Federal election live thread

Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.

Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.

UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,912 comments on “Federal election live thread”

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  1. mari @ #1836 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:14 am

    Malcolm Turnbull: “pretty pathetic” according to Laurie Oakes. “It was an angry, bitter speech.”
    Indeed. This is gonna get ugly
    #ausvotes

    ………………………………..

    Turnbull gave a speech of someone who had his arse handed to him, even though I expect him to be sworn in as the next PM.

    But he is greatly diminished, publicly and within his party although the MSM will run around to wipe his arse as usual.

    He delayed beyond acceptable time frames to font up after the election count and then blathered and waffled almost Sir John Kerr-esq

    The so called formidable Barrister and past master of the universe had stuffed it all. He knew and so did his audience and viewers on TV.

    Excuses don’t feed the bulldog.

    Now we wait for the rage of the tory backlash against him.

    Bring.it.on!

  2. rossmcg @ #1834 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:13 am

    Pedant
    Nicolic’s reputation has spread to WA. His ousting, along with Briggs, made me very happy

    We are one country.
    We should rise above petty parochialism and see ourselves as one nation.
    I am as interested in representation from other states as I am from Victoria.

  3. To Be Determined means the AEC isn’t sure who came second yet and so doesn’t want to allocate the TPP, not that the seat is in doubt. Labour can only win one of them – Albo is safe as houses. But many of the seats the AEC has called can be switched later as the formal result is finalised.

  8. Antony has turned off the algorithms and the result has reverted to the AEC figures, albeit with a greater margin of uncertainty.

  11. Some of the comments on that Andrew Bolt column are “interesting”. Someone called Watermelon Crusher is cheering the “demise of the ‘Turnbull Team’” but saddened that Sophie Mirabella lost.

  12. 3 more years of coalition is a terible result for the country. Not just health and education but also science, arts, infrastructure including vital areas of public transport and communications, alternative energy, manufacturing and high tech industries that would rely on all of those.

  13. Oh, and the other thing I forgot to mention was that in my seat (within Wakefield) the ALP was 50+% in terms of preferences from all parties, including traditional weakly-preferencing parties like Family First.

    In my many years of scrutineering in SA this is the first time the ALP have receiving more FF preferences than the Libs.

    I don’t know if that’s been the experience across the board (perhaps other Bludgers could enlighten me), but it would be interesting to know.

  14. This lot sure know how to ‘conduct’ themselves in public –

    An extraordinary barney broke out between Sydney shock jock Alan Jones, a supporter of Tony Abbott, and Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath, one of Mr Turnbull’s principal numbers men in the September leadership coup.

    ….An irate Jones accused the senator of being panicked by negative polling and repeating the failed Labor experiment of changing the party’s leader.

    “There were a lot of bed-wetters in the Liberal Party and you seem to be the captain of the bed-wetters,” Jones said.

    “The reality is that in 2010 Abbott won seven seats from Labor and in 2013 he won 18. In two elections he won 25 seats.

    “I would have thought that that on the basis of winning elections was pretty good form. So now your Queanbeyan mob, Peter Hendy and Co, whom you organised and coordinated and led while Tony Abbott was in Adelaide, have now got to confront this.”

    “The Liberal Party out there will be very, very distressed about what’s happened on Saturday night.”

    Senator McGrath returned fire, accusing Jones of actively campaigning for Labor at the last state election and working against the interests of the Coalition.

    “Alan, I actually don’t care what you think, because you’re not a friend of conservatives, you’re not a friend of the Liberal National Party,” he said, pointing a finger at Jones.

    “You’re the king of the bed-wetters actually. You are actually a grub.”

    The heated exchange was a window into the tensions that are likely to explode within the Coalition given the party’s poor showing at Saturday’s election, even if it does hold on to majority government.

    Mr Turnbull’s leadership will be undermined by the loss of seats

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-you-are-actually-a-grub-alan-jones-in-onair-barney-with-malcolm-turnbull-backer-20160702-gpx60e.html

  17. Some of the comments on that Andrew Bolt column are “interesting”. Someone called Watermelon Crusher is cheering the “demise of the ‘Turnbull Team’” but saddened that Sophie Mirabella lost.

    Search no longer for where the sudden renaissance of One Nation votes came from. Tony (ironically) had them and now they hate Malcolm.

    It looks from some of the Qld results that the ON prefs are going quite strongly to Labor. Must surely just be to stick it up Malcolm.

  20. The AEC site does not declare for any seat.

    Its highest confidence category is “Leading” and there it has Labor 78 and Wafflers 68.

    This was as at 1.45am.

  21. Sky ripping the Turnbull a new one.

    Meanwhile my best seat betting effort ever. Covered my donations to Labor easily.

  22. Still nothing from the disgusting numpty in response to my earlier posts.

    Oh well, I am off to bed now. Goodnight all.

  23. There’s a slim chance a few of the NYD seats may fall to NXT. One will almost certainly be secured by labor. The rest look likely to be coalition, with three liberal and one national.

    72 coa – 71 alp – 1 g – 3 nxt – 2 0?

    Is that possible?

    Wishful thinking perhaps.

  27. Well I’m calling it a night.

    I think it’s been a great day and enjoyed following the discussion here tonight.

  28. For those who are interested, this underlies my prediction about what would happen with the NXT vote in SA:

    ALP Seats – NXT vote:

    Adelaide – 12.26%
    Kingston – 16.82%
    Makin – 16.36%
    Port Adelaide – 18.44%
    Wakefield – 19.86%

    Liberal seats – NXT vote:

    Barker – 29.16%
    Boothby – 20.22%
    Grey – 28.48%
    Hindmarsh – 14.73%
    Mayo – 35.56%
    Sturt – 20.55%

    A note about the SA city/country divide … the lowest NXT votes in both ALP and Lib seats were either fully metro or mostly metro. The highest NXT votes were in country or city fringe/hills seats (ie Mayo).

    In other words, the highest NXT votes were in Liberal seats rather than Labor seats and I suspect strongly that Grey will fall, although Barker might hang on now I look at FP votes. However, postal votes will be crucial here.

  29. Tingle –

    Wherever you look in this evolving election result, it’s a debacle and a recipe for uncertainty.

    …Malcolm Turnbull will have exceptional trouble claiming any authority over his own party, let alone the parliament.

    …..Already on Saturday night, policy positions like superannuation reform were being challenged by his conservative colleagues.

    He does not appear to have the numbers to be able to get industrial relations legislation through a joint sitting of the parliament given a big Senate crossbench.

    War has already been declared on Turnbull by Tony Abbott’s most vocal supporters.

    Even if Turnbull is able to wrangle the forces within his party, he then has to deal with a Senate in which he may have to rely on Nick Xenophon, Pauline Hanson, Jacquie Lambie and Derrin Hinch.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/federal-election-2016-both-malcolm-turnbull-bill-shorten-under-threat-20160702-gpx81l#ixzz4DGdsZEXF

  30. There has never been a more exciting time to watch the parade of Liberal losers explaining innovative ideas about why they lost.

  31. Harping on again about Xenophon, a case in point is looking at where the NXT vote is coming from.

    In Wakefield, NXT has received 19.86% of the vote, but only 1.69% of that has come from Labor. A full 11.16% has come off the Liberal vote.

    This is less crucial in Labor-held seats (apart from helping Labor to hold the seat), but in Liberal-held seats this has potentially disastrous consequences if and when NXT can get ahead of Labor into second position, in which case Labor preferences might get them over the line ahead of the Libs.

  32. Coorey –

    With many seats – and the final result – too close to call, it appears Labor will struggle to form government in its own right.

    There will be no final result until Tuesday. Malcolm Turnbull said he was confident he will form majority government but he will struggle to keep his absolute majority after losing at least 11 seats and possibly six more.

    …Mr Turnbull has lost many of his supporters in the rout and his leadership cannot be considered safe.

    If the government survives, its numbers will be so low it will not have the numbers in a joint sitting of Parliament to pass the two industrial relations bills that triggered the double dissolution election.

    …Andrew Bolt demanded the Prime Minister resign and make way for Tony Abbott.

    …Conversely, Bill Shorten’s leadership looks safe with an anticipated challenge by Anthony Albanese unlikely.

    “The Labor Party is back,” Mr Shorten told supporters, while Malcolm Turnbull stayed holed up inside his Sydney home.

    …He told Mr Turnbull that even if the Coalition prevailed, its mandate, including its budget measures, were dead.

    …By late Saturday night, as recriminations against Mr Turnbull and his supporters were beginning…..

    …The Greens had a bad night, losing at least one Senator and, as of the latest count, had failed to grab another lower House seat other than holding on to Melbourne.

    …Cory Bernardi used Twitter to taunt pollster and chief strategist Mark Textor.

    “Hey Tex, I’m thinking that conservatives actually do matter,” he said.

    …Julie Bishop, who may now face a challenge for her position from Peter Dutton, said the result was to be expected.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/federal-election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-clings-to-power-20160702-gpx313#ixzz4DGfP7PLE

  36. If the LNP do not form majority government Turnbull has to resign on the spot. A PM cannot get up on election night and claim he is confident of a majority government and be wrong. It is an inexcusable mistake.

  37. It’s a shame the NSW North Coast seems to have returned Hogan and Hartsuyker in Page and Cowper. They’re not as malignant as many Coalition MPs, they’re just invisible and useless. It’s dispiriting seeing them re-elected over superior candidates.

    While there’s entertainment (and mileage for Labor) to be had in Turnbull madly lashing out, hopefully the collateral damage to the nation can be kept small.

  38. I’m a n00b at this electoral speculating game so someone will have to tell me where I have messed up here, but here’s my post election autopsy:

    There are 7 not yet determined seats.

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseSeatsNotDetermined-20499.htm

    There’s a chance two of the not yet determined seats may fall to NXT. One will almost certainly be secured by Labor. The rest look likely to be LNP, with three Liberal and one National.

    So the end result could be:

    72 LNP – 71 ALP – 1 Green – 3 NXT – 3 other independents.

    Let’s assume that Adam Bandt is willing to vote with Labor as the Greens and Labors policies align fairly closely. Also he was in the Labor Coalition during the second Gillard government. So we can add one to the new Labor coalitions count.
    72 LNP – 72 ALP coalition – 3 NXT – 3 other independents.

    The Coalition as the party with majority will have to pick one of it’s members to be a speaker. The speaker cannot vote. That means they lose their majority, they will therefore need to form a larger coalition with someone.

    Two of the other independents likely to win a seat have already entered a coalition with labor in the event of a hung parliament in the past (Katter and Wilkie). Assuming they do so again, the LNP securing the remaining other independent (McGowan) wont be enough for it to form government.

    72 LNP coalition – 74 ALP coalition – 3 NXT.

    So the question of who forms government may come down to who NXT will support.

    Then again, I may have way over-estimated NXT chances of picking up another two seats. It’s getting late, sorry.

  39. OlivierK
    So true re cowper and page, I am horrified and dispirited although friends up there have told me rob still has a chance

  40. Holy cow, big changes in the results on the AEC website over the last twenty five minutes or so. The ALP now hold 72 seats NOT including Grayndler which it will almost certainly secure, whilst the coalition is on 66.

    The prospect of a Labor government is looking more and more likely.

    Fascinating things are happening and most poll bludgers are asleep.

  41. I wouldn’t have thought so. Hartsuyker has a primary of 46.5% with 3.4% for the Fred Nile idiot that he’ll pick up almost all of. There’s no real way back from there.

    Page is also disappointing.

    Honestly, we deserve the neglect we get around here if we get decades of uselessness, but just keep voting the bastards back in.

  42. Blanket criticism: yes there are a lot of very close calls. Wouldn’t surprise if quite a few that Labor are up 50.1/49.9 go back to the Coalition on postals, but Turnbull’s born-to-rule hubris about a majority will very likely bite him hard on the arse. But really, what did he have to lose?

  44. How can anyone be sleeping at a time like this?

    Worst case scenario for Labor (if the close seats don’t shift again) we are looking at:

    Labor: 73
    L/NP: 72
    Greens: 1
    Katters: 1
    NXT: 1
    Independent: 2 (Wilkie and McGowan)

    Of course, the close seats WILL shift again as they have been going back and forth for the last hour.

    I knew this one would be close but never expected it to be this close.

  47. blanket criticism @ #1895 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 3:51 am

    How can anyone be sleeping at a time like this?
    Worst case scenario for Labor (if the close seats don’t shift again) we are looking at:
    Labor: 73
    L/NP: 72
    Greens: 1
    Katters: 1
    NXT: 1
    Independent: 2 (Wilkie and McGowan)
    Of course, the close seats WILL shift again as they have been going back and forth for the last hour.
    I knew this one would be close but never expected it to be this close.

    Usually the Coalition gains in the post-count so they may well grab the three where Labor are currently leading narrowly, and some of those Queensland seats tend to come back big in postcounts.

  48. Given that Labor was dealing with incredible media bias toward the Coalition this election, anyone who says Shorten has to go is a mug. Plain and simple, they’re a mug and need to acknowledge themselves as such.
    For a first-term Opposition against a Government in receipt of regular MSM footrubs, their performance has been incredible.

  50. millennial @ #1828 Sunday, July 3, 2016 at 1:11 am

    So based on the AEC numbers, as it stands, this is what the tally basically is:
    Coalition: 73 Seats
    Labor: 71 Seats
    Greens: 1 Seat
    NXT: 1 Seat
    And Wilkie, McGowan and Katter.
    Unsure about Grey though, it might either go Liberal or NXT.

    On this result, there will be no plebiscite. Labor can propose ME and legislate from opposition.

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