Greens are not the worst thing that ever happened to the Australian environment should take a good hard look at Turnbull’s decisions today.
The Greens’ idea that we can wait forever until the Trots complete their societal overturning is shown for the destructive sham that it is.
As usual the Greens refuse to put two and two together.
Somehow they think that helping Turnbull is not really helping Turnbull.