The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds at least some of the gloss coming off Malcolm Turnbull’s honeymoon poll ratings, with Labor gaining half a point on two-party preferred since last week and clawing back a point on the seat projection. This week’s Newspoll result means there are now two useable data points this year for personal ratings, the other being the monthly reading from Essential Research that was released a fortnight ago, and they collectively indicate a double-digit drop in Turnbull’s net approval rating since the end of last year, and a downturn in his standing on preferred prime minister. Nonetheless, Turnbull retains commanding leads, and the Coalition is credited with a bigger two-party vote and seat majority than was achieved at the 2013 election.
So, it appears that MalPM’s strategy is now going to be:
1. Can the GST;
2. Tighten a few concessions;
3. Balance the budget by telling the States they’re on their own.
What a frickin’ dud.
davidwh@143
I fired that off too quickly and should have added that such drafts get circulated for comment by others. So there could have been quite a few people who had received it.
As to the motive, who knows? But it won’t help Dutton or the Govt so I presume it was someone aggrieved with one or the other or both. That really narrows it, doesn’t it? 😀
‘Turnbull is under increasing pressure. They are not a united party.’
As that photo of Turnbull this morning testified to. Anyone who goes to a press conference and then displays, inadvertently I would have thought, their Question Time Brief to the journos and snappers, is someone who doesn’t have their shit together.
dwh @150
I think the de-stabiliser’s are getting a bit smarter at it too. No mention of Abbott this week.
Mal’s brilliant solution: We’re not going to raise Federal Government spending, we’re going to raise State Government spending.
Serious question. How long would it take bracket creep to fix the budget?
I seem to remember back when we had a “deficit disaster”, the Inter-generational Report had to be fudged with imaginary tax cuts or bracket creep would have us in surplus by 2020.
It probably assumed higher wages growth, but even at the low 2% we have now, bracket creep still occurs.
[davidwh
Posted Friday, February 5, 2016 at 11:13 am | Permalink
Interesting that the leaked immigration draft paper was allegedly leaked before either the minister or PM had seen the paper. Who would have had access to it in government before the executive? ]
Allegedly the earth is flat and the moon is made of green cheese. I’m a bit too cynical to take at face value what Ministers ( of all stripes) tell us.
Oh, and while we’re at it, we will have a difference in quality of health care between the states. That will go down really peachy in places like SA and Tasmania.
[It probably assumed higher wages growth, but even at the low 2% we have now, bracket creep still occurs.]
Or does it stop working when wages growth is below inflation?
[People have been trying to de-stabilize the Turnbull government from the beginning. The main difference now is that all the media is reporting on it. 2GB personalities have openly admitted they would be happy for Labor to win the next election just to get rid of Turnbull. Jones did something similar during the QLD election.]
True, but Turnbull hasn’t helped himself at all. Had he taken a few tough stands and showed the loons he was in charge now, even on simple things like the SSM plebiscite, his rise in the polls would have made him untouchable and given him the power to move further.
But he welshed it at the first hurdle. It’s been nothing but backing away from purported beliefs since. The 2GB nitwits wouldn’t go after him if he had shown some spine.
[Allegedly the earth is flat and the moon is made of green cheese. I’m a bit too cynical to take at face value what Ministers ( of all stripes) tell us.]
And even if he hadn’t seen it, you would think he would have had a glance since it was leaked… and became a story.
The claim MT hadn’t seen the paper is just too easy to disprove if a lie particularly when people are looking for ammunition to destroy you.
[Or does it stop working when wages growth is below inflation?]
No. Even nominal wages growth (less than inflation, more than zero) pushes you into higher tax brackets eventually because they aren’t indexed.
jackaranda and cat momma
I think it is lack of will power not options for State governments. Try these:
1. The states can impose land taxes, which they do and could change to be much more progressive. We currently have semi progressive rates but the states do not take any money. With rebates for small homes or homes in lower value areas, this could extract some luvvveerly $ from the super rich. Much more targeted than GST, this would extract money from the super wealthy including those with accounts in the Cayman’s. By giving huge discount to real people but not corprations they could close a loophole nicely. Could also get extra $ from non resident land owners.
2. They could call the Commonwealth bluff and reinstate income taxes. This would be particularly positive for NSW but not an option for the mendicant states.
3. They could probably impose a “use of services tax” to cover hospitals, schools and any government services. It copuld be demanded whenever people need to use a government service but be rebated fully for those on lower incomes. This is tricky I admit, but still possible. The Qld Ambualnce levy is one such tax.
4. They can impose congestion taxes and parking taxes which should be introduced to fully cover road construction and public transport
4. They can MASSIVELY raise licence fees for polluters – including a carbon taxdirty trucks. Victoria had (has)huge polluter pays “licence fees” but which were REALLY pollution emission taxes – the ONLY reason they were not explicitly called pollution taxes was that they did not raise enough to cover admin costs so they technically were not pollution taxes. But they were (are).
4. They could impose a licence fee on polluting vehicles. This is already done but on a small scale
5. They can impose death duties – I am not a fan, but still
6. Stamp duties could be rejigged to extract $ from the super rich
7. Increase mining royalties
8. Payroll taxes – I am NOT a fan
9. Restaurant taxes – focus on the very very elite places. Extract money for health inspections from the elite diners.
10. Landlord taxes – extract money from those with large propery portfolios
11. Some bank taxes and even some transactions – need to be careful of the constitution but possible.
12. Very high waste disposal charges.
13. Professional registration fees – extract money from highly paid barrisers, medicos and even tradespeople.
14. Licence fees for supermarkets and other retail shops. Exemptions for the little guys but extract money from Colesworth.
15. Port and rail transport charges. Give expemptions based on the amount of Commonweath tax paid. Apple might off shore all its income to Ireland, and the commonwealth may control any import tarriffs, but if they want to sell product at JB Hi Fi then they will need to have a licence. OK, OK Shell Bell, I knpow they will need to pay $15,000 per day for the high court challenge.
16. Licence the SITES of banks. Cannot control the actions of banks other than State banks under the consitution, but they can licence their buildings.
This is just a list of possibilities if the states really need money. Most (not all are tired and true, but the amounts currently raised are small.
I learned several years ago to judge the ‘bias’ of a published article by the accompanying photo chosen (remember the days when stock photos were all that was available?).
Abbott is invariably portrayed by ‘leftie’ press with chin jutting out or lips pursed. Have been watching with interest as Mal has morphed from smiling conqueror to worried leader.
[The claim MT hadn’t seen the paper is just too easy to disprove if a lie particularly when people are looking for ammunition to destroy you.]
Nah, Howard’s old, “my office received it, but it hadn’t been across my desk’ routine always worked a treat.
Dutton though…
Hey I have not followed all the posts so this may have been said BUT regarding judges
Tim Carmody!!!
lizzie – is that why Obama looks like he’s aged 30 years in the past 8 – because all the world’s media has drifted to the right?
Some times, people look less cheerful because they ARE less cheerful.
ratsak @160,
Turnbull may have been damaged by his 1st incarnation, he seems terrified of the RWNJ’s.
I agree he would have been better off using his honeymoon to drag the LNP back to the centre, even saying as much, and locking in the swinging voters. Having a free vote on SSM would have been enough. Then again… I’m probably not a good guide for him 🙂
I’m sure that Dutton never saw the ACTUAL PHYSICAL DOCUMENT that was leaked – doesn’t mean he didn’t know what’s in it.
Bloody hell! Just looked at Bolts blog and he’s saying exactly the same thing PBers are saying; Turnbull isn’t showing economic leadership and hasn’t made a case for raising the GST. Bolt even quotes Keating approvingly.
Scott Bales
No, I was only saying leftie press because I don’t read the murdoch papers or watch commercial TV, so my judgement could be wrong.
[Some times, people look less cheerful because they ARE less cheerful.]
Declining confidence can do that to a leader. 🙂
Didn’t Dutton use the ‘sent to my office but we didn’t see it” excuse before?
In relation to the Border Farce search and destroy document/PR release in Melbourne sent out by his mate Roman?
And then he had to backtrack when someone revealed they had to have seen it because they replied to it?
Twice.
What happened to that – did the media just let it drop?
“ABC24 hard up for news this morning – whether grandparents should be paid for childcare (and their qualifications to do it) and something about Craig McLachlan seem to be major features.””
Grandparents have been looking after their offspring for thousands of years, to offer to pay them is STUPID!.
Diog
Perhaps Bolt will suffer some sort of personal crisis and Malcolm will turn up at his door with a bottle of comforting Grange. Then they’ll be besties for ever. 😉
I’m still trying to figger out why Dio reads Bolt.
Dio
[Bloody hell! Just looked at Bolts blog and he’s saying exactly the same thing PBers are saying; Turnbull isn’t showing economic leadership and hasn’t made a case for raising the GST. Bolt even quotes Keating approvingly.]
One thing I’ve noticed since this LNP government is how well Hawke/Keating’s economic credentials have aged. Not long ago Howard had successfully stolen much of Keating’s legacy. Add Rudd’s handling of the GFC and it can’t be a bad thing for the ALP.
It has always irked me that the LNP assume the mantle of “best for the economy” when the ALP win all the “worlds best treasurer” awards 🙂
[ shea mcduff
Posted Friday, February 5, 2016 at 12:06 pm | Permalink
I’m still trying to figger out why Dio reads Bolt.
]
He deserves a PB-VC – for bravery and for valour “in the face of the enemy”
shea mcduff
[I’m still trying to figger out why Dio reads Bolt.]
Because someone has to do it for the rest of us, and he knows the medicos who can treat PTSD.
You do need a strong stomach to read Bolt and many days I just can’t face it but it does add another perspective. Variety is the spice of life.
Good morning all,
Interesting days.
The big question is will Scott Morrison be willing to accept being hung out to dry by Turnbull ?
If not then things will get even more interesting
Cheers.
you can’t seriously think that all these polls aren’t being played with. one says 55/45 another which fits the facts says 51/49 and you are claiming accuracy. you are being played to make the LNP look good. it worked at the last election but bills turn outs at his public meetings without MSM present shows he is very popular with the public and that the public like the labor policies
you are being played
MalPM: “Don’t worry ScoMo, I’ve got your back … shit, where did you get hit?”
C@tmomma @102
One of the few taxes they can levy unimpeded is the one tax that actually boosts prosperity.
They should try (more of) that, and whoever is PM should tell them to naff off until they do.
The draft Cab Sub probably didn’t make it out of DIBP.
There’s an all out war going on between the ex-Immigration staff and the former Customs people. As far as internecine warfare goes this one is a doozie.
Customs winning
KM – I don’t think these polls are very good, but I’d prefer to go with the cock-up theory of history rather than the conspiracy theory. After ReachTel’s PPM rating for Shorten at the last poll, I’ve certainly lost all faith in them
SH-Y turning into Abbott?
He couldn’t say ISIL or Daesh with out the suffix ‘death cult’.
I know Nauru is crap but she cannot say Nauru without prefixing it with ‘the hell hole of’.
Is anyone surprised?
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-05/cardinal-george-pell-too-ill-to-child-sex-abuse-inquiry-lawyers/7140584 ]
Meanwhile in the National Capital, the Greensmail Line is off and running.
Payments for running this travesty are a state secret.
Latest studies show:
The light rail will have less capacity than the buses.
Will be slower than the buses.
Will slow all other vehicular traffic.
Will result in mass vandalism to our main entrance trees.
To pay for this Greens ideological freak show our rates are going up by a compound rate of 10%.
P1
Pell is too crook to face the music?
The lord looks after his own?
Oh, and the Light rail trains will run with a reduced frequency compared with buses.
Mad.
Dio,
Please note the SA Chapter get-together at Jaycee’s place in Sedan, on Saturday 27 February, from 1pm till late. Sleepover facilities are available.
The Cbr Light Rail offers up the chance of being a single issue election.
It would burn me badly to feel so compelled that I wouldn’t even ‘donkey vote’ but have to vote for the Libs.
Boerwar
[ The lord looks after his own? ]
The lord helps those who help themselves.
Bw
[Pell is too crook to face the music?]
F$ck him. They should fly enough commission people to Rome to do him over in an embassy meeting room.
davidwh@137
Or they are lying. Again ?
Were their lips moving?
Shorter. Turnbull appetite for GST increase wanes. Worried he will lose popularity
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-talks-up-gst-problems-in-sign-his-appetite-for-change-is-waning-20160204-gmmc8k.html
Yep.
[Rowan
Rowan – @FightingTories
If Turnbull & Dutton deny ever seeing it, either it is a false doc for propaganda or both are lying and using it for “stop the boats” chant
5:38 PM – 4 Feb 2016
1 RETWEET]
davidwh@150
Seems a very reasonable position to take.
Then tony the wrecker back.
Peachy. 🙂
Bolt isn’t hard to read. He is on a Turnbull wrecking crusade. He’ll likely succeed.