Essential Research and Roy Morgan have both reported over the past few days, in accordance with their usual weekly and fortnightly schedules, giving BludgerTrack a completed weekly cycle’s worth of polling results to play with. The results indicate no real change on last week, with the recent ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan results exciting the aggregate neither collectively or individually. ReachTEL and Essential in particular recorded less week-on-week movement than their headline figures might suggest. The seat projection has ticked a point in favour of Labor, the gain coming off Tasmania in response to a fairly radical result in the Morgan breakdown this week. The only new data on leadership ratings since last week is from Essential Research, and it’s strengthened the impression that Malcolm Turnbull’s polling plunge has levelled off at a net value of zero, while slightly blunting Bill Shorten’s recent trend upswing.
Polls:
• Today’s Essential Research records an unusual two-point shift to the Coalition on the fortnightly rolling aggregate, reversing its 51-49 deficit from recent polling. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 41%, Labor is down two to 35%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is up one to 4%. A monthly reading of leadership ratings finds Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten respectively steady on 34% and up one to 44%, and Turnbull leading 40-27 as preferred prime minister, down from 43-28. The poll finds a reasonable level of awareness about politics and the election, at least from their own sample, in that 77% corrected identified it as being held in July, 50% knew it would be for all seats in both houses, and 64% were able to identify Scott Morrison as Treasurer. This week’s component of the online survey involved 1007 respondents, polled from Thursday to Sunday.
• The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.
• Roy Morgan has a poll, sort of, from the Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella seeks to recover for the Liberals following her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. However, the result is compiled from the entirety of its face-to-face surveying in the electorate since the 2013 election, and the voting intention result relates only to the generic question on party-based voting intention, so its finding that the Coalition has a 51-49 lead over “independent” is unlikely to mean very much. In recognition of this, the Morgan release mostly focuses on most important issue results.
Preselections:
• Labor has preselected Malarndirri McCarthy, member for Arnhem in the Northern Territory department from 2005 until her unexpected defeat in 2012, to replace Nova Peris as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. McCarthy prevailed from a field of five indigenous women, including Ursula Raymond, former chief-of-staff to Peris; Denise Bowden, chief executive of the Yothu Yindi Foundation; and Cathryn Tilmouth, a former ministerial adviser. Amos Aikman of The Australian reports McCarthy and Raymond respectively had backing from the Left and the Right. McCarthy has lived in Sydney since 2012, where she has worked for NITV and SBS, and her membership of the party had lapsed.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party has finally resolved the order of its Senate ticket, putting hard Right incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells at number four and centre Right newcomer Hollie Hughes to the unlikely prospect of number six, number five being reserved for the Nationals. The top three positions have gone to Marise Payne, Fiona Nash of the Nationals, and Arthur Sinodinos. Retired major-general Jim Molan, who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals, could only manage seventh place. The decision was made at a meeting of the state executive held after objections were raised about an earlier process of “faxed ballot” sent through by email.
Prognostications:
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports Labor sources saying the party has “all but given up hope” of David Feeney retaining Batman from Alex Bhathal of the Greens, and that Anthony Albanese is under serious pressure in Grayndler. Labor is “almost certain” Tanya Plibsersek will be returned in Sydney, and “quietly confident” about Peter Khalil retaining the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which would be threatened if the Liberals directed preferences against Labor. However, it is noted that polling young inner-city voters is difficult, invoking Labor internal polling before the New South Wales state election which wrongly pointed to Labor wins over the Greens in Newtown and Balmain.
• James Massola of Fairfax reports the seats of greatest concern to Coalition strategists are Barton, Dobell, Lindsay, Robertson, Eden-Monaro and Macarthur in New South Wales, Dunkley and La Trobe in Victoria, Petrie and Capricornia in Queensland, Lyons in Tasmania, and Solomon in the Northern Territory. However, they remain hopeful of picking up the Melbourne seats of Bruce and Chisholm, both of which are set to be vacated by sitting Labor members. Labor strategists are said to be keen to add to their list of potential gains Hasluck and Burt in Western Australia, Hindmarsh in South Australia, Banks, Paterson and Page in New South Wales, Braddon in Tasmania, and Bonner in Queensland. Cowan in Western Australia is curiously absent from either list, and it’s unclear if the Liberals weren’t counting Paterson on the basis that it’s a notionally Labor seat after the redistribution, as indeed are Barton and Dobell.
Miscellany:
• The latest campaign car crash victim is Chris Jermyn, the Liberal candidate for the highly marginal Labor-held seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern outskirts. Jermyn and some supporters gatecrashed Bill Shorten’s visit to a health centre in Sunbury, but Jermyn evidently hadn’t reckoned on being asked basic questions about health policy by a News Corp journalist at the event, which he proved unable to answer. Jermyn refused to answer questions posed to him as he left the event, saying: “This is why I hate journalists.” The seat is held for Labor by Rob Mitchell on a margin of 0.2%.
• Former Australian Idol host James Mathison is running against Tony Abbott in Warringah. Mathison’s pitch seems to be that Abbott’s deep conservatism leaves younger social liberals in the electorate with no one to vote for.
windhover
You do what you like but that is the reason for the Greens attitude like it or lump it.
Blame the people that support off shore policy that voted against it before you blame the people against the policy that voted for it.
It is that simple. The simple fact is that if the party supporting the off shore policy had voted for off shore the motion would have passed
oops sorry thats voted against not for of course
I wish William could put a cap on the number of comments any individual could make each day.
Greentaur just posts a huge volume of his nonsense posts each day seemingly trying to drown out all others.
bemused
It’s not possible to tailor a blog to suit individual demands, nor should it be a requirement of the blog owner to do so. Personally I find the large majority of you all to be great commenters. Most of the time anyway.
bemused
I wish William could put a cap on the number of comments any individual could make each day.
BW and Briefly just posts a huge volume of thier nonsense posts each day seemingly trying to drown out all others.
There fixed it for you. As close to reality as your post.
That is not very
Australia’s education funding model is so dysfunctional that simply pumping billions of extra dollars into the system will not reverse the widening class divide between our schools, a new report has found.
With school funding emerging as a flashpoint in the federal election, the report Uneven playing field: The state of Australia’s schools, is bound to raise hackles as the parties debate the best ways to make Australia a smarter country and improve the nation’s academic results.
::::
The Coalition has committed $1.2 billion extra for schools over three years while Labor had said it would fund the final two years of the Gonski agreements, worth $4.5 billion.
Mr Bonnor said Labor’s Gonski pledge falls short of promising a new separate funding body, which would safeguard school funding against the whims of politicians by setting standards for funding.
“Governments don’t want to give up the three-to-four year electoral cycle of making funding announcements and handing out gifts to different sectors.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/private-school-students-to-receive-1000-more-in-government-funds-than-public-students-by-2020-20160531-gp8av8#ixzz4AHp1PWgK
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
It’s actually really handy that I can work full-time and still use this blog to get an almost running commentary of the political campaign (and how many stuff ups the Libs can do in a day that often don’t get reported in the nightly TV news).
I reckon the ALP is missing a trick by not talking about the transition to a new economy (NBN & regional development, renewables, affordable higher ed). Would undermine heaps of the LNPs trickle down/ old economy / jobs and growth crap.
Its the perfect antidote to the entire LNP reelection strategy.
Labor = New Economy and innovation
LNP = Old economy and same old decline
Lefty E
Labor is talking about it. Mr Shorten did just that announcing a policy to get access to the savings from solar power for renters that owner occupiers have had.
https://theconversation.com/the-penalty-rates-time-bomb-is-ticking-59738
A looming decision on weekend penalty rates presents problems for both major parties in the lead-up to Australia’s federal election. The Fair Work Commission seems likely to hand down its decision in the controversial case soon after the federal election.
dayks11 @ #105 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 11:20 am
Setting a cap on all posters would be a sensible move to prevent certain individuals from monopolising the blog and would be in the interests of everyone else.
It would also probably improve the quality of the posts from those prolific posters as they would think about if a post was really worthwhile before hitting ‘Submit’.
dtt: Whatever. Some of us have to deal with the real world consequences of misconceptions of viral epidemiology, transmission, and pathogenesis, rather than just blogging pseudonymously. I suggest you read up on the work of David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
How can the economy grow at 1.1 when most if not all other indicatars are in negative?
Political Alert
2m
Political Alert @political_alert
ABS Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (link: http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/56049D1B7919D781CA257FC40013B6E4/$File/52060_mar%202016.pdf) ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisu… #ausbiz #ausvotes
This is a New Zealand infrastructure story but I think readers might see the connection with local Australian industry debates:
“Five hundred tonnes of steel from China has been found to be too weak for four bridges on the $450 million Huntly bypass that forms part of the $2 billion Waikato Expressway.
Contractors building what is a ‘Road of National Significance’ chose a very low bid for the steel tubes.
But the test certificates for them have turned out to be wrong, and now an expensive fix-up job is under way.”
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/bypass-bridge-steel-found-to-fail-tests/ar-BBtHCky?li=BBqdg4K&ocid=iehp
Yes our industries must be competitive, but no worker can compete on price making a product to meet international standards against a product that is rubbish.
MarkDiStef: The male Nationals candidate for Indi doesn’t support abortion even in the case of rape https://t.co/cxhUsg0vO6 https://t.co/qXvoV57xG8
Mr Bowen presser on National Account figures
I’m doing some serious scrolling at the moment to avoid certain ‘debates’. I can’t be bothered installing STFU. Any chance of a dedicated topic for the brawlers?
A long article on Di Natale and the Greens:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/01/the-third-man-greens-leader-richard-di-natale-campaigns-his-own-way
And then, of course, there is the possibility that the libs won’t be able to sandbag the marginals and 50.1 % will be enough to get Labor over the line (perhaps because, as a study recently found, there are more chicks in marginal seats and chicks tend to vote labor). I’m still not sure why this meme has become entrenched that Labor has to win by 51% plus. We really won’t know until the night.
I think a certain flying creature who’s really a one-trick pony could have a thread all to him or herself .
Just what the parliament needs,the prospect of another anti-choice zealot joining its ranks.
Roy
Its a political blog. Repetition of position goes with the territory. Its not just a Labor blog and even if it was even in Labor party meetings a lot of repetition of position gets put.
bemused
Seems a bit of a heavy handed approach given it’s easy enough to just scroll past posts or posters you disagree with. Not sure it would actually improve post quality either – if anything I would think it would limit the ability to have robust discussion (Labor/Green wars notwithstanding of course).
Greentaur @ #116 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 11:39 am
If it is possible, Corboy is potentially worse than Mirabella.
The Nationals must have tried really hard to come up with him.
http://insidestory.org.au/schools-out-during-the-long-election-campaign
Today’s national accounts growth figures (+1.1%) are OK until you read the fine print:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-01/gdp-march-quarter-abs-economic-growth-data/7466424
“The largest detractor from growth was business investment, which fell 2.2 per cent due to less engineering construction and less spending on new buildings.”
JFC. I cannot understand why it seems that conservative males think they can dictate what women do with their bodies.
kevin-one-seven @ #120 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 11:42 am
The womens vote used to favour the Libs so that turn around in recent years is very interesting and yet seems to have not been studied.
I cannot see Labor going backwards in any state as some have suggested could happen in Victoria.
2013 was a dreadful election for Labor. Rudd was making stupid rushed and impulsive decisions and the ‘Gillard Effect’ still lingered.
If Victoria returns to pre-2013 voting, we will pick up Deakin, Corangamite, Latrobe and Dunkley due to Bilson’s departure.
dayks11 @ #124 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 11:49 am
A limit applied to all would not be heavy handed.
If I was limited to (say) 6 posts a day, I would not waste any of them responding to Greentaur and I would make sure I had something worthwhile to say.
6 is probably a bit on the low side.
In a nutshell: religion. Just look at what’s happening in Oklahoma at present (link on previous page), all because of religion.
bemused
Not just Labor but all progressive voters are going up. The problem for the right is they have a split on. They are used to the left fighting but do not see their own side is now irrevocably split.
The moderate Turnbull kowtowing to the right of the party is only the latest example of this. If you are a moderate liberal of the style we used to see in the Fraser years where does your vote go?
Just as it took time for the split to become apparent and to see some voters leave Labor and take decades for that split to show up in party terms so it is with the right.
Pup and NXT are just the first incarnations of this. Whichever is the real moderate centre right will take over as the party of the right and we will see the current LNP as the extreme right they really are.
This is a trend that Europe has already gone through and we are just following in the footsteps because the LNP are not moderate.
The Tories in the UK do not fit in this because they are not so extreme they denied the science of things like climate change
bemused
Stop using Greentaur I object. Keep it up and I will complain to William for you breaching blog rules. I seem to remember using correct handle is one of those rules
confessions
Yes some think religious rights over ride other rights. They do not believe in equal treatment and use religion as a fig leaf to attack equality to the detriment of those religions they profess to come from
bemused
You want a blog that limits posts try the ABC Drum site or Newslimited etc. They put limits on posts that William does not. Its why they are very different experiences
“JFC. I cannot understand why it seems that conservative males think they can dictate what women do with their bodies.”
Yes, it’s all about control, and religion is just a justification, as it so often is for the kind of fascist thinking that gives rise to such views.
Too true! Very disappointing considering it is in fact 2016. My not-so-inner atheism is fuming.
The idea of limiting the number of blog posts that an individual can contribute is not a good one. I for one would miss the regular stellar insights that Bemused offers, especially when it comes to their ABC and the greens.
Corboy is an accidental candidate. Basically the Nats didn’t think they had a shot so they were having difficulty finding anyone. Sophie shooting herself in the foot so emphatically wasn’t an expected outcome.
This is what I mean by their is a split on the right. A lot of moderate liberals looking for alternatives. As conservatives are just that it takes longer for them to move from their tradition. However the days of the LNP vote being higher than the Labor one may be behind us.
So the Tory candidates for Indi are both unelectable duds. And then there is McG.
It would be so good for the people of Indi and other like seats if their phobia about Labor could be changed….they would have a great deal to gain from Labor representation
Sky saying that pressure is building against super changes in the coalition party room
Well said – completely agree. Wish more conservative-leaning voters understood this. It’s disgusting and needs to be well and truly rejected.
Can we hope that Corboy borrows the gun Sophie’s using and also shoot himself in the feet a few times?
An optimistic interpretation of what is happening in the polls is that people are getting sucked in my Malcolm’s “We’ve got a plan” mantra. But he’s got to keep that bullshit afloat for another four weeks plus. Surely voters will wise up to the fact that it’s all about giving tax cuts to companies which won’t produce any jobs anyway. How can he hide that for another four weeks.
Not to mention BK’s dawn patrol – might get limited to tight selection of 6 articles and a single cartoon! Guess it would be kinda like Latika’s double shot articles but much better.
K07 – enough voters come to the view that their all the same (a view actively promoted by sections of the MSM), they may well think, might as well stay with what we’ve got.
Labor’s challenge is to effectively counter this misconception.
if enough voters…
“If I was limited to (say) 6 posts a day, I would not waste any of them responding to Greentaur and I would make sure I had something worthwhile to say.”
If you had any self discipline you wouldn’t anyway. So i call bullshit on that.
Guytaur is making a very simple point but most people here are too blinded by their own confirmation bias to see it. Its stupid to expect someone else to change their policy/beliefs to benefit you in a vote when another group who would appear to support your ideas actually vote against their policy or beliefs simply to spite you. When this happens whining about the people who stuck by their principles is childish tedium. You could far more effectively attack your primary opponent by pointing out their mendaciousness on this issue. You could acknowledge the Greens, say “We think they are wrong but at least they stand by their principles unlike the LNP who abandoned theirs for cheap political advantage and simply to hurt their political opponents in a shameless grab for power. (And look at what they did with it once they’d grabbed it.)” and really nail the people you’re sposed to be fighting the election against.
All this fighting with the Greens is ridiculous frankly. The ALP, The Greens and a bunch of conservative independents worked together to form one of the most effective and hard working parliaments this country has ever seen. But the ALP “stalwarts” on this site are so traumatised by what happened when they actually did something good for Australia that they are too scared to own their own legacy.
If the ALP lose this upcoming election that attitude will be a big part of why. And it will cost the rest of t us too.
Adrian@138
I agree. I value most of the contributors here. I just scroll past stuff that I do not want to read, and try not to bite at deliberate provocations – although I am not always successful in this!
For me the hard stuff to ignore is the “their all the same stuff” which is a) not true, and b) has been shown to favour the conservative side of politics, by causing voter disengagement – this has been a particular problem in the US, which has brought about the rise of the dangerous and Fascist anti-politician, Donald Trump.
However, I do scroll past these contributions, because it is important not to get drawn into a useless fight, but to concentrate on policy differences, and the bigger picture that if the Liberals get back, the IPA, and hence Rupert Murdoch will be running Australia.
William Gibson puts it well: http://thestandard.org.nz/william-gibson-on-donald-trump/
1) Spent a little time in Greece under the Colonels, Spain under Franco. That was fascism.
2) After that experience, use of “fascism” to describe any US political reality was cause for an eyeroll, however slight
3) What’s happening now, though, with Trump, that’s finally the 100% real deal. That’s American fascism, straight up.
Another bad piece of Turnbull/Morrison superannuation changes is dropping the current $35,000 concessional cap for over 50s to $25,000. For those on 38% tax rate this is a neat $2,000 extra they pay in tax, and less super accumulation