Essential Research: 50-50

Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.

Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,056 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 4 of 62
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  1. 76 is the magic number. 76 for one party means 74 for everyone else. Even with one vote taken out for speaker it’s then 75 to 74 which wins every time if they have the discipline.

  3. AdamBandt: If you’re concerned AAA credit rating might be downgraded, Treasurer, get rid of unfair tax breaks that cost us $bns & secure revenue base.

  4. Wonder why Mike Baird saved the ban on greyhound racing announcement to this week, not last?

    Without knowing all the facts, this would be a devastating blow for the battlers associated with the sport.

  5. Non government bussiness only gets a couple of hours in the sitting week. There will be a lot of competition for that time from all the bussiness that Labor want to get up, and the cross bench will want to get in on the action too.
    I doubt that marriage equality will get the bulk of that time.

  6. The 75 scenario gets even more interesting with Latter’s propensity to go missing.

    What does Smith do with and SSO where it’s 74-74? You’d think precedent would be to allow debate over shutting it down.

  7. Some things to look forward to in a Turnbull government.

    The Nationals flexing their muscles.
    Choice of ministers.
    Make-up of cabinet
    Selection of Speaker
    Marriage equality next step.
    Andrew Wilkie and Chilcot
    Effect of further backtracking on the budget.
    The right wing rump.
    And I’m sure there will be mre.

  8. Roger. If Turnbull doesn’t have 76 then Labor and the cross bench can allocate as much time as they like to their own bills.

  9. Roger Miller

    For Labor each time it brings on Marriage Equality it will increase LNP division. Thats in Labor’s best interest

  10. lwp
    [
    Any scandal prone LNP members?
    ]
    If the coalition has 76, I would estimate 38.
    Re finely balanced divisions, in addition to discipline it also assumes everyone makes it to the house in time.

  12. Good afternoon all,

    The banning of greyhound racing is a bullshit decision.

    More oversight, of course. Banning ? Absolute knee jerk reaction that will hurt many many honest and hardworking people.

    Cheers.

  14. Doyley

    The price is too hight. Its good the “sport” is banned. Yes I am cynical about how Baird went about it but I applaud the decision.

    The honest hard working people had the cruelty happen under their watch and this is the price they have to pay.

    Its that simple.

  15. A payment into my account has since arrived but it may be worth checking that any payments you are expecting have been credited.

    Except in cases where an absolute majority of parliament is required, which is the case on constitutional amendments, bills passed during a joint sitting, and motions to dismiss standing orders, (I think).

  17. More oversight, of course. Banning ? Absolute knee jerk reaction that will hurt many many honest and hardworking people.

    Expect masses of greyhounds to be put down, too.

    While I am generally in favour of highly regulating greyhound racing, I’m not sure whether the consequences of banning it altogether have been thoroughly thought out.

  18. Scotty shows no sign of having heard the message sent on Saturday

    The TCT may well form a government but a lot of people think their policies stink.

    Until there is something done to tackle the revenue side of the budget the ratings agencies are likely to pass harsh judgement

  21. SkyNewsAust: Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris says government budget projections were fantasy and that S&P has made the same assessment #ausvotes

  22. Apologies if anyone has already mentioned this. The University of Queensland did a blind trial of data from climate change studies and found that it failed to support deniers.

    Would politician Pauline Hanson have committed to “exposing the false claims” of climate change if environmental data were presented to her as the profit margins of a business?

    Following Saturday’s Australian federal election, Ms Hanson said her One Nation Party colleague Malcolm Roberts had “all the answers to this climate change BS we are being fed”.

    University of Queensland School of Psychology researcher Dr Timothy Ballard recently completed a study that translated climate change trends into economics and demographics.

    “For instance, we took the figures for the shrinkage of Arctic Sea ice and turned it into a profit statement of the fictitious Supreme Widget Corporation,” Dr Ballard said.

    I think this is really well done. Read the UQ announcement at https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2016/07/blind-study-fails-support-deniers
    Not that I think it would convince the likes of Pauline.

  25. From today’s Crikey, one of the domain names (and logo), registered by Bernadi is ‘Australian Majority’.
    So that would make them the Bolsheviks (Lenin did the same in I think, 1913), even though they definitely weren’t the majority.
    So does that make TCT the mensheviks?

    They were of course the majority socialists after the purge.

  27. Andrew Elder just liked this tweet of mine.

    Do you still have that “plan” Mr Turnbull? Yes? Then perhaps you can tell us what it is. Over to you mainstream media.

  28. So whose dumb idea was it to have a DD? Malcolm Turnbull certainly agreed, but it is clear who was the ‘brains’ behind it. None other than High Court judge in waiting, AG George Brandis.

    The formal advice to Cosgrove from Turnbull attaches Pompous George’s reasons, and Constitutional lawyer that he is, he would know that this was precedent setting and his brilliance would be read in legal text books for evermore.

    https://www.gg.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/IPS/Documents%20relating%20to%20calling%20of%20the%20double%20dissolution%20election.pdf

  29. [From today’s Crikey, one of the domain names (and logo), registered by Bernadi is ‘Australian Majority’.]

    Sounds like Bernardi got his inspiration from the “Moral Majority” in the US:

    [The Moral Majority was a prominent American political organization associated with the Christian right and Republican Party. It was founded in 1979 by Baptist minister Jerry Falwell and associates, and dissolved in the late 1980s. It played a key role in the mobilization of conservative Christians as a political force and particularly in Republican presidential victories throughout the 1980s.] (Wikipedia)

  30. upbeatme: lol! has that howard grub been on a sunbed with a mask on? Looks bizarre, fake tan? Weird looking evil old man #auspol

  33. Guytaur @ 12.34

    Labor should not use this issue as a politucal spear. They should advance their bill, absolutely they must do that. But this issue is not a weapon for daily use. It is about our dignity and must be dealt with accordingly.

  34. sprocket_ @ #154 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 12:24 pm

    Wonder why Mike Baird saved the ban on greyhound racing announcement to this week, not last?
    Without knowing all the facts, this would be a devastating blow for the battlers associated with the sport.

    The ‘sport’ brought it on itself. No sympathy from me. They have a year to adjust.

    I hope all other States and Territories follow suit.

  35. Andrew Elder today, on political journalists:
    “Imagine if AFL journalists insisted at this stage of the season that Carlton, Collingwood, and Essendon were the teams to beat this year because they had been back in the day, and the journos couldn’t imagine how things might change. Imagine the currency traders who went long on sterling before Brexit. This is the degree of professional failure involved with dickheads who misreported the national mood a week before an election, and who insisted their failure not be called out. Something beyond mere dismissal is warranted here: chucking them into the most algae-infested bit of Lake Burley Griffin, for a start.”
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/

  36. Briefly

    I did not say daily use. I said weekly use. Its a much better political use of the issue than splitting the nation by going to a plebiscite.

  37. From the AFR, amongst other things shows the revolving door between Fairfax and Liberal Party staffers

    “In the 2007 campaign, I was seconded to the tactics team in John Howard’s campaign headquarters, helmed by another Fraser adviser, Darcy Tronson, but also including then Howard staffer Jamie Briggs, Turnbull’s now senior advisers Brad Burke and Tony Parkinson, our London correspondent James Chessell and James Hird spinner Ian Hanke. In my experience, our idea of tactics was collating old newspaper clippings and having a whiteboard on which we wrote which side won the 6pm news bulletins (Darcy still had a whiteboard column for This Day Tonight and one morning wanted a fax number for Jana Wendt).

    It’s totally unsurprising to now learn that this crew are still marking that whiteboard under the stewardship of Tony Nutt, who makes Brian Loughnane look like a Silicon Valley start-up founder. Meanwhile, federal Labor had invested gazillions in sophisticated hub-and-spoke social media infrastructure which allows them to centrally point and shoot the digital messaging of all candidates, separately or together – mind you, with messaging like Mark Textor’s, it might be better to keep that Death Star far from Nutt’s fingers.”

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/how-liberal-dinosaurs-almost-relegated-malcolm-turnbull-to-extinction-20160706-gq01lo#ixzz4DgoDGXNw
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  38. I’m quite concerned about Mr Peter Beattie’s speculation that the return of One Nation could see the ALP in trouble at the State election because of the benefit the LNP will enjoy from the flow of preferences which One Nation voters will, because of the Queensland government’s recent late night shenanigans, be compelled to express.

    I’m not concerned for the ALP, though. I’m rather worried that I will laugh so hard that I might injure myself.

  39. Good hardworking honest working class people presumably would be involved with running and betting on dogfighting or cockfights if they were legal, too.

    I don’t know why humans are so obsessed with exploiting animals for entertainment, but it’s wrong when bears dance in Thailand and it’s wrong when dogs race in Australia. Leave the animals alone and bet on humans, at least they can consent to institutional exploitation in the name of having a punt.

  42. MTBW, from today’s Crikey:

    But the flyer, which the CDP has denied having any hand in writing, is only part of the story. Activist Christian churches are also using the social media platform WeChat to encourage Chinese-speaking Australians to support the Christian Democrats, a strategy that has paid off. Three seats in the middle belt of Sydney, dominated by Chinese-speaking Australians, resisted the national swing and NSW Labor’s ruthless marginal seats strategy.

    In Bennelong, Banks and Reid the Christian Democrats more than doubled their vote from 2013. In Banks they might beat the Greens into third place and in both Bennelong and Reid (where the CDP’s candidate was a Korean pastor) CDP preferences delivered swings to the Coalition. Similar dynamics seem to have been in play in the Victorian seat of Chisholm, which looks likely to fall to the Coalition for the first time since 1996.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/07/07/chinese-flyer-wechat-campaigned-for-christian-democrats/

    paywalled

    This cannot have helped Chris Gambian in Banks.
    It is interesting, because the Chinese community in Melbourne is solidly Labor, I believe, and I think the same is true of the Chinese community in the seat of Sydney. Briefly also commented that the same is true in W.A.

    I have been told by a Hong Kong born friend that many of the people in the community she know are rusted on Liberals, but I think she has also alluded to some of them being big C Christians.

  43. AND HERE IS A LITTLE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.
    Our ‘Mad’ Katter Bob often is absent from the House when sittings are on.
    What fun and games would happen if say a very important motion is put before the HOR and Bobs is off somewhere doing something Katter.

  45. “John Howard: there was no lie, there were errors of intelligence”
    The only error of intelligence was his inadequate intellect.

  47. The reaction by Blair and Howard to Chilcot leaves me in deepest despair! I know honesty is hard to find, but such comprehensive dishonesty is completely immoral. It can be said – of many – “they couldn’t lie straight in bed!”

  48. Apparently Mike Baird will also ban sheepdog trials.

    Why? Because too many were being found guilty.

    (Sorry, I stole this from the people who write Irish jokes)

  49. Some people unfairly criticised our Dear Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, for having no economic plan, even though he told us to “stick to the plan”. Well what is the plan Malcolm? Some people seem to want to know:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-07/australian-credit-rating-put-on-negative-watch/7576714

    This follows on from Ken Henry’s blunt criticism yesterday.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/ken-henry-blames-political-parties-for-budget-woes/7572850

    We appear to be headed for a weak minority Liberal government precisely when we need a strong and competent one. I fear we will get one which is neither.

  50. jmodoh: Big news in NSW: @mikebairdMP will ban greyhound racing.

    Does James Packer benefit if this form of gambling is shut down?

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