ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
Isnt it always funny after the event the truth begins to drift out later.Proves that initial reactions are not always right.
C@Tmomma,
For crying out loud, you guys have turned nuts today, nuts!.
Enjoy the Andrews Government fallout.
Rummel,
Spin, Spin, Spin. Labor Victoria are against volunteers.
No it’s not. It’s about reordering a system which is inadequate for the 21st century and recent urban expansion so that the Volunteers and the Professionals can go forward effectively together.
victoria –
Kept the EBA negotiations over pay and conditions separate from organisational restructuring, OR been up front about organisational changes and made the case for them.
If there is no organisational change as far as volunteers are concerned then the government should have made whatever amendments were necessary to the EBA to satisfy volunteer concerns (setting up a ‘dispute resolution mechanism’ is a complete diversion) – if there were no changes to the relationship between volunteers and the CFA as a result of the EBA it should have been no problem at all to insert pointless words to that effect in the EBA.
Labors fault is that they didnt want to work with others.
As reported in Herald Sun a few weeks back
Last November, the committee revealed the CFA had refused to hand over some documents, including CFA board minutes. It was believed these documents would reveal what CFA management knew while firefighters were still being trained at Fiskville.
Documents leaked to the Herald Sun in July in 2012 revealed CFA management did not act when some in charge had been alerted to problems.
The cross-party committee has heard evidence from at least 90 witnesses in 17 days of hearings from last May, and accepted submissions from more than 450 people.
And as reported in the Age
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cfa-knew-of-fiskville-contamination-inquiry-finds-20160524-gp2onf.html
Lizzie
#331 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 11:35 am
So, there is a dark side to you Lizzie.
You always come across as sweet and rational. 😉
Geez, some people are so gullible when it comes to buying LNP bullshit.
They don’t even seem to try very hard these days because they just know that they’ll get away with anything, and the suckers will be lining up in a queue to buy whatever piece of stinking bullshit that they’re selling this time.
The Coalition really do have a barely-contained contempt for the underprivileged.
This confinement of Coalition contempt to just the underprivileged must be a new development.
Barney in Saigon
Lizzie can be quite warlike about some things.
Bemused
#280 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 10:31 am
I certainly have never looked at the preference deals. I certainly read up on the parties contesting the Seat or Senate and decide my vote on that, always numbering below the line in the Senate.
With the changes for the first time I have seriously considered voting above the line but that would mean preferencing Bernardi ahead of other Liberals so I think I’ll have to stay below the line.
PM’s campaign lacking active verbs
Members of the extreme right of the Liberal Party are not the only ones missing former prime minister Tony Abbott this election.
Journalists following Malcolm Turnbull’s campaign trail are nostalgic for Abbott – vintage 2010 and 2013 polls.
“Man of the people and action hero” was the former prime minister’s default mode.
Fast forward to 2016 and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has nailed the routine – he’s out on the road looking relaxed, friendly and visibly having fun.
But Turnbull looks bored, awkward and arrogant.
His security personnel are also more aggressive towards the travelling media representatives compared to Shorten’s and that is costing him good shots.
There’s also sometimes a lack of imagination.
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/pms-campaign-lacking-active-verbs/news-story/382c2ec29061267f9164fbcd340b4798
The trouble with voters nowadays is there too many wannabee/pretend liberals who wont admit they are working class and they think the fibs are going to make them rich.All they are going to get is 3 more years of directionless shite as during last 3 years.They must aspire to be second raters as thats all this govt are, a bunch of second raters.You cant create jobs in the industries of the past.We will be stuck in the 50s forever with this mob.
Lol no one can clearly explain how volunteers will be impacted and no one has an alternative solution
Barney In Saigon
But – but – I put on the brakes – eventually – after I rounded the corner and saw Fraser.
Ctar1
I do indeed get very angry about the smug, deceitful Liberals. But I’m not game to be too physical – although I did dive out of a shopping centre once to avoid Kennett. I was sure that if I cam e face to face with him i’d be rude.
Hello. Reading William’s lead story, does anyone have an opinion on how much ballot paper order is worth? NXT seems to have done well in several SA seats, not only Grey. For example, the NXT candidate is ahead of my own local member, the inspiring Chris Pyne, who is trying to hang onto Sturt. There seems a fair chance it will go to preferences, where NXT should do well. The question is, how well?
Second question, if it is hung parliament territory again, as seems distinctly possible, does anyone know who NXT will support? I think it is valid to ask this before the election, as it could affect how some allocate preferences. Is a vote for NXT a vote for Shorten or a vote for Turnbull? I am surprised this has not been asked more, much as I would love Chris Pyne to be granted an all too well taxpayer- funded retirement after his years of dedicated service to us.
What’s this Labor ministers folding like cards BS? One has gone over this issue. Name another.
Barney
We are judged by what we do, not by what we are tempted to do. Otherwise there would be a lot of people facing jail, including moi, after every time Abbott spoke in public.
But Turnbull looks bored, awkward and arrogant.
Viz his and Lucy’s walk through the Nambour show today and his desultory play with the Jumping Frog. Plus the heavies to the sides and back that were keeping the hoi polloi away from His Malcolmness.
Bug1
#281 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 10:33 am
The way I see the changes numbering or not numbering the last box makes no difference as there is always at least two people in the count so your preferences remains with your higher preference choice.
Not going to get into this argument. I just wanted to point out that reducing something to a simplistic, politically loaded maxim, like you have done in the second sentence here, is also a form of the spin that you are decrying in your first sentence.
I had to be pleasant to a bunch of Liberal MLA’s once including BO’F. It was at the opening of a client’s project before the 11 election cleaned out Obeid et al on the North Shore so I was at a severe disadvantage. It was agony.
lizzie
I once organised a soup kitchen as a protest outside a speech Kennett was giving – we gave up cups of soup to people as they went in.
Saw Kennett coming, and grabbed a cup of soup to give to him.
He was surrounded by bodyguard types, but to my astonishment – as you know, I’m not very tall – I some how basically slipped in under their noses and found myself face to face with the man.
Later I said to my husband that it was unbelievable that I’d got that close – “I could have stabbed him,” I said.
“You could have at least spilt soup on him,” hubby responded.
In USA Clinton has an 11 point lead over trump in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.No sign of retirement of any of the candidates. Clinton 68, Trump 69. Makes Shorten look like a baby.
There seems a fair chance it will go to preferences, where NXT should do well. The question is, how well?
A fair few voters will put a one next to their preferred candidate and then donkey pref. So NXT will pick these up. In the end though it will depend on if Labor directs prefs to them or not. If they don’t enough Labor voters will save Pyne’s arse. Bloody awful scenario if it came to that, but I can appreciate the realpolitik.
zoomster Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:26 pm
Saw Kennett coming, and grabbed a cup of soup to give to him.
He was surrounded by bodyguard types, but to my astonishment – as you know, I’m not very tall – I some how basically slipped in under their noses and found myself face to face with the man.
Later I said to my husband that it was unbelievable that I’d got that close – “I could have stabbed him,” I said.
“You could have at least spilt soup on him,” hubby responded.
***********************************************
or given him a cup of pee soup …..
zoomster
Your husband gets the medal for that suggestion. Subtle, but effective. 🙂
Socrates
#469 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:21 pm
Watch out Socrates,
Two words, “Minority Report”, it could be coming. 😉
Phoenix
We’re Labor people, so of course we were serving up a good red tomato soup.
Carey Moore
“is also a form of the spin that you are decrying in your first sentence.”
Yes it is. I am going to move on from this subject here at PB. I don’t want to get partisan on this issue, as I feel it is slipping towards, my self being included.
“You could have at least spilt soup on him,” hubby responded.
and blamed it on being bumped by his minders…
What is it with the Libs and sex scandals?
Candidate quits over brothel ownership
A LIBERAL candidate has quit after it emerged that he owns “the best brothel in Frankston” that charges $90 for sex at a business called Paradise Playmates.
Bludgertrack has gone backwards for Labor from 50.6 to 50.1 since the election was called. Anyone else find this odd?
The minors and micros could make the polls look silly. Is Pauline Hanson going to be back in parliament?
Ratsak
Thanks for your honest explanation. Dissapointed to hear about Labor preferencing Pyne aka “the twerp”. With all due respect to Labor I think I will allocate my own preferences in that case. I sometimes think those who practice “realpolitik” are in danger of winning the battles but losing the war. Have they learnt nothing from electing Madigan and Family First?
So any view on how many % allocate preferences that way?
This will have a big impact on Jamie Briggs too, who, if it can be believed, is less popular locally than Pyne.
[Briggs is almost universally disliked in his electorate.]
Including the local Liberal Party branch. Even more so.
Ratsak
#473 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:23 pm
I once had the misfortune to be sat at the same table as Andrew Southcott (Lib Boothby). I’d gone to Primary School with him years before and he hadn’t improved over time.
It was a very difficult night for me as I severely bit my tongue and resorted to “if you’ve got nothing nice to say then don’t say anything”.
I hope the others at the table unknowingly appreciated this rare show of decorum.
Poor Briggs
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-jamie-briggs-has-given-up-on-mayo-20160610-gpg1c3
zoomster Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:32 pm
Phoenix
We’re Labor people, so of course we were serving up a good red tomato soup.
******************************************
Old Fast Forward gag :
Kylie Mole – looking disconsolately into a bowl – “what’s in this bowl , Gran ?”
Gran “Its Bean soup”
Kylie ” I don’t want to know what its been …… what is it now ?”
Phoenix
That was a souper joke.
Samantha Maiden
1h1 hour ago
Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden
EXCLUSIVE: Liberal candidate quits after it emerges he owns “the best brothel in Frankston” http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/liberal-candidate-john-minchiang-hsu-quits-over-owning-frankston-brothel-paradise-playmates/news-story/4d75249522a6c337b1775da574e813e6 …
Soc
Last I heard (might be chinese whispers) was that Nick X will let his successful candidates decide for themselves in a hung parliament. There are some right leaning ones in traditionally right leaning electorates who will likely support a Turnbull led Coalition.
Dont know if any of them have been directly questioned on this. I can understand their ambiguity on this, as you would like to think the national 2PP would have an impact on their decision.
I would imagine the Clubs associations (and anyone linked to gambling in general) will be very very worried about this either way.
Cupid
Innovative, Agile, Exciting …
😆
Have they learnt nothing from electing Madigan and Family First?
Perhaps that’s why they might hold their nose and pref Prissy? I don’t know what the NXT candidate might be like. But also if Labor get the Libs to put the Greens last in seats where that matters as a quid pro quo for saving the poodle then so be it.
cupidstunt Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:44 pm
Phoenix
That was a souper joke.
****************************************
My partner is a really bad cook; the other night, she fixed alphabet soup – it spelled out “Help!”
On the withdrawal of a brothel owner:
thomas violence @thomas_violence · 1h1 hour ago
bk @ #415 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 1:38 pm
……………………………………………………………………….
Thats for his new job after July 2 – Pizza Delivery.
He still wouldn’t be ‘qualified’ for that role either.
That’s very patronizing of you. Victorian Labor has a great political talent in Jane Garrett and you strip her of agency and acumen; it doesn’t occur to you that the leader might have screwed up and she is doing an honourable thing.
thomas violence Retweeted Samantha Maiden
weird that the LNP are embarrassed by ownership of a legal small business and not everything else they do
especially when they’re so keen to give him a tax cut so he can employ more girls.
#jobsandgrowth
“”The trouble with voters nowadays is there too many wannabee/pretend liberals who wont admit they are working class and they think the fibs are going to make them rich.””
They are ” working class” SNOBS who think because they work in a office or some similar occupation, it is beneath them to vote for a “working Class ” political party.
Accounts for about 10% of the Liberal vote.