BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition

Aggregated poll ratings find Malcolm Turnbull falling short of the heights he achieved towards the end of last year, without giving Labor any real cause for optimism about the election due later this year.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 43
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  1. Roman Polanski?

    Another name to add to my Ant List. As in, if I was driving, and saw him passed out by the side of the road, covered in ants, I would stop, walk over, throw a packet of sugar over him and drive off, without a second thought.

  3. The seat projection still has 15 seats in WA and 48 in NSW. Will it be adjusted for the redistributions in those states now that they have been finalised?

  4. The Abbott era continues

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-will-be-all-gone-as-csiro-swings-jobs-axe-scientists-say-20160203-gml7jy.html

    Apparently its down to Greens to state the bleeding obvious:

    [‘Innovation imposter’

    Adam Bandt, the Greens science and research spokesperson, said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was “an innovation imposter” if he allowed the cuts at CSIRO to go ahead.

    “In Paris, the Prime Minister said research and innovation are key to dealing with global warming, yet here at home the Liberal government’s cuts to the CSIRO mean that hundreds of climate scientists could be getting the axe,” Mr Bandt said.

    “The Coalition’s denialist dinosaurs continue to run the Turnbull government, just as they did under Tony Abbott,” he said.]

  8. Re Assange: strangely I find myself in agreement with Nicholas.

    I understand that, through one of the Byzantine nightmare of legal and bureaucratic agreements that characterise modem Europe, it was possible for Sweden to arrange with Britain to send Assange to them only for “questioning”. But, unless Swedish law is extremely unusual, it must also have been possible for them to have had him charged in Britain and then extradited to face those charges.

    So why choose to go down the questioning route? Why shouldn’t a reasonable person suspect that the point was, with Assange back in Sweden, the authorities could decide he had no case to answer re the rapes, opening the door for the U.S. Immediately to commence extradition proceedings? Perhaps it wasn’t the case, but the Swedes could certainly have done a helluvs lot more to make it look like it wasn’t (eg, question him in the UK first, then bring charges).

    BTW, this is not in anyway to defend Assange, who seems to be mostly an attention-seeker. Nor to detract from the seriousness of the crimes he was accused of. But the whole process never passed the sniff test for me.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And it’s another boomer of an edition today.

    Peter Martin says that a GST hike is a solution in search of a problem. He says that like a shark preparing to attack Morrison has closed his eyes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gst-hike-is-a-solution-in-search-of-a-problem-20160202-gmjybm.html
    Michelle Grattan suggests that Morrison has been wounded over his GST push.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-treasurer-scott-morrison-has-been-wounded-in-gst-row-54199
    Fairness will be the biggest hurdle for the government to attend to with the tax reforms.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/how-to-raise-the-gst-and-avoid-the-pitfalls-20160204-gmlk19.html
    Mark Kenny writes on how the GST is chipping away at party unity. A pretty good article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gst-debate-a-festering-sore-for-the-turnbull-government-20160204-gmlhyf.html
    Are we sleepwalking into a real mess?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/is-australia-going-to-sleepwalk-into-a-real-mess-20160204-gmln6t.html
    John Menadue has plenty to say about the Royal Commissions put in place by Coalition governments and their attached motives and actions. A good read.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/royal-commissions-partisan-politics-or-public-interest,8641
    Oh dear! Adam Gartrell links a Turnbull investment to 7-Eleven in Australia. Stand by for some QT fun today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-financial-stake-in-7eleven-under-scrutiny-20160204-gmlikw.html
    Waleed Aly asks how long we can keep lying to ourselves about Nauru.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nauru-detention-centre-clock-ticks-on-our-addiction-to-fictions-of-asylumseeker-policy-20160203-gml6or.html
    Michaela Whitbourn examines the legality of churches harbouring asylum seekers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/churches-outside-the-law-when-offering-sanctuary-to-asylum-seekers-20160203-gmlagz.html
    More naughty stuff at Which Bank?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/commonwealth-bank-staff-implicated-in-alleged-76m-fraud-20160204-gmllia.html

  10. Section 2 . . .

    The success of Sydney’s lockout success has hit a nerve.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/matt-barries-tirade-against-sydneys-nighttime-regulations-goes-viral-20160203-gmlab1.html
    Could you imagine the uproar from certain lobby groups and politicians if these products were sourced from China?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/salmonella-outbreak-linked-to-coles-and-woolworths-lettuce-20160204-gmlqwd.html
    At last!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/exodus-from-public-to-private-schools-stops-20160204-gmlzs3.html
    More gutting of the CSIRO. Outsourcing agility perhaps?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/csiro-cuts-from-climate-denial-to-climate-outsourcing-20160204-gmlr5q.html
    “View from the Street” explores the GST and children in detention.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-government-split-on-gst-still-cool-with-kids-in-detention-20160204-gmlxg2.html
    This Senate inquiry will investigate the financial exposure to climate change risks.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/04/show-us-where-the-money-is-senate-inquiry-will-probe-carbon-bubble/
    The ACCC has clearly had enough of Woolworths’s management!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/accc-wants-woolworths-hit-with-4m-unsafe-product-penalty-20160204-gmlme1.html
    More trouble for Woolworths as it is revealed that workers were under-payed during the time of its ownership of Dick Smith.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/dick-smith-receiver-removes-cfo-and-22-staff-20160204-gmle49.html
    Is the SCG dream for NSW all over in a flash?
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/baird-gas-plan-dead-in-the-water-as-agl-gives-up-on-coal-seam-gas-20160204-gmlnb8.html
    The states are (justifiably) pushing back against the TAFE takeover proposal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/state-governments-push-back-on-federal-tafe-takeover-20160204-gmlk45.html

  11. Section 3 . . .

    Michael Pascoe sees some good economic signs
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/business-driving-ahead-despite-market-jitters-20160204-gmm629.html
    This is horrible.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/you-say-you-are-saving-our-lives-but-you-are-killing-us-young-asylum-seekers-plea-to-malcolm-turnbull-20160204-gmligj.html
    Richard Ackland laments where we are after the latest High Court decision. “After the high court decision on Nauru, what we’re left with are people who have no remedy, no rights and are at the mercy of someone like Peter Dutton.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/04/the-high-court-despite-the-law-at-its-disposal-has-let-them-get-away-with-it
    Labor is hunting Turnbull over the Nick Ross/ABC issue.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/04/false-balance-labor-goes-after-turnbull-over-abc-secret-tapes/
    Quite frankly one could not blame Truss for nodding off during a Turnbull QT waffle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/warren-truss-nods-off-during-malcolm-turnbull-question-time-monologue-20160204-gmlqtz.html
    The Australian Border Force head is to face a Senate grilling over payments to people smugglers.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/05/border-force-head-to-face-questions-on-alleged-payment-to-people-smugglers
    And the Essendon saga is set to roll on for some years yet!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/essendon/some-essendon-players-to-appeal-twoyear-wada-in-swiss-courts/news-story/0b52aff352485858b47ba044ff185140
    Two questions for Bernie Sanders.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/two-questions-for-bernie-sanders-20160204-gmlwnf.html
    Jeb Bush – the sound of no hands clapping.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/02/03/jeb-bush-clapping_n_9154770.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
    The Australian Navy – can’t crew a canoe!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/hello-sailor-navy-offers-50000-per-man-in-bid-to-keep-sub-fleet-afloat-20160203-gml880.html

  12. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    And things are coming to a head in the Defence Department with the staff enterprise agreement process.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/defence-department-enterprise-agreement-nears-vote-for-20000-public-servants-20160203-gmkm56.html
    Alan Moir on Morrison’s credentials.

    Cathy Wilcox and the further education curricula.

    More from Cathy Wilcox on the separation of church and state-sanctioned abuse.

    Alan Moir gives both barrels to Dutton!

    Ron Tandberg has his say on the return of the children to Nauru.

    David Pope puts many things into perspective here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html?selectedImage=1
    Mark Knight asks some questions with this contribution.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5453a9afc2cf18ba254879a002665d96?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    Ouch! David Rowe on Turnbull taking the moral high ground.

  13. Now that a death certificate has been issued for Richard Bingham, 7th Earl of Lucan, I expect that within a week press reports will surface claiming that he is alive and well, living in a penthouse apartment in the salubrious Montevideo suburb of Pocitos and regularly holidaying with the ‘beautiful people’ at nearby Punta del Este.

    Or (just for Bushfire Bill)positively identified as being a passenger on MH370. 😀

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-35481376

  14. We can only question Ian Macfarlane’s judgement in appointing this ‘businessman’ and so-called start-up expert as the head of CSIRO. Real scientists will be appalled.

    [“Just like a startup, our nation needs to re-invent itself (pivot) in order to navigate a new and uncertain future. Our nation needs us to create the science to enable the innovation for this profound reinvention.”

    No need to further understand climate change, the priority is to measure it through the “application of environmental big data sets” and mitigate outcomes.

    The cuts to climate research are about pivoting to a national “profound reinvention” then.

    Instead of deepening research into climate change, Dr Marshall flagged other priorities: to “transmute commodity mineral sands into unique titanium ink for 3D printing”; turning “coal into a cleaner form of diesel fuel”; “making mining more profitable and sustainable”; “breed new strains of food”; et cetera. (My bold)]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/csiro-cuts-from-climate-denial-to-climate-outsourcing-20160204-gmlr5q.html

  15. Another brick in the wall to shore up business domination over aesthetic value.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/ceo-of-national-trust-resigns-20160204-gmm05e.html

    [The news comes months after three board members were voted out, prompting the resignation of four other directors, including the board’s then-chairman, Dr Graeme Blackman.

    Sources close to the trust say the board was divided between a group of members who had an increasing business focus, and other members who were more inclined towards conservation and advocacy.]

  16. Salmonella Lettuce – Victoria’s health department recommended’ that Lettuce be washed before being consumed.

    Fair Dinkum!

  17. Meher

    [it must also have been possible for them to have had him charged in Britain and then extradited to face those charges]

    Here, a request for extradition is preceded by a warrant for arrest which can issue based on suspicion of an offence having been committed. Charging is not part of the process.

  18. Ackland makes a beginner’s mistake:

    [After all, Gordon was an appointment to the court by the Abbott government, to fill the vacancy created by her husband Ken Haine’s retirement. Her findings in the court’s first judgment of the year must come as a surprise to her sponsors in cabinet.]

    The notion that HC judges are sponsored is silly. The notion that the judges should feel obliged to government is an arcane myth in Australia.

  19. lizzie@14

    We can only question Ian Macfarlane’s judgement in appointing this ‘businessman’ and so-called start-up expert as the head of CSIRO. Real scientists will be appalled.

    The other explanation is that the tories intended this to happen.

    I’m much more inclined to see it that way.

  20. The most amusing side effect of Julian Assange’s self-imposed asylum in the Ecuadorean Embassy is that, for a man who thrived upon the constant stream of female acolytes through his bedroom and which thing got him into the Swedish hot water in the first place, he has been deprived of that very thing for the last 3 years! Punishment enough he probably thinks. But how ironic. 😀

  21. shellbell

    [The notion that HC judges are sponsored is silly. The notion that the judges should feel obliged to government is an arcane myth in Australia.]
    So those that appoint never consider picking horses they see as best for their course ?

  23. poroti

    They are not going to pick a legal academic, that is for sure but the idea of let’s appoint person A because he/she will find for the Cth is baseless.

  25. Morning all.

    [Michelle Grattan suggests that Morrison has been wounded over his GST push.]

    He certainly hasn’t handled it with any deftness at all, ticking off some of his colleagues along the way.

  27. Poroti – Heydon is a notorious case of someone who basically trailed his coat as a black-letter lawyer and then got picked by Howie. Though working out what judges will do on the bench is a thankless task. Some of the most progressive judges on the US Supreme Court (e.g. Earl Warren) were chosen by Republican presidents.

  29. I hadnt heard anything reported on this

    Tony Windsor
    Tony Windsor – ‏@TonyHWindsor

    Joyce will move on a stockyards and packers act after threat from Qld cattle producers to withdraw funds from Nats . Leadership in trouble .
    8:46 PM – 3 Feb 2016
    55 RETWEETS49 LIKES]

  30. Confessions – Sco-Mo has blown up any chance of becoming leader of the Libs or PM, Methinks. Interestingly, he’s still got his numb-nut supporters (Tehan) out there spruiking a GST.
    Morrison obviously thinks that the 45% tax rate at $180,000 deeply offends his prosperity bible. He’s a flat-tax freak (see Tehan’s article in the SMH). That’s what this is all about.
    Maybe it’s time for Turnbull to step in and tell Sco-Mo that, ah, in fact, Sco-Mo, the rich don’t pay any tax at all!

  32. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    [Though working out what judges will do on the bench is a thankless task.]
    It would be. The shock horror reports about a judge behaving out of pre appointment character are not rare…………thank goodness.

  33. Poroti – If you want to read a fantastic book about the great US Supreme Court judges in the 20th century, which makes that point, you can read “Scorpions”. One of the few books I’ve actually finished since I reached adulthood.

  34. k17

    Dont know what Act it is. Unless it is code for something in the country! 🙂

    I will keep an eye out on Windsor’s twitterfeed throughout the day to ascertain what it might actually mean

  36. vic

    [Joyce will move on a stockyards and packers act after threat from Qld cattle producers to withdraw funds from Nats]

    Mysterious!

  38. Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing

    Turnbull is a paradigm of Leadership.

    So he should just do it with no idea of the effects?

    The specific effects Turnbull wants to know is how many seats will they lose. He’s gutless against anyone who can hit him back. The first whiff of grapeshot and he’s looking for a way to back down.

  39. [Paul Kelly says the PM wants to know specifics of what a GST increase would do before committing

    Turnbull is a paradigm of Leadership.

    So he should just do it with no idea of the effects?]

    The specific effects Turnbull wants to know is how many seats will they lose. He’s gutless against anyone who can hit him back. The first whiff of grapeshot and he’s looking for a way to back down.

  44. ABC24 hard up for news this morning – whether grandparents should be paid for childcare (and their qualifications to do it) and something about Craig McLachlan seem to be major features.

  45. Shellbell @ 23: Are you sure that when Justice Murphy was appointed to the High Court, Mr Whitlam didn’t have even a teensy weensy suspicion that he might be inclined to find in favour of the Commonwealth?

  49. [transmute commodity mineral sands into unique titanium ink for 3D printing]

    Is Unique Titanium anything like Unique Water?

    Has someone asked Paul Sheehan?

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