Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.
In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.
G says
‘The Greens and Labor are on the same page on Climate Change
They are on the same page on Health
They are on the same page on Education’
Typical Greens bullshit.
Labor will do something about these issues but the Greens will only ever whistle in the wind, so they cannot possibly be on the same page as Labor.
Crank
You are assuming that the public and private student cohorts are equivalent in terms of the resources required to educate them. This is not the case.
Doyley
Agreed. Saw Shorten earlier today during his presser. He is playing to win!
CC.
“Corporate_Misfit – off you go then – get Shorten to rollout those policies.”
One step at a time. First bust the banks via the RC then work on the rest of crony capitalists
Nice try CC. But after the experience of workchoices Australian workers know that the Liberals will use any ploy they can to whittle away working conditions and entitlements. At the moment the focus is on weekend penalty rates. After that it will be something else. It’s in the Liberal DNA.
Phillip Coorey
Phillip Coorey – Verified account @PhillipCoorey
Report slams National Australia Bank’s risk management http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/report-slams-national-australia-banks-risk-management-20160515-govh0z … via @FinancialReview
Nice try by the ALP on the LNP candidate for Fremantle. It’s hardly assaulting police and not disclosing it. I was in the Army but except to ex-Service People I don’t disclose who my OC or CO were or what units I was in.
Given he hasn’t got a snowballs chance it really doesn’t matter. I wish the Deputy Mayor of Fremantle all the best in his new career.
That’s more to do with WA’s trading laws. There are severe restrictions on trading on Sundays in WA. They only allowed trading on Sundays in the last few years. Prior to that they were complete ghost towns.
I went to the local shopping centre at about 10.30am yesterday morning to find the whole centre was closed. Trading hours 11am to 5pm. Why even bother opening if that’s all that’s allowed.
And that has nothing to do with penalty rates and everything to do with draconian trading laws.
EG Theodore
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 12:32 pm
It’s not going to be significantly different and the over all cost would be in the magnitude of many billions of extra funding required.
Time and time ago we try and suggest what Shorten and the ALP should say and do to defend attacks from the other side, and just about every time, he comes up with the perfect rebuttal. The man is on his game and we just have to trust that he and the ALP have done their homework and have worked out the ideal response in all situations. So far, that seems to be the case.
Got it in one.
Vic
Dr Dick is hard at work doing just that.
His plan is to immolate at the election after this one.
Dan Gulberry,
Yes, the Sunday Trading laws were only recently modified.
And gosh all the claims about disaster and only spreading the one dollar thinner have all been shown to be bollocks.
Went for Dim Sum lunch a few weeks ago – had to drive around looking for a spare spot in the car park in a major shopping center – and we’d been told WA didn’t want Sunday Trading.
The most stupid thing about it is that it is the WA Nationals who are the stumbling block – they allow extended trading in regional centres but not in Perth.
So, is O’Connor on board with the Penalty Rates message now or still ducking and weaving to keep his union mates happy?
Found this in my inbox this morning. Mr Nutt “noticed” I hadn’t contributed. He wants me to help stop “the same old Labor” from coming back.
Might explain why they’re still using the same old slogans.
BW
Its fact that Labor and the Greens follow the science on climate change. The LNP do not thanks to the likes of Abbott and Hunt.
Or are you going to deny this basic fact?
This morning I noticed that you haven’t yet contributed.
test
damn.
how’d you do that, bushfire?
Compact Crank
Of course there are people within the ALP ranks, including ministerial level, who do not agree with the policy on asylum seekers, as a personal opinion, and they voted against it at the National Conference. But they had their say and their vote at the National Conference. The Asylum Seeker policy adopted at that conference is now the ALP policy and all endorsed ALP candidates support that policy, regardless of previous votes or statements. If they do not support they policy they are free to resign or forgo endorsement. These people can continue to try to change policies at the next Conference if they like, but if they want to be ALP candidates then they take the ALP policies to the election. In cabinet they can argue their case for how the policies are implemented and here there is opportunity for debate and influence, but the approach to the issue is guided by the policies taken to the election, unless some situation, such as the GFC, arises. (Obviously a GFC type situation means being agile and innovative to deal with a crisis, which Labor did very well. )
Puff
Fair enough from a party perspective. However voters have shown they don’t buy the argument. For any doubters they proved that when the Greens started winning seats.
So good luck with running a discredited argument.
So does Bjorn Lomborg.
But Lomborg and the Greens are on the same page with global warming: both have no intention of doing anything real about stopping it; both have every intention of profiting from global warming.
BB
I would’ve responded –
“Dear Mr Nutt,
Stick it up your butt.
r
TC”
People considering a vote for the Greens have to consider this:
1. Do they want 100% of nothing?
2. Do they want a Party that will not form government?
3. Will they support a Party that is lying about what Labor might do?
4. Will they support a Party that gets prominent notice in the Murdoch trash cans?
Here we go here we go…
More greens crap. Honestly this site is becoming as boring as the election itself.
If people aren’t crapping on about the greens, they’re responding to CC’s crap.
Perhaps if we had a separate thread for the Green’s discussion…
The endless screeds by the Laborites against the Greens are symptomatic of a lack of confidence in the position of the ALP and a failure to lead from the front. Too reactionary, too ready to allow others to set the agenda. ALP concerns over the Greens should be settled in a handful of sentences before moving on to far more important issues. Anyone would think the Greens were in power and the ALP had to defeat them to form Government.
moksha @ #1018 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 12:51 pm
Using
<code> and </code>Crank, what happened to the first rule of economics that resources and need to be distributed effectively. Elite private schools are massively over-capitalised and taxpayers funds should not be used for such waste. For someone who weeps tears for the perilous state of our finances to be advocating taxpayer funds be wasted on trivialities is indefensible.
Like this:
<code%gt; Text you want to highlight</code%gt;
testhaha thanks
Well, how about like THIS:
<code> Text you want to highlight </code>
In Nutt’s letter it was highlighted in yellow.
Adrian
I support William making a special digital hell hole for Greens to do their illogical, irrational, destructive, wasteful and self-pitying crapping on.
BB – Write back and offer to buy one of the Rolex watches.
What time does Morgan come up normally? I’m impatient.
I don’t see any problem with members of any pary having had views at odds with the finally settled policy platform. In fact I would expect it. Surely PBers do not expect all members of a particular party to think exactly alike, in a hive mind sort of way.
Berating them for these differing views is stupid.
But once the platform is established all members need to abide by that decision until they get to vote at the next conference, where they will again put up a contrary view in the hope that they can persuade their colleagues to change their minds.
What’s wrong with that??
pay = party!
so does pary = party.!!
EL FAT ONE – Totally right. Right now I skip about 3/4ths of PB because I know it’s all about Green/Labor argy-bargy. Yawn.
El Guapo
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 1:04 pm
says, ‘The endless screeds by the Laborites against the Greens are symptomatic of a lack of …’ Greens’ self awareness about the fact that they are playing to the Liberal’s darkest desires. Here is El Guapo, trying to explain the irrational. Why exactly, does El Guapo think that The Australia spends acres of newsprint discussing what the Greens will force Labor to do in a Labor-Greens Coalition Government?
Hint, in case El Guapo still has not figured it out: It is not for the benefit of the Greens.
Labor v Greens v Labor please shut up.
So cute! The dogs that is, and Clementine 🙂
“Why exactly, does El Guapo think that The Australia spends acres of newsprint discussing what the Greens will force Labor to do in a Labor-Greens Coalition Government?
Hint, in case El Guapo still has not figured it out: It is not for the benefit of the Greens.”
Because they believe there is a perception among the voting community that Greens-Labor is a thing and they are trying to harm the ALP. The real question is why you and others are reinforcing this view by banging on endlessly and to the exclusion of a hundred positives for the ALP? If the Greens are harming the ALP why are you keeping the issue bubbling away? Why are you so reactive to the Greens rather than helping to set the ALP agenda?
Autocrat
Come on down.
Have you an army to enforce your decree?
Cranky,
The problem with you is you see it as $$$$ value, much like the private sector does.
Education is key for knowledge and employment… Not something you put a pretty face or a doller value on…..
Well said El Guapo. It certainly is symptomatic of a defensive, reactive mindset, and apart from that, bloody tedious.
Adrian
What is tedious is the Greens’ inability to face the reality that they are closet Turnbull supporters.
“and Clementine”
Well there you go, my daughter Clementine was born a few days after Bill’s.
LNP are the enemy Not Greens and not Labor.
I just chipped in $5 to the Labor Campaign Fund instead. 😀
“and apart from that, bloody tedious.”
Diabolically so.