Essential Research and Roy Morgan have both reported over the past few days, in accordance with their usual weekly and fortnightly schedules, giving BludgerTrack a completed weekly cycle’s worth of polling results to play with. The results indicate no real change on last week, with the recent ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan results exciting the aggregate neither collectively or individually. ReachTEL and Essential in particular recorded less week-on-week movement than their headline figures might suggest. The seat projection has ticked a point in favour of Labor, the gain coming off Tasmania in response to a fairly radical result in the Morgan breakdown this week. The only new data on leadership ratings since last week is from Essential Research, and it’s strengthened the impression that Malcolm Turnbull’s polling plunge has levelled off at a net value of zero, while slightly blunting Bill Shorten’s recent trend upswing.
Polls:
• Today’s Essential Research records an unusual two-point shift to the Coalition on the fortnightly rolling aggregate, reversing its 51-49 deficit from recent polling. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 41%, Labor is down two to 35%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is up one to 4%. A monthly reading of leadership ratings finds Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten respectively steady on 34% and up one to 44%, and Turnbull leading 40-27 as preferred prime minister, down from 43-28. The poll finds a reasonable level of awareness about politics and the election, at least from their own sample, in that 77% corrected identified it as being held in July, 50% knew it would be for all seats in both houses, and 64% were able to identify Scott Morrison as Treasurer. This week’s component of the online survey involved 1007 respondents, polled from Thursday to Sunday.
• The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.
• Roy Morgan has a poll, sort of, from the Victorian seat of Indi, which Sophie Mirabella seeks to recover for the Liberals following her defeat by independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. However, the result is compiled from the entirety of its face-to-face surveying in the electorate since the 2013 election, and the voting intention result relates only to the generic question on party-based voting intention, so its finding that the Coalition has a 51-49 lead over “independent” is unlikely to mean very much. In recognition of this, the Morgan release mostly focuses on most important issue results.
Preselections:
• Labor has preselected Malarndirri McCarthy, member for Arnhem in the Northern Territory department from 2005 until her unexpected defeat in 2012, to replace Nova Peris as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. McCarthy prevailed from a field of five indigenous women, including Ursula Raymond, former chief-of-staff to Peris; Denise Bowden, chief executive of the Yothu Yindi Foundation; and Cathryn Tilmouth, a former ministerial adviser. Amos Aikman of The Australian reports McCarthy and Raymond respectively had backing from the Left and the Right. McCarthy has lived in Sydney since 2012, where she has worked for NITV and SBS, and her membership of the party had lapsed.
• The New South Wales Liberal Party has finally resolved the order of its Senate ticket, putting hard Right incumbent Connie Fierravanti-Wells at number four and centre Right newcomer Hollie Hughes to the unlikely prospect of number six, number five being reserved for the Nationals. The top three positions have gone to Marise Payne, Fiona Nash of the Nationals, and Arthur Sinodinos. Retired major-general Jim Molan, who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals, could only manage seventh place. The decision was made at a meeting of the state executive held after objections were raised about an earlier process of “faxed ballot” sent through by email.
Prognostications:
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports Labor sources saying the party has “all but given up hope” of David Feeney retaining Batman from Alex Bhathal of the Greens, and that Anthony Albanese is under serious pressure in Grayndler. Labor is “almost certain” Tanya Plibsersek will be returned in Sydney, and “quietly confident” about Peter Khalil retaining the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, which would be threatened if the Liberals directed preferences against Labor. However, it is noted that polling young inner-city voters is difficult, invoking Labor internal polling before the New South Wales state election which wrongly pointed to Labor wins over the Greens in Newtown and Balmain.
• James Massola of Fairfax reports the seats of greatest concern to Coalition strategists are Barton, Dobell, Lindsay, Robertson, Eden-Monaro and Macarthur in New South Wales, Dunkley and La Trobe in Victoria, Petrie and Capricornia in Queensland, Lyons in Tasmania, and Solomon in the Northern Territory. However, they remain hopeful of picking up the Melbourne seats of Bruce and Chisholm, both of which are set to be vacated by sitting Labor members. Labor strategists are said to be keen to add to their list of potential gains Hasluck and Burt in Western Australia, Hindmarsh in South Australia, Banks, Paterson and Page in New South Wales, Braddon in Tasmania, and Bonner in Queensland. Cowan in Western Australia is curiously absent from either list, and it’s unclear if the Liberals weren’t counting Paterson on the basis that it’s a notionally Labor seat after the redistribution, as indeed are Barton and Dobell.
Miscellany:
• The latest campaign car crash victim is Chris Jermyn, the Liberal candidate for the highly marginal Labor-held seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern outskirts. Jermyn and some supporters gatecrashed Bill Shorten’s visit to a health centre in Sunbury, but Jermyn evidently hadn’t reckoned on being asked basic questions about health policy by a News Corp journalist at the event, which he proved unable to answer. Jermyn refused to answer questions posed to him as he left the event, saying: “This is why I hate journalists.” The seat is held for Labor by Rob Mitchell on a margin of 0.2%.
• Former Australian Idol host James Mathison is running against Tony Abbott in Warringah. Mathison’s pitch seems to be that Abbott’s deep conservatism leaves younger social liberals in the electorate with no one to vote for.
dayks11 @ #145 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:36 pm
BK is intelligent enough to be able to aggregate a whole lot of links into 2 – 4 posts.
kevin-one-seven @ #144 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Morrison was interviewed and said the budget sets out their plan.
So that kinda pins them down and should be used.
I’ve heard worse: Barnaby to Credlin
Barnaby Joyce isn’t offended at Peta Credlin’s colourful jibe at him.
Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff hit back at comments the Nationals leader made about the ex-prime minster’s ambitions, insisting her old boss has no plans to return to the Liberal leadership.
“I think that’s absolute rubbish. I was going to say horse s*** but I don’t know if I can say that on TV,” she told Sky News.
“Honestly, Barnaby, get back on the wombat trail – please leave this alone.”
Mr Joyce laughed off the exchange on Wednesday, insisting he wouldn’t “commentate on commentators”.
“Nor am I going to get into a debate on the equine minutiae of what’s happening on the trail,” the deputy prime minister told reporters in Lismore in northern NSW.
“Line up a whole range of people who’ve said worse things about me.”
Mr Joyce deflected assertions Ms Credlin’s comments could be taken as derogatory to the country party’s campaign.
Instead he’s focused on the wombat trail.
“I went for a run around in Lismore talking to people – that’s the sort of campaign I like running.
“Hail the scared wombat!”
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/cormann-rules-out-abbott-comeback/news-story/22e84a4931d14835561f9c6441a54cd3
‘If the ALP lose this upcoming election that attitude will be a big part of why. ‘
No, it won’t. The ALP winning this election is a long shot anyway, and always has been.
But that won’t stop a swag of (mostly) Greens supporters claiming credit if Labor wins, and blaming Labor for not being nice to them if Labor loses.
jules @ #148 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:40 pm
The problem is he keeps making it over and over, hundreds of times… enough I say.
And when he is not doing that, he is presenting us with his twitter feed. 🙁
ADRIAN – I agree. Yet, the electorate is being given the starkest choice I can remember!
You might disagree with him but Guytaur makes a valid contribution
Adrian@146
Absolutely spot on! it will not be easy, and at least there are a bit more than 4 weeks to go to try and change the thinking.
The article in the SMH “Malcolm Who” sums up the problem, which is just keep the Liberals.
At best, government is largely viewed as irrelevant. Most of the young people I’ve spoken to recently either hold views similar to those above or have no opinion at all. When pressed they will tell you they think government is ineffective and the idea that politicians are representatives of the people leaves them scratching their heads. “Nothing is really changing,” said another 20-something during a different group discussion. “It doesn’t matter who’s in. They change this and that and then the other party comes in and changes it back again.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-who-the-battle-for-relevance-with-young-voters-20160531-gp8063.html#ixzz4AICte1zY
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/sacked-for-having-a-cup-of-coffee-on-the-job-20160529-gp6pu4.html
Poor guy, all he wanted was to have some coffee to do his job. The workers in the company even said he was welcomed to it.
The management doesn’t seem to care about him using the water at the premises for cleaning.
Jenauthor @ 10:22 – you say the Green vs Labor stuff (“Greentaur” vs “Be-abusive”) is like kids fighting over the last lolly. Actually with the polls as they are, it may be like fighting over the empty bag after the Illibs have pinched all the lollies.
briefly Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:24 pm
So the Tory candidates for Indi are both unelectable duds. And then there is McG.
It would be so good for the people of Indi and other like seats if their phobia about Labor could be changed….they would have a great deal to gain from Labor representation
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I guess this sounds kinda trite – but its up to Labor to find some superlative candidate to represent them. In my own electorate a guy called Derek Amos ran for many years and was well respected by nearly everyone in the community as he was just a super guy and extremely effective member for the local community ….. hopefully someone similar can be found to stand above Sophie and Cathy ?????
bug1 @ #86 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 10:48 am
I think the proposition was that 62 people owned as much as the poorest half of the population.
As you say, tech does not necessarily concentrate income or wealth. Mainly, tech increases real wages. Consider railways. For example, how can it be argued that the development of railways had the effect of concentrating wealth? How can it be argued that social media has had wealth-concentrating effects when it has almost destroyed the media monopolies?
shiftaling @ #157 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:56 pm
Yes he does. Repetitively. Too frequently.
Shhesh – they’re!
BTW heard Emma Alberici claim in some intro on Lateline last week, that there was ‘scant difference’ between the 2 parties. Lunacy!
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/council-amalgamations-baird-government-ordered-to-reveal-kpmgs-role-in-mergers-20160601-gp8rh2.html#ixzz4AIFKvtM8
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Jack A Randa
😀
Adrian
I was just thinking about the “all the same” problem and concluding that the media play a large part in it, when you posted the comment by Alberici. Proof positive 🙂
jules @ #148 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:40 pm
…it won’t be for the want of trying.
Bill Shorten needs to get Turbull into a Q&A type forum to turn things in Labor’s favour!.
jack a randa @ #160 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm
I like your creativity. 😀
But the trend is to Labor, inexorably, so your thesis is wrong.
John Roskam of the IPA was on 3aw this morning complaining bitterly about the Lib’s Super policy. While not supporting the Labor one, he did say it was better because it is simpler to understand.
The interview was part of Neil Mitchell’s ongoing attack on the policy. In his editorial he said that the Liberal’s whole campaign is being undermined by it because it is dishonest and so complex that even the Liberal ministers don’t even understand it. He is urging the PM to dump it quickly and believes that he will.
The link to his editorial is below and well worth a listen.
http://www.3aw.com.au/news/neil-mitchell-calls-on-malcolm-turnbull-to-dump-controversial-policy-20160531-gp8o4y.html
adrian @ #164 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:05 pm
I never picked Alberici for a G.
Who said Alberici is a “G”?
Adrian,
The has been the media meme for two weeks now. It is hard to attack Labor on policies without sounding like the Billionaire’s friend, and so this is what we are left with, from ABC, SMH and even now the Guardian.
I really noticed it when I was doing the cartoons for BK. The cartoons pick up the mood of the CPG quite responsively, and there was a big change after the SMH cartoonists were sacked. Now the cartoonists, with the honourable exception of David Rowe, are covering issues in a way than suggests a lack of difference between the parties. No more of those great NBN memes from Pope unfortunately.
phoenixred @ #161 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:02 pm
Derek Amos, now there’s a name from the past.
“The problem is he keeps making it over and over, hundreds of times… enough I say.
And when he is not doing that, he is presenting us with his twitter feed. ”
Then ignore him bemused.
Repeating yourself ad nauseum in response, adds to the noise and dilutes whatever signals might make it thru here. And it just reinforces a situation where you two will argue with each other cos its what you do instead of having a merits based discussion.
And he has a valid point. Acknowledging it does not mean you have become a Green (tho i remember a voter compass result you once did that pegged you firmly as someone whose policies were most accurately reflected by the greens.) Acknowledging it once would give you the power to say “Yes we know we’ve been here before” and have some authority behind your posting. Unlike now.
Frankly I don’t understand why people frame that piece of politics as a Labor v Greens thing when all it really showed was the ALP searching for a solution to a wicked problem, the Greens saying “sorry we can’t be part of that. People voted for us because we will never be part of that.”
Its like some ALP supporters here would rather the Greens ignore the wishes of the people that voted for them rather than follow their “mandate”, however big or small it was. The Greens had to take that position. They couldn’t vote against their constituency’s wishes. It’d be like Labor supporting Workchoices.
When what actually happened was the LNP really did ignore the wishes of its constituency (an offshore solution) and went against its historical position (and what is probably the national interest) to further its own self interest and grab power.
BTW I didn’t call him Greentaur. You’ve misquoted me.
bemused @ #152 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 12:50 pm
The Libs are doing a bit better because they’ve started to campaign. For month after month they campaigned more for Labor than for their own column.
The next few weeks will tell the story. Can Labor get its message out? Or will they be smothered? If the Libs flood the joint they may be able to partly reverse three years of non-stop campaigning by Labor.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/economy/gdp-up-31pc-fastest-annual-pace-since-mid2012-20160601-gp8sem#ixzz4AIIqnuR9
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
The so called improvement to the GDP did nothing to improve the stock market level,so they werent impressed.
“”to its fastest annual pace in 3 1/2 years””
Dead Cat bounce?.
Hanson-Young red-faced after ‘trainwreck’ interview
YESTERDAY it was Foreign Minister Julie Bishop. Now Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has redefined the term trainwreck interview.
Senator Hanson-Young claimed her party wanted to abolish the concessional tax treatment of superannuation, before being rescued by her chief-of-staff.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/superannuation/hansonyoung-redfaced-after-trainwreck-interview/news-story/5b422490b5fcbb755f6a81362c245384
jules @ #176 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:16 pm
I don’t take him on all that often. I actually prefer to sit back and have a good laugh when GG does. GG is much funnier than me. 😀
You refer to my Vote Compass result and claim it tagged me as “someone whose policies were most accurately reflected by the greens”. Actually, no. Vote Compass appears to attribute a lot of positions to the Greens when in fact they have long been held by ALP members and the Greens have simply come along and tried to appropriate them.
But Labor is a party of Government and will put a platform to the people at elections that it thinks can attract majority support. That means suppressing the urge for instant gratification and doing what is achievable now while leaving the Greens to howl at the moon.
William on the air
http://theconversation.com/speaking-with-poll-bludger-william-bowe-on-the-election-races-to-watch-60251
“No, it won’t. The ALP winning this election is a long shot anyway, and always has been.
But that won’t stop a swag of (mostly) Greens supporters claiming credit if Labor wins, and blaming Labor for not being nice to them if Labor loses.”
It shouldn’t be a long shot. The LNP are a corrupt joke and they act against the national interest.
“…and blaming Labor for not being nice to them if Labor loses.”
That’s a childish comment. Seriously. That sort of attitude belongs on Bay 13 at the Bigfooty forum.
You constantly say that the Greens are too ideologically pure for politics. (But across the Western world right now there are huge numbers of people who are disengaged with politics and disillusioned with democracy. And your attitude is precisely why.) When what you mean is “anything other than my ideology”.
Its cos you say stuff like that as an ALP supporter that other people who are not committed to politics view the ALP and LNP as “the same” when they obviously aren’t.
jules @ #176 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:16 pm
You misunderstand the difference between a G-voter and a professional G. The former are usually Labor-positive. The latter detest Labor and ache to destroy them. This can be deduced from the postings of the Professional and Semi-Professional G’s that post here and elsewhere all the time. They are happy to use Labor in any number of ways and then, when all is said and done, hope to replace Labor. They infest the propaganda pages just as much as do the Right.
Labor have to campaign more broadly, intensively and directly to the G-friendly electorate. We have to encourage them to disaffiliate from the G’s and the Libs and assign their support to Labor. We have to do this among the notional left and among the apolitical centre. Labor has to redefine, expand and consolidate its franchise. Needless to say, such ambition by Labor would be opposed at every step by the Professional G’s.
Personally, when I look at the (loosely taken) centre left plurality and see a number around 45%, I think it is too low. We should have 55%. The Labor potential catchment is wide and deep. We have to re-imagine the scope of the possible and then go for it.
PhoenixRed
‘but its up to Labor to find some superlative candidate to represent them.’
Reality check here. I tried to find a superlative candidate in 2010. “It’s not a safe seat, why would I waste my time?” was the most common reaction.
And trying to do it as a local (speaking from personal experience) rules you out of many job opportunities . As it was, when I was a local councillor, Mirabella used to threaten the mayor that if I spoke out of turn the Shire would lose out on grants.
Oh, and let’s not forget the people who told me they’d never shop at my small business again, the abusive phone calls and letters, the physical abuse (why a man twice my size thinks that ‘accidentally’ shoving me to the ground achieved anything, I don’t know), the amount of time and money put in over decades…
If you’re a superlative candidate, you’re better off moving to a safe seat.
confessions @ #178 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:19 pm
There ‘s the deficit for you, lifting domestic demand. No doubt about it, the LNP will not be cutting the deficit anytime soon.
It was only net exports otherwise it would have flatlined
jules
My ideology is ‘evidence based policy which works in the real world’.
Fortunately, it seems to be what Labor tries to deliver as well.
shiftaling @ #173 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:11 pm
The oft-heard ‘plaint “Labor and the LNP are just the same” is a G-whinge. Those who utter it are echoing the G’s.
zoomster
The experience you describe would put anyone off trying. And as for Madame Sophy’s petulant attitude… verges on the corrupt.
I think this is what Turnbull should be worried about: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/iron-ore-price-sinks-to-threemonth-low/news-story/d1c6212023c3feb04f7f821a0fe88164
“The commodity is continuing to trade below the level of $US55 a tonne that was forecast in the federal budget, and a prolonged stint below this threshold could wipe a hole in government revenue assumptions.”
NOOOOO!!! Not this again! 😀
briefly @ #190 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:39 pm
Well, there is a grain of truth in it.
If your scale is extremely wide, extending from extreme left to extreme right, the ALP and LNP will tend to be clustered together somewhere near the middle….with the Greens right alongside them.
If we take a more realistic scale for Australian politics, omitting those really far out there extremes, then the gap between ALP and LNP becomes clear. And the differences are stark. And the Greens of course try to minimise those differences to maintain their purity and impotence.
cupidstunt @ #193 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:43 pm
The lower currency is helping offset this, helping not only iron ore producers but all other exporters and import-competing industries.
zoomster Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:35 pm
PhoenixRed
‘but its up to Labor to find some superlative candidate to represent them.’
Reality check here. I tried to find a superlative candidate in 2010. “It’s not a safe seat, why would I waste my time?” was the most common reaction.
*****************************************************
I know you understand what I was trying to say, Zoomster – and its very sad to find such a community that treats you, in particular, that way. Hopefully some bright eyed and bushy tailed young person – not scarred from too many battles – and willing to kick Sophies butt – will come along in the near future and inject some better feelings into your local community ( which ominously sounds like the nasty community in the old Spencer Tracy classic “Bad Day At Black Rock” )
From previous thread:
briefly @ #1354 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 3:14 am
Mayo.
kevin bonham @ #198 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 1:47 pm
Thanks doc!
lizzie
At the State election, we couldn’t get a local to run at all.
I pointed out to the local media that Jenny Macklin – a former Deputy Leader of the federal Labor party – and Daniel Andrews, the then Opposition Leader are both from Wangaratta and asked them to think about why it was that they ran for seats elsewhere.
If either of those two – considered to be stars within the party – had run for a local seat, they would have lost.