Federal election live thread

Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.

Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.

UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,912 comments on “Federal election live thread”

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  1. Exit poll in my household, Greens 100%, senate paper fully numbered in order to put Bernardi and Farrell last.

  2. AusElectoralCom: A reminder that polling places close at 6pm local time today. If you are in the line at 6pm don’t leave – you’ll be able to vote. #ausvotes

  3. Galaxy exit poll on 9 news has swing per state
    sa 5.4, wa 3.9, qld 3.4, nsw 3.2, tas 3, vic 2.9
    25 marginals had 3.4% swing, not sure if that is the state breakdowns of jsut those marginals
    With those state numbers in ABS caclculator;
    64-82-4 with ‘retiring and sophomore effect; ticked,
    70-76-4 without factoring it in.
    So the seats to watch might be the new MP’s

  4. Sky exit poll: 63% say education policy and spending was very importan in determining their vote.
    Reith now talking about ‘If the Government lose…’
    He is still worried about where it is actually going to end up.

  5. mfarnsworth: Chris Uhlmann on News24 says the Liberals moved resources into Warrigah this week. Abbott getting no preferences from anyone else.

  6. And no idea about what is happening with Xenophon in SA. If they are going big it could make the difference between a Coalition majority or minority government or even whether the Coalition have the most seats.
    If the Greens go big in Melbourne seats that might impact Labors’ chances of a surprise victory. Even though the Greens will support Labor in the lower house if losing a seat or two makes the LNP have more seats in a hung parliament it could influence who other cross bench MPs support.

  7. Isaac; Vic already had the strongest ALP vote, which means its likely to swing less as there a certain amount of rusted on voters in each state.

  8. Is there a post somewhere showing what bludger track and the major polls predicted last time vs the actual result?

  9. As the US primary campaign showed us, these “what matters to you” questions are pretty pointless, because they mean different things to different people in different places.

  10. SabraLane: Labor sources telling me Batman will be very hard to hold. Acknowledge tough fight in Chisholm and Bruce. Likely to hold McEwen.

  11. The AEC staff explaining the senate paper told me to “number 1 to 6” above the line. Did not preface it with “at least”. I expect a lot of people would have voted above the line and only up to 6. Wondering what sort of level of preference exhaustion this will lead to?

  12. Cassidy says the Greens will drop a Senator, Lambie will have one poss two, and NXT. They’ll be the ‘3rd force party’ in the Senate.

    We’ll see.

  13. Boerwar
    Saturday, July 2, 2016 at 5:36 pm
    Sky exit poll: 27% said negative gearing was very important in determining their vote.

    A pretty worthless fact as it doesn’t say whether they support changes or want it left alone.

  14. Blimey, just got the abc live feed up. My first experience of these Sales/Uhlmann characters you all speak so highly of. /s

  15. Christ, so the ABC is inflicting Crabb on us. She is one of the worst offenders when it comes to the media either making itself the story or elevating trivial, meme-ish crap above policy and character.

  16. Work to Rule,
    I corrected the AEC staff giving the same advice to the bloke in front of me, and I’m wondering the same as there had been hundreds of people through the booth before I voted.

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