The only new poll this week was the weekly Essential Research, owing to the poll glut last week and the Anzac Day public holiday on Monday. The Essential result was an eye-opener, with the normally sedate series lurching two points in favour of Labor, who have opened up a 52-48 lead. The primary votes are Coalition 40% (down two), Labor 39% (up three) and Greens 10% (down one). Other questions found 40% approving of a double dissolution election, up one from two weeks ago, with opposition up four to 28%; 42% expecting the Coalition to win compared with 28% for Labor; 35% saying Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership has made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 23% for less likely; and 67% saying they would view their vote as one in favour of the party they supported, compared with 21% saying it would be against the party they opposed. On next week’s budget, respondents anticipated it would be good for business and the well off, bad for everyone else, and neutral for the economy overall. The poll also found that 45% would sooner see Helen Clark as secretary-general of the United Nations compared with 21% for Kevin Rudd.
Single Essential Research results tend not to knock the BludgerTrack poll aggregate off its axis, but this result was forceful enough to drive a half-point shift on two-party preferred, which tips the balance in favour of Labor. However, the gains from last week to this have tended to be concentrated in states where they are of little use to Labor on the seat projection, which only ticks one point in their favour through a gain in New South Wales, leaving the Coalition with the barest possible absolute majority. That would be a little less bare if I started crediting Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax as a Liberal National Party gain, which I really should have been doing since a Galaxy poll of the seat in January credited Palmer with 2% of the vote. I’ll implement that one next week. Nothing new this week on the leadership ratings.
Other news:
• The WA Liberal Party’s state council has endorsed Matt O’Sullivan as the party’s candidate for the new seat of Burt in the southern suburbs of Perth, formalising its overturning of a local party ballot three weeks ago. O’Sullivan is closely identified with mining magnate Andrew Forrest, as the chief operating officer of his GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme. The earlier ballot was won by Liz Storer, a Gosnells councillor who had backing from the Christian Right. Storer defeated O’Sullivan with 13 votes out of an eligible 25, but the state council ruled three weeks ago that the number of preselectors was insufficient, and that it would take matters into its own hands.
• The Central Western Daily lists four candidates for Saturday’s Nationals preselection in the rural New South Wales seat of Calare, to be vacated at the election by John Cobb: Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange; Alison Conn, a Wellington councillor; Sam Farraway, owner of the Hertz franchise in Bathurst; and Scott Munro, a butcher and Orange councillor.
• The Blue Mountains Gazette last week reported that a ReachTEL poll conducted on April 19 for the NSW Teachers Federation had Liberal and Labor tied in the Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie, which Louise Markus holds for the Liberals on a margin of 4.5%. Markus has secured the Liberal preselection for the seat after the withdrawal of a challenge by Sarah Richards, a local party branch president.
• It escaped my notice four weeks ago that The Australian had ReachTEL results commissioned by the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union from the Liberal-held Adelaide seats of Hindmarsh and Sturt. Results in the report are incomplete, but they appear to credit Christopher Pyne with a 5% margin in Sturt, down from 10.1% at the 2013 election, and also have the Liberals leading in the difficult seat of Hindmarsh. Only modest support was recorded for the Nick Xenophon Team, at 14.5% and 11% before exclusion of the undecided. A good deal has happened in the month since the poll was conducted, with Coalition support continuing to plummet nationally, and the government this week seeking to staunch the flow in South Australia specifically by committing to have the $52 billion submarine construction project built in the state. I have also obtained ReachTEL polling conducted early last month for The Australia Institute, which has the Nick Xenophon Team’s support in South Australia at 16.1% in the House of Representatives and 24.8% in the Senate – keeping in mind that polls like this have form in overstating the distinctions between House and Senate results (or at least, they did before the Senate vote went haywire in 2013). There are also Queensland results inclusive of the parties of Clive Palmer, Glen Lazarus, Nick Xenophon and Jacqui Lambie, which have their Senate support ranging from 1.6% (Lambie) to 3.4% (Xenophon).
Puff
NZ has said it will accept 300 of the refugees. Labor rightly pointed this out when it was talking about the cost of sending them to Cambodia at about $25 million per refugee.
guytaur,
Do you have a Law degree?
Puff
Also NZ has no excise legislation for AS arriving on its shores.
catmomma
Its fairly obvious that the Manus Detention Centre is being shut down due to court decision. That means constitutional law trumps treaty. I do not have to have a law degree to see that.
guytaur
I’m as delighted as anyone that the Coalition has been landed with this mess, but that doesn’t preclude looking at the situation objectively.
There was an agreement made between New Guinea and Australia, which has been found illegal under PNG’s law.
In other words, it was the PNG government who breached their Constitution, not Australia – so the PNG government’s actions have been found to be illegal, not Australia’s (however reprehensible they might be).
I would think it is thus a fair reading of the law to say that the problem is thus New Guinea’s to fix.
gabriellechan: Does Australia need a federal #Icac ? @Ageinvestigates thinks so. See evidence 4 and agin. https://t.co/xsHtJSIIPZ https://t.co/tEw4YuKybc
zoomster
Yes all the consequences from the PNG government breaching its constitution are its responsibility.
However there is a lot of spin going on here. I am not disputing PNG has responsibility for its decisions. Yes the PNG government is responsible for its part in illegally detaining people.
I am just objecting to the point that treaty trumps court decision. If thats the basis for the argument it fails.
What it means is that PNG may not have the ability to be able to fulfil the agreement it made with Australia. PNG does not have the authority to tell the As where to go as they are free from the court decision.
Thats where the MRU breaks down it was based on facts we now know to be false.
That means that Australia’s signing of the refugee treaty overrides any laws passed in Australia to detain asylum seekers who come here by boat.
AshGhebranious: Point to note people. Not even the Greens are saying bring all 850+ men in Manus to Australia. The want non refugees returned #auspol
If this cities thing is a goer, I think Turnbull deserves some credit for finding a way to work around his party’s fixation with living in the past.
Turnbull presser now.
michaelkoziol: Turnbull is so in his element right now he’s literally bouncing behind the podium #cities
Why is Labor not offering to set up a Federal ICAC? It would gain them a huge boost. Not doing so leaves the impression that they have something to hide. The LNP don’t bother to hide their corruption, just acting as if it is of no concern.
lizzie @ Friday, April 29, 2016 at 8:39 am
It may be duplicitous, but it has always seemed strange to me that there was no provision for an interchange between the metro and other lines at South Yarra.
For some good, straightforward, legal commentary on the manus situation try https://auspublaw.org/2016/04/pngs-supreme-court-and-manus-island/
Haha now Turnbull arguing Labor’s case for increased Housing supply that negative gearing is part of addressing
abcnews: #BREAKING: Nurofens maker Reckitt Benckiser has been fined $1.7 million for breaching consumer laws over “specific pain range”.
Zoom, i agree on a “technical” level. However, i think we have to acknowledge it was not an agreement between equals and there is very likely to have been coercion involved.
Also, i would like to know IF Australia had any responsibilities as far as finding 3rd country resettlement places under the MOU that we may not have lived up to??
And overall, i do NOT like to see diplomatic relations with important neighbors trashed over something like AS.
We should be getting the people out of Manus asap.
Short term…..
Send as many from Nauru as NZ will take to NZ will take.
Send the Manus detainees to Xmas, Nauru, and even mainland detention (Tassie).
Mid Term……will take an ALP win to make happen….
Regional. Something like the Malaysia deal but needs to be in place before any possible transit flow builds up.
Oh, and stop it with this bullshit of sending Kiwi’s to NZ for petty stuff. 🙁
You’ll find another informative legal piece on the Manus situation on our blog at https://castancentre.com/2016/04/27/the-end-of-offshore-detention/
From the scrap book of forgetfulness and they-would-say-that-wouldn’t-they….
Editorial in the venerable West was a one-page whinge that while Shorten was agreeing with everything Turnbull was saying re the AS on Manus that he, Shorten, should also be “part of the solution”. The editorial then went on to say that as Shorten may well be PM in a few weeks, he had an obligation to come up with some solutions for problems partly created by Labor.
My thoughts went immediately as to how often the West made this call to the Coalition when Labor was in office – like hardly ever….never?
When the Coalition was merrily bashing Labor over “the drownings et al” the West was largely quiet or putting the responsibility in Labor’s corner.
Rod Hagen
Thank you for that.
CloverMoore: Disturbing no climate policy in Fed #smartcitiesplan. Cities responsible for 80% of emissions & our greatest opportunity for action.
CloverMoore: Joining @joeobrien24 @abcnews24 shortly to discuss PM’s #smartcitiesplan announcement
Socrates the outage on the Seaford line is due to a fire at the Lonsdsle electricity sub-station
Yes, the ALP needs to back a Federal ICAC.
labor is travelling well right now but dont forget the LNP scare campaign over Shorto and TEH UNIONZ hasnt really started yet.
Youll need something in place at that point.
abcnews: #ManusIsland detention: Federal Government in talks with #NewZealand over future of detainees https://t.co/n4aS5AiTsN
I went out this morning to collect my emptied rubbish bin, and it had vanished. The gentleman at the Shire office said it was a ‘common occurrence’ and said a new one would be delivered.
I’m just wondering how much these thefts are costing ratepayers each year.
So Gov running to NZ after all.
NZ should tell Mal and LNP to bugger off we gave you plenty of chances but now we dont want your responsibility.
Is it not a fact that the asylum seekers that NZ has offered to take will be included in that countries pathetically low intake of 750 asylum seekers per year?
If so those 150 or 300 asylum seekers will just be taking a spot already allocated by the NZ government.
Not one extra refugee will be helped.
They will simply be taking a spot that could of been filled by a child languishing in a refugee camp anywhere around the world.
If that is true then I do not understand why NZ is being held up as some sort of example for Australia to follow.
Why are the open borders advocates and social justice warriors praising the hard right govt and the NZ PM as humanitarian examples?
Infact NZ probably see it as some sort of budget saving because they will not have to spend any money vetting these asylum seekers as surely the ones sent there would already have had their refugee status established.
Perhaps if NZ really did care about the refugees they could increase their extremely low annual intake from a paltry 750.
Tricot,
What labor should do is demand that they be included in the negotiations with the PNG officials flying into Canberra next week.
Labor is the alternative government and they should have equal access to negotiations with the PNG officials and also with Australian departmental officials to be presented with the full facts and options canvassed.
Anything less should not be accepted and Bill Shorten should make this clear and plain to Turnbull.
A bipartisan solution is what we are seeking but we need to be part of the process and we need full access to all the detail should be strongly pushed by labor.
Cheers.
Clover Moore endorsing Mal’s ‘new’ brainwave.
Rod
[There is a strong argument that Australia would be legally responsible for such harm. The light of these facts I believe there is no other choice than for the Australian government changed its position and transfer all asylum seekers and refugees to Australia.]
An unspecified strong argument suddenly becomes an immutable fact demanding a set course of action.
When asked for a practical example, Clover suddenly begins to stammer.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33431
Guytaur – You’d have to read the PNG constitution. It may well be, for instance, that the approval of the PNG parliament was required, and that didn’t happen! etc etc.
Rothwell may be right. If a treaty is made under the external affairs power in our constitution, it does not matter if it conflicts with other parts of the constitution.
That campaign is dead in the water already. It’s like a dream. You wake up and think you remember what it was about. You might even try to remember it, if it was a pleasant dream. But reality crowds out your recollection and the dream evaporates.
It’s the same with all their other ideas and scares. They are yesterday’s tactics. There’s too much evidence now that climate Change is real and needs urgent addressing. Neg Gearing is a blight on first home buyers.
Even The West is editorializing, factoring in a Shorten win as a distinct possibility.
The journos are even coming around. Sure there are a few holdouts, and the routine dismissals of Shorten as unelectable are still uttered, but they’re getting fainter by the day.
Winning the 2016 election by using the scare tactics of 2013, or even 2010, continuing to blame Labor for everything, bashing unions and bringing up Climate Change boogey-men won’t work as well, or at all, this time.
It’s getting close to the time when the public stop listening to the Liberals, no matter how many “Turnbull Loves Sydney’s West” stories they run. There have been too many spruiks, lies and stunts for any of it to be taken too seriously. you get the feeling they’re just going through the motions: the odd bribe, the ad campaigns (that no-one believes), the bragging about deficit busting and lowering taxes. Pffft! All gone up in smoke, incinerated in the fireplace of their own vanity.
In short: they took the public for granted, they underestimated their enemy and they very close now to blowing it entirely. Nothing seems to go right for them. Even Manus Island is a curse. If they become regarded as losers, they’re finished.
And what if they win? Turnbull at the head of a fractious party seeded with his internal foes… except a higher concentration of them to worry and harass him. as the moderate marginal seat holders lose their places. That sounds like instability to me.
The whole vibe around at the moment is that they’ll lose. Once that really catches on, they will.
K17
Read the articles in the links provided by Rod Hagen.
Goes some way to answering your question
Meh. The Tele’s turned her into the Cloverfield Monster already. Too late for Clover to be taken seriously.
Further to my comment I will say that I hope for these refugees sake that they do get to go to NZ.
They clearly will never be allowed into Australia and should not be languishing for years in Nauru or Manus.
However I will not join in the misguided praise of a NZ govt who are receiving kudos from well intentioned but misguided people for their offer to take a few hundred refugees as part of what is a shamefully low annual intake of just 750 people.
If it’s an Otto bin, it’s probably in your neighbour’s yard by mistake.
I’ve got all the serial numbers of ours fromthe Council records. Every few months I round them up from around our little valley here. It’s almost a tradition.
catmomma
We already know at least once People Smugglers have tried to send a boat to NZ but were intercepted by the Australian Navy.
Using PNG as a transit point would mean that route opens to the people smugglers.
Whatever response NZ makes will not be in the control of the Australian government.
This is why the mention of NZ because once the AS become accepted refugees and thus NZ citizens then the how do the Australian government stop the migration from NZ to Australia?
Thats not holding NZ to be a paragon. Just recognising a reality.
bushfire
What’s an Otto bin?
In thirty years of placing the bins in the same spot, I’ve never had one vanish before, and there are many metres between houses along this road.
Imacca – “We should be getting the people out of Manus asap.” Except that they’re in a foreign country and “we” have no power there. Moreover, it’s a foreign country with a Bill of Rights and an independent Supreme Court that takes the Bill of Rights seriously so even the PNG government’s powers over the ASs are limited. If “we” ask Thugspectrum to move them by force, it would be a breach of PNG law. No wonder Potato Head looks baffled – he has very few options, except to ask the ASs where they’d like to go.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/29/queensland-up-to-10-lnp-seats-could-change-hands-in-federal-election
Interesting
Wouldn’t it have been a pleasant surprise if, instead of 30-minute cities, the PM had announced a plan for “green cities”.
Otto bin = Wheelie bin.
The ones we’ve always seemed to be allocated are “Otto” brand.
Where we live there are a few battleaxe blocks as well and a decent smattering of parked cars. The number of households and cars, coupled with a very short street, make wheelie bin space a premium. Everyone tends to stack their bins shoulder to shoulder, so it’s easy to confuse them.
We do have one of those weird neighbours who berated me once for putting an excess garbage bag in his bin when it wouldn’t fit in mine on garbage night. Seems his garbage is superior to mine.
I got my revenge when I spotted my yellow bin just over the fence in his yard. I snaffled it back.
Jeez we can all get petty, can’t we?
Bushfire
Ah, now I understand.
Updated cccp to ver 5.24.
Ensures comment order is preserved.
Adds comment numbers. This is not ideal: any deletions of a previous comment on a particular page will get the numbers out-of-wack.
InsidersABC: Our guest this Sunday is @Bowenchris On the panel: @lenoretaylor, Michael Stutchbury & Niki Savva #auspol #Insiders https://t.co/LLnPZEqjVJ
If we had cities where ultra high speed internet was ubiquitous, no matter what suburb you lived in, 30-minute cities might be a more realistic idea.
We wouldn’t need CBDs where to even buy a car park nowadays costs $250,000. We wouldn’t need expensive motorways into them. High property prices. Apartments everywhere. Crowding and dysfunction rife.
Many more would be able to work from home, at least some days in the week. That would take pressure of public infrastructure, and lower stress factors induced by commuter travel. Being home you could pick up the kids on those days, saving childcare costs.
But some idiot killed the NBN. Now, who was that again? Oh… wait…