ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

ReachTEL finds no indication that the government’s travails over the new year have done any harm to its standing with the voters.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for the Seven Network supports Roy Morgan and Essential Research in finding nothing too radical has happened over the new year break. The poll records the Coalition’s two-party lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last poll on November 26. That’s all we have at this stage, but hopefully full results will be on the website soon.

UPDATE: Here we go. On the primary vote, the Coalition goes from 48.8% to 48.5%, while Labor goes from 31.1% to 31.8%, and the Greens go from 11.2% to 10.8%. A little surprisingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister question has widened considerably, from 71.3-28.7 to 80.8-19.2.

UPDATE 2 (26/1/16): The latest fortnightly face-to-face and SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which went from being the Coalition’s worst poll series to its best when Malcolm Turnbull took over, has given the government its weakest result since September. The Coalition is down 3.5% on the primary vote to 43.5%, but Labor is likewise down a point to a dismal 28%, with the Greens up two to 15%. On the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, the Coalition lead narrows from 56-44 to 55-45, while the previous election two-party result goes from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46. The accompanying press release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon team is outpolling Labor in South Australia, where the primary votes are Coalition 31.5%, Labor 21.5% and NXT 22.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3247.

Also out yesterday was a Galaxy automated phone poll of 506 respondents from Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax, conducted for the Courier-Mail, which recorded primary vote support for the beleaguered Palmer at a risible 2%. This compared with 50% for the Coalition and 27% for Labor, compared with 2013 election results of 41.3% for the LNP, 26.5% for Palmer and 18.2% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,714 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. He says he cares about local jobs, but Chris Pyne’s own department chooses to import 90% of their paper from overseas

  3. ‘ Govt IR plans include take-it-or-leave-it contracts and trading off penalty rates. ‘

    They couldn’t be that full of hubris, surely?

  4. JD@2549: I don’t disagree with a lot of that. There are all sorts of sexualities. For instance, heterosexual male cross-dressing has been around for ever and a day. The large Indian eunuch community dates back thousands of years. Etc, etc. And, if we are talking about a continuum of sexuality here, I struggle a bit to see what the cause is.

    But IMO, when a privileged political/journalistic insider like McGregor “comes out” as a transsexual, it’s a bit like “the only gay in the village”. No need to be “brave”: nobody seems to mind the slightest little bit: not even Tony Abbott. She’s far from the first prominent, successful Australian man to do this, and she won’t be the last. It’s no big deal IMO. And why all the attention-seeking?

  6. [3.Funnily enough, I kind of thought David Morrison was gay. I’m assuming he isn’t given the pathetic dummy spit by McGregor.]

    I’m confused about the Morrison choice he seems well respected but I don’t see why he should be an exception to my personal rule that no one who was a an officer should be eligible for a civilian award nor an office like governor or GG

  7. Speaking of economics, does anyone know whether increasing the GST by 50% to 15%, not passing on the proceeds to the States to fund Health and Education, and then using the proceeds to pay for Company Tax and Income Tax Cuts, will push the Budget further into Structural Deficit?

  10. [2548
    WWP
    Well so long as you forget the last time when they were in Government, set a stupid economic goal as their plan and then were extraordinarily failures.    ]

    Well the Rudd/Gillard Government was an extraordinarily successful Keynesian government, because Keynesian economics works, and the Rudd/Gillard Government was an extraordinarily bad Hayek/Friedman Government, because Hayek/Friedman neoliberal economics does NOT work.

    The sooner Labor abandons neoliberal beliefs around debt, deficit and taxation, the sooner it will lead to successful Labor governments.

    This Labor Opposition is decidedly pro-tax (in the sense of an equitable collective funding of social goods) as its policies and rhetoric around super, and multinational tax avoidance suggests.

    There are tentative signs that Shorten does indeed reject at least some aspects of neoliberal economics:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-to-unveil-10b-concrete-bank-to-fund-major-projects-20151007-gk3fas.html

  13. WeWantPaul @ 2556: No disputing your right to your personal rule on who should be Governors or GGs, but I’d have to say that some of the military vice-regals (like Michael Jeffrey, or John Sanderson in WA) seem to have made a better fist of the role than some of the civilians (like Peter Hollingworth, or the disastrous Richard Butler in Tasmania). In fact, Jeffrey was basically appointed to pick up the pieces after the Hollingworth debacle.

    And there’s this to be said for senior military officers: they can cope with the stultifying protocol that’s part of the job, having been trained in it.

  14. C@tmomma@2527

    lizzie,

    ‘Now, now, just think how jealous other people are to know that you have a diamond python in your garden. ‘

    I think I’ll call him Tony.

    You have a grudge against the Python? 😮

  15. [Same-sex marriage reform advocates within the Turnbull government have reacted angrily to the plans of some hardline conservatives to vote “no change” in Parliament even if a future plebiscite votes “yes”.

    Arrangements for the plebiscite are being worked through with a view to a final set of options within weeks.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-threatens-coalition-unity-20160127-gmf7j1.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

  16. [2541
    Kevin17
    I am very hopeful that Labor will not get into the tax-cuts auctions. Make the liberals look like spendthrifts.    ]

    I share your hope, especially given the Liberals are increasingly looking like spendthrifts spending poor people’s money on the rich.

  19. GG

    [Missed out again?]

    I got pretty close this year. The SA AOTY nominee is a good friend of mine. If it had’ve been me instead of him who did all the media interviews after the Bali bombing, who knows….

  20. BTW, the thing is that McGregor has been working in recent years as the personal media adviser and speechwriter to the Chief of Army: ie, until recently, Morrison himself.

    It’s an odd business. But, then, McGregor is an odd person. The Labor people I know have no time for her whatsoever.

  21. http://www.theland.com.au/story/3687480/gilbert-quits-over-native-veg/
    [Native Veg stoush sees Josh Gilbert resign as NSW Young Farmers chairman
    By ALEX DRUCE
    Jan. 26, 2016, 1 p.m.

    PROMINENT agriculture and climate campaigner Josh Gilbert has resigned as NSW Young Farmers chairman after alleging his philosophical disagreement on land clearing reform earned him threats of personal attacks.

    Mr Gilbert, 24, Nabiac near Foster, announced on social media on Tuesday he would stand down immediately from the position he has held for three years, citing a long-running philosophical rift over the NSW Farmers’ lobbying for an overhaul of the NSW Biodiversity Act, which manages native vegetation clearing.

    Mr Gilbert alleged he had also been contacted by a high-ranking non-staff member from NSW Farmers who warned that opposing the reforms would result in personal attacks.

    The association has campaigned for many years on the issue and is currently negotiating with state government to develop a policy to repeal the current laws.

    But Mr Gilbert – who represented Australia at the COP21 talks at Paris in November – said he felt the legislation would have negative ramifications for agriculture. ]

    An old article for context

    Young farmers rewrite NSW Farmers climate change policy
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-16/nsw-young-farmers-put-climate-change-on-agenda/6624996

  24. Bernadi should resign if he finds himself unable to vote as the vast majority of his electorate want.

    [Senator Cory Bernardi will vote against same-sex marriage no matter what the Australian public says.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-threatens-coalition-unity-20160127-gmf7j1.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq

  25. c@tmomma: all other things being equal, increasing the GST and using the revenue to fund other tax cuts should have a neutral or, at best, mildly positive impact on the structural and actual deficit.

    There is no urgent need – other than a political imperative – to have any income tax cuts in the foreseeable future. What is urgently required is more funding for state and territory education and health services. A case could also be made for reducing the rate of company tax, which could have a stimulatory effect. But not income tax cuts.

  26. mb

    [t’s an odd business. But, then, McGregor is an odd person. The Labor people I know have no time for her whatsoever.]

    What about the ‘Coalition’ people …

  28. meher baba @ 2554 – ok but the problem with your argument is that your criticism of Cate McGregor’s bahaviour as a person is inextricably tied up with her identity as a transGENDER (not transsexual – though they are not necessarily mutually exclusive) woman.

    When ‘traditional’ heterosexual identity (where a person’s biological sex and gender both conform to society’s expectations) is considered the norm, with any other gender identity existing outside that norm, then of course any expression of those gender identities can be considered “attention-seeking”, just as feminine homosexuals, ‘butch’ lesbians, straight-or-not women who don’t accept traditional conceptions of femininity such as make-up and thin bodies, or metrosexual/hipster men who embrace traditionally feminine fields like fashion and grooming are all often considered “attention-seeking.”

    When your whole life and identity is considered somewhat transgressive (lol) and non-conformist it can be almost impossible to NOT sound defiant.

  30. 2574

    Bernadi is a Senator. Therefore there would have to be opposition to marriage equality of just over 7% or less in order for it to be the will of enough of the SA voters for there to be no mandate for any SA Senator to oppose it.

  31. CTar1: I think McGregor nowadays runs more with the Libs than Labor. She (or, as it was then, he) was seen as a bit of a traitor by Labor friends.

  32. Meher baba – that is to say, that criticising McGregor’s treatment of other people is of course perfectly legitimate, but when you then bring her transgender identity into the equation, your argument becomes, at best, problematic.

  33. Any attempt to cut company tax is political suicide. The average punter is livid reading the stories of companies paying little or no tax.

    This is why Morrison always puts “if possible” in his co tax ravings. It will not be possible until people are convinced business is paying a fair share.

  34. JD@2578: but who is it who considers McGregor to be “transgressive”? She has been the darling of the MSM since she “came out”.

  35. ruawake@2583: I take your point re the politics, although those companies avoiding paying company tax altogether aren’t going to be advantaged by the rate being cut.

    Income tax cuts also please the business sector (because they reduce the pressure to agree to wage increases).

    Company tax cuts, unlike income tax cuts, can help to create jobs.

  36. mb – I wasn’t wondering about political MacGregor’s political allegiance.

    Just why you thought “The Labor people I know have no time for her whatsoever” was relevant.

  37. Mb,

    From that Coory report earlier, the Libs are going to make it a “Fight Back” like package.

    Workers aren’t going to wear a cut to services and cuts to penalty rates while the Government proposes no action on wealthy companies not paying their fair share of tax.

  38. [2584
    meher baba
    but who is it who considers McGregor to be “transgressive”    ]

    Well, you for a start:

    it can be quite problematic when they want to assert the right to be considered to be women. I’ve had two experiences at work in which avowed transsexuals – one awaiting the op and one who said they probably weren’t going to – wanting to use the women’s toilets. Quite a few women weren’t comfortable about this and fair enough. This stuff is quite tricky…

    Secondly, and this is based on experiences with half a dozen transsexuals who were reasonably successful men who sought gender reassignment in mid-life, there seems to be a strong element of attention-seeking in their personalities. It isn’t enough for them simply to change their identity and live quietly. They demand lots of praise about how “brave” they are.

  39. [2575
    meher baba

    c@tmomma: all other things being equal, increasing the GST and using the revenue to fund other tax cuts should have a neutral or, at best, mildly positive impact on the structural and actual deficit.]

    Why?

    As the wage/consumption share of the economy is gradually receding, consumption- relate tax will also decline in relative terms. This has also been the experience with the current GST. It was promoted as a growth tax. It has not turned out that way.

    We should more effectively tax the income that flows to capital. At present, this income receives concessional tax treatment. Were these concessions repealed there would be less pressure to tax personal income and (its close relative) household consumption.

  40. CTar1@2586: its because I once was part of a conversation in which Canberra Labot types who have had dealings with her (when she was a he) were talking about her in a negative way. I’ve never heard Libs discussing her.

  43. meher baba @ 2585,

    ‘ Company tax cuts, unlike income tax cuts, can help to create jobs.’

    They can also create fatter profits for the companies who do not choose to create jobs with their extra money.

  44. [Company tax cuts, unlike income tax cuts, can help to create jobs.]

    I think this is an exaggeration.

    Why would a company hire more people just because it has more after tax cash?

    The business has not expanded, no more sales, no more contracts, just less tax.

  45. [Well the Rudd/Gillard Government was an extraordinarily successful Keynesian government, because Keynesian economics works, and the Rudd/Gillard Government was an extraordinarily bad Hayek/Friedman Government, because Hayek/Friedman neoliberal economics does NOT work.

    The sooner Labor abandons neoliberal beliefs around debt, deficit and taxation, the sooner it will lead to successful Labor governments.

    This Labor Opposition is decidedly pro-tax (in the sense of an equitable collective funding of social goods) as its policies and rhetoric around super, and multinational tax avoidance suggests.
    ]

    I’m not an economist, I’ve been involved in used cars, politics and the law but there are levels even I will not sink to.

    RGR as a Government break into to economic eras, ignoring the honeymoon where they thought Keatings boom would continue for ever.

    First is their response to the GFC.

    As far as I can tell it was breaktakingly brilliant, the very best and best value GFC response on the globe. But you ask anyone about it and the response will usually be on party lines, with swinging voters (in my limited non scientific experience) the response seems to be oh I guess it was ok but all that waste on school halls and the pink batts fiasco.

    From then on they promised to deliver a surplus and save jobs. Noone can possibly deny they failed spectacularly on delivering a surplus. It was their stated primary aim, and they failed, massively, not even close laughing stock.

    Now if they had sold successfully the GFC response and not said they were going for a surplus your analysis is probably pretty spot on. Despite tying their own hands behind their own backs with the surplus work I don’t think I’d argue they did badly and all the things they didn’t even really tell Australian’s they were trying to do.

    [The sooner Labor abandons neoliberal beliefs around debt, deficit and taxation, the sooner it will lead to successful Labor governments.]

    You may or may not be right about this, I’m on your side so I have a predisposition or bias to agree with this. But looking at an election in a 2 – 10 month window it is just too late, Howard / RGR / Abbott and now Turnbull have consistently and passionately told the public it is incredibly absolutely totally important to have a surplus and only dangerous irresponsible clowns run deficits. Many Australians would say even during a GFC.

    Labor cannot take an economic platform whose credibility rests entirely upon the acceptance by the public of a whole knew way of thinking most of them haven’t even been introduced too.

    Would it be good if labor had introduced them to it? Sh1t yes. Would it be good if there was wide spread acceptance? F’ning oath it would. But the reality is you have a public long long long conditioned by both liberal and labor to expect a short sharp plan to surplus. I would go as far as to say many Australians including swinging voters and labor voters would not only expect a short sharp path to surplus but a bit of pain and austerity on the way.

    In part because that is what they’ve been told for decades and in part because it just makes sense, you take the trip to barely and come home to find you are only getting 1/2 the shifts you are used to you pull your f’ning belt in an push through that austerity sh1t.

    You ask them do they want any of that austerity sh1t and the answer is gonna be no, you ask them if they can man up (please excuse the sexism explicit in that expression) pull their belts in and tough it out when needed and you’ll have a queue of tattooed bogans, many with a new Zealand accent 10 blocks long.

    The story they’ve been told may well be wrong, the comparison of the nations budget to a family’s budget may well be ridiculous (but it is very powerful as humans we find the nearest ‘like’ we can comprehend almost always) but that is your starting base.

    You can’t change your whole country’s paradigm for the next election, or the election after that, you are unlikely in 10 years time.

    Anyone who has already left the ‘surplus necessary / austerity good’ paradigm is already in the Labor or Green camp and they will whinge and moan like hell, but they are already gonna vote Labor or Green and Shorten needs to just ignore those clowns.

  48. JD@2588. I can’t see that my comments could be construed as representing transsexuals as “transgressive”. To be blunt, I have found all the ones I have known to be something of a pain. And, as I said, attention-seeking: finding the whole thing a bit of a thrill and trying hard to shock and provoke people, but mostly failing to do so. As I said, like the “only gay in the village”. A great deal of the fun seems to be about wearing the clothes, makeup, stockings, etc: they don’t tend to go for jeans and a unisex look. Are they “women trapped in men’s bodies”. They all tend to say they are. I’m not entirely sure what that really means: I take your point that it’s difficult for most of us to know. But are they “free” after an operation? Many women struggle to accept them as women. They can’t ever give birth or have periods.

    I bear no malice towards them. But, as I have previously said, I struggle entirely to understand their “cause”, other than in terms of the good old general proposition that people should be free to express themselves in any way that doesn’t harm others.

  49. Sorry for all they typos barely is meant to be Bali and other than that and my breaking into a hereto for unexplored bogan personality the rest kinda has the message I’m trying to get across.

    Do you want a GST increase? No
    Would you pay more GST, say 15% to help Australia get back to a surplus and deliver better health, education and disability outcomes? Yes of course.

  50. So, was there prior informed consent?

    Was the dog willing?

    Dogs can’t talk of course but they are perfectly capable of communicating the basics relating to consent.

    Did the tail wag?

    If so, let he who is without sin cast the first stone.

    I remember some decades ago a League player who thought it was a bit of a lark to shit in a shoe.

    I believe that it was a mate’s shoe.

    And that the mate did not give consent.

    Of course the shit in the shoe was only the tip of the iceberg. They trashed the accommodation in which they were staying and the maitresse d’establishment went public with their deeds of derring do.

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