BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition

Aggregated poll ratings find Malcolm Turnbull falling short of the heights he achieved towards the end of last year, without giving Labor any real cause for optimism about the election due later this year.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Mr Menadue in his article on Royal Commissions cited in the dawn patrol had some pointed things to say about Sir Harry Gibbs. One bit of history which I seldom see mentioned is that Sir Harry’s brother, Dr Wylie Gibbs, was in fact the Liberal member for Bowman from 1963 to 1969. He appears to be still alive, aged 93 according to Wikipedia.

    Mr Menadue also listed the many and varied Royal Commissions into the unions over the years. Oddly enough, I was recently looking at a YouTube clip of a Tory political broadcast from the UK general election of 1955, and at the 2.00 minute mark, you can find being raised a proposal from the (UK) Liberal Party for (guess what) a Royal Commission into the unions. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kq-_Bpl6Oy8

  2. [Tony Windsor
    Tony Windsor – ‏@TonyHWindsor

    Joyce will move on a stockyards and packers act after threat from Qld cattle producers to withdraw funds from Nats . Leadership in trouble .
    8:46 PM – 3 Feb 2016
    55 RETWEETS49 LIKES]

  3. ratsak
    [
    ..transmute commodity mineral sands into unique titanium ink for 3D printing

    Is Unique Titanium anything like Unique Water?

    Has someone asked Paul Sheehan?]
    Just noticed the word “transmute”. With the Coalition’s science credentials they are probably thinking of alchemy creating a “Philosophers stone” led recovery .

  4. RNBreakfast: .@Bowenchris on rumoured govt super levy changes: “for a 30 year old on 70,000” it would mean over $100,000 difference at retirement #auspol

    RNBreakfast: .@Bowenchris on super rate: “we will fight on this all the way… we need to see if Scott Morrison follows through on this thought bubble”

  5. Heard on RN this morning that the ‘international community’ (including Australia) is donating billions to provide jobs for Syrians (not in Syria).

    Fascinating to think they have a magic formula for conjuring millions of jobs in adjacent economies.

  6. BevanShields: Turnbull on cabinet doc proposal: “I can assure you that in terms of people’s rights that there’s only one class of citizenship in Australia

  7. poroti

    [Just noticed the word “transmute”. With the Coalition’s science credentials they are probably thinking of alchemy creating a “Philosophers stone” led recovery .]

    Or that Gold will result (as long as the right incantation is used).

  8. hmmm. Dutton says he has never seen the proposals as reported. He says that it was prepared by the dept, but he has never seen it. What is going on…….

  9. As Mr Marshall so eloquently pointed to Leigh Sales CSIRO ‘are the innovation ecosystem. Together (with the universities), we can really move the needle and deliver.’

    Really, you would be hard pressed to find so much bullshit in a single interview, though I was disappointed to only see one ‘moving forward’ featured.

    No wonder this government selected him.

  10. [With the Coalition’s science credentials they are probably thinking of alchemy ]

    They have a long history of turning utter bullshit into political gold so maybe Alchemy works?

  11. [Turnbull at doorstop presser denies planned changes to Super contribution rises.]

    Looks like the rule out game has started. What a mess Malcolm has created.

  12. [Turnbull at doorstop presser denies planned changes to Super contribution rises.]

    I for one are very glad. The lifetime limit makes a lot of sense, so when the pool hits a certain size then tax contributions and income like normal, until then leave it as is now (or reduce contributions tax).

    The very idea that Jack doesn’t own his home doesn’t own any other wealth assets but because in year x he earns $250k he is rich, is a very silly idea indeed.

  13. Re CSIRO cuts

    The big issue about the CSIRO cuts is that they impact basic science which is the necessary precursor to applied science in an “agile and innovative” society.

    In short you can’t have “applied science” without having “science”.

    One could ask – how could this be possibly relevant to oceanic science? E.g. The CSIRO people affected by the cuts use buoys designed to automatically submerge, record ocean temperatures, salinity etc and then resurface. Both the data and the technology itself is immediately relevant to submarine warfare and countermeasures.

  14. Shellbell
    [The notion that HC judges are sponsored is silly. The notion that the judges should feel obliged to government is an arcane myth in Australia.]

    Without trying real hard I could name 4 senior judges at federal level who received their appointments because their political bent was in tune with the government of the time that appointed them and where that political predilection was a factor that was either publicly or privately acknowledged.
    In 2 of the examples that I am thinking of when the government changed and the senior judges were still in their jobs criticism of those judges from leading government politicians for not doing what that new government wanted was made both privately and publicly and upon the first opportunity [retirement] those judges were replaced by persons far more amenable to the government line.
    If you are an insider to legal circles I’m sure you will be able to guess the names and probably add a few of your own.

    In the meantime here is a memory jogger.
    http://www.justinian.com.au/archive/the-dicing-of-heydons-job-application.html

  15. [hmmm. Dutton says he has never seen the proposals as reported. He says that it was prepared by the dept, but he has never seen it. What is going on…….]

    Methinks Dutton is being less than truthful!

  16. Turnbull continuing Abbott’s cuts to the CSIRO shows there’s no messiah, just more of the same regressive coalition govt we always get.

  17. Well now we have a pause in the news. I can say good morning 🙂

    The unravelling continues and I think the voters are indeed noticing.
    The leaking is just as damaging to the LNP as it was to Labor in the Rudd Gillard years.

    With the PM and Minister saying they have not even read documents being leaked to the media the voters will be asking what the hell is going on.

    Its certainly a chaotic mess.

  18. I cannot listen to Malcolm. He always sounds as if he’s winging it on policy and he edits himself as he talks, which means a lot of repetition and leaves the listener uncertain as to what he’s really saying. Good policy for someone who’s still inventing himself? Hmmm.

    He must have carefully rehearsed that ‘I am challenging Abbott’ (probably with Lucy’s help) because that’s the last time I’ve heard him speak so clearly.

  19. [Let’s be impudent for a moment and ponder what is the point of the Turnbull government?

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gst-debate-a-festering-sore-for-the-turnbull-government-20160204-gmlhyf.html#ixzz3zExDajVD
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook]

    Hardly impudent Mark, but nice to know you’re finally noticing.

    The answer to the question “what is the point of the Turnbull government” of course is simply to BE the Turnbull government. Mal gets to be PM and the rest of em get to be on the right of the speaker rather than the left. Same as the Abbott government it has no greater point.

  20. joshgnosis: Boat turnbacks hearing is essentially this:
    Coalition senators: You have no evidence.
    Witnesses: Because the government won’t investigate.

  21. Apparently Lisa Wilkins on one of those fluffly breakfast shows told Clive Palmer Australians think he’s a joke at present. 😀

  22. Trog @ 68.

    Noted the same point myself tomorrow. No science to apply if you aren’t doing the pure science to start with. Yeah we can leech a bit off research done elsewhere but in the end all of our best and brightest will go OS where the opportunities are and those countries will be in prime position to develop the applications based on their own pure research.

    It is undermining the very foundation of science in our country, and we’ll pay a heavy price for the damage these Neanderthals are doing.

  23. Lift your own taxes, PM tell states

    The states and territories need to consider raising their own taxes if they want more money to fund schools and hospitals, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says.

    “The states have got themselves into a way of thinking that every time they need more money, they just go to the ATM of the federal government,” he told Radio 5AA in Adelaide on Friday.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/lift-your-own-taxes-pm-tell-states/news-story/9b75cdc949bda9cb881f1689b3368537

  24. fess

    Yes, the ‘waffle’ is the result of going back and rephrasing something he has just said – sometimes twice. If he paused for thought before launching into his answers he’d make a better fist of it. I think it was zoomster or cat who suggested it comes from over-confidence in his ability.

  25. lizzie and fess

    That waffle got him trouble last question time when he admitted contacting the Managing Director Mark Scott of the ABC privately to complain.

    We will hear more next QT I think.

  26. [ confessions

    Posted Friday, February 5, 2016 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    Apparently Lisa Wilkins on one of those fluffly breakfast shows told Clive Palmer Australians think he’s a joke at present
    ]

    LISA Wilkinson has grilled Clive Palmer over the collapse of his mining businesses in a fiery interview this morning.

    Wilkinson did not hold back, pressing the mining mogul about the collapse of his Queensland Nickel business which has left the jobs of 237 workers on the line.

    “You’ve boasted about being a very rich man for a very long time,” Wilkinson said.

    “Why don’t you pay the entitlements for the 200 families?” she asked Mr Palmer.

    Wilkinson did not stop there, asking Mr Palmer whether his time in parliament could be described as “at best an embarrassment, and at worst a disaster?”

    MORE : http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/lisa-wilkinson-grills-clive-palmer-in-fiery-today-interview/news-story/5b82acde97e09c50cb155378d834a0fa?sv=38a1090fbf29c18063522c6c766ffce5

  27. Turnbull uses waffle like Abbott used umm aah and errr.

    Just noise while attempting to engage the thought process.

    Lawyers are like that.

  28. If you read Tehan in the SMH today, it appears that Sco-Mo’s big plans is to get rid of the 43% rate kicking in at 80,000. Eventually, of course, that would be a prelude to the whole tax system being 35%. Essentially, I think Sco-Mo is a flat-tax junkie.

  29. amnestyOz: RT @DsSayed: @StephAmnestyOz: @amnestyOz is calling for a Royal Commission Inquiry into the push backs of boats,need independent monitoring

  30. ‘hmmm. Dutton says he has never seen the proposals as reported. He says that it was prepared by the dept, but he has never seen it. What is going on…….’

    Was it a document prepared for Cabinet? Yes.
    Was it a document which Cabinet has considered yet? Don’t know.

    Therefore plausible deniability can be employed by Dutton with a straight face.

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