Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

No change from Essential Research this week, which also records Malcolm Turnbull dipping into net negative territory on personal approval for the first time.

The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,374 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. From Andrew Probyn May 13

    “The agreement that Bowen negotiated with his Malaysian counterparts would have seen Kuala Lumpur recognise asylum seekers and refugees for the first time. They wouldn’t be “illegal immigrants” like every other non-Malaysian alien without a visa; a step forward for the region.

    But the Malaysian Solution never had a chance. Already humiliated by the people smugglers, Labor was tortured by the Tony Abbott-led coalition.

    THE GREENS moralised with the purity of the impotent and sat on their hands.

    Labor’s dismantling of the Howard government’s Pacific Solution had proved to be an unmitigated disaster by the time Bowen and Gillard proposed the Malaysian people swap in 2011.

    As many as 600 people had already died on Australia’s maritime borders under Labor’s watch by the time Gillard had a second crack at reviving the people swap in June 2012, including about 100 the week before.

    Abbott refused to support the Malaysian Solution, stubbornly insisting Gillard simply reinstate offshore processing, temporary protection visas and boat turn-backs. When Gillard relented on Nauru, Abbott was unmoved. With his political steelcaps on Gillard’s throat, he merely pressed harder.

    A tearful Joe Hockey told Parliament it would be “over my dead body” before he supported a people swap that allowed unaccompanied children to be sent to Malaysia.

    Another 600 would die before the boats were stopped. Twelve hundred people, all up.

    It was odious.

    The sinking of the Malaysian Solution is still bitter among Labor MPs.

    Of the many sour moments in the hung Parliament, for many of the players it is the sourest.

    It confirmed to Labor that it could never win on border protection. It could not out-tough the coalition on boat people, especially a coalition prepared to play as ruthlessly hardball as Abbott.

    LABOR LEARNT THAT IT COULD NOT EVER RELY ON THE GREENS. THE GREENS CONDEMNED LABOR ON CARBON BUT KILLED IT ON BOATS.”

  2. Re ShowsOn @6:36PM: interesting – “throwing a dead cat on the table”. Maybe that’s the table where ‘everything’ used to be – a GST increase, negative gearing, …

    But seriously, the counter strategy would be to call it. So Bill Shorten, when asked to comment, responds “I see Dutton’s thrown another dead cat on the table. This one’s particularly idiotic, not to say offensive, even for Dutton. Now, getting back to Medicare / Health / Education…”

  3. Actually, if he got his facts from Bolt he wasn’t paying attention – it was a few seconds of inadvertently watching Bolt that showed me the statistics quoted were from 2011.

  4. The ALP won today because Dutton et al made it impossible for the Libs to preference the Greens above Labor anywhere.

    Feeney win 60:40 TCP

  5. I am yet to see a critic of Dutton actually rebutt what he actually said in the context he said it, which was criticising the proposed policy to massively increase our intake.
    I doubt most of his critics have even watched the interview.

  6. @Marrickville Mauler- once again a pleasure to see your vile diatribe of insults, when can’t back yourself up. You quote supposed “facts” as you see them. Which I take with a grain of salt!

  7. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 7:07 pm
    MARKJS – I really don’t think that they went racist today because they wanted to (at least this early in the campaign). They did it because their internal polls are stinking up the joint. This was utter desperation. Otherwise, they would have waited to see how the campaign developed. The libs know that if they slip too far in the polls they will slide into open warfare and there is no way back.

    The Liberals will also be worried about bleeding votes to the various RWNJ parties and Pauline Hanson. They need to try and convince waverers to remain with the coalition by “demonstrating” how tough they are on outsiders.

  8. I’m an atheist BB.

    As was my parents

    So… a Godless dole bludger, eh?

    For mine, my paternal ancestors came here in 1838 from British Guiana, after slavery was finally abolished in British Caribbean possessions.

    My maternal ancestors were Irish, arriving in 1851.

    As I have a touch of the tar (in a certain light) and jet black eyes, I assume there was a dalliance somewhere in the dim past between one of the slave-owning Guianan antecedents and a comely slave girl, with the coffee-colored offspring brought into the main house for training in domestic ways.

    When I announced to the Irish half of the family, “We’re black”, you could have heard a pin drop, or an eyelid flutter. A butterfly out in the garden made a racket.

    After the clearing of throats subsided it was decided that I would no longer be invited to the extended family’s High Table, being confined only to the cousins’ accommodations.

    So, being black Irish, I’ve thought long and hard about it, and have decided to be a dole bludger too. And if I see an Australian job I can steal I’ll be in it like a rat up a drainpipe. No-one ever said Bushfire wasn’t a prime chancer.

  9. J
    Bluey did watch the presser. He noted that 90% of the agenda was Liberal. The actual words don’t matter all that much.

  10. Steve,

    Precisely.

    Why play their silly game. Why get bogged down on an area where the language is shrill and the votes are few.

  11. Lizzie, since you asked about Minister for Immigration Peter Dutton’s pedigree, based on his photograph, I would hazard that he has a Chinese grandparent

  12. I just love the spray of exclamation marks. Such pretty things; they should always be used with such abandon.

    Nothing shows class like exuberant exclamation mark usage.

  13. wesley rickard @ #1091 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 7:09 pm

    @Briefly- your concept of bigot astounds me. Suggest you read up the definition of a bigot before you throw that around!!
    I’m fooled by no one thanks! I form my own educated opinion, unlike the left who are easily lead by a populist agenda of misinformation & lies!

    The Duttons of the world succeed by setting people against each other…by encouraging us to fear one another and to mistrust one another. This is to prey on weakness rather than to find our strength. It will only lead to resentment, insult, betrayal and loss. The trouble that Dutton has is that we all basically know this. W’ve learned about it again and again. At best, he’s mistaken. At worst, he’s trying to cheat us. A few unfortunates may heed him. Most of us will decide that we are right – that our experiences of friends and families and our own encounters with the world are to be trusted – and he is not to be trusted.

    Turnbot – in an attempt to impersonate John Howard – tried to make this election about “trust”. Today we have learned we cannot trust him on the foundational matter of our equality and our acceptance of one another. Turnbot has shown he’s weak. But he’s worse than that. He is not merely weak. He is a coward. He has disqualified himself from office.

  14. GG. last time I saw Jobson Growth he was looking more than a tad seedy. I have a feeling the Libs are planning on replacing him with the sub-contractors Laura Norder , Feerfa Yerlife, & Asyle Um Seekas for the rest of the election campaign

  15. lizzie:

    For the last election the Libs were trying to win the seat back off the Nats (until Crook announced his retirement that is), and it was a very different story.

  16. Rod,

    Did you notice the Essential poll didn’t get nearly as excited about the Greens as Morgan this week?

  17. A few previous immigrants have become Billionaires (I thought they were evil?) so that makes taking in massive numbers of refugees all fine.

  18. Jackol
    Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 7:31 pm

    “exuberant exclamation mark usage.”…often used by students when they dont have something to valid say…..then just say it louder

  19. Nothing shows class like exuberant exclamation mark usage.

    Sorry. I was expressively exclaiming. Personally I find nothing says exclamation quite like an exclamation mark, but each to their own. 🙂

  20. I find this wistfulness for the Malaysian Solution among some of the Labor fans completely harebrained.

    Deporting refugees to a human rights abusing country (and one Australia has been known to have to accept refugees *from*) without hope of being resettled anywhere actually safe is the sort of thing I’d normally expect from Scott Morrison. It was *evil*. While I understand why Labor plays politics with refugees, as inhumane as it is, the Malaysian Solution was a momentary lapse of reason, conscience and sanity and that anyone who considers themselves to have more of a conscience than Scott Morrison would defend it is simply bizarre.

    This seems to be a bit of a thing with some Labor partisans when Labor makes an ill-judged wedge attempt that’s just as evil but different to what the Liberals are coming up and rightly appeases no one who actually gives a damn about the issue – and then disinterested Labor hacks whinge for years that people who did give a damn rejected it as unconscionable just because it was a Labor, not Liberal, piece of bastardry.

  21. BB

    As I have a touch of the tar (in a certain light) and jet black eyes, I assume there was a dalliance somewhere in the dim past between one of the slave-owning Guianan antecedents and a comely slave girl, with the coffee-colored offspring brought into the main house for training in domestic ways.

    So, BB, you have less chance of melanoma than I do. My Irish and English forebears moved to Australia for a sunnier lifestyle (this I like) but neglected to protect their offspring by introducing genetic stock that would protect us from local diseases.

    As big a disaster as my first marriage was – all I can say is I was very young, and my mother just loved the full meringue stuff (the big while church wedding) – I was always proud of the fact that my children have a bit more melanin in their skin than I do.

    Actually, as my daughter’s pregnancy revealed, after her testing positive for a blood disorder, her great grandmother was aboriginal.

    Me on the other hand – two very close relatives have had melanoma – I realise I am due for that yearly check-up where they shine a UV light all over my bodyto make sure I do not have the deadly disease.

    I remember the late great Fred Hollows saying that if you wanted to protect yourself from skin cancer, get some melanoma in your skin. The interviewer (George Negus?) said “Do you mean we should marry aboriginal people?” Fred said, “Yes, that would be a good idea”.

  22. GG – I don’t know about winning, but what I’m hearing in Paterson is that Labor can’t go wrong if it keeps talking up its health and education policies, and pointing out the damage the Liberals have done, and will continue to do, to those vital sectors.

  23. Dole-bludging, job-stealing Muzzies aside… I can only echo earlier comments about what’s behind this… they are S.C.A.R.E.D.

    Not a word about the Budget, not a word about Teh Evil CFMEU, or goggle-eyed Carbon mysticism. Why, we haven’t even heard anyone say wind turbines are soooooo ugly!

    Instead they Go The Boat.

    Pah-thet-ick.

    The Turnbull Turn is complete. There he was today, surrounded by butchy boiz in black uniforms, and big ships, really big ones, telling Australia… WTF?… that Billy Shorten was a reffo luvvie. While our brave (but alas, underpaid) heros were repelling all boarders in the tepid, shark-infested waters to the North, the Opposition Leader was back in Campbelltown doing low rent street walks, plotting and scheming to bring brown people here to learn English, take our jobs and go on the Dole… simultaneously!

    Cu=ould anyone NOT vote for Malcolm The Magnificent, Lord Protector Of All He surveys and all-round Generalissimo of the island nation girt by sea after that coup de media?

    Tony Abbott may as well tent up at the Manly Ferry wharf. We don’t need him anymore. Testosterone Turnbull is here to rescue us all.

  24. Yes, congratulations to all current commenters, minus about 4, for ignoring the troll.

    Poor Briefly has been sucked in and is now being engaged by pseudo rational argument.

    Briefly, you are actually not participating in a discussion with a fellow poster who happens to need a bit of edification …… you are just helping a troll to splash crap over the place …..

  25. Blimey; the liberals have gone for the mattress.
    What what is shortens response; Pffft don’t want to have anything to do with it.
    What do the liberals do now; what do they do for the next 6 weeks?

  26. Wesley @7:09PM: …unlike the left who are easily lead by a populist agenda of misinformation & lies!

    Wesley – I think that you’re confusing ‘the left’ with the tranche of voters that is being wooed by the L/NP dog whistle.

  27. I find this wistfulness for the Malaysian Solution among some of the Labor fans completely harebrained.

    I agree. They do the same thing with Kevin Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. The masters of mediocrity create a manifestly inadequate response to a problem, hail it as the best they can do, and then whinge for all time about it not being accepted by people of greater imagination and courage.

  28. Seems the debate between Butler and Hunt on the environment today has been ignored by our pathetic media.

    As has the call by Qld Mayors for the one billion dollars the Federal govt admits it owes but has “deferred” to make the books look better.

  29. Bushfire Bill

    “Not a word about the Budget, not a word about Teh Evil CFMEU,”.
    Didn’t Droog Dutton during the interview about Schrödinger’s Refugees manage to mention the CFMEU ?

  30. frednk @ #1142 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 7:39 pm

    Blimey; the liberals have gone for the mattress.
    What what is shortens response; Pffft don’t want to have anything to do with it.
    What do the liberals do now; what do they do for the next 6 weeks?

    They will double down. It’s all they have left.

    Prepare for things to get nasty.

  31. rod hagen @ #978 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 5:30 pm

    At Freo, the people on the USS General Stuart Heintzelman were transferred to the HMAS Kanimbla, which was the vessel that eventually made it to Port Melbourne. Food & treatment was way better on the Heintzelman, my father in law always said.

    And one of my uncles was a crew member on the Kanimbla. 😀

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