BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

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2016-06-29-betting-markets

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 42
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  1. ctar1 @ #93 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 9:23 am

    I laughed at Cameron’s quip in the HoC re’ welcoming a new Labour member for Tooting to the House – WTTE ‘You should keep your phone switched on as you may receive an offer to join the shadow ministry during the afternoon’.

    A great day to start in Parliament, the first day after Brexit, your party is divided and falling apart, the government is looking for a new leader and PM.

  6. William:
    Im having major issues with Crikey lately.

    Sometimes Crikey wont load the site, and have to wait awhile, then I have to relogin every single time, and finally after logging in it goes back to page 1 of this thread Im currently viewing instead of the current page I was at.

    :/ :/

  8. For the past 12 months the health networks have been providing additional funding to services, but from July 1, this assistance will permanently stop, and services will be forced to rely solely on the PIP program.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-29/regional-after-hours-medical-clinics-facing-closure/7551704

    Hi fess

    the closure of these centres and freezing of medicare rebates puts huge pressures on bulk billing which has always declined under the libs.

    we will back back to the howard days of paying an extra $35 plus for doctors visits

  10. Boris

    I have mentioned this previously. My local clinic bulk bills pensioners, health care card holders and children up to 16 years of age. Everyone else had to pay an out of pocket fee currently amounting to approx $35.00. I wonder how much higher this out of pocket fee is going to be in the foreseeable future?

  11. Helen Davidson
    51m
    Helen Davidson‏ @heldavidson
    Majority of Australians say refugees who arrive by boat should be let in, poll finds

  16. A hung Parliament could be the best result for Turnbull himself.
    Any move to dump him for Abbott or another RWNJ could see the crossbench support dissolve and bring down the Government.
    With any other result I think Turnbull is toast and I think would be lucky to see out a year. They only put him in place to get themselves reelected, not for his personal policy beliefs.
    If he achieves this there will be no further need for him.

  18. Boris
    Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 9:38 am
    Bulk billing has increased under the LNP.

    Bulk billing rates for general practitioners have increased by 4 percentage points since Labor was in government, despite a freeze on their rebates in 2013-14 and since July 2015.

    Specialist bulk billing rates have also increased over that time, despite a longer freeze on their rebates.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-27/fact-check-bulk-billing-rates/7437786

  19. jasta07: Car bomb detonated in Perth last night. Don’t panic, it was only regular Aussies who want their country back and no white people were harmed

  21. scoutdog @ #19 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 7:45 am

    Shorten doing ok on RN. very calm not yelling although Fran Kelly is yelling at him.
    Geeez she loves to yell
    Can not believe this election is down to the wire ……budget is worse under the Coalition AND there would be investment in services Health and education, a better economy and services fairly clear choice.
    Just because you say there are doubts does not mean there are doubts – well said Bill, have to say to me he has been impressive through this campaign

    Hyperbole, much!
    If you think she was yelling, you had the volume turned too high.

    She certainly challenged Shorten which, to any worthwhile politician, presents an excellent opportunity to deal with the negatives being put out by your opponents.

    Shorten performed superbly and hit most of Fran’s balls over the fence.

  22. If the Lie-brals are re elected the IPA will force them mess with Medicare. However small the change the current medicare campaign can be used in the next election to remind the voters that the Lie-brals promise of hands off should never have been trusted.

    A good long term strategy.

  27. corporate_misfit
    Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 9:56 am
    The IPA? Of FFS! The IPA has very little sway within the Parliamentary LNP. This is evidenced by so very few of it’s preferred policy prescriptions being put in place – in particular the retention of s18c of the RDA.

  28. JanGulli12: @bigemlilorgan @vanbadham @MaritimeUnionAU @CFMEUJohnSetka yep I was charged for the first time ever $50 for a Pap smear in a public clinic

  30. The CFMEU, AWU and MUA have more direct control and policy control over the ALP through preselections and donations that than the IPA does over the LNP.

  33. Most people don’t even know what Medicare funds let alone how the health funding is arranged between the States and the Federal Government.
    Most people think that medicines are subsidized under Medicare when it is actually the Pharmaceuticals Benefit Scheme that funds them.

  34. Swamprat @ 9:58 am
    I’ve posted this link before, it’s an interesting idea. There were far more bets on ‘leave’ than on ‘remain’. The theory is that a class distinction was reflected in the size of the bets.
    Bookies odds
    Apologies if I break the internet again!

  35. joshgnosis: Australian Marriage Equality reckons there are 40 known LGBTI candidates running this election. Out of 1,626 candidates overall.

  36. STEELE – I’ve got a theory that if you bed on Labor at EVERY election you would probably end up ahead because the sentiment of those with the most money will always favour the libs. Dunno if anyone has tried to analyse that.

  37. victoria @ #61 Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 8:59 am

    ABC Current Affairs
    1h1 hour ago
    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm
    “Brexit shows what happens when you have the conservative side of politics divided.” – @AlboMP

    It certainly shows what happens when the neo-facsist, right populists are supported by the populists of the paleo-left in a context of Tory decadence.

  39. CC

    swamprat
    Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 9:58 am
    So, you’re putting the house on the ALP?

    The link posted relates to betting on Brexit ie nothing to do with the ALP.

  40. Hello again everybody.
    Well this is disappointing, after the crushing disappointment of Brexit night I grabbed a few hours sleep then decamped immediately to the coast for a weekend break (can’t beat a bit of Skeggy). I looked at no media or news whatsoever. Just catching up on everything and UK politics is in meltdown and I see over there things appear to be swinging back to the govt.
    p.s. While I was on a media blackout over the weekend, I was subjected to the braying chavs lording it up in the pubs in Skegness (Lincolnshire is a very strong UKIP area). I could do nothing but puff ever more furiously on the pipe and drown my sorrows with bitter beer.

  42. guytaur
    Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 9:57 am

    Do you find it strange that the Conservative side of politics would wish to highlight the hypocrisy of Shorten?

  45. Fantastic article on Rob Oakeshotte’s tactics.

    [

    “I’m not being a princess,” Oakeshott said. “By standing, I am staring it down. By standing, I am inviting people to have this conversation about media in Australia today, and to drill in on who exactly is paying the piper.

    “While I don’t waste too much energy on it, people would be right to ask the obvious question – what is it in [Australian editor] Paul Whittaker or Ray Hadley’s head that they are so blindly obsessed with someone they have never met.

    “For me, I can only conclude someone is paying their bills and it’s up to them to build a case against. It is up to them to explain why they are so hard on independents for anything other than the profit motive.”

    The Australian’s editor Paul Whittaker was contacted for comment.

    ]

  46. briefly
    Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 10:16 am
    And your use pseudo-intellectual hokey-pokey terminology is just another piece of evidence as to why the Remain vote was defeated by traditional working class UK Labour voters.

    You guys just won’t learn – treating these people with contempt and disdain is exactly the sort of bollocks that has caused Brexit. Now that the vote has happened and Remain has lost, the masks have been taken off and the scorn is pouring out.

  48. Page 3 of the Gawler weekly paper “the Bunyip” today.
    “Gawler’s last remaining bulk-billing medical service will be cut this weekend, when the Liberal Government changes its funding policy for after-hours services in 2016/17.”
    GP Corp managing director Lyn Gill (who has links to Liberal Party) said –
    “the Government’s Medicare funding debacle would ‘absolutely’ sway her voting preferences at this weekend’s election.” http://www.bunyippress.com.au/bulk-billing-services-cut/

  50. victoria
    Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 8:18 am

    7 News Sydney
    7 News Sydney – Verified account ‏@7NewsSydney

    Labor releases internal polling showing swing to Coalition in some seats @Riley7News #ausvotes http://snpy.tv/298QE1C
    —-
    IN ONE WORD, BOLLOCKS.

    Essentially, Reily is saying Labor won’t win any seats in QLD and Labor ‘released its internal polling’ in a desperate attempt to save two seats under threat, Griffith and Moreton, using the ‘underdog card’. Bollocks, Bollocks, Bollocks .
    No party is going to “release internal polling” , especially during an election campaign -especially if it negative. If nothing else, it would deflate campaign supporters like you and I and stifle any momentum or confidence in the brand.

    Just like it has done here on PB when other media stories claiming negative “internal polling” from anonymous “Labor sources” have been published, this is nothing more than anti-labor or anti- Coalition propaganda. The intention of this bollocks “internal polling” crap is to intended to burst your enemies balloon and/or to ‘save the furniture’ when your own internal polling is tripping over baseball bats aimed at your brand across the board or in particular States.

    I’m calling it for what it is, bulldust.

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