Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.
Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.
UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.
Okay Bludgereenos, do my work for me. What exit polls have reported, and what do they say? I’ll add the detail to the post.
Exit poll in my household, Greens 100%, senate paper fully numbered in order to put Bernardi and Farrell last.
GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Exit Poll of Marginal Seats 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 ALP 50 #ausvotes
WB
Nine exit poll has it 50:50.
Wait… the exits were only of marginals?
AusElectoralCom: A reminder that polling places close at 6pm local time today. If you are in the line at 6pm don’t leave – you’ll be able to vote. #ausvotes
Galaxy exit poll on 9 news has swing per state
sa 5.4, wa 3.9, qld 3.4, nsw 3.2, tas 3, vic 2.9
25 marginals had 3.4% swing, not sure if that is the state breakdowns of jsut those marginals
With those state numbers in ABS caclculator;
64-82-4 with ‘retiring and sophomore effect; ticked,
70-76-4 without factoring it in.
So the seats to watch might be the new MP’s
ABC have Annabel Crabbe as a commentator!! Seriously, bring back Red Kerry!
Will preferences affect that 50-50 result from 2013 preferences?
Sky exit poll: 62% think that Turnbull will win.
Important to note that the ABC calculator doesn’t deal with NXT well or Oakeshott… so
Congrats on the ABC gig, William! Will have to go tune in.
Sky exit poll: 63% say education policy and spending was very importan in determining their vote.
Reith now talking about ‘If the Government lose…’
He is still worried about where it is actually going to end up.
Lowest swing on exit poll is in Vic, does that mean the CFA saga has an impact?
Ch9 exit poll primary votes add to 97% did the remaining 3% just vote for #democracysausage?
Sky exit poll: 51% said that economic management was very important in determining their vote.
mfarnsworth: Chris Uhlmann on News24 says the Liberals moved resources into Warrigah this week. Abbott getting no preferences from anyone else.
And no idea about what is happening with Xenophon in SA. If they are going big it could make the difference between a Coalition majority or minority government or even whether the Coalition have the most seats.
If the Greens go big in Melbourne seats that might impact Labors’ chances of a surprise victory. Even though the Greens will support Labor in the lower house if losing a seat or two makes the LNP have more seats in a hung parliament it could influence who other cross bench MPs support.
Isaac; Vic already had the strongest ALP vote, which means its likely to swing less as there a certain amount of rusted on voters in each state.
Sky exit poll: 27% said negative gearing was very important in determining their vote.
Thank goodness we don’t have here all that weird gumpf we had to scroll thorough last federal election
Alan Jonès and Mark Latham on 7 are calling a hung parliament. So it won’t be.
Sky exit poll: Company tax cuts were rated as important by 26%.
sirgitofsmeg @ #15 Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 5:36 pm
Some people would have refused to answer, not sure how they include that in the figures.
Superannuation was considered very important by 37% of people.
Is there a post somewhere showing what bludger track and the major polls predicted last time vs the actual result?
As the US primary campaign showed us, these “what matters to you” questions are pretty pointless, because they mean different things to different people in different places.
Uhlmann just said the coalition handling of the last Senate, even before they took their seats, was hopeless.
SabraLane: Labor sources telling me Batman will be very hard to hold. Acknowledge tough fight in Chisholm and Bruce. Likely to hold McEwen.
J K – Alan Jones’ Spanish cousin?
The AEC staff explaining the senate paper told me to “number 1 to 6” above the line. Did not preface it with “at least”. I expect a lot of people would have voted above the line and only up to 6. Wondering what sort of level of preference exhaustion this will lead to?
Cassidy says the Greens will drop a Senator, Lambie will have one poss two, and NXT. They’ll be the ‘3rd force party’ in the Senate.
We’ll see.
GuyStayner: 5.30pm and still massive queues to vote in the seat of Melbourne #ausvotes @abcnewsMelb https://t.co/r2Gn2oYW87
This is reportedly caused by below the line voting happening in numers
oops numbers even
A pretty worthless fact as it doesn’t say whether they support changes or want it left alone.
ReachTEL exit poll
51 LNP
49 ALP
Blimey, just got the abc live feed up. My first experience of these Sales/Uhlmann characters you all speak so highly of. /s
davrosz: Just hearing the Channel Seven exit poll has Labor in front. #AusDescides2016
Was the Ch9 exit poll only of marginals? Has this been confirmed yet?
Christ, so the ABC is inflicting Crabb on us. She is one of the worst offenders when it comes to the media either making itself the story or elevating trivial, meme-ish crap above policy and character.
Huh… Guytaur, is your person wrong?
confessions
That is what Ghose tweeted see top of page
J34
Yeah it seems so.
I thought someone earlier said they couldn’t publish exit polls until the polls actually close?
Guytaur:
Oh thanks. I should’ve known William would be all over it 🙂
political_alert: AEC virtual tally room is open for business. Polls close in eastern states at 6pm https://t.co/D5Nz7fLmDi #ausvotes
Predictions:
83 PvO
83-85 Beatty
Work to Rule,
I corrected the AEC staff giving the same advice to the bloke in front of me, and I’m wondering the same as there had been hundreds of people through the booth before I voted.
Exit poll says 70% of NXT preferences flowing to Labor #ausvotes
Does anyone have a AEC Virtual tally room link ?
I cannot see it atm, might only come live after 6 pm