What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.
The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.
The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.
The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.
BB [OK, sorry]
No need. But thanks anyway.
Crank
The right wing thinks its fun to label centre left people as Trots, Marxists and Leninists. It does not make it true
SK – I don’t think William likes essential.
The split between the Labour MPs and the general Labour party membership is highlighted by the fact Angela Eagles, who is looking to be the challenger to Corbyn for the leadership, is defying a letter from her seats Constituency Labour Party calling for her to vote against the no confidence motion and make a public statement supporting Corbyn.
So is Eagles representing her constituency or just seeking for her own glory?
booleanbach
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:11 am
You think UK Labour members (and for that matter ALP members) are mainstream voters?
I have some land in West Fremantle to sell you – uninterrupted ocean views.
K17
William had his doubt when Landlines ruled the roost in polling. Nowadays its a whole new ball game
I forgot to link to the article about the letter, http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/angela-eagle-faces-backlash-grassroots-11537445
CC playing fast and loose with his links again. Quote something, provide a link to something else – we don’t get to see what/who wrote the quoted text, because it certainly wasn’t the CDC.
Jackol
Thanks I missed that.
Guytaur @ 11:21 am
Especially since online polls were much closer to the mark in the EU.
Gosh you’re a tease Lizzie. 🙂
guytaur
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:18 am
Neither Sanders nor Corbyn are Centre left. They are both hard left socialist fruitcakes.
K17
On the ground in Reid Angelo Tsirekos is very well liked. I may be wrong but that personal vote should account for a fair bit. Whether it is enough to overcome the redistribution and sophomore effect, I don’t know. But I am hoping it is. Laundy barely won last time against a really poor labor incumbent (Murphy) so Laundy basically won by default (when there was a BIG pro Abbott swing everywhere).
I don’t think the Libs should be counting Reid as a definite.
Crank
So you say. Its not true. See history. Look at policies. Compare contrast. These guys are centre left not extreme left
K17
Essential seemed to be at odds with the rest (better ALP 2PP) 3 years ago. But they got a new pool after 2013. I like their method and think they are good at gauging real trends (not just week to week variations). Judging its accuracy and weight might just be the hardest thing for bludgertrack to get right this time around.
CompactCrank
“You think UK Labour members (and for that matter ALP members) are mainstream voters?”
This UK Labour member is mainstream, and so is the overwhelming membership of my constituency party.
You’re spouting some Grade-A bootshite this morning
“This is a quote from di Natale (courtesy of the Guardian blog) that I agree with and wish Labor had been more forceful in pushing:”
Yes, just about whatever the coalition has pushed has turned to shit. Unity? You must be friggin’ joking!
I don’t know if it’s the media giving them cover, or partly Labor lethargy, but you are right, the ALP should be hammering this front and centre, but don’t appear to be.
Not only does it dismantle their unity facade, the more the joke of a plebiscite is discussed the better for Labor.
Two hits for the price of one!
The last few days before an election are so damn nerve racking.
Once again i have been logged out :/
CC isn’t that the same parcel of land you have sold three or four times already?
zoidlord
Check if your browser is flushing the cache at certain intervals
Guytaur at 11.16
I think the idea of a bunch of plotters waiting for their moment to pounce and seize control may work in a palace coup, but not in a broad parliamentary party coup. Clearly, disquiet over Corbyn’s leadership and, especially, his handling of Labour politicking re the Brexit referendum has been ongoing for some time. I think there is no question that he was not approved by the MPs he was imposed on by the Party membership, but he had the opportunity to entrench his leadership. It is obvious he failed to do so.
If he did not have the confidence of his own troops, the weakness of the opponents would serve little benefit. Even if it could be capitalised on, he did not have the internal support to entrench any advantage.
As for the party membership, there is no mainstream party in the Westminster system – or indeed in most democracies whose membership reflects the position of the elected representatives. Almost by definition, the membership are those who feel strongly enough about their party to hold more right or left wing views than the representatives. That’s because it is up to the representatives to claim the middle ground of the uncommitted who decide election outcomes.
It is up to the membership to recognise (as most do) that their elected MPs must make concessions to deliver the bulk of what the members want. When the members demand purity from the leadership and the elected representatives, they are essentially going from a chance to pull the levers of power to being hopeful of tugging the sleeves of those who pull the levers of power.
For all the sneering at Blairites (who are basically anyone who is not a left-wing socialist purist) it is those people who make the Labour party electable. Just like it was the Camerons and, dare I say it, the Johnsons, who make the conservatives electable.
Agree with the comment about nerve racking. Its not just my nerves that feel racked but my whole being. We have had an opportunity to be a really fine nation so many times but have passed it up too often.
Australia is headed for a mini-US style society if the LNP keep getting re-elected.
Not a prospect or outcome I would wish for at any time.
simon katich @ #216 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:27 am
No doubt William will adjust his models if Essential turns out to be more accurate come next Monday.
guytaur
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:26 am
Sanders is a self-proclaimed Socialist. Even the ALP no longer is committed to socialism and hasn’t been for decades. He honeymooned in Moscow. He is committed to massive taxes and spending.
Corbyn is even worse than Sanders including being an apologist for anti-semetism if not being an outright anti-Semite himself.
The real issue for a lot of parties to think about is membership and “open membership” votes for political leaders. The US primaries are the best example where all sorts of games can be played with primary voting. Expect the Republicans to change their system drastically after the Trump experiment crashes. Democrats in Australia had a similar problem. British Labour now mired. National ALP likely to have problems with the current leadership process at some stage. Having long drawn out leadership ballots can be destabilising. Membership control over candidate selection is much more important than the leader. MPs do have a somewhat different view of the world because they have to get the electors to vote for them – a chastening experience sometimes. Once the mismatch between leader and other MPs becomes a big issue having a membership ballot is hardly a solution.
ray (uk) @ #217 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:27 am
The Right will make hay of this debacle, losing no sleep in their attacks on Labour and its supporters. Brexit is a serious defeat for Labour and for a modern, high-income, high-employment, resilient economy in the UK.
Ray (UK)
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:27 am
Corbyn wouldn’t have even been nominated if UK Labour members were in any way representative of mainstream voters – let alone mainstream UK Labour Voters.
The fact that conservatives in their droves joined the UK Labour Party in order to try and vote for Corbyn says it all.
booleanbach
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:34 am
That’s the one.
briefly
Brexit was a defeat for Labour because they campaigned with the Tories to Remain. For very good reasons. Remember Murdoch press was propaganda for Leave. The same press that is now attacking Corbyn.
UK Labour MPs obviously completely at odds with their membership, seems like they’d prefer not to have rank-and-file democracy at all. That seems to be the only way this can be resolved: either the MPs shop for a new party or the party will shop for new MPs.
CC:
Yep – it says conservatives are liars and frauds.
Crikey is the only that logs out though…
Media want to sell their properganda end of story.
[Boris:
The Libs would be pleased to see the end of Medicare and bulk billing.]
Every time they get in Fess they work on destroying public health.
Whitlam, gave us bulk billing with Medibank.
Howard/ Fraser got rid of bulk billing and privatised Medibank.
Hawke brought back bulk billing with medicare, rates in the high 80%
Howard drove bulk billing rates down to the low 70% .
Was costing $35 to see a doc each time, with three kids was very very hard.
Kids play sport and have other things that come up, got hit with extra charges on scans and tests over $120 each.
Rudd/ Gillard increased bulk billing to the low 80% again and were driving it higher with their medical centres.
Abbott/ Turnbull driving bulk billing down again, it will be back in the low 70% in no time, the medical centres due to close, the medicare rebate frozen, the libs want minimum co-payments for all services.
All the experts agree that the bulk billing rates are going down under the libs, the doctors and the specialists and the people who are paying $35 a visit to the doctors.
Those ads over delaying seeing a doctor because of the costs under the libs are spot on. When howard was in my brother injured his foot and complained about it for a couple of weeks to my father who delayed taking him to see a doc because of the costs of the doc visit and x-rays and other. Took him in after still complaining and foot was broken.
Labor is spot on saying it should be your Medicare card not your credit card that determines your health care
And you have the libs not touching the 30% rebate rort for private health that gives taxpayer subsidies for face lifts and rejuvenation holidays at 5 star resorts.
Typical of the libs attitude cut money from public health but don’t touch any of the rorts in private health.
colton @ #178 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:02 am
I could not have expressed it any better -:)
CompactCrank
You’re statement was no Labour members were mainstream.
Now it’s not any way representative, I see the subtle distinction.
Tories did not “join Labour in droves”, more rubbish from you
TPOF
Given the media attacks on Corbyn to assist the plotters with plenty of advanced warning making a leaders position untenable is possible in a parliamentary party.
See Labor Rudd GIllard Rudd.
No matter what you think of Rudd his remaining as PM would have been the disaster prredicted? We will never know. What we do know is that he had more legislation passed in his period of PM than Abbott and Turnbull combined.
So with all the damage done I think not having the coup would have been better for Labor and MP’s should just have gritted teeth and earned their pay.
Mike Carlton
14h
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01
And so now SloMo is rolling out the hoary old “welfare bludger crackdown” trick. They do it every election
Political parties can frequently end up with a conflict between their membership and their MPs. The Australian Democrats suffered this heavily and it destroyed them.
There have also been historical attempts at party takeover through concerted membership stacking – where a movement without broad electoral support seeks to shanghai an existing viable party to impose an unpopular agenda.
I think it’s generally accepted that the current ALP and LNP memberships are positioned more strongly to the left and right respectively of their party’s public stances.
I think a modest level of tension between the membership and the parliamentary representation is not a problem, and can be a good thing in shaping the direction of the party. You’d expect some amount of reinforcement between the party’s public stance and the membership – if the stance is attractive it will attract sympathetic members who reinforce the stance.
But it can, clearly, get out of control. If there is some externally imposed idea of what the party should be that is reflected in the membership – and this can originate in many ways from having an ill-defined or ill-understood party purpose (like the ADs) or be a reactionary motivation like being against whatever the Tories stand for – this can lead to a big gulf between the membership and the representatives.
The representatives have to represent a constituency and win votes from the public; the membership don’t inherently have to be concerned with anything other than their own positions, desires, dreams.
I am certainly no expert on UK Labour, but I would say that making the case that the membership should always be the ultimate arbiter of the direction of the party is probably a dangerous road to go down.
The membership and the party organization and the representatives have to work together for the party as a whole to succeed, and that means that the “culture” of the party is spread across these disparate entities and can be hard to identify, define or support, in the end. Sometimes that balancing act is tough to resolve, but if it cannot be resolved the party will fail.
UK Labour may not survive this experience. You would think that other parties will form in any vacuum, but UK politics is just a heaving mess of problems at the moment on all sides.
Allie Coyne @alliecoyne
Lockheed, Defence data centre deal passes billion-dollar mark
Essential;
Underestimated ALP vote in QLD 2015 election by 1.1, and overestimated it in Vic election 2015 by 1.3
Jackol
It will be interesting to see how the Greens vote as a progressive party goes.
Labour members do have an alternative
11m
Jen Dudley-Nicholson @jendudley
The man in charge of the NBN’s copper network quits before the federal election. Just bad timing? (link: http://www.news.com.au/technology/national-broadband-network-chief-architect-quits-the-day-before-federal-election/news-story/ea13256de6a000579bfcee46853b488d) news.com.au/technology/nat… via @newscomauHQ
Man in charge of LNP fraudband quits just before election end.
[And so now SloMo is rolling out the hoary old “welfare bludger crackdown” trick.]
yar, take money from the dole bludgers, the single welfare mothers and the pretend disability rorters.
Got to fund the $50 billion in tax cuts to the cayman islands someway
zoidlord
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:48 am
oooooh nooooo – they’re privatizing Defence!!!!
Boris
That tactic worked for the Tories in the UK. However the Uk has voluntary voting. Australia does not. I don’t think swinging voters are going to buy the crackdown on Welfare line and let the multinational welfare go.