The only new poll this week was the weekly Essential Research, owing to the poll glut last week and the Anzac Day public holiday on Monday. The Essential result was an eye-opener, with the normally sedate series lurching two points in favour of Labor, who have opened up a 52-48 lead. The primary votes are Coalition 40% (down two), Labor 39% (up three) and Greens 10% (down one). Other questions found 40% approving of a double dissolution election, up one from two weeks ago, with opposition up four to 28%; 42% expecting the Coalition to win compared with 28% for Labor; 35% saying Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership has made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 23% for less likely; and 67% saying they would view their vote as one in favour of the party they supported, compared with 21% saying it would be against the party they opposed. On next week’s budget, respondents anticipated it would be good for business and the well off, bad for everyone else, and neutral for the economy overall. The poll also found that 45% would sooner see Helen Clark as secretary-general of the United Nations compared with 21% for Kevin Rudd.
Single Essential Research results tend not to knock the BludgerTrack poll aggregate off its axis, but this result was forceful enough to drive a half-point shift on two-party preferred, which tips the balance in favour of Labor. However, the gains from last week to this have tended to be concentrated in states where they are of little use to Labor on the seat projection, which only ticks one point in their favour through a gain in New South Wales, leaving the Coalition with the barest possible absolute majority. That would be a little less bare if I started crediting Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax as a Liberal National Party gain, which I really should have been doing since a Galaxy poll of the seat in January credited Palmer with 2% of the vote. I’ll implement that one next week. Nothing new this week on the leadership ratings.
Other news:
• The WA Liberal Party’s state council has endorsed Matt O’Sullivan as the party’s candidate for the new seat of Burt in the southern suburbs of Perth, formalising its overturning of a local party ballot three weeks ago. O’Sullivan is closely identified with mining magnate Andrew Forrest, as the chief operating officer of his GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme. The earlier ballot was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor who had backing from the Christian Right. Storer defeated O’Sullivan with 13 votes out of an eligible 25, but the state council ruled three weeks ago that the number of preselectors was insufficient, and that it would take matters into its own hands.
• The Central Western Daily lists four candidates for Saturday’s Nationals preselection in the rural New South Wales seat of Calare, to be vacated at the election by John Cobb: Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange; Alison Conn, a Wellington councillor; Sam Farraway, owner of the Hertz franchise in Bathurst; and Scott Munro, a butcher and Orange councillor.
• The Blue Mountains Gazette last week reported that a ReachTEL poll conducted on April 19 for the NSW Teachers Federation had Liberal and Labor tied in the Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie, which Louise Markus holds for the Liberals on a margin of 4.5%. Markus has secured the Liberal preselection for the seat after the withdrawal of a challenge by Sarah Richards, a local party branch president.
• It escaped my notice four weeks ago that The Australian had ReachTEL results commissioned by the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union from the Liberal-held Adelaide seats of Hindmarsh and Sturt. Results in the report are incomplete, but they appear to credit Christopher Pyne with a 5% margin in Sturt, down from 10.1% at the 2013 election, and also have the Liberals leading in the difficult seat of Hindmarsh. Only modest support was recorded for the Nick Xenophon Team, at 14.5% and 11% before exclusion of the undecided. A good deal has happened in the month since the poll was conducted, with Coalition support continuing to plummet nationally, and the government this week seeking to staunch the flow in South Australia specifically by committing to have the $52 billion submarine construction project built in the state. I have also obtained ReachTEL polling conducted early last month for The Australia Institute, which has the Nick Xenophon Team’s support in South Australia at 16.1% in the House of Representatives and 24.8% in the Senate – keeping in mind that polls like this have form in overstating the distinctions between House and Senate results (or at least, they did before the Senate vote went haywire in 2013). There are also Queensland results inclusive of the parties of Clive Palmer, Glen Lazarus, Nick Xenophon and Jacqui Lambie, which have their Senate support ranging from 1.6% (Lambie) to 3.4% (Xenophon).
The SA government reporting of this major rail power failure in Adelaide yesterday is not believable. The line is only two years old, and it was not hot weather or a time of peak demand. Either the power supply was not built correctly, or there was a major human error in operations or maintenance.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-28/delays-on-seaford-line-to-continue-into-the-night/7367698
Plus, how can you not know the cause of a fault and still fix it? Answer: you are trying to avoid admitting the cause. I smell human error. I realise everyone needs a job, but SA has a regrettable track record of putting poorly qualified people in charge of systems, and not enforcing adequate standards of professional development on them. Some whole sections do not even have staff training budgets.
Morning all,
Well, that was interesting. I just heard an interview with ANU International and Constitutional Law Professor Don Rothwell about the Manus Island stand-off and, he says, from the purely legal perspective, Peter Dutton is correct! The asylum seekers and refugees on Manus Island ARE PNG’s responsibility, not Australia’s!
He said that International Treaty Law trumps Sovereign Constitutional Law, and so the MOU that Australia signed with PNG has legal precedence over the PNG Constitution.
Morally and ethically though, different question. As Marius Benson pointed out, Australia has a $1.5 Trillion Economy and PNG has a $20 Billion one, so who really should be morally-obligated here to shoulder the responsibility?
Also, Professor Rothwell made a good point. He said that, as of this time next week the government will most likely be in Caretaker Mode and so a resolution to this issue would need to be made by then, or Labor will have to be dealt into the process. Though I don’t think that will be such a great problem, with Labor no doubt wanting to see a quick resolution to this bugbear issue.
Socrates
Socrates
The Quote you want. To close same as the first bit except with a / after the <
.
In case the above indents …….. Less than symbol followed by the word blockquote followed by the greater than symbol. Put in the stuff you want . To close, same as the first bit except put a / after the less than symbol.
It will be interesting to see whether the states will lose all control over what projects are given the go ahead for federal funding into the future under the Turnbull plan.
It seems to me on the surface that Turnbull intends to privatise infrastructure delivery in this country, push the states aside and only offer funds for those protects deemed ” worthy” by a panel of private sector money men.
Ir will be all big words today so we shall have to wait to get the nitty gritty on what it actually involves.
Cheers.
Poroti
Thanks, though that will be a pain on the iPad.
I can’t believe this is true in general.
It may be true in the specific case of PNG, depending on what their constitution says.
In our constitution the Federal government gains certain powers to legislate based on what international treaties are signed, but there’s no way that those treaties would “trump” our constitution, and it wouldn’t be true in PNG either.
Doyley
It will be a Spivs picnic . All those lovely property development opportunitues etc.
Doyley
Turnbull is deluded if he thinks he can cut the states out of infrastructure delivery. Most big projects need land acquisition using State powers. LRT in an existing corridor would be about the only exception.
Speaking of spivs, it is high time chiropractors started being prosecuted when they cause harm. This case sounds like one where police should be involved.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/doctors-at-war-with-chiropractors-over-treatment-of-babies-and-children-20160428-gohlc9.html
http://www.danielbowen.com/2016/04/29/state-budget-2016/
Daniel Bowen lists transport upgrades allocated in this year’s Victorian state budget.
Interested to see Labor’s response to the productivity commission geoblocking statement. Vote 1 ALP for US Netflix access perhaps?
I wonder what movie or series this is in reference to.
Is justice finally approaching for Peter Slipper’s accusers? After the election, I bet.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-29/police-ramp-up-investigation-into-copying-of-peter-slipper-diary/7368154
Morning all
Soon to be retired Anna Burke was on RN this morning………
Stephanie Anderson @stephanieando
Burke: Myself, Melissa Parke and many others have actually been calling for a long time to close down the centres #auspol
Stephanie Anderson
6m6 minutes ago
Stephanie Anderson @stephanieando
Former Labor speaker Anna Burke has been on air with @RNBreakfast slamming the government over its treatment of the Manus Island detainees
RN Breakfast
12m12 minutes ago
RN Breakfast @RNBreakfast
“I opposed @AustralianLabor’s policy to re-open the detention centres in Manus Island and Nauru,” fmr Speaker Anna Burke
Ah, Cities of the Future – the political equivalent of standing in a meadow and watching clouds pass by. Gets even worse when Malcolm talks about “value capture”. What he’s really talking about is a huge slush-fund for his mates.
Great to see Dave Oliver brand Marn a “class traitor” in the Oz.
Socrates
Re the Slipper matter. I heard a report on same at 7 am ABC newsbreak.
Was actually quite surprised that the ABC was reporting on it. Usually they are the last out of the blocks on this particular matter
Surely if all services are to be within 30 minutes travel time, the services themselves have to be increased in regions. Or are we (gasp!) only referring to large cities? Principle still holds.
catmomma
It its unconstitutional then that means any agreement made by a government is null and void as the assumption it was legal is made null and void.
No trumping there. Your expert is wrong on that.
And I am surprised that the AFP need to apply to the fed court to ask permission to use texts as used in civil case. Why would they need to do that? Evidence is evidence no matter the source
K17
Yep the 30 minute cities spiel, sounds like pissing in the wind
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Stephanie Anderson
4m4 minutes ago
Stephanie Anderson @stephanieando
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is in Melbourne today and will launch his cities policy ( http://ab.co/21i4NLt ) at 9am #auspol #ausvotes
Re C@t @7:36AM: He said that International Treaty Law trumps Sovereign Constitutional Law
Maybe, but I don’t believe anything that Dutton says unless corroberated by a reliable source. Like the rest of the Abbott-Turnbull ministery, he will say whatever supports his position, regardless of truth or consistency with other positions he may have previously stated.
Golf crap for Turnbull. His cities policy announcement is a 50 million dollar down payment etc. And the metro rail project is being cited. For goodness sake. He does know that the state vic govt have already allocated full funding of same.
Turnbull shouldnt even bother coming to Melbourne.
guytaur @ Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:14 am
guytaur,
The conversation is not up on the Newsradio website yet but when it is I will put up the link.
Basically Prof Rothwell was stating International Treaties supercede national Constitutional law. Though governments generally only recognise it when it suits them to.
victoria
This ‘innovative’ cities policy reads to me like the development nodes proposed several times in the past (usually by Labor, I think), but with added profits for private developers and transport corporates.
Steve 777,
The interview had nothing to do with Dutton except to examine his statement that Manus Is was PNG’s responsibility not Australia’s and Prof Rothwell said that technically, under the law, that is correct and it would also be in the MOU fine print somewhere.
Is a shudder going through Canberra this morning?
Doyley has grasped the basic conundrum for the LNP
The AS resettlement issue is making the government look out of control. Barrie Cassidy on the Project last night laid the boot into Labor for setting up an illegal camp in the first place. (I disagree with his contention. Labor bargained in good faith)
A lot of the denial we are seeing is the denial of the very hard brick wall that the PNG Supreme Court decision is.
Lots of talk about getting around the decision by commentators who do not respect the sovereignty of another nation. They think we still have the same say we used to have as colonists.
The truth is simple. Manus is dead as an option. Australia can say we will not resettle AS here all it likes. However this does not mean Australia can control where the AS go. The AS are free under the decision of the PNG court.
The PNG government is in breach of their law every second they keep the gates of the centre closed and prevent the AS from travelling to the airport or boats to Torres Straight.
This simple fact is being lost in the where do we put these 800 men now?
Where PNG does have responsibility is simple. Like if Australia’s High Court had made a ruling the PNG government is obligated to act on it immediately. Thats the word the court used. Not next week not in due time but immediately.
All Australia can do is decide accept or reject arrival of AS. Just as it can with any arrival on our shores. Australia cannot stop the AS going to any other country. Including NZ.
In fact to give him his due Dutton does say they are welcome to move to a third country. So how long before NZ enters the picture in this as refugee advocates talk to the AS about their rights and options?
Its all out of control and Labor is correct to attack the LNP on this. The policy is unravelling and the LNP is dithering around denying the reality of a court decision in a sovereign nation along with the right wing media.
Due to that denial this is going to get very messy and could see relations with PNG go right in the toilet with flow on consequences to relations with pacific neighbours given Australia’s behaviour over Timor Leste Indonesia etc with this LNP government.
The deafening silence of the Foreign Minister is very telling about how out of control of the LNP this Manus Supreme Court decision by PNG has made things.
I do wish former NSW State Labor politicians like David Borger wouldn’t be quite so enthusiastic about Coalition ideas:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-29/government-to-allocate-50-million-for-infrastructure-projects/7369386
In these agile, innovative , value capturing cities for the 21st century is it 30 minutes by car or 30 minutes by Bronniecopter ?
JBishop is definitely being very shy of late.
C@tmomma
Is this $50m being provided to make Infrastructure Australia redundant perhaps?
lizzie
Turnbull should merely announce that the feds will contribute funding to the metro rail link. the rest will just be superfluous drivel
The duplicity of Kelly O’Bigmouth, courtesy of Albanese.
Talk later bludgers……
Darn
About coral reefs.
1. The world has lost a huge percentage of its coral already. The drivers are nearly all anthropogenic and include sunscreen. So we are talking about the ongoing survival of what is left.
2. Under some circumstances coral will regenerate. Under other circumstances it will not. For example, where a reef has been turned into coral rubble (usually by explosives but sometimes by cyclones), regeneration is usually low, slow or non-existent. The reason is that coral propagules need a solid surface, not something that roils with the tides and the waves.
3. There are biodiversity relationships that are poorly understood. For example, there are coral-eating fish and there are algae-eating fish. If all the coral dies in a bleaching event then the coral-eating fish get a hammering. So do their parasites and predators. What are the relationship between regenerating corals and coral-eating fish populations? We have no idea. The variations are endless. For example, what if corals do not die but their growth rates are reduced? We do not know.
4. Another vital element is whether non-coralline algae colonises dead algae substrates. Where this happens, coral propagules cannot regenerate dead coral.
5. Sea level rises will change all edaphic regimes that affect coral: water depth, water temperature, currents. We have no idea about whether reefs will be able to keep pace with rising sea levels.
6. Sleeper weeds are weeds that are present in the landscape doing nothing much until there is some change in the environment and the weeds go feral in a huge way. The Crown of Thorns is probably analogous to a sleeper weed. We have no idea what other sleepers lurk amongst the coral.
7. The impact of bleaching events four three critical elements: the size of the temperature anomaly, the distribution of the event, the length of the event and the interval between individual events. All four elements are on a worsening trend. It is useful to think of what is happening on the Reef as a start, not as the end-state.
8. Recovery rate studies show a wide variations in outcomes. Not one that I am aware of show 100% recovery of bleached reefs within 10 years. The intervals between mass bleaching events is already less than ten years. The implication is fairly obvious – even under the current regimes the coral is in a trend decline.
9. There are many coral species, each with an associated assemblage of micro- and macro- species. The short term impact of global warming drivers will be to kill off heat-intolerant, slow-growing and slow-breeding rate corals and replace them with existing species that are heat tolerant, fast-growing and fast breeding corals. So the Reef has some potential for biotic resilience. But this will only be temporary. (Naturally this will be accompanied by a wave or extinctions or near-extinctions of certain coral assemblages.)
10. Further, in the short term, replacing large numbers of coral species with a few species will simplify the Reef’s biodiversity, rendering it less resilient to other drivers such as sleeper pests.
11. There are non-coralline animals that might form considerable external drivers to the fate of the corals. These can be unexpected. For example, parts of the Indian Ocean have lost up to 40% of phyto-plankton. (Phyto-plankton generate half of Earth’s oxygen). One result is that the waters are more clear. This should potentially foster coral growth at lower depths.
12. I have not mentioned acidification. This will not help! In fact the long term trend is for this to have a smashing impact on the Reef all by itself. Shelled creatures are already showing deleterious impacts.
13. Longer term it is difficult to see the Reef surviving current trends.
14. There was a previous Great Barrier Reef when water levels were much lower. It is now a fossil reef.
A good cities policy would include —
* decentralisation, encouraging both private and public enterprises to base themselves outside major cities;
* major spending initiatives to improve services in regional centres, so that moving to them meets the ‘no disadvantage’ test (this would include access to the arts, sporting events, entertainment;
* a world class NBN;
* incentives to encourage employers to allow workers to work from home;
* restrictions on cars in CBDs – either an outright ban, a permit system or a toll;
* massive investment in public transport, with shuttle services running from railway stations on the edge of the metro area, and at least fast train services operating from regional centres;
* protection and expansion of green areas (shown to be crucial for mental wellbeing for city dwellers), including green zones at the city edge;
* a cultural change – coupled with improved building standards – to make high rise apartment living more acceptable.
I doubt Turnbull will tick many of those boxes.
catmomma
Professor Rothwell is wrong. A government cannot negotiate against the constitution that is the basis of its form of government. No constitution no government.
A good example of this can be seen with Hunt not making a treaty with Saudi Arabia to overturn the constitutional right of states to approve coal mines. IF they had done that the Adani coal mine would have gone ahead while Newman was still premier.
These people should be careful. Forcing the PNG government to assert its sovereignty by saying they don’t have any will end PNG cooperation with an orderly transfer of detainees real quick as the local politics makes obstruction more politically palatable than cooperation for O’Neill as the locals react to being told their court does not matter.
political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp is in Melbourne & will join Catherine King at Melbourne Pathology Lab to discuss Medicare, 10:30am #auspol
political_alert: Greens MP @AdamBandt & Senator Peter Whish-Wilson will launch the Greens’ infrastructure financing package at 10:45am, Melbourne #auspol
Let’s take Labor’s ideas and develop them in a way that benefits out donors.
OK, I just heard Prof Rothwell again on Newsradio. His exact words were:
“Constitutional Law does not void a Treaty Arrangement.”
catmomma
It does not matter how he says it he is still wrong. Constitutional law does void a treaty agreement.
The government made an illegal treaty. The treaty is void. That is what it means.
If the professor was correct then there would be no talk of shutting manus down due to the Court decision.
Its that black and white.
Boerwar
I can only sigh at the tragedy. As Gillian Triggs said, it is hardly worth the effort to talk to our uneducated MPs.
zoomster
Quite so.
I notice that the Greens and Labor are ‘joining’ Mal in Melboure this morning. What a party!
Another flick pass of taxpayer money to a former Liberal politician:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-29/nuclear-waste-dump-expected-south-australian-cattle-station/7369346
the merde
Why would NZ take the Manus refugees?
There is nothing in it for them in helping Australia and PNG out of their pickle.
Don’t forget that Manus wouldn’t have been set up if the Greens had sided with Gillard over the Malaysia plan.
should read
the merde has hit the blades
zoomster
I doubt Turnbull will tick many of those boxes.
He only wants to tick one box. The one marked, ‘Will it benefit my mates and party donors?’