Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.
Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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That new matilda article on the ABC bias was very very good.
I’m gonna call the election at 76/69/5 Coalition ‘win’ which messes with my re election projection of 74/70/6. Xenephon let me down in Grey, too many pre -poller’s voted before Mediscare hit home, too many voted after Brexit and that idiot Andrew’s cost Labor a seat in Victoria [Chisolm] over the CFA crap when they otherwise would have gone plus one instead [Dunkley].
On the bright side,
1 Tassie has no more HOR Liberals as I predicted,
2 Our lovely dawn patroller BK no longer has a Liberal haunting his neighborhood in MAYO, karma’s just reward for his amazing contributions to this blog;
3
Rogue Scholar
A good result all round
3; Labor is ready to win next time and the poison chalice of governing the rabble coming after this election goes to the LNP. break out the popcorn, its going to be fun watching them squirm and wriggle their way to oblivion.
I love this:
But that is what the Liberal party has always done – outsourced everything they can to their mates and financial backers to run for personal gain. Cameron is just unhappy that he has been de-powered in this particular piece of outsourcing 😀
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-cory-bernardi-in-talks-to-break-away-from-malcolm-turnbulls-liberal-party-20160706-gpzqak.html#ixzz4DfpEZOsK
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citizen
Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 9:05 am
Murdoch’s Oz is slowly picking up the pieces and venturing back into urging the Liberals to do what the old man wants, regardless of what the voters want:
MAURICE NEWMAN
The trashed Coalition brand could be saved by turning again to the man they usurped, Tony Abbott.
—
Yes please !!vThat would be a riot, lets have a recycled PM, again.
The New Matilda article is indeed spot on, as I remarked on yesterday.
Something has to give at the ABC. Their clear partisanship and compromised reporting is clear for all to see. They have reduced the credibility of their reporting to such an extent that the organisation, with a few exceptions, is a complete waste of taxpayers money.
We already have enough outlets for right-wing views, without having one that is funded by the taxpayer.
A case in point was the peurile reporting into the Chilcot Report on AM. A two minute summary of the conclusion of the report with short soundgrabs from Chilcot, a father of a soldier and more extensive audio from a clearly deranged Tony Blair.
Then audio of Julie Bishop on Sunrise, and that was it.
The major report into the catastrophe that was the Iraq War, and that was the best that the ABC could come up with?
No mention of Howard, no mention or analysis of Australia’s involvement, just the bland and meaningless justifications from Bishop.
What is the point of the ABC?
victoria
Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 9:14 am
Rogue Scholar
A good result all round
—
Yeah, I think so. Imagine having to cuddle up to Pauline Hanson and Katter et al to get anything through the senate – ewww !
I suppose eyes and words will soon be focused on getting the budget measures through both houses. We ain’t seen it all the fun yet. We are still digesting the first course, the main course will surely have a little of lemon with it.
With 76 on the tab likely, suddenly Turnbull is on the streets of the Brisbane CBD starting his victory lap this morning and talking to the media again, even Sky News. No commiserations to the 14 + LNP people who lost their seats, just a pathetic golf clap thank you to their volunteers. What a flog he has become.
Rogue Scholar
The likely count may well be 76 seats to the coalition, but I am not calling it just yet. Could still be the minimum of 74 seats. We shall know soon enough
Fwiw Sky tweeted this…….
Sky News Australia
30m30 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Coming up: Malcolm Turnbull set to meet with Bob Katter as Coalition appears just 3 seats short of a majority
And just saw this tweet too!
6m6 minutes ago
ABC Radio Melbourne @774melbourne
It’s Thursday. Who is Government? “In my view it’s 74 to the Coalition” @barriecassidy @InsidersABC #Faine #ausvotes
Embedded image
For all the complaints I’ve seen here about Leigh Sales and her treatment of Mr Shorten, I wonder if a few direct put downs wouldn’t sort her out? He did that rather well with his comment to Mr Tony Jones on Q&A that he was sorry if his answers were interrupting Mr Jones’s questions.
A polite “didn’t your Mother teach you that it’s rude to interrupt” might give Ms Sales something to think about.
The dealing with pushy journos is where Shorten has come a long way. On one of his more recent face ups, in Brisbane I think, someone was harrying him to his right. He answered the guy’s question and then the guy came back for more, Shorten indulged him and when he went for his third bite, Shorten did a small turn of his body to his left, said where he would take his next question from, and continued. I always thought FPJG was far too polite with the journos and treated them with the respect she should have been entitled to. I used to get very cross when she accepted “Julia” rather than PM or M/s Gillard or whatever. I notice the Press pack back off using either “Bill’ or “Malcolm” when they address either of these two. As many of these journos, with not much experience but egos the size of the Harbour Bridge think they can do just as they like, maybe a kick in the shins is the way to go. Also, I would insist that the journos state who they are and who they represent as they do in the NPC. This mob are given far too much latitude. But then, I guess, the press and the politicians are in an incestuous relationship, so I guess they know the system best.
Soc: “Funny how that Labor leadership speculation has died down. Were Fran Kelly and others “wrong” about that too? Being professional journalists, I wonder what two sources they used to corroborate that story before putting it to air?”
Ironic how the “political reporter” on Lateline made that connection last night. Intoduced the segment with something like “but Shorten is still being asked questions about his own leadership” and then cut to a shot of himself asking Bill S whether his leadership was still under threat, as his sole proof of the original proposition!
The problem with the ABC goes beyond a few rogue journalists and is systemic – even the so called satiric shows are infected.
Personally I still reckon 74 or 75 for the Libs is more likely than 76. Cowan and Hindmarsh will be ALP, Capricornia almost certainly will be too, leaving the ALP to pick up one of Flynn or Herbert, both of which I reckon are still line ball. I’d give away Forde.
pedant @ #64 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 9:59 am
I don’t have an issue with Sales. Every time she’s tough on any Labor person Bludgers cry foul, but when she destroys a Lib (which she has done; remember Tony Abbott?) the bouquets and congratulations flow. She interrupts when the pollie isn’t answering the question and she does it to both sides. There might be instances where she does it more to Labor one night and not as much to a Lib the next, and Labor people jump up and down, but every interview is different and over the long run I think she treats both sides equally enough.
Even if the ALP winds up in Opposition after this election, one of the very good outcomes for them is that whatever the press might want to say about Mr Shorten in the future, they won’t be able to portray him as a lightweight.
I’m reminded of the 1969 election, where John Gorton suffered a swing of over 7%. That by itself consolidated Gough Whitlam’s image in the public eye as a major figure, and paved the way for the 1972 ALP victory, after three years in which the incumbents essentially fell apart.
An election can have the effect of wiping the slate clean too: most of the stuff dredged up by Mr Heydon will be consigned to ancient history in the public mind.
Good Morning
This is why the leadershit about Shorten has stopped. Reality bites
workmanalice: Labor will meet on Friday to endorse Bill Shorten as Labor leader until the next federal election #ausvotes https://t.co/yiFfe4UQkA
Andrew Wilkie presser now on Chilcott
Ctar1 – Hoskin’s article on the ABC is a flat-out corker.
I’ve heard that during the election campaign Turnbull’s office froze out the Guardian. Does anyone know about that? It would explain why the Guardian fell off the Malcolm bandwagon at the end.
My view as well Rod. I’m pessimistic about Flynn, 50:50 on Herbert, completely discounting Forde and cautiously optimistic about the others. Expecting 76, hoping for 75.
SkyNewsAust: .@WilkieMP says the findings of the #Chilcot Inquiry apply just as much to the US and Australia as the UK
Triton @ 10.34am: Actually, I’m not as preoccupied as some here about Ms Sales’s treatment of Mr Shorten, as I don’t think politicians should complain; they should fight back. And I was pointing out one way in which that could be done.
But I don’t like interviewers who interrupt all the time. I’m actually interested in hearing what their guests have to say. And if the guest is waffling, I’m quite capable of working that out for myself, and drawing the appropriate conclusion. In any case, more often than not, the interruptions aren’t well thought out, and are just disruptive rather than devastating: the questioners would often be better off using the time in which the guest is waffling to come up with a really well considered question.
hughriminton: The Bali bombing, the #lindtcafe siege, “would not have happened”
had #JohnHoward not led us to #IraqWar – Wilkie. https://t.co/jPkdQPMuli
SkyNewsAust: .@WilkieMP says the Iraq War created the circumstances for the rise of Islamic State and current terror threat is a direct result of 2003
joeobrien24: Wilkie says a number of political leaders have blood on their hands over the Iraq War .. and goes on to talk about Howard and Downer.
SkyNewsAust: .@WilkieMP says invasion of Iraq is the biggest foreign policy and security blunder in Australia’s history #Chilcot https://t.co/N9j65dicsi
Good morning all,
Counting still underway and the MSM has no idea what is happening.
All the anger at the AEC about getting totals wrong, getting seat results arse up etc etc is just bullshit.
The AEC has been clear as to what it’s figures are showing. The problem is not the AEC but how journos and other commentators are interpreting the data.
Re the above Essential result.
It is showing a labor PV of 37. My recollection is the Essential poll released on election eve had the labor PV down to around 34.5.
I must be missing something but how is it possible for such a difference in just two or three days ?
Would it have something to do with the pre election poll not being a two week rolling average ? If that is the case then there still has been a significant turn around in this latest poll which has the labor PV at 37 from a two week rolling.
I just cannot see how the 34.5 pre poll figure fits in at all?
The reason (s) is most probably staring me in the face but I am too thick to see it.
Thanks in advance for any advice.
Cheers.
joeobrien24: Wilkie says the Howard Govt took us to war with Iraq on a lie .. “no wonder (Bush, Blair and Howard) stand accused of war crimes”
MikeCarlton01: This is worth a read. In 2003, Opposition Leader Simon Crean was absolutely right about Iraq. Vindicated by history. https://t.co/ai9LsE6TEo
Jesus, Wilkie isn’t missing, is he?
On Crean, I thought the speech he gave to the troops as they left for Iraq was the most courageous Australian political speech in decades.
Guytaur,
Labor cannot endorse Shorten tomorrow.
Firstly, voting is still underway in a number of seats and Senate.
When the final result is known and, given labor will not form government, leadership positions are automatically thrown open. Any candidate (s) then have seven days to nominate. The process then moves on from there.
So, no formal endorsement tomorrow.
Cheers.
“This election should also put paid to the idea Labor needs 52% to win an election.”
Although Labor might well end up with >50% of 2PP and lose the election. (But yes, 52% is hyperbolic.)
Very wise words from Andrew Wilkie:
No matter how long it takes, I think collectively we need to keep agitating fro an inquiry into Australia’s involvement in Iraq. It has damaged Australia’s reputation an an “Honest Broker” (this is what a Liberal party member said to me at the time), and caused countless deaths around the world.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-results-2016-malcolm-turnbull-to-form-government-as-vote-count-continues-20160706-gq07k2.html#ixzz4DgDag6Rq
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Doyley
Thanks. Again the media gets it wrong. Wow. I do not have the resources of a newsroom behind me to get it right. Buzzfeed is one of the better ones as well.
Maybe they are putting crap out to combat the crap from News et al.
Martin B @ 10.55: The way things are going, it looks much more likely that the ALP will get just less than 50% of the TPPV, but come damn close to winning. In addition, the coalition will have won a handful of seats by a very small margin, which will mean that the pendulum for the next election (subject to any changes caused by redistributions) will be such that a uniform swing taking the ALP just over 50/50 will likely be enough for victory.
Also, at the next election, any sophomore effect will predominantly be helping the ALP, rather than the coalition, to defend its closest seats.
Guytaur,
If I am wrong I will be the first to put my hand up.
I just cannot see how endorsement would be possible tomorrow.
Cheers and a good day to you.
The point about Leigh Sales, apart from her blatant partisanship, is that she is a really lousy interviewer. In the case of Labour interviewees her interruptions consist of repeating the same question ad naseum. She shows very little ability to employ follow-up questions that show an understanding of the answer, and actually respond to it.
It usually seems that she has a list of pre-prepared questions and lacks the intellect to deviate from these.
Anyway, good to see Wilkie out on the front foot stating the obvious.
On the other hand Julie Bishop was out there spreading the falsehood that our involvement in the Iraq war was bipartisan.
Doyley,
I am not so sure about that. I think it is now clear that the ALP will not form minority government as a result of this election. It may be that Turnbull’s government will collapse, but Turnbull will definitely form government.
I did wonder whether their would be a right-wing coup in th eLNP before Turnbull could negotiate, but with the distinct possibility that the LNP will get to 76, even that is not possible.
I am still hopeful of LNP 75.
“come damn close to winning”
They’ll be ~7 seats short of a majority in their own right (or ~5 if you want to count ‘natural’ left seats as well) which is close, but not wafer-thin close.
To be fair to Sales , I have always thought her last interview with Abbott where she asked him about the economy and he started “we stopped the boats … ” and she cut him off was the point that the Turnbull forces decided to push the button
But that is one against the many where she has not been so good
rogue scholar @ #58 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 9:33 am
Actually, Labor just need to side with the Greens and the NXT, I’m guessing. Worst case scenario, they’ll have to add a couple of left-wing micros into the fray.
I wouldn’t blame the loss of Chisholm on the CFA issue at all. The nearest CFA branch is a long way away. The seat of Chisholm is increasingly turning blue with property prices there averaging over a million. Anna Burke was already seeing swings against her in the last few elections, though she must have been a very popular member to retain it the entire time.
My prediction for the Coalition is 74 or 75 seats to them.
Douglas,
You well may be right.
As I posted before, I will put my hand up straight away and say I got it wrong but I just cannot see how any ” endorsement” would be possible tomorrow.
Anyway, we shall see.
Cheers
In my last post, let me clarify that I think Labor can side with the Greens and NXT for a majority in the Senate.
I wonder if the AEC gave Antony Greene some diazepan on Monday.
He seems much calmer.
Burgey,
No matter how poor Crean’s judgment a decade later was to become, his time as LOTO is unfairly maligned. He showed a strength of character rarely equaled in politics. He stood firm on a vitally important point of principle at a time where thanks to the propaganda of the government gleefully laundered and disseminated by a pathetic media it cost him dear.
He didn’t wait to sniff which way the wind was blowing. He stood up from the first and he has been totally vindicated by history. Shop’s claim that Labor would have made the same mistake in government is nothing more than an unfounded smear of Crean but of course our enduringly useless media will run that without correlation.
victoria @ #63 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 9:59 am
This was a good show. Shame I had to miss the last part to his analysis of government formation as at the at point I’ve just reached the Vet to give my cat a booster shot!