ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
“Would X really get into bed with the RWNJs.”
..short answer is no. Xenophon is seen as almost anti-politician & would be committing political suicide if he aligned himself to either side ..much of his appeal is his populist independence from the majors..
question
where is heavy lifting on anything? time is running out
[Election analyst William Bowe said the reduced prospects of success had not deterred candidates from running in WA.
“Perhaps they haven’t yet adapted to the reality that the new system isn’t favourable to them as they are used to,” Mr Bowe said.
“I guess micro parties want to test the waters, they are not willing to just throw away all the work they have done in getting prepared for the election.
“No one really knows how the new environment is going to play out or the extent to which micro parties are going to be disadvantaged.”
WA’s 2016 Senate ballot paper has a very different look to that of the special 2014 election.
Of the 33 groups or parties which contested the 2014 election, only 16 are running this time.
Among the parties running in WA in 2016 but not seen in 2014 are some high-profile names, such as the Nick Xenophon Team, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Fred Nile’s Christian Democratic Party.
There are also several new micro parties such as Mature Australia, The Arts Party, the Australian Cyclists Party and the Health Australia Party.
]
Perhaps they are real parties after all, perhaps real people with passion and views. Who would have thought they wouldn’t crawl back into their holes and leave it to the ‘proper’ parties.
lizzie @ #348 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 11:53 am
People like me will try to waste their time and they know it.
On the ALP phone bank, my shortest conversations are with died in the wool Libs and staunch Labor supporters. The first group are unpersuadeable and the second don’t need it.
1934pc
Spot on. Q&A, with all it’s faults, is the most watched political program by a long, long way. Last Monday night it was watched by an estimated audience of nearly 700 thousand people in the five metro capitals, so not including major regional cities or the bush. So probably nearing 1 million people all up. A strong performance from Shorten to such an audience would be a huge launching pad for the home stretch of this campaign, and in the exact type of setting where Shorten is at his strongest. I understand that some are flat from the Reachtel numbers, but this election is still up for grabs.
lizzie @ #348 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 11:53 am
………………………………………………………………….
Lizzie – They need a nasty loss to try to wake them up, but alas I doubt that will work either.
The RWNJ’s will probably keep their seats and the tories basically are a branch of the IPA anyway – who deliver so called policy for them to implement in Government.
Good one, Bill.
.
LIZZIE – What Oakey is saying is just a motherhood statement: of course Turnbull would get the first shot at forming a government.
i hope labor win and expect that they will
but have always felt shorten is a clayton’s leader – not a patch on the two he(manipulatively) replaced
never understood why he wants to be leader, or thinks he is (best) suited
jenauthor @ #350 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 11:56 am
Now on my timeline.
K17
Yes, motherhood according to the rules, but I think he’s protecting himself against being seen as backing progressives. He could have said nothing.
victoria –
rummel is clearly a much more invested and informed source, and I would read his contributions very carefully and genuinely try to understand where he is coming from.
I’m not a volunteer and I’m not in Victoria, but I have been appalled by the process and the politics of what has gone on. I posted quite a few detailed posts on this yesterday, which I doubt Pollbludger wants to see again. If you want to know the details of what I think go read those.
That statement from Andrews that you linked to is a rehash of the statement you linked to from the fresh emergency services minister from yesterday, and I have the same problems with it.
If the Fiskville stuff is a strong element of why the board was sacked then what would have happened if the board had rolled over to the ultimatum and signed the EBA yesterday? Would they have kept their jobs? Even though, apparently, they were derelict in their duty and the government wasn’t satisfied they could do their jobs?
That still doesn’t wash with me – if the board needed to be sacked because of Fiskville, why did it come to a head over the EBA? The obvious answer is that they are unrelated and the premier and minister are now looking to tar the CFA to make their own poor behaviour look better.
And, again, “some anonymous people complained about something, so we felt the need to act”. This isn’t justification for anything.
It’s a sensitive issue – volunteers need to be treated differently to other interest groups, and the government’s actions risk meddling with the heart of that system, and if that demoralizes the volunteers and risks membership, enthusiasm – and I think this is a very real risk – then the government is doing a bad bad thing for no real purpose.
Anyway, I’ve said enough. If the ALP think they can skate past this I think they will find themselves badly mistaken.
Haydn
Bludgertrack now has Labor winning five seats in Queensland. Petrie and Capricornia would be the two most obvious but what about the three. Can we dare hope that Dickson might be one them.
—–
The most obvious seats to watch in Qld are seats where PUP had a significant impact in 2013 and then ask who PUP stripped those votes from as a starting point.
Forde [4.3 2PP] for example. Here PUP (12.5) had a significant influence in this seat, taking nothing from the Liberals first preferences (42.5), 3.4 from Labor (34.0) and 8.0 from the Greens (4.1) in 2013. Green and Labor vote recovery will give Labor a much better 2PP outcome but will it be enough ?
In contrast, in Leichardt [5.7 2P], PUP (8.5) took roughly 2.0 from the FIBS (45.2), the ALP (32.5) and the Greens (6.5) in 2013 first preferences. Warren Ensche is expected to retain this Cairns based seat with a smaller 2PP lead.
In Brisbane [4.3 2PP], PUP (4.1) first preferences had no impact on Liberal (48.0) or Labor (30.1) first preferences in 2013. Most of the PUP damage was to the Green (14.3) candidate dropping 6.9 first preferences. Theresa Gambaro is retiring to let 2 gays guys fight for this seat. Green vote recovery and their support of gay issues will make this seat a dog fight that Labor might win.
Herbert is another I am told to watch but Labor dropped 10 points in first preferences last time cf the Fibs 2.3 as Palmer (8.8) and Katter (8.0) took 16.8 % of Herbert’s first preferences. Bridge too far.
Unfortunately in Dickson [6.7 2PP], PUP (9.9) and Katter took under 1.0 from Dutton (48.0), 4.4 from the Greens (6.4) and 2.1 from Labor (31.3). This starting point is not encouraging for Labor with Dutton almost claiming the seat on first preferences alone despite Palmers influence.
So yeah Petrie ,Capricornia, Forde, Brisbane and my sleeper Longman would be my five.
Jackol
This matter has been in dispute for well over three years. The issues the CFA had with the EBA were dealt with, but the board still refused to agree. You gotta ask why?
Jackol
me thinks that you dont have the whole picture and nor does Rummel
MARKJS – But if X doesn’t make a contribution in the HOR his members will be swept away at the next election. Big dilemma for X. Maybe his best option is to side with Labor.
victoria –
I do ask why. Why would the CFA and CFA board die in a ditch (after all the board have been sacked, as threatened) over this? Are you really suggesting that their sole aim was to politically damage the Victorian ALP? I don’t believe this, and I think you are being blindly partisan in your views on this.
I think there are clearly concerns over the EBA’s effects on volunteers working with the CFA. These concerns may be unfounded, but if so that is a communication problem and it is the government’s responsibility to ensure that all concerns are met – and particularly if they are unfounded the fears should be able to be allayed. If that meant changing the EBA to explicitly reassure the CFA volunteers, then they should have done that – if it didn’t mean any substantive change to the EBA (because the UFU claim that it simply doesn’t effect volunteers) then it shouldn’t be a problem, right?
With the government going through with their sacking despite the court injunction and scheduled hearing on matters directly related to the sacking it’s clear the government simply decided to force this through to get the unpleasant over with as soon as possible.
That’s not the actions of a government that is sure it is doing the right thing.
Just the political fight I think Andrews wanted. Not to sure about Shorten, though. The volunteers are going apocalyptic whilst the paid staff (1 in 60 in the CFA) are sitting rather quiet and plum. Must be nice watching everyone else getting screwed over and sacked who are oppose your extream EBA agreement.
“Labor is to be condemned for proceeding with its plan to hand over control of the CFA to the United Firefighters Union.
Daniel Andrews with the backing of Bill Shorten now stands ready to sack the CFA board to appease the UFU.
The Liberals stand shoulder to shoulder with the 60,000 CFA volunteers on whom Victorians rely to keep them safe.
That’s why a re-elected Turnbull Government will amend the Fair Work Act so that the Act can no longer be misused to undermine volunteer emergency services bodies.”
http://sarahhenderson.com.au/2016/06/10/i-stand-with-the-cfa/
Senator James McGrath is a disgrace. I’m not surprised he made a comment like this. Remember this guy organized the Labor dirt files against QLD Labor so you know what kind of filth he is.
“A CLASH between Liberal staffers and protesters at a Sunshine Coast fair turned personal this morning when insults were hurled at a Greens supporter heckling the Prime Minister.
Liberal Senator James McGrath was accompanying Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull on a walk through the Nambour Show when a woman dressed in Greens garb began questioning the PM about withdrawn funding for the local hospital.
In a statement echoing Paul Keating’s “go and get a job” line, Mr McGrath said to the woman: “who pays your dole?”
“I’m not on the dole mate,” the woman responded.
“What sort of ridiculous question is that? How do you know where I’m from, how rude are you.”
The confrontation continued with Sally Cray, Mr Turnbull’s private secretary, further challenging the woman, saying “how are you going to pay for it?”, in reference to the hospital funding.”
http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/2016-federal-election-rolling-coverage-of-the-campaign-day-34/news-story/3e31bc8ce7ff04d6a240145a669bcef6
victoria @ #365 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Sorry, can’t help myself.
‘methinks’ is one word. Seems to be a favourite of yours. 😉
I agree with you on the CFA. This is but the culmination of a long series of issues.
It’s all over, if you believe Paul Kelly and the Oz.
But hold on a sec! The Libs could be just about be wiped out in SA if we extrapolate from ReachPOLL.
That would be joy. Except that the ALP will probably spoil the fun by negotiating a deal with the Libs to protect the Coles and Woolworths parties. Ugh!
[
Victoria
Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Jackol
me thinks that you dont have the whole picture and nor does Rummel]
Whatever Victoria. You are never going to see anything out side of those Labor goggles anyway.
If two (2) Labor Emergency Service Members quitting in the last year is not enough to change your thinking, nothing will. That’s fine, you’re entitled to support Labor and unions above all else.
rummel @ #368 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:22 pm
So a Lib politician in grave danger of losing her seat tries to make political capital over the CFA issue?
Well fancy that! 😆
And they will do well if real voters cast real votes for them. The new system makes this process easier.
nicholas @ #374 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:30 pm
And again I agree 100%! This is getting scary. 😉
Seems to me that Andrews wants to get some professionalism into the ranks of the Colonel Blimps and Rugged Aussie Bushie-type volunteer CFA.
The Colonel blimps are blustering, huffing and puffing, most likely because they did such a lacklustre job in the big fires a few years ago.
Volunteers are important, but they need a core of professionals – people who fight fires or train to fight them every day of the week – to make sure that standards are kept up.
Bushfires are only going to get bigger and fiercer in the coming years. Knockabout, grizzled volunteers will have their place, but the whole thing needs to be up-skilled and properly managed. The “romantic” days of “rugged individualism” are over. We have a catastrophe looming. Best to let the professionals run it.
Andrews is the person who has to cop the flack for any poor response to the next disaster. He has the right and the authority to decide how the CFA will be organized to meet that disaster. He is the Premier after all. He has FWA agreeing with him, formally and properly, after a fair hearing. I don’t know why this is so controversial.
[Markjs
Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 11:17 am
..more evidence we’re close to the end of coal:
“India cancels four major new coal plants in move to end imports”
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/india-cancels-four-major-new-coal-plants-in-move-to-end-imports-27494%5D
This is just one example of how the Australian economy and the people of Australia are affected in a major way by overseas developments. All of Turnbull’s rhetoric about “innovation” and “exciting time to be alive” is just so much hot air, insofar as he has little real power to accelerate “jobs and growth”. The major factors affecting Jobsen Groeth are external, from India and China buying our coal, through to what Apple, Alibaba (China) and Facebook do to our communications, trade and commerce.
The responsibility of an Australian government is to ensure that everyone in Australia has at least the chance to benefit from the opportunities offered from overseas and generated locally. This means a proper broadband network, proper physical infrastructure, proper access to health and education, and a safety net to ensure that nobody need go without the essentials.
What we have at present is talk about innovation while the drivers of innovation are being stifled, talk about infrastructure when effective infrastructure is being neglected, talk about health and education when people’s access to these services is being constrained, and consolidation of power in the hands of those who abuse that power for their own selfish interests.
The gulf between the propaganda and the reality has probably never been greater than at present. Making people fearful over largely imaginary threats to our way of life is no way to run a country.
p.16, http://e1.newcastle.edu.au/coffee/pubs/wp/2013/13-02.pdf
Bemused
🙂 agree. Who would have guessed that. I was hoping the Libs would stay out of it and Andrews would see the light, but no. Andrews has tossed a nuke into volunteer troops to back the union who have him by the short and curly’s and naturally the Fed Libs are going to milk this like a cow in Victoria. In fact, between the Innercity Green push and the CFA urban interface anger, Shorten is another casualty of Dan Andrews.
Rummel
That gave me a good chuckle. The funniest thing of all where Sarah Henderson is concerned, is that she needs a very big reminder that she is a Federal MP for Corangamite. But almost everything and anything she talks about and whinges about relates to state Victoria issues. where is her concern and focus on what her own federal colleagues are proposing or doing?
She is not fit to be a fed MP. She needs to resign
BB
Bingo!!
Premier Andrews so far has impressed me
“It’s all over, if you believe Paul Kelly and the Oz.
But hold on a sec! The Libs could be just about be wiped out in SA if we extrapolate from ReachPOLL.
That would be joy. Except that the ALP will probably spoil the fun by negotiating a deal with the Libs to protect the Coles and Woolworths parties. Ugh!”
I’m going to call this out for what is. Greens on here are getting upset that Labor has leverage to save seats in inner Melbourne and that is why they are getting upset with Xenephon possibility being dealt out the game in SA.
Xenophon is no freind on Labor or the Greens. So please Greens stop with the fake indignation that you want to see the Liberals gone in SA. The real motivation behind this angst is that Labor has a bargaining chip to save seats that the Greens want to take off Labor through Liberal preferences.
Bushfire
I am a little concerned about your driving!!!
Do you often nearly run over couples or is it just Maxine and Bob Hogg.
Rummel
The best leader in the country at present is none other than Dan Andrews.
Continuing on the CFA debacle, I read the following in an article posted last night:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/victoria/cfa-crisis-statement-by-emergency-services-minister-james-merlino-20160610-gpgrux.html
I must be missing something, as I thought there’s an injunction preventing the CFA from approving any agreement? Surely it’s not legal to dismiss the board for complying with a court injunction? And surely any new CFA board that gets appointed would be bound by the same injunction anyways? And wouldn’t dismissing the board land the state government in contempt of court?
BB,
You are wrong on all accounts. But eh, shit on the volunteers all you like, just like Victoria Labor. Just consider this little fact. The state government only pays for 1 in 60 CFA firefighters. What hospital beds are you going to close down to pay for more paid members? What school should lose 7 teachers to stick into a Fire station that only gets a call every two weeks or so.
BB – please let us know on this blog if you intend driving around the Chatswood-Willoughby area so I can stay safely indoors.
BB –
Ok, it wasn’t FWA agreeing, it was a FWA commissioner acting as an invited adjudicator as I understand it, which is a little different (and why the Libs talking about legislating to stop FWA getting involved is just stupid nonsense). But more importantly the court injunction and case is specifically about whether the hearings were fair. The suggestion is that the volunteers were denied any representation in these hearings, and that therefore the volunteer concerns were not adequately expressed or addressed as part of the deliberation.
Maybe that’s nonsense – I assume the CFA should have been adequately representing the volunteer concerns as part of their involvement in the adjudication – but that’s what the court is going to assess, and any government seeking to look like they’re allowing due process to play out would have held off on making any big decisions until that outcome was resolved.
But the government, UFU (and zoomster!) have assured us that the EBA has no effect on volunteers.
If the government (based on what the UFU wants) is forcing change on the CFA and CFA volunteers, which is what the volunteers are up in arms about – and I believe they are forcing change – then the government need/needed to make the case for what change was occurring and why it needed to occur. That they have fudged the explanations and hidden behind process tells me that they can’t/don’t want to make the actual case for change, they just want to push it through and make it all go away as quickly as possible.
You do that when you know you’re doing the wrong thing.
[Victoria
Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:38 pm
Rummel
The best leader in the country at present is none other than Dan Andrews.]
He is not very nice on the females… Seems to be sacking quite a few females and replacing the glass ceiling behind them. Back in your hay day, you would be yelling ‘misogynist’ from the rooftops.
bushfire bill @ #376 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:32 pm
I don’t think the problem is with the volunteers, more with the leadership and bureaucracy.
I recall major communication problems on ‘Black Saturday’, one particular issue being the failure of incident control to hand over from one centre to another as a bushfire moved.
nicholas @ #378 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 12:33 pm
Something Mr Barber should take note of.
David, I am not a Green. Also, I recognize that X is a passing figure at the peak of his popularity.
We have the chance to bump off C. Pyne, the man behind the Liberal Party in SA. Labor cannot afford to blow this opportunity.
PS: The Greens are going nowhere in SA.
Rumme
Surely you jest. Andrews is the most progressive leader in country. You can stick to your bambi Baird in NSW, who frankly has turned out to be a complete fraud
No victoria.
Female Emergency Service Minister, gone replaced by a man all because she was sticking up for 60,000 volunteers. Noting that Volunteers Fire Services have around 15% females in the service. Whilst only 3% of paid firefighter are female….
Also sacking the Female CFA CEO, no doubt to be replaced by another man. The gender imbalance is nowhere more start than in the Paid Fire Services and you man Andrews just gave the keys to the biggest boys club in Australia.
Well played.
[And they will do well if real voters cast real votes for them. The new system makes this process easier.]
No as Mr Bowe points out in the quote the ABC has from him, it makes it harder for them, and deliberately so.
Rummel
It is the CFA Board that has not looked after its boys club. Remember that
Citizen – “Another reason for a royal commission into the finance industry.”
It is important to understand that (with the honorable exception of John Hewson) the modern Liberal party is not a party that favours free market solutions for the public good, but instead their whole purpose is to deploy public assets and finances for the private benefit of their “base”.
Thus they are not a party of low taxes: despite my mate Crank’s innumerable (and innumerate) protestations to the contrary it is quite possible for a genuinely low tax party to ensure that taxes remain low. Instead they are a high tax party that objects only to the spending of Commonwealth money on the less well off: Shorten is right when he tells Australians in relation to Turnbull: “he’s spending the money, he’s just not spending it on you”.
And so it is with the SMSF arrangements (and the September 2007 changes). Howard and Costello transformed a system established for the payment of pensions and the promotion of institutional investment in Australian equities into a tax preferenced get-rich-quick scheme that operates mainly for the benefit of property spruikers, financial advisors and other members of the United Confederation of Spivs and Wankers (UCSW) that form the “base” of the Liberal party, and to the detriment of everyone else, who must pay inflated prices for housing and will now have to cover the pensions of the SMSF holders who have been mulcted by the UCSW.
Rummell sticking up for females?
That’s the best joke I’ve heard in years.
Toorak
I think SH-Y is.
[Rummell sticking up for females?
That’s the best joke I’ve heard in years.
]
You could mine the irony and export it to China.