Essential Research: 50-50

Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.

Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,056 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  5. Raaraa

    Mr Crean’s finest hour. Pity he lost insight in the RGR wars. Still he had it when it counted for the nations interest.

  6. If the coalition just makes it to 75, the decision on who to nominate for Speaker will be interesting, since putting Mr Smith back in the chair would leave the ALP and rest with a floor majority. But I have a funny feeling that the independents might all resist any temptations put to them to accept the Speakership.

  10. doyley @ #85 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 10:55 am

    Guytaur,
    Labor cannot endorse Shorten tomorrow.
    Firstly, voting is still underway in a number of seats and Senate.
    When the final result is known and, given labor will not form government, leadership positions are automatically thrown open. Any candidate (s) then have seven days to nominate. The process then moves on from there.
    So, no formal endorsement tomorrow.
    Cheers.

    The vote isn’t tomorrow. But with no challenge, the status quo will remain. I think the endorsement is a prelude to an automatic leadership spill, if Labor doesn’t form government.

  11. I would not be surprised given Turnbull pushing constitutional limits if Mr Turnbull invited Mr Slipper back for the role.

    The look on Abbott and Pyne’s face would be a wonder to behold

  12. Multiple banks have experienced a major stuff up with crediting payments into depositors’ accounts overnight. Message from Beyondbank:

    Overnight Payments Issue 7 July 2016
    Due to an overnight processing issue affecting multiple banks nationally, some payments were not received into members accounts overnight.
    This issue is being worked upon. We sincerely apologise for the inconvenience caused, we will provide an update shortly.

    A payment into my account has since arrived but it may be worth checking that any payments you are expecting have been credited.

  13. tonylepony @ #16 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 7:55 am

    Thanks BK
    The New Matilda article lays out the background to bias in the ABC. This issue needs to be confronted full on, before the fulcrum of editorial “balance” ends up in Bernardi’s front yard.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/07/06/decades-of-conservative-pressure-on-the-abc-are-paying-off/

    Thank you for that. Very forensic. The fact that I saw it as a more balanced treatment of the leaders at the time reflects how much worse the rest of the ABC has become. Nothing worse, of course, than the comparative treatment by Leigh Sales of Bill Shorten, then Malcolm Turnbull, and then Bill Shorten again in successive interviews.

  16. 6PR: .@ColinBarnett says @TurnbullMalcolm needed more policies that related to people in their daily lives, seen as a rather aloof campaign
    6PR: .@ColinBarnett puts big swing against Liberals in WA down to ‘a sense of job insecurity and financial stress’.

  17. Re the caucus meeting tomorrow, it was reported in the GG as Shorten to ‘see of challengers ‘, with the see off quoted.

  18. Raaa,

    The vote isn’t tomorrow. But with no challenge, the status quo will remain. I think the endorsement is a prelude to an automatic leadership spill, if Labor doesn’t form government.

    Good point. This is an endorsement, not a vote.

  20. rogue scholar @ #54 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 9:16 am

    3; Labor is ready to win next time and the poison chalice of governing the rabble coming after this election goes to the LNP. break out the popcorn, its going to be fun watching them squirm and wriggle their way to oblivion.

    The thing about the poison chalice is that Bill Shorten and Labor are smart enough and experienced enough to hold it without getting poisoned – but they would lose a lot of skin in the effort. Malcolm Turnbull and his coalition will just drown in it – even if they just scrape a majority.

  21. Smith would be 99 percent to retain the speaker’s chair. Can’t see an Indie talking it. That’s why 76 is so critical to Turnbull. 75, and he’s relying on an independent voting with him on every procedural vote. SSO’s, censures, standing orders. Everything. Increases the lack of authority massively.

  23. DrCraigEmerson: Yet more from conservative columnists today claiming if only @TurnbullMalcolm had shifted to the right he would have romped in #delusional

  24. TheKouk: A damning assessment of the Coalition’s economic plan from S&P: Company tax cuts, deficits till 2020-21, puny surpluses after that. Hopeless

  25. LOL Dutton, keep telling yourself that.

    ‘Victims of our own success’ says Peter Dutton

    Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has spoken to 2GB radio in Sydney this morning.

    He said questions about the Coalition’s strategy was insider talk, and its record on asylum seeker issues could have been a factor in the campaign.

    “In part, I think we victim of our own success,” he said.

    “The fact that we stopped boats, got children out of detention, we’re cancelling visas of bikies and others to make our community a safer place and essentially the issue had gone off the radar.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-results-2016-malcolm-turnbull-to-form-government-as-vote-count-continues-20160706-gq07k2.html#ixzz4DgRdRxc7
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  26. ratsak @ #121 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 11:43 am

    Smith would be 99 percent to retain the speaker’s chair. Can’t see an Indie talking it. That’s why 76 is so critical to Turnbull. 75, and he’s relying on an independent voting with him on every procedural vote. SSO’s, censures, standing orders. Everything. Increases the lack of authority massively.

    It’s the procedural stuff that will blow Turnbull up. Even 76 will be a hassle with the Speaker having to cast their ballot all the time. Basically, Turnbull can rely on Katter and, maybe, McGowan and Sharkie, to provide a stable base in the Parliament for confidence matters. However, as shown by the position taken by Oakeshott, Wilkie and Windsor between 2010 and 2013, the cross-benchers will look at every turn to increase their influence and profile. And they will do it by taking control of Parliamentary business away from the Government of the day. If Turnbull cannot get to 76, prepare to see QT look more like it was in the 43rd parliament than it was under Bishop and Smith.

  28. TPOF

    Under the 43rd Parliament the government would not have got away with the secrecy.

    Its going to be interesting to see what access the cross benches and Labor manage to get to information. Review of FOI applications could be a big worry for Turnbull.

  30. Ratsak

    If I recall correctly after 2010 Windsor at al said they would not support gag motions hence we had the regular stunt from Abbott where just before the end of QT he or one his minions would move a SSO so they could have a 10 minutes uninterrupted rant at Gillard which would make the TV broadcast before it cut to Play School.

    I doubt that Turnbull would want to be relying on Katter to stop such things. As others have noted his presence in the house can be irregular and I doubt Labor would be giving him a pair.

  33. The greyhound thing. Big hit to gambling clout.

    Maybe Wilkie and Xenophon will get further this time. I hope so. Labor did its best but factors were against them. Now with this proving the clout is vulnerable to pressure a new pressure point would be good.

    I still maintain its best to stop free for all on online gambling before it gets entrenched already too many adverts for gambling on your phone.

  34. “Even 76 will be a hassle with the Speaker having to cast their ballot all the time.”

    76 means 75-74 on the floor, so as long as the LNP can control every single vote of theirs, the Speaker’s vote won’t be needed.

  35. (and that’s when all 5 cross benchers vote with ALP which, apart from procedural motions, probably won’t be that often.)

  36. Martin B

    The electorate voted to the left. Turnbull knows it. He needs Labor and the cross bench to counter the rabid right in his party if he finds his balls that is.

  38. Oh sure, watching how the rabid right try to leverage their position within the LNP in the next parliament is going to be a massive popcorn-fest.

  40. martin b @ #134 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    “Even 76 will be a hassle with the Speaker having to cast their ballot all the time.”
    76 means 75-74 on the floor, so as long as the LNP can control every single vote of theirs, the Speaker’s vote won’t be needed.

    Don’t forget that the Nationals will from time to time object to proposals, with some members crossing the floor occasionally. This wasn’t so much of a problem in the last parliament.

  44. MichaelPascoe01: So on a scale of disasters deserving royal commissions, how do Pink Batts compare with Iraq? #ChilcotReport

  46. I think Turnbull would need 77 seats.

    You simply cannot have the Speaker having to cast a vote on, potentially, every disputed procedural motion, day-in, day-out.

    You need a majority plus a clear extra 1 to preserve the office of the Speaker’s dignity.

    I know it won’t always come down to this, but it will be subject to the whim of Labor – to ambush or not to ambush?

  47. Given the lurks and perks associated with being Speaker there would be a few in the TCT party room who would not be happy to see an Indi in the job.

    and I can just see Mal telling the party room what he wants.

  48. I can see Labor if parliamentary process allow it introducing a Marriage Equality Bill every week. After all one of their expert strategists Peta Credlin has told Labor its an excellent way to divide the LNP

  49. The problem for the Coalition and Turnbull is that there are many different possible causes that they can correlate with their falling popularity, some polar opposite (policies too Right, not Right enough, leadership changes, etc) and they are going to pick the ones that suit them. Getting it wrong (as we here think they are) leads to their acting in a way that will only exacerbate their problem.

  50. @ Bushfire – 76 gives you a majority without requiring the speaker’s vote.

    76./150 becomes 75/149 after appointing a speaker, which means 75 votes for and 74 against.

    The speaker’s vote is only needed when at least one member abstains.

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