ReachTEL: 50-50

Movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary vote from ReachTEL, but their enthusiasm will be tempered by an alarming result from the South Australian seat of Grey, where Rowan Ramsey is under the pump from the Nick Xenophon Team.

ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.

Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.

Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.

bludgertrack-2016-06-10

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

Comments Page 9 of 17
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  2. Desperate Liberal supporters have found something to transfer all their anger over the state of their party and the election.
    None of them are offering positive ideas to solve the problem or suggesting what Andrews should have done, its all wavering finger pointing.
    It is working well for them, it wont help volunteer fire fighters at all, but they will forget about them after the election.

  3. Meanwhile

    Sky News Australia
    30m30 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING Sky News understand NT Sports Minister Nathan Barrett forced to resign after sex scandal.

  5. No as Mr Bowe points out in the quote the ABC has from him, it makes it harder for them, and deliberately so.

    You are verballing William Bowe. It will be harder for parties with no real support in the community and who are just trying their luck. It will be easier for real parties with a real base of support in the community. It will be easier for voters to give those parties a preference.

  6. Anyone who is surprised the forces of conservatism will throw everything at Labor in the next three weeks should not be at all surprised….this is the usual tactic when things get tight…..for them. I hark back to some elections when otherwise sober, sensible and thoughtful people actually believe that under Labor the stock market will collapse, property will be worth nothing, there will be a run on the banks, Oz will become a Socialist/Communist (take your pick of “ist”) state and the sky will fall in just as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse thunder over the horizon. It always puzzles me when (a) the conservatives pull this junk out time and time again and (b) their supporters actually think there is some truth in it. Menzies used the device for years and as a result we had 23 years was it? of LNP government. Interestingly when the LNP were defeated by Gough, they had only just scraped in in 1969 – a bit like now – but eventually collapsed due to their own ineptitude. However, come to think of it, it is only just over 40% of the voting public which goes along with this guff so there is hope in the remaining 60% of the electorate who do not buy a bar of it. Never give up in a two horse race. Labor probably will not win, but if one is think back just two years ago, who would have thought 50:50 at this point? There were so many gurus who predicted the demise of Shorten (actually calling for his head) and optimistic talk of 2, 3 …..more LNP regimes into the misty future. All the more credit to Labor and his team. None of it looks so rosy for the LNP now, and even holding government – with the likely outcome of another hostile Senate – will tax them and us to the max.

  7. My broadband is intermittently dropping in and out – just like it did before the recent 6 day outage.
    The Telstra service status page has nothing to say and the 132200 number tells me to wait a very long time or ring back again on the next business day. How very helpful!

  8. This has just gone up on the. Telstra service status page –
    Some Broadband Cable customers may experience difficulties accessing the internet.

    It says it will continue until 6pm on Tuesday.
    FFS!

  9. Vic – just loved that clip! Good luck to the lady in green sticking her ground while Young Liberal types shielded their boss from actually responding to her. I noted the cameras immediately fell on her which the well-manicured lot from the LNP mafia will hate. Now, if this was FPJG this little clip would be played ad nauseum on the news bulletins for days . Wonder if this even makes it to any news item?

  10. @denniallen been waiting 4 this. the Libs stacked the board with their foot soldiers & mobilised their members in the CFA 2 create a myth

  13. Especially at a DD it will be easier for a micro with a genuine support base of say 3% to get elected.

    Under the old system the real lottery types banded together to try and get enough prefs flowing between themselves to hopefully get one of em infront of these larger parties and so grab their prefs to get elected. (exhibit 1 – Muir).

    In a DD and because OPV means the last spots go to less than a full quota significant micros have a very very good chance of jagging a spot, but the 2 men and a dog parties aren’t any hope.

    In a normal half senate election it will be harder and someone will need to collect about 7% to get into the race for the last spot, but that just might see real parties formed from the amalgamation of micros in order to compete rather than the fronts that have been previously set up to buy a ticket in the lottery. High profile Independents will also have a fair shot at a Senate spot if they have statewide profile and can get themselves a group ticket. Tasmania especially will probably return a micro/indie at most elections, SA will have an X (or two) until he blows himself up, and you’ll probably see 1 or 2 more from the other states most elections. To my mind the most likely result will be a permanent cross bench of 6-8 on the sort of voting patterns we see today. In other words the amount of micros won’t change much, just the composition (to those with more actual support against the lottery winners).

  14. bk @ #408 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    This has just gone up on the. Telstra service status page –
    Some Broadband Cable customers may experience difficulties accessing the internet.
    It says it will continue until 6pm on Tuesday.
    FFS!

    Telstra may be following the script of “Tomorrow When the War Began”. Or, perhaps, conditioning us for a Coalition elections victory.

  15. Vic
    Driving through the township this morning I noticed a Briggs poster saying simply “BRIGGS DELIVERS”.
    I have a temptation to add the word “NOTHING” to it!

  17. Mark Di Stefano
    1h1 hour ago
    Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef
    Here’s senator @JamesMcGrathLNP asking a Greens heckler repeatedly “who pays for your dole?” https://www.facebook.com/fergus.hunter/videos/964461350337133/ …
    Embedded image

    The complete lack of self awareness of some spoilt little rich kid IPA fluffer who has never had a real job in his life accusing someone else of being a bludger is both hilarious and utterly unsurprising.

  18. Ratsak

    And the fact that these MPs and staffers are the ones sucking the most from the public teat is obviously lost on them too

  19. Paul Kelly just another Liberal hack at the Oz.How can these people have any cred when they still supported a nutter like Abbott right to the end.They would be Trump supporters too if he was in charge of the Libs here.

  21. BK Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 1:25 pm
    My broadband is intermittently dropping in and out – just like it did before the recent 6 day outage.
    The Telstra service status page has nothing to say and the 132200 number tells me to wait a very long time or ring back again on the next business day. How very helpful!
    *********************************************************

    ‘No f**king internet, yet again’

    More Telstra outages reported around Australia

    ACCORDING to some fairly irate Twitter users, Telstra is currently experiencing network outages around the country.

    Various reports have indicated that the service is down in areas of Victoria, Western Australia and NSW.

    A graph on aussieoutages.com shows how the reports of outages have spiked in the past few hours.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/online/more-telstra-outages-reported-around-australia/news-story/794b2bc9e8316217031a6cc53593a2a7?from=google_rss&google_editors_picks=true

  24. Trog

    A Briggs poster I saw had the question “In Hong Kong?” added helpfully underneath BRIGGS DELIVERS.

    There is a long history of electoral humour in Mayo: in 1998 (I think it was), there were Liberal Party signs saying “Downer for Mayo”. Some of these had been annotated with “How Apt”.

  29. victoria – Liberals lying? That’s not news.

    My opinions have been formed without paying any attention to what the Liberal party is saying – in fact I deliberately had to ignore the fact that I naturally want to react against the Liberal line.

    My observations of what has been reported of the Andrews’ government behaviour leads me to think the government has made some bad choices in this sensitive area, and are doubling down on the stupid. That has nothing to do with what the Libs might be trying to do.

  31. ctar1 @ #410 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 1:34 pm

    @denniallen been waiting 4 this. the Libs stacked the board with their foot soldiers & mobilised their members in the CFA 2 create a myth

    Rummel,
    Will you acknowledge now that this has been a set-up by the Liberals to bring the stratospheric popularity of Labor in Victoria back to earth? It’s how they roll. The Liberal Party are unable to win legitimately based upon their policies of increasing inequality, so they resort to besmirching their opponents instead.

    The should be ashamed of themselves, but they are shameless and so it is impossible.

  34. BK I am on the coast of Central Qld and Mr Telstras’ internet has been dropping out here this morning also. Fingers crossed it appears to be running smoothly (if not abysmally slow with a lot of buffering) again.
    Before the major telstra outages the other week I used to have the ABC News24 streaming on my screen as I work. I had done so for years. Never had a problem. Since the outages I have buffering problems – lose the link – jumps the coverage – have to refresh or restart the page. It has become impossible to watch any streaming although my download has remained around the 5mps mark. And that worked fine before all of this crapola started. Not a happy camper I can asure you.

  39. Bw

    Briggs Delivers Tongue?

    Whatever he ‘delivers’ it seems that his electorate don’t want it.

    One ‘down’, I’d say.

  43. {Rummel and Jackol should open their eyes to the lies…….you have to ask why are senior Liberals engaged in this behaviour?}

    lol and Labor Ministers are folding like cards.

  44. Taylormade

    ‘Nothing wrong with that description at all. To capitulate so easily to the union will haunt him for ever.’

    Oh, bollocks. If Andrews was capitulating the union, he would have done so in the first few months after the election, not drag it out til now.

    He tried negotiation with the CFA, that proved to be impossible, and so he’s gone with the umpire’s decision.

    The CFA is still there, will continue to be funded, and continue to operate. It’ll have a different board, that’s all.

  47. C@Tmomma

    I have been saying that I hope the Libs stay out of it. You guys can go all partisan hacks now, but, at least that is in it’s self an admission that this issue has legs and Andrews screwed the volunteer pooch. Labor Victoria, not the party of Volunteering. Nice victory Labor have won.

  49. Again Victoria, play the party hack all you like.

    I have stated that just yesterday that Campbell Newman also screwed the Volos in QLD and Labor has screwed over 60,000 volos in Victoria whilst riding rough shot over the Supreme Court, removing Female Ministers and CEO to get what they want.

    Spin, Spin, Spin. Labor Victoria are against volunteers.

  50. rummel @ #443 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 2:36 pm

    {Rummel and Jackol should open their eyes to the lies…….you have to ask why are senior Liberals engaged in this behaviour?}
    lol and Labor Ministers are folding like cards.

    So, basically you choose to support devious political bullies using this issue in a federal election as another one of the Liberals’ ‘Black Ops, Yay!’ campaigns?

    Whether Labor Ministers ‘are folding like cards’ is irrelevant, save for exemplifying the callous way you view Labor politicians after you scratch the surface of your professed support.

    I would say, in fact, that Jane Garrett has been played by the CFA Board and the Liberal operatives. I would have thought she could have been awake to the possibility.

    All it does prove though is that Labor should never ever ascribe noble motives to anyone taking them on in an election.

    And please don’t come the raw prawn with me about your superior knowledge of the ‘Volos’, I am one too, remember.

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