First up, the final reading of BludgerTrack, which after the addition of final results from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Ipsos and Essential Research is almost exactly where it was on Wednesday, so far as national voting intention is concerned. However, the Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and Tasmania, and up one in Queensland and Western Australia. As always, I must stress that this is a two-party model that doesn’t take into account the Nick Xenophon Team factor and strong independent challenges in New England and Cowper, which could potentially cut the projected Coalition majority to the bone. I’m afraid I haven’t found time to update the personal ratings.
With the non-major party vote up 3.6% off an already high base in 2013, a lot depends on the accuracy of the assumption that preferences will flow as they did in 2013. Labor did particularly well on Greens preferences at the last election, and seem unlikely to improve upon that performance this time, but the preferences of “others”, who are treated as a homogenous blob, are something of a wild card, given the effective disappearance of Palmer United – although Palmer United preferences behaved almost identically to the remainder of the “others” preferences (i.e. everyone but Palmer United and the Greens) in 2013. The alternative approach is to go off respondent-allocated preferences, as published by Ipsos, ReachTEL and Morgan (which regrettably stopped publishing national polling results during the campaign), although the previous election method has generally worked better except when there were very substantial changes in the make-up of the non-major party vote. The following chart shows how the Coalition’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has trended since the last election, with the yellow line indicating where it was in 2013:
In other words, Tony Abbott had a remarkably consistent downward trajectory, whereas under Malcolm Turnbull it has broadly reflected the government’s overall standing in the polls. It nonetheless ends the campaign 3.7% below the 2013 election figure, which under the circumstances would make a fairly substantial difference, bringing the Coalition’s two-party preferred down to 50.3% and making as much as four seats’ difference on the seat projection.
The next chart tracks the Coalition vote state-by-state since the dawn of the Turnbull era. The most interesting point to emerge is that the Coalition has recovered strongly in Western Australia after appearing in a dire position there at the start of the campaign, possibly because the campaign has focused minds on the federal sphere and away from their discontent with the Barnett government. There has also been an upward trajectory in South Australia, but the static there from the Nick Xenophon Team is such that this should be treated with great caution. Tasmania also seems to have gone its own way over recent weeks, in this case in favour of Labor, although the small sample sizes here are such that this should be treated with caution as well. Elsewhere, the situation seems to have been fairly stable through the course of the campaign.
Now to polls. For starters, I’ve assembled all of the seat polling from the campaign that I’m aware of on a spreadsheet which (I think) you can access here.
The final Newspoll of the campaign was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a bumper sample of 4135, and records the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (down one on last week), Labor 35% (also down one) and Greens 10% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 47%, while Bill Shorten is up one on both measures to 36% and 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-31, up from 45-30.
ReachTEL’s final national poll for the campaign is unchanged on last week at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, although previous election preferences would produce the same result. The forced preference primary votes are Coalition 42.8% (up 0.4%), Labor 34.6% (up 0.8%), Greens 10.7% (up 0.2%). Despite this, and contrary to Newspoll, Shorten’s personal ratings have strengthened and Turnbull’s have weakened. Shorten records his best result yet against Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister, with the latter now leading 52.9-47.1 compared with 57.9-42.1 last week. Turnbull’s combined good and very good rating is down 2.3% to 31.2%, and his combined poor and very poor is up 3.6% to 36.9%, whereas Shorten is respectively up 4.1% to 34.8% and up 0.8% to 38.6%. The survey of 2084 respondents was conducted last night for the Seven Network.
Essential Research has published a special pre-election poll conducted Monday to Thursday, compared with its usual field work period of Thursday to Sunday, which has the Coalition on 42.5%, Labor on 34.5% and Greens on 11.5%. The numbers have been published to the nearest 0.5% because, Essential advises, “nearly all the figures came out very close to the .5”. These are quite substantial shifts when compared with the fortnightly rolling average published on Tuesday, which were Coalition 39%, Labor 37% and Greens 10%, but less so going off the hitherto unpublished result from just last week’s sample, which was Coalition 40%, Labor 36% and Greens 10%. The result is also broken down into results for those who have and have not yet voted, with the former (Coalition 45%, Labor 33%, Greens 10%) more favourable to the Coalition than the latter (Coalition 41%, Labor 35%, Greens 12%). The two-party preferred results are 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition overall, 54-46 among those who have already voted, and 51-49 to Labor among those planning on voting tomorrow. Thirty-eight per cent say Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals ran the better campaign compared with 29% for Bill Shorten and Labor, and 48% expect the Coalition to win compared with 21% for Labor. The poll also finds 14% saying Brexit will be good for the Australian economy, 26% bad and 34% makes no difference, and 15% saying it will make them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% more likely to vote Labor, and 64% makes no difference.
The weekly ReachTEL marginal seat poll is from the Labor-held Melbourne seat of Chisholm, where Labor has been weakened by the retirement of sitting member Anna Burke, and perhaps further by the Country Fire Authority issue. The poll finds Labor hanging on by a margin of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 41.5% (down 2.6% on the 2013 election), Labor 37.7% (up 1.8%) and Greens 15.1% (up 5.6%). The closeness of the two-party headline is down to a much stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals compared with 2013. If previous election preference flows are applied, the Labor lead is 54-46. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 627.
It sounds as if the Greens membership have done a great job for their party today at the polling booths. Whatever you might think about that party, they seem to have a lot of youthful energy about them.
All the kids I know seem to support them!
Now I know why I was robocalled by Malcolm Turnbull, Fred Nile and Michael Baird.
For Tony Abbot’s seat of Warringah, Labor has the No.1 position and the donkey vote advantage.
Also the democracy sausage on a roll at Harbord public school was excellent.
You gotta laugh
Kathie Chappell – @katienarrabeen
@JohnWren1950 on a booth in Warringah. Tony’s men confirm Turnbull will be out by Xmas. Tony in!!!
9:08 PM – 1 Jul 2016 from Sydney, New South Wales
3 RETWEETS2 LIKES
Righto, here’s a prediction. Despite all the potential for chaos, I’m tipping a disappointingly tame result, at least in the HoR.
House
New South Wales
Labor to Liberal – Greenway
Liberal to Labor – Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Reid
National to Labor – Page
Northern Territory
Country Liberal to Labor – Solomon
Queensland
National to Labor – Capricornia
Palmer United to Liberal – Fairfax
South Australia
Liberal to Labor – Hindmarsh
Tasmania
Liberal to Labor – Lyons
Victoria
Independent to National – Indi
Labor to Liberal – Bendigo, McEwen
Western Australia
Liberal to Labor – Burt
Total – Coalition 84, Labor 63, Greens 1, Independent 1, Katter’s Australia 1
Senate
ACT – Labor 1, Liberal 1
NSW – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Christian Democrats 1, Greens 1, Liberal Democrats 1
NT – Country Liberal 1, Labor 1
Qld – Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 1, Lazarus 1, One Nation 1
SA – Liberal 4, Labor 3, Xenophon 3, Family First 1, Greens 1
Tas – Liberal 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, Lambie 1
Vic – Coalition 5, Labor 5, Greens 2
WA – Liberal 5, Labor 4, Greens 2, WA National 1
Total – Coalition 31, Labor 26, Greens 9, Xenophon 3, Christian Democrats 1, Family First 1, Lambie 1, Lazarus 1, Liberal Democrats 1, One Nation 1, WA National 1
lizzie
Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 2:10 pm
Well said.
The second half of the family just voted. No queues, everyone happy.
Reports from 4 booths indicate the majority of the Liberal workers in Bonner are in fact unemployed people given this work thru an Agency. Being paid $10 an hour, Real Estate Agencies picking up the tab for Vasta.
Actually spoke to two of them myself to confirm. A day’s work for 10 per hour.
Only the booth captain and three assistants members of the Liberal Party.
Otherwise all quiet, no hassles, appears at least half the seat has prepolled.
Is there any sight more heartbreaking than a ten-year-old boy handing out HTV cards for Family First?
No sausage sizzle and almost an hour long queue too ( seat of Wright, Qld). Doesn’t help that lardarse Buckholz will most likely get back in either.
@itsthevibe
maybe a dead puppy, but at least the puppies pain is over then.
Meher Baba:
My younger friends and family on Facebook frequently share and like Greens posts and the millennials at work this week have been saying they’re voting Green.
Voted earlier today in Ryan. Good lord, the QLD Senate ballot paper was enormous. Way bigger than in 2013. Thank heavens for OPV – I’d probably still be standing in the polling booth if I had to number every box.
So, my prediction for tonight. I’m not going to even attempt a guess at the precise seats, but I reckon a very slim Coalition majority is looking most likely, sadly, although a hung parliament leading a Coalition minority government is a definite possibility, and I still haven’t entirely given up hope of Labor just managing to pull off a victory if things go just right in key seats.
This tweet has spurred quite a bit of responses about being given incorrect advice by AEC staff when they’ve gone to vote in the Senate:
I guess it’s to be expected with this being the first election with the changed laws. But still.
Just voted in Banks and saw a lot of the Chinese community holding ALP how to vote papers unlike last campaign when the Chinese Community were instructed by their leaders to do so.
Chris Gambian is a new and very smart candidate and took his complaint to the electoral commission.
Two observations from voting this afternoon in Bradfield:
* Booth workers present from Liberals, Labor, Greens, Christian Democrats and Australian Liberty Alliance. Only one ALA bloke, but it was a surprise to see anyone at all representing them.
* AEC staff all saying “Vote 1 to 6 above the line or 1 to 12 below the line” in relation to the Senate ballot paper. No mention that you could vote for more than that if you liked, unless the voter asked.
In other news – GO THE TAFFY’S!
Wales 3
Belgium 1
#Euro2016
asha leu @ #811 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 3:03 pm
I know right?
I tried numbering 50 boxes below the line, and ended up spoiling the first ballot by putting the 49 in the wrong party box and ended up having to do the whole thing over again.
(Caused a bit of commotion too. The first time for everything is always bloody awful.)
Also, I saw a HTV-er for Glenn Lazarus Team. Anybody else seen them around?
Voted in Higgins.
Lots of optimistic Greens volunteers, a few weary Liberal ones and a solitary red shirt. The Greens have done well in Higgins and the seat is definitely in play.
Overheard a voter who was planning to vote Greens – despite being mid 30s he said this was the first time he’d enrolled to vote.
The Aec staffer that gave me my ballot papers said “at least 6” for senate. But I heard the other Aec person next to him telling voters “number 6 boxes”.
The Senate ballot paper is laughably big. It’s actually ridiculous, I was struggling with it to the point it ended up half wrapped around my neck. Anyway, on a positive note, love the new Senate voting rules. I numbered all the progressive parties above the line and left the likes of the Liberals, Family First and Rise Up Australia to rot in zero preference hell.
You know – one reason I really want ALP to win … to see the looks on the faces of the flippant media smarty-pantses like PVO.
These people who treat our democracy like a game, really irk me.
Voted in Burwood (Reid). Took an hour. What totally amazed me was how quiet everyone was. I deliberately chatted first to a green and then an ALP HTV distributor just to break the boredom.
The ALP guy commented on how civil it is this time around. I nearly offered to go an kick over a few signs to get some excitement happening, but decided my family would frown on me being arrested. I was deliberately ‘loud’ (my kids would have been so embarrassed so it was a good thing I was alone). I said to the Green guy (after he commented how few people really knew what they were voting for/against)that I really didn’t understand why so many people voted against their own best interests by voting for the Libs. Dunno if many heard or would take heed, but it felt good to say it out loud.
I bought myself a new handbag instead – a celebration that whatever the outcome (which I am still feeling positive about) ALP has run a very good race.
citizen @ #46 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 6:55 pm
Galaxy – half live-phone-poll half online
Newspoll – half robocall half online
Galaxy seat polls are all robodial. Assume those branded Newspoll are the same.
itsthevibe @ #807 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 2:52 pm
Social Services should turn up and charge the parents with child abuse.
In the seat of Higgins
Jason Ball
Jason Ball – @greensjason
They’ve voted Liberal all their lives. Today they cast their vote for the Greens. Thank you so much
Here is image
https://mobile.twitter.com/greensjason/status/749080369463332864
Young Nick was right OPV is an exciting and fun way to vote, and you didn’t need to cast a preference for any of the parties that tried to rig the senate in their favour.
I nearly drove off the rode when I saw a Family First sign today. I thought they’d long gone. Made sure I put them last on my House of Reps ballot. Second last was the Australian Christians. Third last was the Libs!
Nick Xenophon: “I will buy a bottle of Grange for any journo here who predicts a hung parliament. It won’t happen.”
Jenauthor
I understand how you feel about the msm reporting on this election. They have been appalling. Having said that David Speers is an exception
oh well my footy team is getting a flogging hope that is only one that I support goes that way
I think I was told:
1-6 for yellow small paper.
For senate paper:
1-12 below the line or
1-6 above the line?
On Senate voting;
I turned up and voted at the Embassy in Phnom Penh on their first day 2 weeks ago.
No one working had a clue how to vote in the Senate and the only poster they had was from the old system of just vote 1 above the line.
I pointed this out and explained to a couple of voters what was required but I had to go.
The Embassy staff said they had been instructed to use the materials from the last election.
Yep I did pretty much the same with the 6 safest, non-numptyville candidates we had for the Senate.
j k @ #829 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 3:26 pm
*googles how to set up blog*
“These people who treat our democracy like a game, really irk me.”
Thank you, you have summed up the dumbed-down CPG perfectly. This is not a game, but the future of the nation, our kids future and with climate change the world’s future. The gotcha, shallow, shrill, hysterical, ideological group-think that passes as journalism has real effects to all of us. The SMH calling for a vote for the ‘social reformer’ Turnbull was the last straw for me
Kelly O’Dwyer with voters queued up to vote. Another reason to early vote if you live in a coalition seat is to avoid the sitting member when voting!
https://twitter.com/rgibli/status/749106748812775424
This stuff about whether or not polling staff say “at least” 6 ATL or 12 BTL is a storm in a teacup.
With the great mass of voters, the key thing is to make sure they number enough boxes. The voters who want to number every last box are going to be the more engaged, who will already know what they are doing.
I’d rather save my anxiety for something that really matters.
smh.com.au @smh
Tony Abbott says he would have used election campaign to secure a mandate for budget cuts that the Senate blocked
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@BriggsJamie is heckled on his way to cast his ballot for the seat of #Mayo #ausvotes #votingday
(link: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2016/07/02/briggs-verbally-attacked-at-polling-station.html) skynews.com.au/news/politics/…
Yeah I had correct the AEC person giving me my Senate paper that she should be saying “at least 6”. Not sure she believed me.
WWP: “…you didn’t need to cast a preference for any of the parties that tried to rig the senate in their favour.”
Surprised to hear that you didn’t give a preference to Labor, as I thought you were rusted on.
It was Labor, after all, who changed their principled position for much-needed reform when Conroy, Dastyari and co thought they had proved on their bodgy calculators that Labor had a slightly better chance of winning more seats under the previous system. And they then filibustered to try to stop the Senate having time to vote in the changes.
It’s the sort of party machine-driven nonsense that is creating what I saw at the polling booth today: lots of bright young things putting up banners and handing out HTVs for the Greens, and a couple of tired old people handing out for Labor, with no banners and little enthusiasm.
I’m thinking a LNP minority government. Labor c69 LNP c73 NXT 2 or 3 Mayo Barker, maybe Grey, Greens 2 (Batman, hopefully Higgins), Katter, Indies McGowan, Wilkie, Oakeshotte or Windsor. But hopefully better with the Labor and LNP numbers swapped.
Senate – Coalition 29/30, Labor 25/26, Greens 8/9, Xenophon 3/4, Hinch 1, Family First 1, Lambie 2, Lazarus 1, Liberal Democrats 1/2, One Nation 1, WA National 1
meher baba @ #838 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 3:35 pm
I disagree, this comes down to the integrity of the ballot.
By telling people to only number 6 above or 12 below you increase the chance of an exhausted ballot which may become critical when you get down to the last couple of seats.
When I first heard that above the line Senate preferencing was to be introduced in this election, I rejoiced, and thought, “Finally, common sense has prevailed. Voting sensibly will now be that much easier.”
However, this seems to have been countered by the 112 candidates running for Senate in Victoria (I assume it would be more in NSW). Has the bar been lowered for nomination or something?
The ballot sheet was nearly twice the width of cubicle (as I discovered while creating a suitably adorned “democracy aeroplane” which unfortunately didn’t fit in the near-full ballot box).
Numbering 48 boxes above the line was quite an ordeal (arguably harder than numbering 60-odd below in previous elections, as many of those could be grouped by party). At one point I contemplated asking one of the polling officials if they had any Nurofen for my neck. So, in future, I figure I can save some time and energy by following this system:
1 – Obscure independent who seems to talk sense
2-7 – Minor parties I find somewhat palatable
8 – Major party I dislike less
9-18 – Minor parties who appear at least somewhat competent
19-22 – Pseudo-Christians
23 – Major party I dislike more
24-37 – Racists, fascists and other assorted crazies
38 – Anti-vaxxers
Did anyone have a similar experience?
kevjohnno @ #841 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 3:39 pm
You should have just shown her your Senate ballot paper, it’s written on there!
Too slow thinking on my feet Barney.
On the ballot paper length stuff, I really think this needs to be the next focus for reform. There are some exceedingly obvious ones that I can’t imagine facing any opposition (along the lines of requiring a certain number of members in a particular state to run for the Senate there). I also really do think it’s time to up the registration requirements (to at least 750 members but maybe even 1000), and probably the nomination requirements too.
Good luck to ALP from Greece have taken heart from laTexas betting plunge on ALP $8 this morning now $4 something is Up?
Woops got excited and didn’t proof read … late betting plunge don’t know where spellcheck check found last Texas from