ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling

A poll of Tasmania’s electorates finds the Liberals grimly hanging on in the three seats gained from Labor in 2013, and independent Andrew Wilkie going untroubled in Denison.

Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.

In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,316 comments on “ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling”

Comments Page 22 of 27
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  3. “Adrian
    What is tedious is the Greens’ inability to face the reality that they are closet Turnbull supporters.”

    If so, does endlessly repeating it somehow render it interesting?

  4. Turnbull visits Freo minus local candidate
    19 MINUTES AGOMAY 16, 2016

    Turnbull visits Freo minus local candidate

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has campaigned in the federal seat of Fremantle without the Liberal candidate at his side after the political aspirant’s views about indigenous reconciliation and gay marriage emerged.
    Sherry Sufi reportedly posted musings online – which have since been taken down – about his opposition to the apology to the stolen generation and claiming same-sex marriage will lead to polygamy.
    “I hope he’s out there engaging with the people of Fremantle and doing good door-knocking,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Henderson on Monday when asked why Mr Sufi was not accompanying him.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/turnbull-visits-freo-minus-local-candidate/news-story/017bfc4ed704df65464163c78dbbaff6

  5. Citizen

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has campaigned in the federal seat of Fremantle without the Liberal candidate at his side …

    At this rate, “Team Turnbull” is soon going to be a one-man band!

  6. zoidlord
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:24 pm
    says, ‘LNP are the enemy Not Greens and not Labor.’
    So, why is The Australian devoting enormous space to Di Natale’s threat to force a coalition on Labor?

  7. “At this rate, “Team Turnbull” is soon going to be a one-man band!”

    I thought it was team Abbott and Turnbull

  8. adrian
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:29 pm
    says “Adrian
    What is tedious is the Greens’ inability to face the reality that they are closet Turnbull supporters.”

    If so, does endlessly repeating it somehow render it interesting?”
    Lordy! As if it is up to Labor supporters to make the Greens sound interesting! You guys are just so self-referential that you are wearing out our own navels.

  10. John Symond…typical LNP hypocrete

    “But Mr Symond’s recent statements conflict with what he said during an appearance on the ABC’s Q&A program on November 11, 2013.

    “Negative gearing does need to be looked at in the tax system because I don’t think it’s fair at the moment . It leans very heavily to the high income earners and that needs to be brought into line, as is hundreds of other aspects of the tax system,” he said.

    “Negative gearing wasn’t designed for people who can afford to go and buy $1 million, $2 million, $3 million houses or apartments for negative gearing to offset the bulk of their interest payments off their tax,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-aussie-john-once-positively-against-unfair-negative-gearing-20160516-govzug.html#ixzz48mpNCVcR

    “

  11. The SMH employs as few journalists as possible these days, and gotchas are increasingly replacing analysis. That article was probably written by a younger political correspondent who gets a bonus based on the number of hits his article receives on line.

    I’m pleased to say my wife is getting to the stage where she’s close to agreeing to cancel the SMH subscription.

  12. Labor’s IR spokesman refuses to guarantee weekend penalty rates. Basically saying Shorten is promising what he can’t deliver.

  13. ‘Lordy! As if it is up to Labor supporters to make the Greens sound interesting! You guys are just so self-referential that you are wearing out our own navels.’

    That is not what I mean and you know it, or at least I hope you do.

  14. “Labor’s IR spokesman refuses to guarantee weekend penalty rates. Basically saying Shorten is promising what he can’t deliver.”

    Correction the statement was they will not overrule the FWC. They setup an independent commission to make these decisions and intend to abide by the decision. NOT overrule it like the LNP would like to do

  15. @BW

    Because TheOz = Murdoch !

    And they are affraid of loosing ‘their’ government.

    So spreading rumors, bs, anything goes to fool people into thinking to vote LNP, especially, After Abbott’s ‘plea’ to re-elect…

    Just like DT spreading bullshit about dole bludgers.

    To me, supporters and party leaders need to keep a level head.

  16. Here is something else for the Greens to do Pontius Pilate; an extract from today’s Bernard Keane:

    WHO WON THE DAY?
    Bernard Keane, Crikey politics editor: The more discussion there is about a hung Parliament and working with the Greens, the worse it is for Labor. It increasingly looks like the Greens are deliberately pushing the issue to undermine their primary opponents, and they are likely being successful at that. For swinging voters, the easiest way to deal with the possibility of a return to the Labor-Green union of the Gillard years is to vote Liberal.

  17. El Guapo
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:07 pm
    You will note that there is a distinct difference between individuals private spending and government spending taxpayer dollars. Taxpayers get very good returns on their expenditure on private schools when compared to the spending in the government system.

  18. Why is it controversial to agree to abide by the (hopefully) independent umpire?

    WTF? Why is this more important than the fact that Turnbull’s tax cuts will result in nothing more than a windfall to the US treasury?
    Everyone in the MSM happy with this?

    Dog, I’m getting sick and tired of these double standards from our crap media.

  19. adrian
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:42 pm

    ‘Lordy! As if it is up to Labor supporters to make the Greens sound interesting! You guys are just so self-referential that you are wearing out our own navels.’
    That is not what I mean and you know it, or at least I hope you do.

    LOL. Your comment demonstrates exactly the message I was intended to make. BTW, how is YOUR navel? All gazed out?

  20. Turnbull seems to be campaigning by himself.

    As though he’s every bodies ‘local member’.

    Totally out to lunch!

  22. I am pleased to say that at a BBQ given by Tanya Plibersek last Saturday, there was no mention of the Greens. Tanya was very positive, and told us to just keep talking about Labor’s positive agenda. This is the best way for Labor to deflect Crosby and Textor’s agenda to stir up shit.

  23. zoidlord
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:21 pm
    Cranky,
    The problem with you is you see it as $$$$ value, much like the private sector does.

    According to you Becker was wrong?:

    From Wikipedia:

    Gary Stanley Becker (December 2, 1930 – May 3, 2014)[1] was an American economist and a professor of economics and sociology at the University of Chicago. Described as “the most important social scientist in the past 50 years” by the New York Times,[2] Becker was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1992 and received the United States Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.[3]

    Becker’s research was fundamental in arguing for the augmentability of human capital. When his research was first introduced it was considered very controversial as some considered it debasing. However, he was able to convince many that individuals make choices of investing in human capital based on rational benefits and cost that include a return on investment as well as a cultural aspect.

  24. BW
    What is tedious is the Greens’ inability to face the reality that they are closet Turnbull supporters.

    You do protest too much. RU a closet Greens?

    (

  26. Labor’s IR spokesman refuses to guarantee weekend penalty rates. Basically saying Shorten is promising what he can’t deliver.

    Or, another way you could look at is, is he wants to keep his big business mates on side.

    Political donations from for-profit corporate organisations corrupt.

  27. cud chewer
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:39 pm

    What’s the situation with Fremantle? Is it close?

    Depends – it’s close to East Fremantlle by foot. Electorally the ALP will hose it.

  30. Crank

    A reasonable amelioration of the Sunday and Public Holiday penalty rates to match Saturday would I think be a good outcome.

    The PC found that Sunday and PH penalties were probably too high, but also that Saturday penalties (and night shift penalties) were probably too low.
    One amelioration would be to raise Saturday penalties whilst reducing Sunday penalties, to meet in the middle. It would be interesting if the independent umpire took that approach.

  31. Well thats interesting.

    Would not have expected NXT to stand side with unions on penalty rates.
    MayneReport: Now that @NXT_HQ is on the record opposing any changes to penalties, am not expecting unions to campaign against him https://t.co/CCO1ftJ0mz

  32. It will be interesting to see if the media outlets drag out ” workplace experts ” what angle they take on the penalty rate issue.

    They all will be in a bit of a conundrum. Do they attack Shorten for not legislating or support him for not legislating ?

    Interesting.

  33. Sorry

    Double space meant to be between my text and and tweet so here is tweet alone again.

    MayneReport: Now that @NXT_HQ is on the record opposing any changes to penalties, am not expecting unions to campaign against him https://t.co/CCO1ftJ0mz

  34. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-16/vote-compass-malcolm-turnbull-tony-abbott/7413770

    Australians remain relaxed and comfortable about the Liberal Party’s decision to change prime ministers from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull, Vote Compass data shows.

    Strong support for the change to Mr Turnbull cut across almost every demographic group, including voter intention, age, geography and gender.

    The same three questions were asked in 2013 about the pre-election switch of Labor leader from Julia Gillard back to Kevin Rudd.

    The public’s answers that time were considerably more mixed, although Labor voters strongly backed the move.

  35. Pegasus

    Thats exactly why Labor will win. The public still thinks it got the QandA Leather Jacket Turnbull not today’s sellout.

    Policies will be the LNP undoing as soon as voters focus in the last two weeks.

  37. Guytaur, what X has currently on his party’s web site:

    https://nxt.org.au/whats-nxt/frequently-asked-questions/

    We are NOT anti-penalty rates for nurses, doctors, or any other shift worker, or any employee that works overtime or non-standard hours. There is only one group of employer – small businesses – where we believe the current pay rate on a Sunday is stifling employment. In SA for example, the penalty rate was 150% when 7-day trading commenced. At this time substantially more small businesses chose to open. With penalty rates up to 200% it is cost prohibitive for many small businesses to open and take on extra staff. The NXT position, modified after much consultation, is to support the independent umpire the Fair Work Commission. Click to view our Penalty Rates Policy Principle.

  40. A perfect example of the kind of media coverage Shane Fitzsimmons was getting at the time:

    Blue Mountains fires: ABC plugs climate change angle
    17 October, 2014 by Simon

    “Oh Greg, there’s a fire burning inside me.” “I think you’ll find that climate change made it worse…”

    ?w=300&h=168

    No doubt getting a few hints from her current squeeze, former Labor Climate Change minister Greg Combet, newsreader Juanita Phillips disappointed this particular viewer tonight by stringing up RFS Chief Shane Fitzsimmons like a kipper and leading him down the murky path to politicising the Blue Mountains bush fires.

    https://australianclimatemadness.com/2014/10/17/blue-mountains-fires-abc-plugs-climate-change-angle/

  41. Lol!

    Dennis Jensen MP
    42m42 minutes ago
    Dennis Jensen MP ‏@DennisJensenMP
    #ausvotes So, the big Liberal announcement on jobs in Perth is some shipyard work…in 2020. What about now???

  43. Player One

    At this rate, “Team Turnbull” is soon going to be a one-man band!

    You are about 50 years late with that statement.

    As Malcolm said to whichever poor minion was in the room at the time: “What do you mean ‘there is no I in Team'”…

  44. Caretaker minister takes care of Liberals’ election chances with taxpayer money

    VOTERS might think Justice Minister Michael Keenan would have a firm grasp of the concept of a caretaker government once an election was called.

    However, Mr Keenan is most prominent among ministers stretching the law to its limits after having their authority reduced when Parliament was shut down last Monday.

    Rather than a neutral custodian of his portfolio, he has been energetically rolling his ministerial pork barrel across the country to help Liberal candidates.

    His announcements have been confined to marginal Liberal seats. And a Liberal candidate has been by his side at each at each event.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/caretaker-minister-takes-care-of-liberals-election-chances-with-taxpayer-money/news-story/6dda5c3fec72bfc6da5e7d41546f57c6

  45. Thanks for this link which i just read re X: https://crikey-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2016/05/United-Voice.pdf

    https://crikey-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2016/05/United-Voice.pdf

    I accept I was wrong in my approach. Penalty rates should be left up to the independent
    umpire, the Fair Work Commission, without legislative intervention. Consequently, we
    have changed our position to reflect this and have stated so on our website and in public
    comments. I would be grateful if you could let your members know of the NXT position.

  46. GeorgeBludger: Looking forward to the media going after John Symond for hypocrisy on negative gearing, as they did Storrar. *crickets*

  47. EG Theodore
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 2:00 pm

    I wasn’t aware of that recommendation. Thank you. If FWA brings down a decision everyone is unhappy with then they will probably be pretty right.

  50. @Cranky….

    You are pointing to USA education system, USA Author….. Sounds to me USA has alot to learn.

    Gun shootings on weekly bases, large amount of cases of bullying and discrimination etc.

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