Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

No change from Essential Research this week, which also records Malcolm Turnbull dipping into net negative territory on personal approval for the first time.

The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,374 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. http://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/may/18/australias-indefinite-detention-of-refugees-illegal-un-rules

    Australia’s indefinite detention of refugees on secret security grounds is arbitrary and illegal, the UN has ruled, in the latest of 51 cases – the most of any country – before the human rights committee.
    :::
    The latest adjudication by the UN human rights committee relates to five refugees – one Iranian, three Sri Lankan Tamils and one Afghan Hazara – who were illegally detained between 2009 and 2015 because the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation had made an “adverse security assessment” against each of them.

    Done on the watch of the political duopoly.

  3. Rummel,

    You seem to be one of those barely literate immigrants that Dutton was going on about. Do you feel ashamed that you’re taking the job of a real Aussie?

  5. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/18/environmental-groups-demand-end-to-logging-of-australias-native-forests

    More than 30 environmental groups have signed a statement demanding that agreements allowing the logging of Australian native forests not be renewed.
    :::::
    Labor has not announced a policy on the expiring RFAs, and Butler did not respond to Guardian Australia’s request for comment. The Liberal party has said they would extend the RFA’s and also did not respond to a request for comment.

    The Greens have said they oppose the RFA’s extension or renewal.

    “The Greens stand with the Australian Forests and Climate Alliance in calling on the government to end this failed management scheme,” said Rice.

    “Not even the mining industry has the sort of wildlife protection exemptions enjoyed by the native forest logging industry, so it is no wonder so many of our iconic birds and animals are on the brink of extinction because of habitat loss.

  8. [Boerwar
    Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 8:22 pm
    R
    Shouldn’ t you be out destroying what is left of NSW biodiversity and killing some more breathing challenged Australians with some more of your ridiculous control burns?]

    Sure you’re not a Green, Boerwar?

  9. Rummel:

    Yes voters want boats stopped, but they don’t prioritise this ahead of job security and living standards.

    If the Libs want to spend the remainder of the campaign talking about asylum seekers and refugees in crude, divisive terms and not how they intend to deal with the economy then Labor will win the election. People didn’t sign onto Turnbull Mk II only to find he’s Tony Abbott.

  12. wesley rickard is the PB version of the ‘dead cat’ referred to above. It gets us talking about matters that he or his backers want us to talk about, instead of real issues.

  13. victoria:

    Did you see Mumble’s tweets I posted? When even Mumble is questioning of her terminology and approach, you know it was a railroad effort!!!

  15. Greensborough Growler

    It’s very simple. Stop the boats.

    Labor is killing the Libs on every other issue. But there seems to be a Green streak in every Labor member which never wants to be in government. Activism is so much easier and pure.

  17. Confessions @8:39PM: Yes voters want boats stopped, but they don’t prioritise this ahead of job security and living standards.

    Malcolm is counting on enough of the voters doing just that.

  18. Rummel,
    Anyone that thinks boats is important as you like to rabbit on about, has already decided who they are voting for. What’s the point discussing an issue if all you want to do is roll off simplistic slogans.
    My point is that you are kidding yourself and no one else that your vote is on offer for anyone else but the Libs.

  19. Oh deary me. This is hilarious in light of all the brouha on border security…….

    A network of Australian border security officials is allegedly working for organised criminals, including drug and tobacco smugglers, in the most serious corruption scandal to ever hit the nation’s border agencies.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/customs-officials-involved-in-drug-and-tobacco-smuggling-20160518-goy672.html#ixzz490Ht1mnY
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  20. [Greensborough Growler
    Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 8:51 pm
    Rummel,
    Anyone that thinks boats is important as you like to rabbit on about, has already decided who they are voting for.What’s the point discussing an issue if all you want to do is roll off simplistic slogans. My point is that you are kidding yourself and no one else that your vote is on offer for anyone else but the Libs.]

    Well, it’s game over for Labor then. And while you are dressing me down for ‘slogans’, I will note that whilst I disagree with you, I still play nice and note attack comments against an individual. Have a good night and enjoy the Lib victory. Because as you say; those who support stopping the boats already know who they are voting for.

  22. vic:

    I always thought it was a shame 730 replaced Red Kerry with Sales and Uhlmann. I never thought either of them were up to his standards, but what do I know, I’m just a loyal ABC consumer feeling more marginalised with the continued dumbing down of the network!

  23. As I have said before, Bluey is a very perceptive cephalopod.

    Any day on which Asylum Seekers or ‘Security’ is the major topic in voterland is a win for the Dark Side. They can’t lose. It doesn’t matter if it makes the Liberals seem imbecilic, insane or racist to thinking voters, the tactic isn’t aimed at them.

  26. vic:

    Perhaps. I’m of the view the Dutton comments were a deliberate strategy to somehow seize the narrative from Labor.

  27. Victoria – geez what is it about NSW that breeds corruption? (from the article Victoria link to)

    However, the federal government and customs chiefs, including the nation’s top border security official, Michael Pezzullo, have been repeatedly warned over four years in high-level confidential briefings about significant suspected corruption in the Border Force’s ranks, especially in NSW.

    That aside, it would appear that Turnbull and Dutton have “lost control” of our borders when it comes to tobacco and drugs smuggling.

  29. Fess

    Or perhaps a distraction to the raids that took place today by the AFP on borderforce officials. Oh the schaudenfraude!!

  30. Steve777
    Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 8:42 pm
    Why did Abbott go to Manly Wharf? To stop the boats.

    That’s it. Abbott and Dutton could deploy the Border Force to give all ferry passengers a literacy test and ensure they spoke perfect English. Those who failed would be sent back to Circular Quay and thence to their miserable hovels in Western Sydney.

  32. fess,
    Labor is braining them out on the hustings.
    As can be seen by the comments of CC, Rummel and Wesley the Dutton intention was to fire up their base and get them interested in an issue that has worked in the past.
    Labor is going to yawn and focus on economic issues which will be the real decider in this election.
    Dutton’s comments are a sign that the Liberal campaign is all but off the rails. They won’t be able to talk about boats for another six weeks while allowing Labor to dominate the “bread and butter” economic issues.

  33. vic:

    Surely an attempt to distract from the raids would involve a bold announcement on a non-boats related issue? The kind of announcement that would allow Turnbull to do his usual ‘innovation’, ‘excitement’ speech writ large?

    Or am I crediting the coalition with too much nouse?

  41. GG – not only can the Liberals NOT just talk about boats for the next six weeks – if they do, voters will zone out – just as what happened with Abbott when people became immune to Abbott’s border security FUD due to over-exposure.

  42. GG lol
    In around about way your post agrees with me. As I said, Labor has been killing the Libs on every other issue bar boats. Labor had fast come up with a counter because the Libs are going to home in of the soft belly of Labor, again. It’s all they have at the moment.

  43. The Crosby- Textor strategy that we’ve seen in action today is aimed at disengaged voters, not necessarily stupid or uneducated, who might otherwise vote on their assessment of their own / their family’s best interests.

  44. BREAKING: Arrests of a network of Peter Dutton’s customs officials working for the bad guys @ageinvestigates http://www.theage.com.au/national/customs-officials-involved-in-drug-and-tobacco-smuggling-20160518-goy672.html …

    Great. Now we’ll have the AFP investigating the ABF. One bunch of politically partisan plods investigating another.

    They’ll take a couple of years to investigate, and then conclude there’s not enough evidence to prosecute.

  45. Rummel,
    Yawn.
    You promised to leave the board and not abuse.
    Like all good Libs, you’ve broken those promises within minutes of announcing them.

  47. They’ll take a couple of years to investigate, and then conclude there’s not enough evidence to prosecute.

    Maybe they could apply to the Federal Court for the texts?

    That should only take about 5 years.

  48. Hi all. New Crikey member and “Poll Bludger” poster here. Have read comments for a while and thought I’d join.

    Re: Dutton comments and subsequent skullduggery today by LNP – they know exactly what they’re doing. There will be a lift in LNP primary next Newspoll. This rubbish dog whistling is LNP Campaign 101. I’m surprised it’s come in Week 2 but will work.

  50. Great. Now we’ll have the AFP investigating the ABF. One bunch of politically partisan plods investigating another.

    Do you think it’ll even get to that stage?

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