What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.
The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.
The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.
The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.
victoria @ #72 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 9:09 am
GOOD!
He certainly didn’t get my vote anyway.
Plugging in BludgerTracker’s new state swings and adjusting standard deviations accordingly, I now get the following expected seat changes on ALP/Coal contests in the four main states:
NSW: ALP +2.6
Vic: ALP + 0.45
Qld: ALP +5.3
WA: ALP + 1.35
So, keeping the same assumptions about current crossbenchers, Batman & NE/Cowper as before, and again assuming (without any very good reasons) SA to deliver ALP 5, Coal 4, NXT 2, I now expect:
Coal 74/75
ALP 68/69
Grn 1/2
NXT 2
Ind 3/4.
All this assumes a Coal TPP on Saturday night in line with BludgerTracker now.
Out of curiosity, does Labor used Galaxy for internal polling. I thought it was a Lib outfit and Labor used ReachTel. And why would it bother with a poll of only 400?
Jokeshot and Whinger deserve every ounce of scorn they are receiving. They were traitors to their conservative electorates and then the cowards did not stand again to face the music. And now when they sniffed the possibility of 262.784 cents per vote and another dig at the LNP they thought they would have a run. I bet they won’t be donating any of it to charity.
Seeing both of them defeated will be one of the sweetest moments on Saturday night.
For the 2013 election Bludgertrack read (on the Thursday) 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition.
The result was 53.5-46.5, to the Coalition.
Bludgertrack underestimated the Coalition vote by 1%.
Radio count this morning:
PM – 2GB, ABC Bendigo, ABC Bega, Triple M Sydney and will be on 6PR soon.
Shorten – RN Breakfast, 2DayFM
Does this tell us anything?
Shorten in Riverwood, Banks in play?
Bushfire Bill @ 10:37 am
Do you have a link to that BB? I would like to look at the full tables.
Wales Aly on negative gearing – you legend! Labor deserve to win on this issue alone. Why should public money be used to subsidise private investment choices, especially when it distorts the housing market against owner-occupiers in favour of landlords?
This sounds like nonsense to me. When the constitution talks about disqualification (s44):
It’s all prospective – if the person “is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced”. Past conviction for which the sentence has been served is not an issue.
Bill in Riverwood Community Center just now. He must have this stump speech down pat. And he finishes with Save Medicare, big build up to it. Always gets the biggest cheer
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmFDg1SUoAMJwP2?format=jpg&name=large
It’s a long-gone page and the diagrams aren’t there in any readily digestible form (as far as I can see)
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/09/05/bludgertrack-52-5-47-5-to-coalition/#comments
SPROCKET – Massola has written off Labor in Reid, so it MUST be in play.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labor-to-fall-short-of-victory-as-parties-go-negative-on-medicare-and-boats-20160622-gpp6xs.html#ixzz4CL7NJ5DM
compact crank @ #146 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 10:28 am
Neo fascists and their fellow travellers on the populist left deserve a lot worse than mere disdain.
Crank
Your use of the discredited 2?% when there is peer reviewed unconctestable results from Kinsey of 10% says it all.
Remember given the times the Kinsey results are more likely to understate the case than overstate it.
Its like the rest of the haters crap. Lost of justification with no real backing for denying equality to others.
BB [Bludgertrack underestimated the Coalition vote by 1%.]
Or…. bludgertrack was accurate to 1%. Is it reasonable to assume a direction of accuracy?
Bludgertrack got the 2013 seats spot on tho’, didnt it?
briefly
Label people as you like. However the truth is that the MAJORITY voted Leave. If thats all neo fascists the UK is in big danger of being the new nazi regime.
The truth is the majority are not fascists or extreme left.
Re Corbyn: Any British Labour person who is not a committed believer in world revolution (or whatever antiquated notion it is that drives Corbyn) would be bonkers not to support his removal.
The Brexit bomb has already exploded in the Tory party’s face, and there isn’t going to be any way they can get out of having it continue to explode over and over again over a long period: possibly several years.
What Labor needs right now is a leader who is committed to remaining in the EC. Who can run an extremely strong message to the electorate along the lines of “you were lied to about Brexit, BoJo (or whoever ends up in charge of the mess) can’t deliver you what he promised: there can’t be closed borders, there won’t be huge savings of money that is going into the coffers of the EC because there never was such money, Britain has to remain, let’s turn the next election into another referendum on Brexit but this time without the lies”.
It’s the bleeding obvious play for Labour right now. And it’s also bleeding obvious that Corbyn – who I suspect in his heart sees Brexit as the necessary first step in the inevitable collapse of global capitalism – is the last person on earth who would be able to run such a campaign.
After dissing the Liberal Party Dirt Unit earlier, they have outsourced the dirt to Murdoch organs. The last few days are a farrago of lies, half truths, and pro-Coalition, anti-Labor spinning.
So do the people trust or believe anything in Murdoch organs?
Exhibit A in Brisbane
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmFE28gUoAARCjy?format=jpg&name=large
A dodgy 400 poll in Petrie? And unnamed Labor strategists? Black ops, yay!
The new meaning of the term delusional – Jeremy Corbyn.
When 170 of your fellow party members have zero confidence in your leadership, surely it’s time to do the honourable thing and go?
I suspect British Labour is headed for an almighty split……….Corbyn in charge of some socialist band of activists, the moderates joining the Liberal Democrats or forming their own New Labour Party
Simon Katich,
I’m not casting aspersions. I’m just looking at the figures and commenting that there was a 1% variation between prediction and result (and I properly noted that it was 2 days before the election). Don’t get so agitated about it.
EP
I agree its time for Corbyn to go. Its also time for the MP’s who organised the coup to go. They have painted Corbyn into a corner and left him no room to attack the Tory’s.
Those that organised the coup are far less in number than those that have resigned.
As for our election………if Labor can’t even win a very marginal seat like Petrie, they won’t win overall on Saturday.
I’m thinking the best they can hope for is a narrow loss, and a mix of old and new talent entering or reentering parliament.
P.S. And I’m not sure whether William even classes Bludgertrack as a “prediction”, “indicator”, “consensus” or what.
It is what it is. It was what it was. And it will be what it will be.
(How profound).
Lateline last night: No transcript it seems but easy to hear and see via Iview (link below)
Watch Julie Bishop squirm when asked about SSM – move the slider along to 11:32.
At 14:40 Her comments re’ Anne Aly are questioned. More ducking and diving including it’s the ABC’s fault because they asked her a question at a doorstop. Alberici nails her.
http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/lateline/NC1625H107S00
BB
No agitation here bro’. I am as relaxed as a week old lettuce leaf.
SK – I would rather the polling number was accurate.
Jeremy Corbyn may of received the support of the majority of the 270 odd thousand Labour members who voted for him but it should be remembered that that represents less than 3% of the people who actually voted Labour in last years election loss.
He has the support of the far left lunatic SWP (socialist workers party) and professional student protest groups like Momentum who currently represent a decent chunk of the Labour members but he has no support amongst ordinary everyday British voters.
His leadership has been an embarrassing debacle and he has no authority as leader .
He will have no choice but to resign.
He may of course take the path of another far left politician (Sanders) and decide that his ego is far more important than the party and the millions who rely on a Labour govt.
Either way he is done.
His leadership is effectively over and if he had any self respect he would step down asap.
It is also a bit rich for his supporters to call for anyone who does not support the leader to be disendorsed given Corbyns own track record of voting against his own party.
With both Corbyn and Sanders finished it is to be hoped that progressive politics in the US and UK can be reclaimed by the centre left and the far left fringe can return to their role as harping non-achievers with a disproportionately loud voice but no power or real influence.
Greens presser
You may as well say if the Coalition can’t win a safe seat like Indi then they can’t win overall (backdating to September 2013).
The same applies to plenty of other seats, for both sides.
I’m just over agonizing about it. I doubt whether there will be any miracle interventions now, and the situation with plausible independents in several states is confusing (to me, at least). And we haven’t even gotten to the Senate: it’s a DD, under new rules, with a lot of new candidates. Anything could happen.
I’m just letting it all wash over me at present. I’m done speculating.
guytaur
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 10:53 am
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr036.pdf
We’ve all heard this kind of rubbish before. As long as there are workers and a bunch of spivs to exploit them there will be a Labor party.
Simon,
OK, sorry.
Crank
Its all in the questions and is why Kinsey remains the gold standard as much as you like the narrow result.
Thats only counting out loud proud gays not all of them.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 10:41 am
The PM wanted to do more radio interviews this morning than the LOTO.
Guytaur: ” They have painted Corbyn into a corner and left him no room to attack the Tory’s.”
Guytaur, Corbyn doesn’t want to attack the Tories. He certainly didn’t attack them during the Brexit campaign. His agenda is not that of mainstream British Labour. To me, he is an irrelevance from what everyone had thought was a dead and gone era of Communism, Trotskyism, the Militant Tendency and other such nonsense. His concerns are not those of the average British voter.
In the UK the Chilcot (?) enquiry into the Blair Govt. decision to invade Iraq is due out in the next day or two. All this Brexit furore will provide a convenient cover for the MSM to underreport the findings.
guytaur @ #167 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 10:55 am
The voters were duped by UKIP, a neo-fascist organisation, and their patsies among the dopey, populist self-styled “left”.
The vote will produce a permanent relative decline in UK living standards…loss of income, loss of jobs, capital flight, permanently lowered rates of capital formation…and, very likely, the dissolution of the UK itself. It is just insane.
MB
You have bought the Murdoch spin hook line and sinker. I have seen Corbyn deny he ever wanted to vote for Leave as reported.
However the truth is very plain. It was not the role of the LOTO to lead the debate. It was the role of the PM. The organisation of that and the failure of that are not the fault of the LOTO but the PM who failed in the tactics.
Blaming Corbyn is to let the PM who designed the campaign and is responsible for the tactics and all of it is to let the PM who failed off the hook. Convenient timing for the coup plotters with the Chilcott report coming out
Crank talks about 2 per cent and conveniently ignores the fact that how ever many gays there are they usually have family.
In my own small extended family I have two. Without trying very hard I can think if three other people I know who have a gay son or sibling.
These are all people who probably would prefer there was no plebiscite
Colton – Sanders “far left” is complete fantasy. Sanders would fit happily in the Roosevelt New Deal Democrats. Corbyn is certainly left but hardly “far left fringe” historically in the British Labour party. Times have changed and political parties need to adapt – which many find hard. But your analysis lacks any understanding of history.
When you say Corbyn is not following the agenda of mainstream Labour I asume you mean mainstream Labour MPs. He was recently elected by mainstream Labour to be their leader despite the fact that a majority of MPs did not vote for him.
guytaur @ #172 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 10:59 am
Those that ‘organised’ the coup are always far less than those who sign up for it afterwards. That doesn’t mean that the ‘organisers’ have not responded or picked up on widespread disquiet.
A leader always has malcontents in the ranks. It’s the nature of leadership. A good leader leaves them isolated by providing what the vast majority of the ranks want. A poor leader allows the discontent to fester and take over.
Whatever I think of Corbyn – and I don’t have any particular views because I have not followed UK politics that closely – he has demonstrably failed as a leader if 80% of his troops want him gone.
And the argument that the membership put him there only carries limited weight. A general can be put in charge of troops by the government, not by acclamation by the troops. But the troops are who he or she is leading, not the government, and it would be a ridiculously foolish government that persisted with the appointment when the troops are on the verge of mass mutiny.
Corbyn has demonstrably failed. Shooting the coup organisers for giving voice to the views of the troops, when those views are so widespread is nothing more than a sop to the people who think they deserve to save face for their poor decision-making in appointing the person in the first place.
In retrospect the membership and the unions were barmy to appoint Corbyn in the first place. To double down on it is sheer lunacy. And not what the UK or the world needs now.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:02 am
The polling numbers are accurate – they are a reflection of a point in time. Just as Saturday will be.
darn @ #182 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:04 am
Self-evidently, this claim is wrong. Labour has virtually ceased to exist in Scotland, where it first came into existence in the late 19th century.
If English Labour is unable to unify around capable leadership and propose a credible and well-argued alternative to the Tories, it will also disappear.
But I have already cast a nasturtium at bludgertrack as I cant see the recent Essential dot on the graph. Which means it has a significant adjustment for ALP bias or hasnt made it into the graph at all.
Gee, now the PM’s out in Banks as well, after the Massola told us, five days ago that Läbor insiders had “written off” the seat. He wasn’t lying, was he?
K17 – I would rather the polling number was NOT accurate. (in this case)
TPOF
We agree to a degree. What we don’t know is how much disquiet would have gone away over time as the spotlight would have been all on the Tory’s failed campaign without the coup against the leader.
Its just like the policy of the Gillard government was good but the leader coup’s took the spotlight.
Was Corbyn that bad that he was damaging Labour prospects in the future and so was worth a coup over? I very much doubt it. What we have is coup plotters making the situation untenable.
So just as Corbyn has to go so too do the coup plotters. They are denying the platform of the Labour party in favour of austerity neo liberal politics.
Wakefield
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 11:10 am
So now Trotskyists, Marxists and Leninists aren’t far left nutters? Who knew.