Morgan state polling: May 2016

Morgan’s SMS state polling finds the Liberals remaining competitive or better in Western Australia, and Labor running third in South Australia.

Roy Morgan has just unloaded its latest monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, which go as follows:

New South Wales: The Coalition’s two-party lead narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, with the Coalition primary vote unchaged at 46%, Labor up two to 29% and the Greens up 1.5% to 17%. Sample: 850.

Victoria: Labor’s lead increases from 55-45 to 56-44, with their primary vote unchanged at 40.5%, the Coalition down one to 38%, and the Greens up one to 13%. Sample: 1041.

Queensland: A tied result on two-party preferred, after Labor led 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 35.5%, the Coalition up half to 40.5%, and the Greens are down two to 10.5%. Sample: 915.

Western Australia: The Liberal-Nationals record a 51-49 lead, after trailing 52-48 last time. However, both Liberal and Labor are up three points on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 34% respectively, with the Nationals down one to 7% and the Greens down two to 12.5%. Mark McGowan leads Colin Barnett as preferred premier by 60.5-39.5, down from 62.5-37.5. Sample: 770.

South Australia: The Liberals lead 52-48 after a tied results last time, but more to the point, Labor is trailing the Nick Xenophon Team on the primary vote by 28% (up four) to 25.5% (down 1.5%), with the Liberals up one to 31%, the Greens down 2.5% to 8%, and Family First up half to 5%. Sample: 802.

Tasmania: The Liberals are up a point to 41%, Labor is up 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens are down 4.5%. Sample: 355.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 comments on “Morgan state polling: May 2016”

  1. Sorry Morgan’s lost me. Labor leading 51-49 in Queensland? Greens getting 17% of the vote in NSW. I can guarantee you the media won’t give coverage to this poll.

    Labor leading in Queensland is strange, because everything else that has been polled that it’s not leading. I wish it was true, but it’s not.

  2. BB
    Compare whole-of-life, whole-of-population beef cattle quality of life with that of humans and it sort of evens out.
    Mum and Dad endured the depression, occupied Holland (Mum), the Burma Railway (Dad), the Indonesian War of Independence, being economic refugees, much hardship and then lingering deaths in hospitals thanks be to the Church’s hold on euthanasia.

  3. disasterboy @ #6 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 8:51 pm

    Hey God, Tasmania Greens down to what?

    17% supposedly, but Morgan has had ludicrously high values for them in Tasmania for quite a while.

    Whether this new reading means the Greens are actually struggling, or it’s just a low reading for Morgan because of sample size, or they’ve finally fixed something in their Tasmanian pool who knows.

    However there will be a new EMRS poll very soon which will make it possible to benchmark this Morgan. EMRS also skews to the Greens but at least it’s consistent about it.

    Labor have been kicking a few winners in Tasmania lately but at least the “energy crisis” doesn’t look like running into blackouts so that’s one big relief for the government.

  4. Kevin Bonham Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    Thanks Kevin.
    It will be interesting to see the Tasmania results in the Election for The Greens. Been a changing of the guard there.

  5. Very interesting results here!

    I suspect the Green PV is overstated a bit in NSW, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see it well above 10%. I think a lot of non-NSW people don’t quite understand how truly awful the last state Labor government became, or the stench that still hangs around NSW Labor (which has not seriously reformed), and has just been reinforced by Noreen Hay and Jamie Clements. If any other state Liberal government had forced through council amalgamations, the backlash would be BIG. (I would not be at all surprised to see rural independents make a big comeback if the issue is still burning in 2019, as the Nationals have shown themselves to be essentially useless.)

  6. teh_drewski @ #9 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    Labor relying on Green preferences just to make the TPP in SA.
    That’s a PvO WOW for sure.

    While not denying that NXT could be a big thing in an SA state election, that’s partly just Morgan being Morgan. It has been greatly overestimating minor party votes federally compared to other polls lately and seems prone to the same thing at state level.

    Primarily, SMS polling is a poor polling method. It costs the respondent money to respond (albeit not much) and they actually have to make the effort to do so. This creates an innate skew towards responses from the politically engaged and enthused, who are more likely to be splitters.

  7. Well, it’s anecdotal, but the mood is rather buoyant in Anne Aly’s phonebanks – incidentally, there’ll be fruit and cake (not fruitcake, sadly :P) at tomorrow night’s, if anyone here is coming along 🙂

  8. Trade deficit still largely in the red probably due to the fact that exports has risen, but foreign debt still reigns just as it has under Howardm

  9. I’d like to point out that the rise of NXT is due to dissatisfaction with both major parties, not just Labor.

    If it were just about Labor, then the Liberals would be killing it but they’re not. In fact, 31% for them is not that great either.

    Indeed, Labor are in a much more dire position but also remember that they are a 4th-term government over a really badly struggling economy. Also remember that the centre-left primary vote is also a lot more fractured (with the Greens etc.)

    Basically the picture is this: SA wants a new State Government but they don’t want the Liberals. NXT has presented them with an opportunity to accommodate this position. Whether or not that translates into seats and the opportunity to be involved in future government, I don’t know. However, it is something that should be of deep concern to both major parties.

  10. There’s now quite a collection of new entrants in the election campaign – doubtless to deflect attention away from MT’s super woes:
    Warren Groeth
    Warren Bizness
    Warren Jobz (tomorrow?)

  11. Kevin Bonham @ 11

    Yeah, I’m not reading too much into it, I doubt the next election will look anything like it, but as a measure of dissatisfaction with both major parties in SA right now I think it has some merit. And, perhaps, gives some hope to centrists in other states that there’s an exploitable opportunity in the electorate, if they can just find the right candidate and platform.

  12. If I was Xenophon, I’d probably be more than a little worried about the possibility of those SA results being replicated in a state election. A whole bunch of first-term, untested MPs, elected as representatives of a party with a very broad ideological platform, who Xenophon would have next to no control over and who could end up with a truly powerful position in a hung parliament. It has the potential to be an absolute mess.

  13. As far as I know, the NXT is not calling for SA independence. The SNP is calling for Scottish independence.

    The main similarity is geographical concentration. Geographical concentration benefits many parties around the world in single member systems. The Nationals in Australia, the SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales, the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec and many others.

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