Federal election live thread

Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.

Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.

UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,912 comments on “Federal election live thread”

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  1. Finally got some reliable internet. Much over loaded last night in this tourist trap. wont be in an hour when the hordes awake.

    ALP @ 72 puts a good spin on the day even thought its warm / raining here.

    Turnbull toast in the morning.

  2. Lisa Pryor‏ @pryorlisa
    One Nation wants to abolish the Family Court in favour of a Family Tribunal made up of “mainstream Australians” to decide custody disputes.

  3. despite low single digit numbers themselves they may have prevented the emergence of a progressive Labor administration

    I’m sick of old Labor farts who fail to understand how preferential voting works. How does giving a primary vote to the Greens and putting Labor ahead of the LNP prevent Labor from winning seats?

  4. Congratulations, Briefly, on your efforts in Cowan in WA. You fought the good fight and I hope your fine candidate prevails.

  5. Good Morning

    Well now the split on the right is on full show. This is the first election where the LNP have had their primary vote fall to be taken up by the right. Some of this went back to the 20 year old rise of the Hansonite effect. Some of this went to NXT.

    I think this is a permanent loss to for the right.

    We also have the media realising even if some on this blog won’t accept it that the Greensa are to quote Laura Tingle unstoppable.

    LNP seats in danger now the old Labor refrain they only target Labor is shown up to be the myth it is.

    Cooperation on the left will work. For the left its only the kind of uneasy alliance that the LNP have come to. Do this and progressives working together will have majority government as the “natural order” of things as the right tears itself apart coming to terms with the failure of neo liberalism.

    A philosophy that was always going to fail. Think back to basic economics. Demand = Supply. What neo liberalism does is to push the supply when there is no demand. As we know keep supplying thins with no demand the price falls. With a whole economy change growth for price and its crystal clear. Neo liberalism is a recipe for slowing the economy.

    Its going to take some years for the denial of the voters wishes to impact on the right. The neo liberalism has been flat out rejected in favour of services with higher taxes to pay for them.

    Now is the time for progressives to unite and work together to move this country to a better future.

  6. Dennis Atkins was right with his final moment reflection on the future of Australian politics. The House of Cards is going to seem to be tame compared to what will happen.

    The infighting to come from the right is going to be messy on the scale we saw with the DLP split from Labor. Have no doubt uncertainty is here to stay delivered by the LNP is spades on the right.

    I give 3 to 12 months before the next election which Barrie Cassidy alluded to when he signed off saying the best moments of this election campaign in 2016

  7. 10% of the vote, 1 or 2 lost Senate seats, no gains in the lower house. Yep, the Greens are unstoppable alright.

  8. On WA Labor, I was doing Greens HTVs , yesterday in Stirling. One of the Labor people doing their HTVs was Joe McDonald, former crony of Kevin Reynolds. Might not mean much to people out of WA but it does for us. Admittedly it was a safe Lib booth in a fairly safe seat, but I would like to know who in Labor thought it was a good idea. Joe wasn’t wearing his braces but I am sure many people knew he was. Can’t say he cost Labor many votes but it wouldn’t have helped.
    Also, Labor had lots of signage but couldn’t manage t-shirts for helpers!

  9. i wonder what sort of Sunday Truffles had, hiding behind his ostentatious gates? Whatever he was thinking, it surely wasn’t that he was to blame. The Australian people let him down, those ungrateful peasants.

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