ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

The Seven Network has a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Queensland which reflects other polling in showing the two major parties little changed on the primary vote since the election last January, with Labor on 36.9% (compared with 37.5% at the election) and the Liberal National Party on 42.8% (41.3%), but with the Greens gaining a little to record 10.8% (8.4%). With the state’s reversion to compulsory preferential voting, ReachTEL has published a respondent-allocated preferences result which is quite a bit less good for Labor than the election result, with the LNP leading 52-48 compared with an election result of 51.1-48.9 in favour of Labor. A result based on the now-impossible behaviour of preferences last year would have had Labor slightly in front, suggesting the change might not be as advantageous to Labor as was assumed.

In spite of everything, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk records better personal ratings than Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg, with a 37.0% combined very good and good rating and a 34.6% combined poor and very poor rating, versus 22.9% and 33.3% respectively for Springborg. The poll also finds that both of last week’s electoral reform were unpopular, particularly in the case of compulsory preferential voting, which was supported by 27.3% and opposed by 61.6%. The increase in parliamentary numbers from 89 to 93 was supported by 33.2% and opposed by 42.1%. The poll was conducted Tuesday evening from a sample of 1281.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe