The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.
Dave on the same page as 2GB is almost worth the pain 🙂
Pell should resign for health reasons if he’s that sick. Somehow I doubt he will.
[households than a decade ago, welfare group finds http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-05/cost-of-living-report-sacoss/7141930 … report https://www.sacoss.org.au/sites/default/files/public/documents/Reports/Cost%20of%20Living%20Reports/160205%20Cost%20of%20Living%20Update25_good-bad-ugly.pdf …
12:37 PM – 5 Feb 2016
Photo published for Cost of living worse for low-income households than a decade ago: welfare group
Cost of living worse for low-income households than a decade ago: welfare group
Household fuels, water and rates see price rises far outstripping the CPI over the past decade, analysis from a South Australian welfare group finds.
abc.net.au]
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@151
K17 – Yep.
He set the tax reform meme off right from getting the job – now its looking like he has lost control where its all going.
He has wanted to be PM most of his life and has been in the Parliament since 2004 and tried to white ant costello on a range of taxation reform proposals – he even commissioned and paid for his own economic modeling of same.
Now he is trying to ‘pretend’ he doesn’t know yet what he ‘really’ wants to do.
More Lies.
Dio I agree with you on Bolt. It’s good strategy to know what the enemy is thinking. I listen to 2GB a couple of times a week just for balance.
Something has been eating at me since Keating bought into the GST debate earlier this week. He said that when revenues fall the answer is to cut spending, not raise taxes – which sounds remarkably similar to what Morrison has been saying since he took over the portfolio. ie. We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.
Most of the commentary here, including mine, has been very critical, even derisive, of that view. Yet here we have one of Labor’s economic icons apparently agreeing with it.
I must confess it has left me confused.
davidwh@201
The old quote from Westminster –
[ My opponents are opposite – and enemies behind me]
Lots of people waiting for him to stumble – then the boots will be put in.
Its almost like watching a slow motion train wreck – but who knows – he may prevail.
Darn or you accept ongoing deficits
CTR1
[There’s an all out war going on between the ex-Immigration staff and the former Customs people. As far as internecine warfare goes this one is a doozie.
Customs winning]
This does NOT augur well for effective management. I do wish that pollies would stop messing with the bureaucracy every time the wind changes.
davidwh
[I listen to 2GB a couple of times a week just for balance.]
So, it appears, does the ABC.
Vengeance is mine , sayeth the Lord. Pells boss is waiting for him.
I hope His Honour comes through for the victims!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/05/george-pell-still-too-unwell-to-fly-to-australia-for-child-abuse-royal-commission
[46.Bw
Pell is too crook to face the music?
F$ck him. They should fly enough commission people to Rome to do him over in an embassy meeting room.
]
Perhaps if he was actually accused of a crime and cowered in a place that wouldn’t extradite him he’d get the fanboy love that slime assange gets.
Take the royal commission to him in Rome!
The Pell / Assange inconsistency of position is hilarious.
Tip #youaredoingitwrong
Darn
Keating has always been a conservative thinker at heart. He’s no soft leftie.
Someone mentioned the Rod Marsh Wheel of Fortune thing last night but couldnt find the link.
Here it is…
http://imgur.com/3RNd8yB
1934pc@174
Not in circumstances like a case on ABC radio this morning.
Parents both died and grandparents suddenly were bringing up three autistic kids.
shea mcduff@176
Masochistic tendencies?
SK
I am no cricket fan but why are the so hesitant to give Usman Khawaja a run?
[Armed police have removed the Australian crew of the bulk alumina carrier, CSL Melbourne, and escorted aboard a foreign crew to sail the ship out of Australian waters.
A large contingent of police raided the ship in Newcastle, NSW, at 8.45am Friday, telling the five Australian crew members they must leave their vessel immediately.
“About 18 Australian Federal Police came on board and ordered us to leave,” said crew member Jason Donnellan.
“It was very intimidating. I’d estimate they were about 50 police altogether, with lots of them on the wharf, in paddy wagons and in two boats circling the ship.
“We asked if we could take our bags, but they said they would be brought off the ship afterwards.
“I can’t believe this — a company using police to get rid of Australian workers.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/armed-police-remove-ships-australian-crew-escort-replacements-aboard-20160205-gmml2y.html
Darn@206
Simple really.
Keating is wrong.
Boer war, you don’t have a clue what you are talking about.
ACT rates going up is to do with the gradual phase out of stamp duty, not light rail.
Busses slow other traffic because they are in the same lane and then stop. Light Rail is on a separate line and thus slows traffic less than any other options, whether that be cars, busses or bikes.
Are you meaning the capacity of ACT’s fleet of busses having more capacity than the fleet of Trams? They also cost a lot more because there are so many more of them. Turns out the capacity of Sydney busses is higher than the Sydney light rail. Same with Adelaides single tram line. Melbourne is one of few cities in the world where this might not be true. The total capacity of a transport system is meaningless without considering the total cost and many other factors.
As for them being slower, a Gungahlin to City trip will take 25 minutes according to the C times. By contrast, the busses take 24 minutes (nighttime) to 36 minutes (peak). How exactly are the trams slower?
https://www.action.act.gov.au/routes-network-14-improvements/57_city
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/frequent-trams-and-not-too-many-stops-key-to-light-rail-success-capital-metro-head-emma-thomas-says-20140521-zrji8.html
[ He said that when revenues fall the answer is to cut spending, not raise taxes – which sounds remarkably similar to what Morrison has been saying since he took over the portfolio. ie. We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.
Yet here we have one of Labor’s economic icons apparently agreeing with it. ]
Except he dissed the GST in spades as well and a lot more in that article.
He also pointed out the GST would hurt those with the least, the most.
Is he taunting them to make further cuts and damage themselves?
Or is he making the same sort of point as Hewson ? ie reverse the additional unsustainable spending howard brought in during the minerals boom ?
The costello concessions on super and the 50% CGT discount – all making their contribution to the structural deficit.
Instead they have tried to go after health, education, pension indexation etc and paid lip service to the rapid erosion of the tax base.
Reverse dopey joe’s $10 Billion transfer to the RBA – not gut the ABC, CSIRO etc etc.
I think the RC should refuse to give Pell a leave pass. If they have the power they should subpoena him to appear in person and if he doesn’t issue a warrant for his arrest – this might prevent him from returning to Australia ever.
If they can’t do this because they don’t have the power, they should refuse to interview him by video link but warn him that their report will be based on the uncontested evidence of the victims.
[ lizzie
Posted Friday, February 5, 2016 at 1:31 pm | Permalink
Armed police have removed the Australian crew of the bulk alumina carrier, CSL Melbourne, and escorted aboard a foreign crew to sail the ship out of Australian waters.
“I can’t believe this — a company using police to get rid of Australian workers.”
]
Echos of Chris Corrigan/Patricks …..
Corrigan is best known for the 1998 Australian waterfront dispute, in which he attempted to sack the heavily unionised workforce and replace it with strikebreakers, eventually leading to reform and restructuring of dockyard labour practices.
This will make you cry. Well, I did.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/a-doctors-confession-she-took-my-advice-and-died-as-planned-20160204-gmmdra.html
What is SHY and friends grilling the poor general looking dude about? I have pictures but no sound
phoenixRed
Did they have any Alsatians?
MTBW
he was in the bad books a while ago. Maybe that still lingers. Maybe he isnt in the ‘club’.
He also moved to Queensland from NSW in 2012 – so he is clearly deranged.
And he isnt the best fielder around.
If you were a cricket fan then…..
The Australian cricket fraternity dont leak like Cabinet so its hard to know for sure. I have heard (and posted yesterday) that there is a belief in cricket circles that Smith has made his last century in England as his technique is being worked out and can no longer withstand good bowling in moderately difficult conditions. Maybe there is a move to look for the next captain as winning in England is super important. Khawaja is the captain of QLD in the Shield. He is a few years older than Smith, but his technique is very solid on all types of pitches. His form is hot, and has been for 3 years. That should mean he gets included in the team, or it could mean the opposite. Clear as mud as always with Aus cricket selections.
WWP
About the alleged US$50k to people smugglers. The bit being forecast on ABC focuses on whether a passenger was pregnant.
I must qualify my cricket comments (as always) with the following;
I am not Simon Katich the famous cricketer and terrible cricket commentator.
[ Trump Drops 9 Points In National Poll After Losing In Iowa As Rubio Rises, Cruz Steady ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/trump-drops-9-points-national-poll-after-losing-iowa-rubio-rises-cruz-steady
There was a lot of scepticism about light rail on the Gold Coast but it has been wildly successful, to the extent that there is next to no opposition to the extensions now being planned. I have ridden on it and was very impressed.
Apparently there has been a similar reaction to other modern light rail systems around the world.
I can’t really comment on the Canberra proposal because I haven’t studied the detail and compared it with other recently installed systems, but I’d be a bit hesitant about condemning it out of hand.
The resistance to the rate rises is interesting because it gives a bit of an indication what will happen if state governments attempt to transition from stamp duty to land tax as many seem to want. Looks like PMMT is going to be running that line as well.
[ There’s an all out war going on between the ex-Immigration staff and the former Customs people. As far as internecine warfare goes this one is a doozie. ]
Interesting perspective ctar1.
The Libs have NOT been good to the APS during their time in power so its entirely plausible that some in the APS will be looking to make life difficult for them as and when they can. Especially on an emotive and divisive issue like immigration.
Having read the stuff on Latelines effort last night is suspect that the document they got may well be an early draft? Its direction doesn’t really seem to fit with any kind of “inclusiveness” concept in terms of immigration and i can understand if it has generated concern for people actually trying to deal with immigrants.
Its release could work both ways. Making it seem that the Govt is ramping up a “BOATS, TERRORISTS, BOO!!!!” campaign pre-election, AND get the RWNJ’s enthused about its direction so they clash with MalPM if he tries to hose things down.
Maybe its not the APS, but the Monkey Pod mob who have leaked it?? Only certainty i can see from this is that whatever its provenance its release provides another opportunity for MalPM to fwark up.
Scott Bales
[ As for them being slower, a Gungahlin to City trip will take 25 minutes according to the C times. By contrast, the busses take 24 minutes (nighttime) to 36 minutes (peak). How exactly are the trams slower? ]
In my experience, light rail is usually the slowest form of available public transport. Anyone who has used the light rail in Sydney will tell you it is much slower than using the bus for an equivalent journey.
phoenixRED
Those were the days when the ABC gave us full reports from both sides, as I remember. Peter Reith was the devious minister in charge.
[30.WWP
About the alleged US$50k to people smugglers. The bit being forecast on ABC focuses on whether a passenger was pregnant.
]
Thank you kindly. I assume the military dude was not answering. The senate really needs to find someone in contempt and jail them.
Noone should be exempt from answering fully and in correct detail a question from the Parliament
[In my experience, light rail is usually the slowest form of available public transport. Anyone who has used the light rail in Sydney will tell you it is much slower than using the bus for an equivalent journey.]
Use it a lot because we have a stop about 5 minutes from our place.
It’s a about 5-10 minutes longer than the train, but I imagine it’s far quicker than the bus, particularly in peak hours, which is most of the time in Sydney these days.
It’s a great service, but the main problem is that the frequency is not what it could be and the carriages get very crowded. There’s no reason why the can’t run every 5 minutes in peak times.
AJM
[There was a lot of scepticism about light rail on the Gold Coast but it has been wildly successful, to the extent that there is next to no opposition to the extensions now being planned. I have ridden on it and was very impressed.]
The designer of the Gold Coast light rail was on the ABC about 2 months ago critising the Cbr plan. Specifically saying that the passenger loads and ‘stop’ placements for the Cbr track not good.
[Those were the days when the ABC gave us full reports from both sides, as I remember.]
Ahh, the ‘opposition says…’ days, I remember them well.
Anyway, just about anything would be better than the Westconnex fiasco in Sydney. Just like everything else the Libs do, clothed in secrecy.
[ BK
Posted Friday, February 5, 2016 at 1:42 pm | Permalink
phoenixRed : Did they have any Alsatians?
]
Was definitely one of the worst “scenes” in Australian modern history …… was like looking at an old WW2 movie of black uniformed SS thugs with snarling alsatians…
dtt@164: interesting post, but lots of traps in most of the ideas.
Just looking at the land tax, and also your landlord tax idea: with owner-occupied housing exempt, most land tax is currently paid by landlords. If the states were to raise this massively, the Commonwealth would effectively be up for up to half of it: because individuals would be able to deduct that cost from the rental income (and this would apply even if negative gearing rules were substantially changed) and corporations would offset it against profits.
The Commonwealth’s reaction to a coordinated raising of land tax by the States would surely be to slash Grants Commission payments to the States by the equivalent amount, so, for each $ of additional land tax they raise (and all the political pain those increases will bring), the States will perhaps only end up with 50 cents in the dollar.
Another problem is that land tax also hits mum and dad holiday homes/shacks, so big land tax increases will make those who own those dwellings very unhappy.
Re stamp duty: this tends already to be very high for higher-priced housing. But increasing it any further is a two-edged sword, as it will tend to dampen the housing market and reduce the overall number of transactions. From a revenue point of view, State Governments want there to be lots of action at the high end of the property market with lots of people seeking to sell and upgrade.
Re your other ideas: most of these would only work if all States agreed to implement them in lockstep, which would be very difficult to achieve. I note that we no longer have what I would see as easily the fairest of all forms of tax – death duties – disappeared because one State, Queensland under Joh, chose unilaterally to abolish them and all of the other states felt forced to follow suit. That’s why no state would ever be brave enough to try to reintroduce income tax on its own.
States basically have no room to move in the area of taxation: it’s the Commonwealth that holds all the cards. The idea that state/provincial governments fund themselves through tax on retail activity (including GST) while central governments fund themselves through income tax is a pretty common standard in Federal systems around the world (although 43 states and even some local governments across the US impose different rates of income tax: being paradoxically different from everyone else is the US way).
I therefore think that the fairest possible tax system for Australia would see the GST increased in line with financial pressures on them that are rising at a faster rate than population growth. IMO, this really only applies to the health system, because of the ageing of the population.
The States would argue that the Gonski reforms also place additional pressure on them but, in my mind, these are Federal reforms and should be paid for out of income tax. As should any Federall-driven requirement for the States to up their levels of infrastructure spending or pretty much any other increased outputs that are coming from the centre.
As Keating said, 12.5 per cent GST would probably be fair enough to achieve this goal. And/or expanding the basket of goods it covers to include health and education: bearing in mind, as so many people forget, that this means extending it mainly to private school fees and the costs of treatment in the private health system.
imacca
[Maybe its not the APS, but the Monkey Pod mob who have leaked it??]
Or Monkey Pod Parliament staffers.
Someone decided that a harder line proposal was worth floating.
I don’t think we’ll get to know.
Your experience doesn’t really mean much compared to published timetables and hard data.
Regardless, lets take Melbourne.
This is pretty much a worst case scenario for light rail – these are mostly trams that travel on the roads, not on separate tracks.
Lets get from the homes of the major AFL teams (from the train station, if there is one) to Flinders St Station, shall we. Taking the minimum travel time on the first screen of ptv using only busses vs only trams.
Essendon – 41 minutes by tram. 1 hour 16 by 3 busses
St Kilda (Luna Park, there’s no train station) – 27 by tram, 56 by bus. Much of the tram journey here IS light rail style, not on roads, hence why this is so different)
Carlton (Carlton Baths/Rathdowne St (Carlton)) – 24 by tram, 42 by 3 trains
Richmond- 13 by tram, 17 by bus
Hawthorn – 21 by tram, 1 hour 34 by 4 busses.
Western Bulldogs (footscray train station) 1 hour by 2 trams, 34 by bus
Melbourne – 0 minutes either way.
Geelong – N/A either way
Final score – trams: 5, busses 1. Total time saved by taking the tram not bus = 2 hours 28 minutes.
Apologies to anyone if I missed your team. My AFL-fu is weak.
TRAMS ARE FASTER THAN BUSSES!
[“ABC24 hard up for news this morning – whether grandparents should be paid for childcare (and their qualifications to do it) and something about Craig McLachlan seem to be major features.””]
I saw McLachlan with a guitar, and immediately pressed Mute. I only tune in for the ticker anyway.
Omg, I suck at AFL.
North Melbourne – 27 by tram, 24 by bus.
Collingwood, 32 by tram, 51 by 3 busses.
Final Score: trams 6, busses 2. Total time saved increases to 2 hours 44 minutes
[Another problem is that land tax also hits mum and dad holiday homes/shacks, so big land tax increases will make those who own those dwellings very unhappy.]
And you wouldn’t want to accidentally tax the wealthy that makes them so grumpy.
Keating was always
(a) doctrinaire about his view on economics
(b) arrogant
That’s why he eventually got tossed out on his ear by someone who seemed to promise a softer approach all round (but we saw where that ended up!).
I know lots of PBers adore him but I must say I never quite caught that infatuation, for the reasons above.
He also started the fiddling with taxation arrangements on superannuation for budgetary purposes which has led us to the current farcical situation of people pulling large totally exempt incomes out of super. Far better to have left it at the original simple design of no tax on contributions and earnings in a fund but taxing the income or lump sum drawn down after retirement. It was easily understood and made some sense, unlike the dog’s breakfast of taxation provisions on super we now have.
LOL
[‘Wheelchair-bound suicide bomber’ blew himself up before being sucked out of passenger plane]
‘Trust us’ says NBN boss
The design of the NBN will be guided by the government’s policy objectives of providing download data rates of at least 25 megabits per second to all premises, and at least 50 Mbps to 90 per cent of fixed line premises.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/nbn-delivers-strong-performance/news-story/01f6b98027c194c71ead31e62efa3256
Being on a 50 Mbps Fixed Wireless plan – my Internet Provider tells me/neighbouring owners when we query why our download speeds are so slow – the NBN wording is that they will guarantee speed of *UP TO* 50Mbps …..
UP TO = 0- somewhere in double figures ( a lot less than 50 ) at any particular time of the day