Essential Research: 50-50

Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.

Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,056 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Hello Bludger’s,

    Do we have a government yet? I see from earlier posts the CPG have egg all over them, how unsurprisement. All that’s left now is for the rag tag LNP to gain 76 seats and tell us all they have a mandate, not sure what for though.

  2. Morning DogsB.
    The article on the media linked to in the last thread is a good start, probably won’t make much difference though.

    To be clear it isn’t a tough interview or the swallowing of the storry spun off the record by a coalition spokesman, but the consistency, the lack of policy analysis and in the case of 7:30, the clear A/B comparison in interviews.
    It is one thing to be taken in by an internal poll but to proclaim the changes to parliamentary sittings, the early budget and an 8 week campaign as a master-stroke on the basis of no evidence.
    And in the face of evidence to the contrary.
    It was clear that there was no way in a DD that the government’s position would be improved in the senate, even if they did well in the house, on the assumption good campaigning eventuated.

  3. Iraq war pretexts should be a massive story. More likely we’ll hear nothing about it. Our media long since bought and sold.

    Thanks to the collective wisdom of PB I made enough on seat bets to more than cover my main donation to Labor and then a smaller donation to Oakeshott during the campaign. I can’t believe that only 50 people made donations to the Oakeshott campaign. Effing Pathetic. Next time remember that campaigns cost and even if you only have a dollar to chuck in for a preferred cause, please do it.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Turnbull is within striking distance of forming a government. The right wing rump is just thinking of striking distance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-turnbull-in-striking-distance-as-count-continues-20160706-gpzkjo.html
    Chiclot lays bare the mindboggling incompetence of Bush, Blair and Howard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/chilcot-report-the-mindboggling-incompetence-of-bush-blair-and-howard-laid-bare-20160706-gq06hy.html
    Yet Blair remains unrepentant!
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/06/chilcot-report-crushing-verdict-tony-blair-iraq-war
    It was a damning judgement from Chilcot but it still wasn’t justice says George Monbiot.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/chilcot-judgment-damning-not-justice-tony-blair-crime-aggression
    And now Trump comes ot and says he admired Saddam Hussein!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/06/donald-trump-saddam-hussein/
    Six moments of schadenfreude for progressives after the election. Read it and have a laugh.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/07/06/six-moments-of-schadenfreude-for-progressives-after-the-2016-election/
    The six year sentence handed to Postorius has gone down like a lead balloon with women in South Africa.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/oscar-pistorius-six-year-sentence-sparks-shock-outrage-embarrassment-to-the-justice-system-20160706-gq06fg.html
    Mark Kenny on Turnbull taking responsibility for a poor campaign.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-turnbull-takes-responsibility-for-poor-campaign-as-count-continues-20160705-gpyyfd.html
    Andrew Hastie gets it right on this occasion!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/oscar-pistorius-six-year-sentence-sparks-shock-outrage-embarrassment-to-the-justice-system-20160706-gq06fg.html
    Andre Knott says it’s time for some media introspection as he asks the question of how they gat it so wrong.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-the-uncomfortable-truth-is-the-media-got-it-wrong-how-did-we-do-it-20160705-gpzatm.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    The Nationals are less than impressed with the presidential style of campaigning by Turnbull.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/06/nationals-join-liberals-in-criticism-of-coalition-election-campaign
    Fox News in the US has its troubles. They do day a fish rots from the head don’t they?
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/fox-news-presenter-gretchen-carlson-sues-ceo-roger-ailes-for-sexual-harassment-20160707-gq06ja.html
    How decades of conservative pressure on the ABC is paying off.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/07/06/decades-of-conservative-pressure-on-the-abc-are-paying-off/
    Yes, cheerleaders of the press don’t win elections like they used to.
    https://theconversation.com/cheerleaders-of-the-press-dont-win-elections-like-they-used-to-61991
    The Guardian opines that the failure of the Daily Telegraph to influence the Liberals’ heartland must be a worry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/05/rejection-of-turnbull-in-daily-telegraph-heartland-signals-waning-influence
    Jacqui Maley writes that the Coalition’s unloved right are looking for a leader. Bring it on!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-cory-bernardi-in-talks-to-break-away-from-malcolm-turnbulls-liberal-party-20160706-gpzqak.html
    Past and present crossbenchers slam Turnbull’s negotiation skills and methods whilst praising Shorten’s.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-angry-and-nasty-crossbenchers-slam-malcolm-turnbulls-negotiation-skills-20160706-gpzt3z.html
    James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s hand grenade.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/james-ashby-pauline-hansons-hand-grenade,9210
    John Warhurst says the biggest threat of instability facing us after the election is not the make-up of the house. Rather it would be leadership tensions.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/federal-election-2016-crisis-talk-unwarranted-and-unhelpful-20160705-gpzgqx.html
    “View from the Street” is a ripper of a read today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-when-do-you-reckon-well-next-have-a-government-20160706-gpzuol.html

  6. Section 3 . . .

    Craig Emerson in the AFR gives Turnbull some advice on how he can avoid retreating into the right wing rump. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/election-2016-how-turnbull-can-avoid-retreating-to-the-liberal-rump-20160705-gpze83
    This article in the AFR said Labor donned the battle gear while the Liberals wore slippers for the campaign. Google.
    opinion/election-2016-labor-campaign-donned-battle-gear-while-liberals-wore-slippers-20160705-gpzfbx
    Senior Ministers have undermined Turnbull’s mea culpa. It’s all shaping up nicely.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-results-scott-morrison-and-julie-bishop-undermine-malcolm-turnbulls-mea-culpa-20160706-gpzivp.html
    Times have changed with respect to how long tenants rent housing but the laws have not. They need to be reviewed so that tenants get a fair go.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/cards-still-stacked-against-tenants-advocates-say-20160705-gpzgkb.html
    Jennifer Hewett says Turnbull’s problems are just beginning. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/back-to-the-past-in-politics-20160706-gpzx2c
    A huge reduction in VET students points to a concerning situation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/student-numbers-plummet-by-80000-across-nsw-vet-sector-20160706-gpzqab.html
    Peter Martin on the other big lie of the campaign as he lifts the lid of our free trade (he calls them “import”) agreements.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-elections-other-big-lie-the-coalition-hasnt-delivered-export-agreements-20160705-gpzcx3.html
    Pauline Hanson is wrong about Hurstville (and just about everything else) writes the local MP.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pauline-hanson-is-wrong-about-hurstville-20160705-gpyxjj.html
    The Grattan Institute writes an open letter to Turnbull on Medicare. It’s sound advice. Google.
    /opinion/election-2016-an-open-letter-to-malcolm-turnbull-on-medicare-20160706-gpzpor
    The SMH editorialises about evidence of grave police failings over the Lindt Cafe incident.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/evidence-of-grave-police-failings-in-lindt-cafe-siege-20160622-gpp3es.html
    Greg Barnes wonders whether Hinch should be a Senator.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/should-derryn-hinch-really-be-a-senator-20160706-gpzoas.html

  7. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir on Turnbull’s contrition.

    Michael Leunig’s thought for the day.

    David Pope takes Turnbull window shopping for excuses.

    Ron Tandberg and the Liberals’ post-election celebration.

    Cathy Wilcox with a cracker.

    Mark David and their new three word slogan.

    David Rowe with a sombre Turnbull in bed.

  8. Morning all. My compliments to William on your clarity last night. I heard you talking on the news about the WA One Nation senate candidate and the implications of a conviction for larceny.

  9. Morning all

    BK

    Thank you on today’s offerings. “View from the street” has been a good start to the morning!!

  10. Thanks BK. Peter Martin is correct about the uselessness of our “free trade agreements”. One of the main effects of the US one was to wipe out some of our car components industry, and start the slide to closure of car manufacturing. I suspect the statement no analysis of their impacts is done is not true. Within DFAT it is done, but not released, because either the answer is bad, or the analysys is cooked with unbelievable assumptions to justify them. But hey, those Liberals sure know how to run an economy!

  11. Funny how that Labor leadership speculation has died down. Were Fran Kelly and others “wrong” about that too? Being professional journalists, I wonder what two sources they used to corroborate that story before putting it to air?

  12. Socrates

    The speculation on the Labor leadership has died down purely because it became apparent to our esteemed media that Labor would be dealt out of govt purely on the seat numbers. They didnt need to stick their noses into destabilising Labor’s chances any further. That is how pathetic our media is.

  13. Wont be holding my breath for the media to press Howard on this one

    Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
    Tony Windsor
    10h10 hours ago
    Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor
    Chilcot Report ….what will John Howard the man of steel have to say about going to war without consulting parliament ..

  14. So it seems a Turnbull Government, and that necking a very unpopular first term sitting PM, is only marginally less dumb than necking a mildy popular first term sitting PM. Wonder if both sides can take notes no that.
    So presumably the SSM plebiscite will get the go ahead, Labor would be stupid not too, but that much of the Libs economic destruction might be stopped in the senate. Surely neither Nick or Pauline is gonna want to be responsible for the nasties.
    Hope Nick can force the PM / NBN into a fibre only and to the premises model in SA, would be hilarious.

  15. Chilcot
    Best explanation I heard was that it was a Freudian Invasion, George W Bush finishing off his fathers war. George Snr. was smart enough to listen to his advisers.

  16. The two most salient points from that Matthew Knott article for mine were:

    “Journalists,” Simons concludes, “were too quick to become part of Malcolm’s fan club.”

    Still are, if yesterday’s fawning coverage of Malcolm and Scott’s Big Adventure Walk to the Reserve Bank is any indication.

    And,

    Several ideas took hold quickly in the gallery’s collective brain. That Australians don’t kick out a first term government (despite this happening recently at a state level). And that Malcolm Turnbull’s personal popularity was a decisive advantage against the less prime ministerial Shorten.

    During the campaign, several events became seen as “turning points” for the Coalition despite the polls never really budging. Labor’s admission it would increase the budget deficit over the next four years was one. So was the UK’s departure from the European Union.

    And not only did the CPG fall for this groupthink, but so did Bluey.

  17. Several ideas took hold quickly in the gallery’s collective brain. That Australians don’t kick out a first term government (despite this happening recently at a state level).

    I hope we can put an end to this lazy myth. The last Labor government lost its majority, the last Coalition government lost the two-party-preferred vote. It’s right on the edge with more votes to count, but the Abbott-Turnbull government is right now losing both.

  18. victoria @ #19 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 8:03 am

    TonyLePony
    The ABC have actually been worse during this election than even the commercial networks!

    It hasn’t abated after the election either.

    Case in point, who does theABC get on to the radio this morning to discuss the outcome of the Chilcott Report?

    Jim Molan. Liberal Party member and recent candidate for the Senate in NSW and John Howard’s Army point man in Iraq. He spun so hard in Howard’s defense he must have been dizzy by the end of it.

    And then, to add insult to injury, what do the ABC do? They package it up with a nice little bow and proceed to replay it endlessly every 15 minutes in their ‘news’ bulletins!

    Job. Done.

  19. Regarding the Chilcot report, it is hardly surprising. I was deeply opposed to the invasion of Iraq before it happened because it was obviously going to be a disaster. I will not hold my breath waiting for trials for Bush, Blair, Cheney or Rumsfeldt.

    What I would like to see from Australia’s “journalists” if they still have any courage left to do their jobs, is an investigation into John Howard and Australia’s role. Why did we really go in? Who asked us? Who agreed? Who said it would be OK? Who buried any of our intelligence to the contrary? Andrew Wilkie might be s good person to start the asking.

    Have a good day all, in the glorious new Turnbull government MkII. He may have gotten less than 50% of the vote, but Tony Abbott would say that is OK. After all, George W Bush got elected that way, and look at how well that turned out!

  20. From previous thread
    peter fuller @ #1818 Thursday, July 7, 2016 at 12:35 am

    Bemused,
    I’m intrigued by the contrast in outcomes between the neighbouring electorates of Bruce and Chisholm. Both had new candidates succeeding highly-regarded MPs. My (second-hand) knowledge of the Chisholm campaign suggests that it was conducted in a similar manner to what you have described in Bruce. If anything, Bruce had a more formidable Liberal candidate. My speculation is that Chisholm is more middle-class and probably becoming more so. Yet -2.57% (Chisholm) compared to +2.36% (Bruce) is surprising. Your thoughts?

    I don’t have any first hand observation of the Chisholm campaign so I can’t say if they campaigned as hard and effectively as we did in Bruce. Julian Hill had an amazing network he was able to tap into, he was a successful fund raiser, and very hard working.

    Kroger formidable? Only in terms of the support she was able to get from Lib HO. Never saw her on the ground.

    Your thoughts on the demographics are probably more on the mark and Anna Burke has said publicly that she expected to lose it last time.

  21. And not only did the CPG fall for this groupthink

    On the press gallery getting it wrong, didn’t someone on Insiders on Sunday say this was because they were being ‘briefed’ by coalition insiders who were using internal polling or whatever, rather than using their own judgement?

  22. Herbert ?

    There is one distinctive characteristic about Herbert not present in the battle for Forde, Flynn and Capricornia, the Hanson One Nation influence. So far, One Nation has 10,231 PVs, 13.3 % . This figure includes 2,356 postals already counted. One Nation preferenced Labor on the HTV cards and thus significantly the strong preference flow to Labor in Herbert, along with typically at least 80/20 preference flows of the Green voters [4,665 PV or 6%]. Thusfar, all good news for Labor who had a 620 vote lead in Herbert at 8.00am Wednesday.

    On the other hand –

    1 There are 2,086 uncounted Absent votes and 6,291 uncounted postal votes which would not have been influenced by One Nation HTV cards. Therefore, One Nation preference flows to Labor from uncounted absent and postal votes [8,377] is expected to be lower from these sources than those Labor gained from ordinary voters attending booth’s in Herbert on election day.

    2 As was shown in the first batch of counted postals, the Labor lead shrinks each time postal votes are added, particularly in the four QLD seats up for grabs.

    3 Absent votes in Herbert are expected to include a strong military personell presence, and they tend to be conservative right leaning voters.

    What has Labor got to counter these three negatives from pro Liberal PV and preference flows from the outstanding 8,377 absent and postal voters ? Not a lot – 1,136 provisional votes and 2,492 pre-poll votes which may or may not have been influenced by One Nation HTV cards. Putting these probable 3,628 pro Labor PV and preference votes against 8,377 probable pro Liberal absent and postal votes makes the current Labor lead of 620 votes look a bit squeamish at best.

    I wish I hadn’t thought this seat out now – I would love someone to tell me I am wrong.

  23. There are no words…

    Catholics in Philadelphia who are divorced and civilly remarried will be welcome to accept Holy Communion – as long as they abstain from sex and live out their relationships like “brother and sister”.

    New guidelines published by the conservative archbishop of Philadelphia this month also called on priests within the archdiocese to help Catholics who are attracted to people of the same sex and “find chastity very difficult”, saying such individuals should be advised to frequently seek penance. Because same-sex attraction takes “diverse forms”, the archdiocese also said that some people can still live out a vocation of heterosexual marriage with children, notwithstanding “some degree of same-sex attraction”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/06/philadelphia-catholic-church-rules-divorce-gay-sex?CMP=share_btn_fb

  24. ‘fess,
    Mark Textor is a devious munt like that. He plays the CPG like a Trout fisherman, and being less intelligent than Trout, they fall for his lures every time.

  25. Previous thread:
    bemused @ #1521 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    triton @ #1459 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 2:46 pm

    The trouble is that it’s a solution only for tech-heads. The entire voting population needs to see how the system works and that it’s pretty robust and fair.

    Just like they’ve done with the present system?
    Most won’t care.

    Yes, with the present system everyone can see that it is very difficult to rig an election.

    They’ll care when the result is a big surprise, wildly at odds with the polls, and the losing side claims that the system has been hacked. The winning side won’t be able to prove to voters’ satisfaction that it wasn’t because the technology is over their heads.

  26. Sceptic

    George Snr. was smart enough to listen to his advisers.

    Yep. Chased them out of Kuwait and then gave them a quick hammering on their retreat and then stopped. Right strategy.

    I.e. “Don’t come back”.

  27. ‘fess

    Catholics in Philadelphia who are divorced and civilly remarried will be welcome to accept Holy Communion – as long as they abstain from sex and live out their relationships like “brother and sister”.

    Is the bishop a “Green”?

  28. Tks. Well worth a read.

    Seconded. And it’s good to see it isn’t just PBers who are questioning the ABC coverage of politics. That article makes some very good observations.

  29. Boerwar, Poroti

    Boerwar, Poroti

    In a nutshell, the reason is the Treaty of Waitangi.

    That ensured that the indigenous were at least officially seen as citizens from the get go, amongst other things.

  30. Urggh, getting my posts on the wrong threads!

    This election should also put paid to the idea Labor needs 52% to win an election.

  31. Murdoch’s Oz is slowly picking up the pieces and venturing back into urging the Liberals to do what the old man wants, regardless of what the voters want:

    [Stand firm against Mediscare
    DENNIS SHANAHAN
    It is in the interests of Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison to talk up the impact of Labor’s “Mediscare” campaign.

    Political elites undone by polls
    MAURICE NEWMAN
    The trashed Coalition brand could be saved by turning again to the man they usurped, Tony Abbott.

    Leaders skirting extremism
    CHRIS KENNY
    The corrosive impact of Islamist extremism is evident but our leaders are only making things worse by ignoring it.]

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