Newspoll and Essential Research: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; ReachTEL: 51-49

Three late polls find the Coalition with a narrow two-party lead, and Labor hanging on in its seat of Chisholm in Melbourne.

First up, the final reading of BludgerTrack, which after the addition of final results from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Ipsos and Essential Research is almost exactly where it was on Wednesday, so far as national voting intention is concerned. However, the Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and Tasmania, and up one in Queensland and Western Australia. As always, I must stress that this is a two-party model that doesn’t take into account the Nick Xenophon Team factor and strong independent challenges in New England and Cowper, which could potentially cut the projected Coalition majority to the bone. I’m afraid I haven’t found time to update the personal ratings.

bludgertrack-2016-07-01

With the non-major party vote up 3.6% off an already high base in 2013, a lot depends on the accuracy of the assumption that preferences will flow as they did in 2013. Labor did particularly well on Greens preferences at the last election, and seem unlikely to improve upon that performance this time, but the preferences of “others”, who are treated as a homogenous blob, are something of a wild card, given the effective disappearance of Palmer United – although Palmer United preferences behaved almost identically to the remainder of the “others” preferences (i.e. everyone but Palmer United and the Greens) in 2013. The alternative approach is to go off respondent-allocated preferences, as published by Ipsos, ReachTEL and Morgan (which regrettably stopped publishing national polling results during the campaign), although the previous election method has generally worked better except when there were very substantial changes in the make-up of the non-major party vote. The following chart shows how the Coalition’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has trended since the last election, with the yellow line indicating where it was in 2013:

resptrend

In other words, Tony Abbott had a remarkably consistent downward trajectory, whereas under Malcolm Turnbull it has broadly reflected the government’s overall standing in the polls. It nonetheless ends the campaign 3.7% below the 2013 election figure, which under the circumstances would make a fairly substantial difference, bringing the Coalition’s two-party preferred down to 50.3% and making as much as four seats’ difference on the seat projection.

The next chart tracks the Coalition vote state-by-state since the dawn of the Turnbull era. The most interesting point to emerge is that the Coalition has recovered strongly in Western Australia after appearing in a dire position there at the start of the campaign, possibly because the campaign has focused minds on the federal sphere and away from their discontent with the Barnett government. There has also been an upward trajectory in South Australia, but the static there from the Nick Xenophon Team is such that this should be treated with great caution. Tasmania also seems to have gone its own way over recent weeks, in this case in favour of Labor, although the small sample sizes here are such that this should be treated with caution as well. Elsewhere, the situation seems to have been fairly stable through the course of the campaign.

statetrend

Now to polls. For starters, I’ve assembled all of the seat polling from the campaign that I’m aware of on a spreadsheet which (I think) you can access here.

The final Newspoll of the campaign was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a bumper sample of 4135, and records the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (down one on last week), Labor 35% (also down one) and Greens 10% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 47%, while Bill Shorten is up one on both measures to 36% and 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-31, up from 45-30.

ReachTEL’s final national poll for the campaign is unchanged on last week at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, although previous election preferences would produce the same result. The forced preference primary votes are Coalition 42.8% (up 0.4%), Labor 34.6% (up 0.8%), Greens 10.7% (up 0.2%). Despite this, and contrary to Newspoll, Shorten’s personal ratings have strengthened and Turnbull’s have weakened. Shorten records his best result yet against Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister, with the latter now leading 52.9-47.1 compared with 57.9-42.1 last week. Turnbull’s combined good and very good rating is down 2.3% to 31.2%, and his combined poor and very poor is up 3.6% to 36.9%, whereas Shorten is respectively up 4.1% to 34.8% and up 0.8% to 38.6%. The survey of 2084 respondents was conducted last night for the Seven Network.

Essential Research has published a special pre-election poll conducted Monday to Thursday, compared with its usual field work period of Thursday to Sunday, which has the Coalition on 42.5%, Labor on 34.5% and Greens on 11.5%. The numbers have been published to the nearest 0.5% because, Essential advises, “nearly all the figures came out very close to the .5”. These are quite substantial shifts when compared with the fortnightly rolling average published on Tuesday, which were Coalition 39%, Labor 37% and Greens 10%, but less so going off the hitherto unpublished result from just last week’s sample, which was Coalition 40%, Labor 36% and Greens 10%. The result is also broken down into results for those who have and have not yet voted, with the former (Coalition 45%, Labor 33%, Greens 10%) more favourable to the Coalition than the latter (Coalition 41%, Labor 35%, Greens 12%). The two-party preferred results are 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition overall, 54-46 among those who have already voted, and 51-49 to Labor among those planning on voting tomorrow. Thirty-eight per cent say Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals ran the better campaign compared with 29% for Bill Shorten and Labor, and 48% expect the Coalition to win compared with 21% for Labor. The poll also finds 14% saying Brexit will be good for the Australian economy, 26% bad and 34% makes no difference, and 15% saying it will make them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% more likely to vote Labor, and 64% makes no difference.

The weekly ReachTEL marginal seat poll is from the Labor-held Melbourne seat of Chisholm, where Labor has been weakened by the retirement of sitting member Anna Burke, and perhaps further by the Country Fire Authority issue. The poll finds Labor hanging on by a margin of 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 41.5% (down 2.6% on the 2013 election), Labor 37.7% (up 1.8%) and Greens 15.1% (up 5.6%). The closeness of the two-party headline is down to a much stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals compared with 2013. If previous election preference flows are applied, the Labor lead is 54-46. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 627.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,027 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; ReachTEL: 51-49”

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  1. I have been exit polled via a robocall. I didnt catch the name of the organisation.

    Just asked about who I voted for and who I thought ran the better campaign.

  5. This from Lib head honcho. i am curious as to what the lies are?

    Tony Nutt
    Tony Nutt – Verified account ‏@tony_nutt

    Voters should ignore false and dishonest SMS messages they receive this afternoon that are spreading lies. #ausvotes #auspol
    10:29 PM – 1 Jul 2016
    23 RETWEETS28 LIKES

  6. Lots of interesting seats to watch even if Labor doesn’t get far. New England, Cowper, Mayo, etc. If it’s a particularly messy hung parliament hopefully Rob/Tony will be there to try and bring some common sense.

    Sportsbet has ALP odds at $6.50 down from $8.00

  10. Now regret I didn’t also give Secular Party a vote.

    Gave them a vote, but after reading their wikipedia page I now wish I had preferenced them higher. They deserve to be right up at the top alongside Sex and Pirate.

  11. I think we’ll have 72/73 with 5 Indies … toss up which way though i secretly would love ALP 76 and any configuration of Libs and Indies

  12. a r @ #910 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 4:40 pm

    Now regret I didn’t also give Secular Party a vote.

    Gave them a vote, but after reading their wikipedia page I now wish I had preferenced them higher. They deserve to be right up at the top alongside Sex and Pirate.

    I gave them my vote last time but they didn’t appear on the ballot in SA this time. Sham.

  13. I am so sick of hearing about sausages, as though it is some sort of wonderful tradition!! Is this some sort of viral marketing for the ‘Sausage Board’? This is the 12th federal election I have voted in, and I have never heard anything about sausages before! Didn’t see any at my polling booth ( in Hasluck). (I should say that I have nothing against sausages – just find them irrelevant to today).

  15. From the Guardian blog re Senate instructions.

    Back on the issue of the Senate voting confusion. I’ve gotten my hands on the official AEC instructions, and it seems like some volunteers are leaving out a key sentence.

    This is what they should be saying:

    “For the House of Representatives, complete the ballot paper by placing a number one in the box next to the candidate you most prefer and numbering all other boxes in the order of your choice.

    For the Senate, complete the ballot paper by numbering one to six above the line OR by numbering one to twelve below the line, in order of your choice. You can continue numbering as many additional boxes as you choose.

    If you make a mistake and need another ballot paper bring it back to me and I will give you another one.”

    Seems like many people have failed to read the last sentence in para 2.

  16. I preferenced the Secular party BTL in last election Senate, but I couldn’t find them on the ballot this time round.

  18. @Monica Lynagh
    Similar vibe here too in Trentham/Blackwood, all very civil
    and lots of people wanting labor only HTV, not much sign of the CFA issue either.

  19. Whilst voting at my local school said hello to Reid candidate for the ALP, Angelo Tsirekas, when he was being interviewed by SBS.
    Wished him well, he was quietly confident.
    I think he will get up.

  22. I have been out and about in the Adelaide Hills, lots of traffic and wet roads. Seen two crashes that could be fairly bad, certainly cars did not survive, hopefully not to badly injured. PLEASE DRIVE CAREFULLY
    Went past some polling places in Mayo and Boothby, wondering whether NXT might suffer from lack of presence at polling booths. Saw lots more Liberal signage and people, but I did not have a very close look at them all so might have missed NXT people.

  23. What I find distasteful with the sausage sizzle are the buns.

    What’s wrong with a simple slice of white bread?

    Bloody sausage yuppies, destroying Australia.

  24. JK the Galaxy exit poll was the first indication that the LNP was in trouble. It showed a lead to Labor but can’t remember the details.

  25. Well I’ve finally voted, sans sausage which was a disappointment. I numbered over 20 boxes below the line.

    I guess we might see the result in a few hours, or weeks.

  28. Apparently sausages (with or without sizzle) are a big thing on Twitter. Commentator said wtte it points to the uniqueness of the Australian election. Young and carefree or something.
    White bread? Instant indigestion.

  30. My prediction, for what it’s worth: 78 Coalition, 65 Labor, 7 others(including one Xenophon and Rob Oakeshott)

  31. lizzie

    This year Google maps have had locations of sausage sizzles and things. I did like the cake stall in Sydney where there were shortbread biscuits and Plibersek biscuits. No rainbow plebiscites though.

  32. I do like Bernard Keane’s snark (is that the right word?). In response to Arthur Sinodinos tweeting “Getting ready for the Channel 9 election coverage from 5.30 tonight.” Bernard replied “Don’t forget to show up. Do you remember where to go?”.

  37. Final predictions for tonight
    Labor wins: Barton, Paterson, McArthur, Gilmore, Page, Eden Monaro, Solomon, Lyons, Capricornia, Flynn, , Cowan, Burt,(13)
    Labor wins 1/3 out of Herbert, Brisbane, Hindmarsh, Robertson, Dobell, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, Bonner, Forde, , Longman, Dickson, Petrie, Dawson, Hasluck ie 6 seats
    Labor Losses: Batman, Melbourne Ports
    Lib wins: Melbourne Ports
    Lib Losses: In addition to labor gains: Mayo, Boothby, Grey, and one other
    Independents: Oakshott
    Net result:
    Labor: 71
    Green: 2
    NXT: 4
    Independents: 4
    Liberals 69

    Also a few seats to watrch: Wide Bay, Longman, Murray, Waringah, New England

  43. Stupid news.com.au story on Shorten and sausages:

    [Bill Shorten has been panned on social media for his distinctly un-Australian approach to eating a sausage.
    The opposition leader was campaigning at a western Sydney school on Saturday when, like many Australian voters, he grabbed a snag in a crusty breadroll.
    With the cameras were rolling Mr Shorten then somewhat awkwardly bit into the middle of the roll, rather than the end.
    The unusual sausage-eating style has created a mini-storm on Twitter, with many pouring scorn on the Labor leader.]

  45. Saw a quality sausage sizzle at Tinternvale primary school in Ringwood East. Pretty sure they had onion on the go. There was also someone selling muffins at another stall. Shame I didn’t have more time, I would have sampled some of the delights on offer.

  48. Barnaby on 24 this afternoon went on a long philosophical monologue about -well – what a privilege it was to serve the nation, whether he won or lost. The media left him to talk for several minutes before questions. It sounded very much like a concession speech.

    ABC journo: Barnaby looked tired.
    Lizzie: Barnaby looked defeated and a bit pouty.

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