Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:
• ReachTEL has published a helpful table illustrating pollster accuracy, which is sporting of them given the attention it calls to the eye-watering accuracy of Newspoll. However, all concerned did very well in predicting a two-party preferred result which, by my back-of-envelope reading, will ultimately settle at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition. Essential and especially Ipsos overshot on support for the Greens, with the latter landing around 2% too low for both major parties, but the only other substantial errors involved the balance of support between the Liberals and the Nationals, which I don’t regard as particularly important. Electorate polls were a different matter, and will be looked at in greater detail when all the results are in.
• On the Tuesday evening following the election, Roy Morgan conducted an SMS poll poll from 3587 respondents on leadership approval. The poll had Malcolm Turnbull with a narrow 51-47 lead as preferred prime minister, which the Morgan release sets up for comparison with a 57-24 result from May. However, the May result was an interviewer-administered phone poll, a method evidently less conducive to a “neither/can’t say” response. The poll also found Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott by 71-25 as preferred Liberal leader, and Anthony Albanese leading Bill Shorten 49-48 for Labor.
Now to an exercise I’ve conducted to get a clearer sense of what sort of areas did and didn’t swing. The chart below shows results of a regression analysis on 6582 polling booth results in which two-party swing data was available, which excludes the 14 electorates where the AEC’s two-party count is not between Labor and the Coalition. The purpose here is to discern if the swing to Labor was more or less evident in areas with particular demographic characteristics. The results record a big move back to Labor in the ever-volatile mortgage belts; an apparent failure of the Abbott-to-Turnbull leadership switch to improve the Coalition’s standing in ethnic communities; and better swing results for the Coalition where voters were wealthier and better educated, and – perhaps more surprisingly – older.
After the constant and starting with “Age”, the table lists the associations between polling booth swings to the Coalition, which in practice usually means negative results recording swings to Labor, and five demographic variables for the census districts in which the booths were located. All but one of these variables, English spoken at home, records a statistically significant association with the swing, as indicated by a score of less than .05 in the significance column on the right. The “B” coefficient of .001 for “Age” tells us that areas with a median age of 40 would generally swing 1% more favourably for the Coalition than areas with a median age of 30. “MFY” stands for median weekly family income and is measured in thousands, so the coefficient means swings tended to be 0.3% stronger for the Coalition for every $1000 of average household income. “School” represents the percentage of the 18-plus population who had completed high school, every point of which associates with nearly 0.1% of swing in favour of the Coalition. Conversely, Labor did 0.02% better for every percentage point of mortgaged dwellings.
The five demographic variables are followed by geographic ones that are there to ensure the results for the demographic variables aren’t influenced by regional differences in the swing, particularly those from state to state. Sydney is excluded so it works as a baseline, so the coefficient for Melbourne tells us that the Coalition would typically do 2.6% better there than at a demographically identical booth in Sydney. Finally, two variables are listed to control for retiring member and sophomore surge effects, which prove to be significant in both cases. “LNPgain” was coded 1 where the candidate was a Coalition sophomore and -1 where a Coalition member was retiring; vice-versa in the case of Labor sophomores and retirees; and zero where neither applied. “ALPloss” was coded 1 where Labor lost the seat in 2013 and 0 otherwise, to measure the boost to the sophomore effect in seats where Labor had a sitting member defending last time. The results suggest Coalition members who won their seats from Labor in 2013 did 2.2% better in swing terms than other Coalition candidates, which reduces to 0.5% in seats where they were replacing retiring Coalition members.
To observe these effects in action, the four tables below identify the 15 highest and lowest ranked electorates by the four statistically significant demographic indicators, and show their two-party swings to the Coalition where available. The lowest education electorates, all of which are regional, were 4.0% worse for the Coalition than those at the top of the scale, of which all apart from Fenner in the ACT are near the centres of the largest cities. Median age was more of a mixed bag — old electorates are regional, but the young ones encompass inner cities, mortgage belts, enclaves, a defence town and the largely indigenous seat of Lingiari. Nonetheless, the distinction here is as great as it was for education, and not in the direction that might have been anticipated from a touted backlash over superannuation policy.
The lowest income electorates, all of which are regional other than two in Sydney, recorded an average 3.5% swing to Labor, only slightly above the national result. But the results for the Liberals were well above average among the wealthiest electorates, over half of which swung in the Coalition’s favour. The mortgage effect is more modest, with 2.8% separating the averages for the top and bottom fifteen. Electorates at the top end of the mortgaged dwellings table are all in the outer suburbs of big cities, but the bottom end is a dissonant mix of regional and inner-city areas, producing a wide range of swing results.
The extent to which this exercise actually explains the results is illustrated by the chart below. For each electorate, the result the model would have predicted is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the actual result is plotted on the vertical. The electorates identified by name are those where the Coalition most under-performed or over-performed the prediction. Keep in mind that this accounts for regional as well as demographic factors, so Lyons shows up as a strong Liberal performance because the swing there was lower than in the other three Tasmanian seats included (remember Denison is not included due to its lack of two-party swing figures). Most electorates’ results were within 2% of the prediction, but a good many had results where alternative explanations are substantially required.
Alan Tudge on Melbourne 774.
Turns out Sukkar did not get a seat in the cabinet.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/07/18/malcolm-turnbull-just-made-mr-coal-his-environment-minister/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork
Lizzie
Yep. The Greens have achieved what they seemed to want all along: a Liberal Prime Minister and Mr Coal protecting the environment.
On the LNP cabinet
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-18/politics-live-july-18/7636920
It’s official.
Turnbull is a total failure.
Aided and abetted by Labor’s failure to campaign on climate.
Is there anybody left in Australia who still thinks that Turnbull has any principles?
trog sorrenson @ #555 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:29 pm
That is…the G refrain is unamended…Labor=Liberal…fmbd
“It’s official.
Turnbull is a total failure.”
While ever he remains in power, Turnbull is a success.
Of course it remains to be seen just how long he can remain in power. Doing his best to placate the loony right in his party would be a good first step….
But doesn’t say endorsed –
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-18/bishop-confirms-rudd-seeking-nomination-for-un-secretary-general/7637094
ADRIAN – There are a lot of idiots out there who do (did?). That’s what just got him over the line during the election. The greatest scam of all.
Barring misfortune, Turnbull will still be there in three years time with his personal popularity rating down around his ankles.
adrian Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:31 pm
Is there anybody left in Australia who still thinks that Turnbull has any principles?
***********************************
He has today reportedly got 2 million reasons why he should be our PM ……
While Boerwar furiously points fingers, his team and the conservatives celebrate the confirmation of $50,000,000,000 worth of submarines ….that will perform a few exercises every now and then
How strong and Presidential Malcolm sounds when his speech has been written for him.
Which was immediately noticeable after questions started and Turnbull’s confident delivery evaporated into the stuttering mess we remember so well.
Ctar1
[ I’d managed to produce a ‘grown up’ ]
Thats what its all about. Every day they grow a little further away from you.
A bittersweet ‘well done’ to you.
‘Rex Douglas
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:36 pm
While Boerwar furiously points fingers, his team and the conservatives celebrate the confirmation of $50,000,000,000 worth of submarines ….that will perform a few exercises every now and then’
Nice try at a unicorn, pal.
The Greens spent a lot of time attacking Labor directly in this campaign.
That helped Turnbull.
I do hope you guys enjoy Frydenberg.
I can’t say that Australia deserves him.
But the Greens sure do.
Boerwar
Poor policy, on all sides, needs to be challenged.
‘phoenixRED
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:36 pm
adrian Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:31 pm
Is there anybody left in Australia who still thinks that Turnbull has any principles?
***********************************
He has today reportedly got 2 million reasons why he should be our PM ……’
Always remember that the Liberals are the same as Labor: Colesworth.
As the Greens sow, so shall we all reap.
‘Rex Douglas
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:43 pm
Boerwar
Poor policy, on all sides, needs to be challenged.’
Sure. Try explaining that to Frydenberg.
You Greens are a hoot.
rex douglas @ #547 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:15 pm
Pot, meet kettle.
CTaR
I imagine that Australia will nominate him but not support him.
‘Trog Sorrenson
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:29 pm
It’s official.
Turnbull is a total failure.
Aided and abetted by Labor’s failure to campaign on climate.’
It’s official. The Greens ignored Labor’s climate policies.
On top of that they lied persistently that Labor and the Liberals are the same.
With Frydenberg even the slower folk amongst the Greens might begin to realize that there IS a difference and that dragging down Labor is a stupid, self-defeating, environment destroying enterprise.
Boerwar – Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:43 pm
‘phoenixRED
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:36 pm
adrian Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:31 pm
Is there anybody left in Australia who still thinks that Turnbull has any principles?
***********************************
He has today reportedly got 2 million reasons why he should be our PM ……’
Always remember that the Liberals are the same as Labor: Colesworth.
As the Greens sow, so shall we all reap.
*********************************************
Boerwar – you just cannot avoid the mathematics of Australian Elections:
I say again – Mr HarboursideMansions has 2 MILLION Rea$ons$ to be our beloved PM
I wonder how long it will be before that other Labor-baiting Green troll, Pegasus turns up?
Now that the word seems to have gone out in Greensland that Labor’s success in the election needs to be attacked and besmirched I imagine it won’t be long.
I am stunned that there are some who consider the amalgamation of Energy and Environment a brilliant move. Kerry Chikarovski (sp?) and Katharine Murphy, for example.
c@tmomma @ #573 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:48 pm
All you need to do is ask them how many seats they won off the LNP. Shuts them right up.
Walking up to Leichardt on the weekend I couldn’t help but notice a huge and very ugly billboard stating that for Real Action on Climate Change, we need to vote Greens.
Glad that worked out so well.
If Green=Liberal, then it should follow that One Nation=Labor?
‘adrian
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:52 pm
Walking up to Leichardt on the weekend I couldn’t help but notice a huge and very ugly billboard stating that for Real Action on Climate Change, we need to vote Greens.
Glad that worked out so well.’
Hey mate.
Dopey enough to believe their Dear Leader.
Lizzie
Please do you mind! Cherry Kickeraskie is one of my very favourites. Regarding TV it’s best to watch with no sound (maybe no vision as well).
‘lizzie
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 5:49 pm
I am stunned that there are some who consider the amalgamation of Energy and Environment a brilliant move.’
Not forgetting that the Greens reckon that it is all the same to them.
Lizzie,
I haven’t taken a look at what Murphy’s reasoning is, but I can see why someone might support it: our energy sources often do harm our environment, and often there are conflicts between energy needs and environmental protection. A combined portfolio (or a combined minister) should result in better cooperation between the two so sustainable, renewable energy can be encouraged and implemented.
We’re not getting this done under Frydenberg or any Liberal government, so for this term of government it would be a bad idea, but if a future progressive government were to implement this (and clearly state why they were doing so), I wouldn’t be objecting.
PR
You cannot avoid the Greens’ persistent destruction of Labor’s electoral chances by insisting again and again on the lie that Labor and Liberals are the same.
Andrew P Street in scintillating form about Sonia Kruger:
It should also be made clear, as a Community Representative, that criticising some of our – sorry, my – community for making silly comments doesn’t in any way imply there should be some sort of censorship. They have a perfect right to express their barely-considered opinions, in the same way that others can point out that said opinions are adorably daft.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/im-sorry-about-sonia-krugers-stupid-inflammatory-comments-20160718-gq87dj.html
A
Frydenberg’s job will be to make sure the Environment does not interfere with the real task here: for that Minister for Northern Australia and Resources to stitch up taxpayers’ subsidies for the Gallilee to Abbott Point railway line, thereby removing the main constraint on the financing of the Carmichael Coal Mine.
IMO this was most likely the issue of substance agreed by Joyce and Turnbull in their Secret Protocol of the Elders of the Coalition. No wonder they want to keep it a secret.
Of course this is too subtle for the Greens.
They lied to the Australian people that Labor and the Liberals are Coles and Woolworths.
Well they are not Coles and Woolworths.
And the Australian environment and the global climate and the Australian people are going to be paying over the next three years for Greens’ bloody mindedness.
So, there we have it: the Galliele Basin expedited by the Greens.
Peg was a Liberal troll. Election over, job done. Good bye.
Airlines
Yes, the two could be complementary, but not under Mr Coal Frydenberg.
Also, the Endangered Species part of Conservation has dropped off the twig. I think it’s a complete sell out by Malcolm.
Breaking News on the ABC that Labor gained the seat of Herbert by 8 votes!
Yesssssssssss!!!!!!!!!
One more Labor woman and one less LNP man. : )
KayJay
She has a nice deep smooth voice. End of…
Lizzie,
Agreed. I’m very unimpressed by Endangered Species being dropped too.
Listening to the 6pm news and true to form the peoples champion Bill Shorten has fallen into line behind Kevin Rudd 😆
“his parliamentary experience sees him suitably qualified”
oh for shame !
C@t,
There’ll be a recount over the coming days in Herbert so it’s not certain, but it’s looking promising for the ALP.
And The Greens are 7-11. Always paying their workers less than Award Wage.
c@tmomma @ #587 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 6:07 pm
There will be a recount and with a vote that close anything is possible (including an increased margin for Cathy O’Toole).
But it would be lovely not only to have another Labor woman but also to official restrict Turnbull’s majority to one solitary seat. This will be particularly telling with procedural motions, where an absolute majority is required.
Some Fairfax media news…
A talking head fr0m Fairfax on 774ABC Drive this afternoon admitted that Fairfax are cutting and cutting further such features as the Saturday race guide due to less “page counts” on the weekend and the need to “conserve costs”. This followed a query from a caller who asked why the race guide was cut from the biggest selling edition of the week (Saturday). The talking head was very frank and probably caught on the hop and was actually brutally honest.
I wonder if he will be called into the office tomorrow for a “please explain”
The Sunday Age masthead online has disappeared too which indicates further streamlining is on the way.
Prediction: The Age/SMH will cease publishing weekday editions on Monday-Wednesday and Friday and Sunday leaving only Thursday and Saturday as dead wood editions within 12 months.
To be honest the first thing I turn to on The Age online each morning are the Letters to the Editor.
SK
It was very pleasing. I was in the London flat and she was coming and going as she was before. Some negotiations required but not more than I could deal with taking into account age and sensibility. She became more like a trusted partner.
‘C@tmomma
Monday, July 18, 2016 at 6:07 pm
Breaking News on the ABC that Labor gained the seat of Herbert by 8 votes!
Yesssssssssss!!!!!!!!!
One more Labor woman and one less LNP man. : )’
Meh. Ask any Greens and they will tell you: ‘Same, same.’
Well done Cathy O’Toole! Winning Herbet by 8 votes!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-18/election-2016-labor-wins-herbert/7639404
It is even sweeter to think that our nation’s AG, Brandis, took time off his official duties to scrutineer, no doubt pressuring those present. Glad he was there, though I would have preferrd he was in Canberra earning his pay.
The one seat majority is not trivial. Of course the Liberal members are dedicated and unselfish chaps, and would not dream of doing the wrong thing. Still, a hung parliament is only one subpoena away, if we ever get a Federal ICAC.
More private school shenanigans… Brighton Grammar in Melbourne and two Year 11 boys have been suspended following this
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-investigate-vile-instagram-account-set-up-by-brighton-grammar-students-20160717-gq7tfn.html
F**kwits. The mother of one of the victims was interviewed on ABC radio this afternoon and took steps to support the school but laid blame squarely at these boys parents.
A friend of mine who runs a bus company in Melbourne including school runs to Brighton Grammar called the principal and threatened to cease all school bus / charter services to the school following this report (as he has a teenage daughter) if action was not taken quickly.
These boys surely should face charges over misuse of a common carriage service or suchlike. Name and shame these bottom feeders.
“Breaking News on the ABC that Labor gained the seat of Herbert by 8 votes!” There are 573 votes to count followed by a recount. The ABC is demonstrating its incompetence yet again.