First up, the final reading of BludgerTrack, which after the addition of final results from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Ipsos and Essential Research is almost exactly where it was on Wednesday, so far as national voting intention is concerned. However, the Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and Tasmania, and up one in Queensland and Western Australia. As always, I must stress that this is a two-party model that doesn’t take into account the Nick Xenophon Team factor and strong independent challenges in New England and Cowper, which could potentially cut the projected Coalition majority to the bone. I’m afraid I haven’t found time to update the personal ratings.
With the non-major party vote up 3.6% off an already high base in 2013, a lot depends on the accuracy of the assumption that preferences will flow as they did in 2013. Labor did particularly well on Greens preferences at the last election, and seem unlikely to improve upon that performance this time, but the preferences of “others”, who are treated as a homogenous blob, are something of a wild card, given the effective disappearance of Palmer United – although Palmer United preferences behaved almost identically to the remainder of the “others” preferences (i.e. everyone but Palmer United and the Greens) in 2013. The alternative approach is to go off respondent-allocated preferences, as published by Ipsos, ReachTEL and Morgan (which regrettably stopped publishing national polling results during the campaign), although the previous election method has generally worked better except when there were very substantial changes in the make-up of the non-major party vote. The following chart shows how the Coalition’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has trended since the last election, with the yellow line indicating where it was in 2013:
In other words, Tony Abbott had a remarkably consistent downward trajectory, whereas under Malcolm Turnbull it has broadly reflected the government’s overall standing in the polls. It nonetheless ends the campaign 3.7% below the 2013 election figure, which under the circumstances would make a fairly substantial difference, bringing the Coalition’s two-party preferred down to 50.3% and making as much as four seats’ difference on the seat projection.
The next chart tracks the Coalition vote state-by-state since the dawn of the Turnbull era. The most interesting point to emerge is that the Coalition has recovered strongly in Western Australia after appearing in a dire position there at the start of the campaign, possibly because the campaign has focused minds on the federal sphere and away from their discontent with the Barnett government. There has also been an upward trajectory in South Australia, but the static there from the Nick Xenophon Team is such that this should be treated with great caution. Tasmania also seems to have gone its own way over recent weeks, in this case in favour of Labor, although the small sample sizes here are such that this should be treated with caution as well. Elsewhere, the situation seems to have been fairly stable through the course of the campaign.
Now to polls. For starters, I’ve assembled all of the seat polling from the campaign that I’m aware of on a spreadsheet which (I think) you can access here.
The final Newspoll of the campaign was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a bumper sample of 4135, and records the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (down one on last week), Labor 35% (also down one) and Greens 10% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 47%, while Bill Shorten is up one on both measures to 36% and 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-31, up from 45-30.
ReachTEL’s final national poll for the campaign is unchanged on last week at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, although previous election preferences would produce the same result. The forced preference primary votes are Coalition 42.8% (up 0.4%), Labor 34.6% (up 0.8%), Greens 10.7% (up 0.2%). Despite this, and contrary to Newspoll, Shorten’s personal ratings have strengthened and Turnbull’s have weakened. Shorten records his best result yet against Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister, with the latter now leading 52.9-47.1 compared with 57.9-42.1 last week. Turnbull’s combined good and very good rating is down 2.3% to 31.2%, and his combined poor and very poor is up 3.6% to 36.9%, whereas Shorten is respectively up 4.1% to 34.8% and up 0.8% to 38.6%. The survey of 2084 respondents was conducted last night for the Seven Network.
Essential Research has published a special pre-election poll conducted Monday to Thursday, compared with its usual field work period of Thursday to Sunday, which has the Coalition on 42.5%, Labor on 34.5% and Greens on 11.5%. The numbers have been published to the nearest 0.5% because, Essential advises, “nearly all the figures came out very close to the .5”. These are quite substantial shifts when compared with the fortnightly rolling average published on Tuesday, which were Coalition 39%, Labor 37% and Greens 10%, but less so going off the hitherto unpublished result from just last week’s sample, which was Coalition 40%, Labor 36% and Greens 10%. The result is also broken down into results for those who have and have not yet voted, with the former (Coalition 45%, Labor 33%, Greens 10%) more favourable to the Coalition than the latter (Coalition 41%, Labor 35%, Greens 12%). The two-party preferred results are 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition overall, 54-46 among those who have already voted, and 51-49 to Labor among those planning on voting tomorrow. Thirty-eight per cent say Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals ran the better campaign compared with 29% for Bill Shorten and Labor, and 48% expect the Coalition to win compared with 21% for Labor. The poll also finds 14% saying Brexit will be good for the Australian economy, 26% bad and 34% makes no difference, and 15% saying it will make them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% more likely to vote Labor, and 64% makes no difference.
The weekly ReachTEL marginal seat poll is from the Labor-held Melbourne seat of Chisholm, where Labor has been weakened by the retirement of sitting member Anna Burke, and perhaps further by the Country Fire Authority issue. The poll finds Labor hanging on by a margin of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 41.5% (down 2.6% on the 2013 election), Labor 37.7% (up 1.8%) and Greens 15.1% (up 5.6%). The closeness of the two-party headline is down to a much stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals compared with 2013. If previous election preference flows are applied, the Labor lead is 54-46. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 627.
Daniel B:
I found the font size on the Senate ballot paper this election to be much smaller than previously and therefore much harder to read. Fortunately I was the only person voting at the time so could hold the paper at a distance to read the candidates. The WA Senate ballot paper was big, but not as big as other states have experienced.
God the ALP can be stupid sometimes. Got my how to vote and they want you to put the Liberal Democrats at 6. I chose the Pirate Party instead. This is in NSW.
Mari:
Good to hear from you. Hope you’re enjoying your trip!
I wonder if having the anti-vaxers (so-called Health Party) at number one on the huge NSW Senate paper will help to draw away and exhaust more conservative (ie stupid) people?
Number one as in the spot on the far left.
Report from am stint in Darley (Ballarat. In addition to Labor, Lib, green HTVs, there was a local independent and a Christian, DLP and Pauline Hanson. The DLP and Pauline Hanson didn’t last long. The HTVs were quite civil and chatty, including one chap (the independent local) telling us the CFA had cancelled their fund raiser because it had all become too political. Man, it was busy from really early. Good vibe. Went through at least 4 boxes of HTVs. One woman deliberately sought me out as a Labor HTV t0 find out how to vote for herself and her elderly parents, as she was desparate for Labor to get back and she didn’t want to stuff up 3 votes.
Thanks for the blog, William. It’s terrific being able to get the feedback from all over the country and enjoyed your bit on Raf Epstein’s show.
From a Ch9 producer, seems legit
There will be an exclusive @9NewsAUS #Galaxy exit poll at 5pm sharp #ausvotes
Simple solution to the size of the ballot papers: a substantial increase to the deposit. Every additional name on the Senate paper significantly raises the cost of the election. So people who choose to run with not the slightest chance of winning should be made to pay a large price for their vanity.
Eg, what on earth are these Science Party and Arts Party candidates on about? Labor and the Greens both have really good policies on science and the arts. These candidates aren’t going to get even slightly close to getting elected. If they are trying to make a point, the only conclusive point that their low vote tallies will make is that nobody much cares about science or the arts.
Perhaps the Senate ballot papers will be large this time on a one-off basis, because a large number of the candidates had already planned to stand because they stood a reasonable chance under the old system. And now, even though the ground rules have changed, they were so far down the road towards standing that they decided they still might as well do so. But they’ll be gone next time.
Confessions
Thank you
Loving Greek islands as always being spoilt rotten by my “families ‘ 2 more days here Serifos , back to Milos for 2 days then fly out for Calvary Canada via London to start rockymountaineer train to Vancouver, final 2 weeks with Canadian friends. Home in Oz 3oth July
Mari “don’t know where spellcheck check found last Texas from”
Texas hold’em?
Off to do HTV and scrutineering. Br back much later.
Meher baba
Good one
Former Liberal South Australian Minister now independent Liberal Minister in the state Labor Government giving out Xenophon HTC cards in Mayo…..My brain hurts
mari
I was wondering why the Landowners Association of Texas were punting on our election 🙂
http://www.latexas.org/#!
[Kevin Bonham
Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 3:22 pm
citizen @ #46 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 6:55 pm
Does anyone know if Galaxy uses the same (or different) methodology for polls branded “Galaxy” and those branded “Newspoll”?
Galaxy – half live-phone-poll half online
Newspoll – half robocall half online]
Thank you Kevin.
Peter van Onselen going hard on Cormann’s utter bullshit, 8 weeks too late. He did it in 2013 too. “I’m not biased, I was critical of the Liberals before the election”. Yeah mate, at 4pm on Election Day.
In relation to the AEC workers not being fully across the detail of the Senate vote, as late as Tuesday this week the AEC put out a last ditch call for workers to help staff polling places in Tambellup, Gnowangerup and one other town which I’ve forgotten. One of my friends put her hand up because the pay was worth the hours and the driving. She was promised training, but they had to cancel the training on Thursday night, and as late as Friday afternoon she hadn’t heard anything about when she’d be trained.
I wonder if this happened elsewhere.
HTC should be HTV in my previous post
Mari:
Enjoy. Hopefully the election will bring some good news for you to come home to. 🙂
Heavy voting at my booth in Griffith. People lined up from 7.45 and been the same all day.
Beautiful, sunny, winter day here in Brisbane.
Not making any predictions about result, just going to sit back and let it wash over me.
I hope you all have a happy, successful election night.
Yesterday an ad for The Brick appeared on a non-political website:
(wtte) Vote 1 Lazarus – The last line of defence for Queensland.
Not a bad slogan. I would have included him in my Senate vote if he were in ACT.
Surely Labor and Greens voters in New England will preference Windsor. Surely!
Does PVO have exit polls?
Has Malcayman surfaced yet out West? Maybe he’s just going to stay on the train?
Always the way JK.
It is like channel seven’s internet “special investigation” that will be on Monday. Might have been handy before the election to highlight the Lib’s second rate NBN.
Confessions
Just as an aside to getting staff, a friend in Marble Bar was telling me they were looking for staff there.
Turnbull didn’t check the calendar: today is Marble Bar Cup day. Not many people would be wanting to work.
And last night was the Race Ball, which is held in the community centre, also the venue for polling.
I am yet to hear if there were any revellers still going when polling opened this morning.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Perhaps when Truffles took a train out west he decided to get the Indian Pacific.
It’s a pity that democracy gets in the way of us having a smaller ballot paper.
Handed out HTVs for the Greens in Calwell. I have never seen queues like it at a polling booth. At least 60 in line when the booth opened – and what I thought was the early morning rush just kept on, as the queue got longer and longer till I knocked off at noon. Has the AEC cut down Election Day staffing or something because of the numbers who vote early? When I went to vote in my own electorate (McEwen) at around 1230 it was a similar story. And no sissage sozzle. Younger voters were very receptive to the Greens card. I had a nice time talking to a young ALP HTV volunteer – who confessed he would just as happily be a Green and kinky offered to hand out my HTVS while I attended a call of nature. Now for the wait. My guess : 79/65/6. My hope: anything north of 74 for Labor.
No.
I put him numero uno!
Kieran Gilbert suggesting that five seats in NSW and 5 seats in Victoria are in play…
… For the Libs.
It was the Ch9 Galaxy poll that warned of the shock to come in the QLD election.
Poroti
Must be how it got into my spellcheck
Confessions
Do hope Rob Oakeshott will be my new MP no more pruneface yeah once again betting is favouring Rob fingers crossed
Poroti – The whole frolic has a hint of resignation about it, I hope.
If AEC officials have been giving advice that might affect the outcome of the vote does that mean….
Having arrived at the end of this long torturous election campaign, I intend to write only one post to thank all posters for keeping me sane through the inanity and banality foisted upon me through this process of our democracy.
To the labor diehards, Briefly, Boerwar, Tpof et.al your commitment to the of progressive politics on the left is admiral and your reasons not to vote green so passionately expresssed is to be admires for its thouroughness even if some might disagree with you.
To Rod Hagen and his green cohort who feel unfairly picked on, I can understand where Labor supporters are coming from even if you feel it is unwarranted. Making sausages is shitty work which the majors understand but the micros are still coming to grips with.
Perhaps this parliament will hold parties and independents more accountable for their actions (…. I think this is wishful thinking on my part).
A shout out to Compact Crank who constantly amuses me and should get a bravery award for being willing to champion conservative view points in a progressive space.
As I worked the local P&C sausage sizzle, I reflected on Bismarck’s reflections on how marvelous is democracy despite the crap that has to be done to make it function.
Finally a few observations of my polling booth in Bonner.
Compared to the LNP, Labor was a shambles at the start in handing out HTV cards although they get points for one of their volunteers helping a very elderly gentleman get to a polling booth even though he was going to vote LNP.
In the HTV volunteer stakes the LNP had more telegenic females while the ALP raided the Mills and Boon novels for manly men. The Greens looked earnest and sunsmart while the rest looked like their party leaders (Scary).
People started queuing 20 minutes before the polls opened and the que was a 30 minute wait before the polls had opened.
People were constantly whinging unsolicited about the senate ballot paper.
And the P&C sold all of its cakes and sausages so it was a nice little earner to offset some of the fat trimming that is in the pipeline.
On the fact that we had fantastic weather here today I expect the coalition to retain Bonner and government by a slim margin (1-3 seats).
So again thank you Poll Bludgers and I will see you on the other side of the count.
So long and thanks for all the fish.
North Sydney had the trifecta of Family First, Christian Democrat and Liberal Democrat in the lower house
Max
I just voted at my local school in Tangney and there was a much longer queue than is typical at this time of day.
I also wondered about the number of issuing points and my hazy memory suggest there might have been a couple less.
Or maybe all my neighbours took AEC advice and waited for the mid-afternoon lull.
booth report from Curtin, last election booth was 80% liberal tpp (labor vote at 8%)
this election there were 2 people handing out htv cards for labor, 1 for liberal, 1 for green and 1 for the independent. the fences were covered in labor material (never seen any labor presence at all there before). had a brief visit from Julie Bishop while I was there. expecting a decent swing to labor/greens just from the improved presence at the booth.
all my predictions are posted here, didnt do any for nsw or qld…
http://dodgyelectionguess.blogspot.com.au/
JK
PvO has gone south in my estimate.
Had he said something like economists question the Government’s claims in relation to the $66 billion tax cuts just once it might have been different.
I am sorry cos I quite liked PvO before the election.
At times he was a mini-me Sales.
OTOH, Taylor, Tingle and Probyn have gone up in my estimation.
Rossmcg:
I’m not sure what the issue was with the 3 towns here, but I’m pretty sure it’s not because of a local Cup Day!
Steele Blade:
Of course, that works too! 😉
Reachtel is robo calling exit poll as well, for Ch7?
In regards to staffing – the GLW is in charge of our local booth and it has slightly more staff than last time…
boerwar @ #884 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 4:20 pm
You are a bad man.
After 8 weeks, don’t go there. 😉
It will be interesting to see how many people have listened to Hadley and only written “1” above the line on the Senate ballot.
Davidwh – what did the Galaxy exit poll show in QLD last year?
Mari:
Yes, looking forward to seeing how O goes this time around.
So long and thanks for all the fish.
I thought finns was the only dolphin interested in politics!
Nice post, Questions.
Boerwar:
What Barney said. Don’t even think it!!!
Election omens. Sydney Swans have played on four election days. When they have won Labor have won.
Go SWANNIES!!!!!