ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

ReachTEL finds no indication that the government’s travails over the new year have done any harm to its standing with the voters.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for the Seven Network supports Roy Morgan and Essential Research in finding nothing too radical has happened over the new year break. The poll records the Coalition’s two-party lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last poll on November 26. That’s all we have at this stage, but hopefully full results will be on the website soon.

UPDATE: Here we go. On the primary vote, the Coalition goes from 48.8% to 48.5%, while Labor goes from 31.1% to 31.8%, and the Greens go from 11.2% to 10.8%. A little surprisingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister question has widened considerably, from 71.3-28.7 to 80.8-19.2.

UPDATE 2 (26/1/16): The latest fortnightly face-to-face and SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which went from being the Coalition’s worst poll series to its best when Malcolm Turnbull took over, has given the government its weakest result since September. The Coalition is down 3.5% on the primary vote to 43.5%, but Labor is likewise down a point to a dismal 28%, with the Greens up two to 15%. On the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, the Coalition lead narrows from 56-44 to 55-45, while the previous election two-party result goes from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46. The accompanying press release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon team is outpolling Labor in South Australia, where the primary votes are Coalition 31.5%, Labor 21.5% and NXT 22.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3247.

Also out yesterday was a Galaxy automated phone poll of 506 respondents from Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax, conducted for the Courier-Mail, which recorded primary vote support for the beleaguered Palmer at a risible 2%. This compared with 50% for the Coalition and 27% for Labor, compared with 2013 election results of 41.3% for the LNP, 26.5% for Palmer and 18.2% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,714 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Preferred PM results are up on The Age

    [
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as voters’ choice as better prime minister has grown a whopping 19 per cent over the Christmas and New Year break, with the Opposition Leader plunging to his lowest ever rating in a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network.

    Asked who they thought made a better prime minister, 80.8 per cent of voters nominated Mr Turnbull and just 19.2 per cent nominated Mr Shorten, whereas on November 26, 71.3 per cent of respondents had nominated Mr Turnbull and 28.7 per cent chose Mr Shorten.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-extends-huge-lead-over-bill-shorten-in-first-poll-for-2016-20160122-gmc9w7.html#ixzz3xxaQYY22
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  5. From previous thread

    Posted Friday, January 22, 2016 at 7:33 pm | PERMALINK
    In the absence of any evidence suggesting Nick Ross has a polticsl barrow to push, he appears to be most concerned with the technical specifications & performance of the NBN.

    If this is correct, I don’t see much reason (particularly based on the evidence of the tape) to dispute either his version of events nor his reasoning.

    Given also that we know that the Coalition has been placing significant pressure on the ABC, it seems reasonable too to accept Ross’ argument that he was advised to ‘balance’ his articles to please a political audience rather than provide objective fact.

    If the above logic is incorrect, I would look forward to some objective writing in the msm to disabuse my mistaken belief.

  8. Must be a worry to the coalition that the preferred PM result doesn’t translate into at least a 60-40 lead on TPP. Will be very interesting to see what happens when King Mal comes under a bit of pressure.

  9. “What’s your favourite type of lettuce”

    This is turning into Gillard all over again.

    Not to mention Beazley, Crean, Latham, Swan and pretty much all of the ALP establishment who’ve suffered from the same institutionalised malaise that’s crippled the party since 1996.

    Albo might be part of the same group but if the party are smart enough to give him a go and let him off the leash he might be able to make a bit of a fight out of it instead of where things are currently heading.

  11. Had a bit of a look by Google at the “posting too fast” message in relation to WordPress, which I think is the software underlying Crikey forums.

    Looks as though it is triggered when it appears the forum is being spammed. The antispam software will put any suspected spam in a spam folder so it isn’t seen by ordinary users like us.

    So, if you are of a conspiratorial frame of mind, evil forces may be trying to shut the blog down by rapid firing single word posts at PB to shut us, the great and the good, out of the scene.

  12. spur212@9

    “What’s your favourite type of lettuce”

    This is turning into Gillard all over again.

    Not to mention Beazley, Crean, Latham, Swan and pretty much all of the ALP establishment who’ve suffered from the same institutionalised malaise that’s crippled the party since 1996.

    Albo might be part of the same group but if the party are smart enough to give him a go and let him off the leash he might be able to make a bit of a fight out of it instead of where things are currently heading.

    Good to see you again spur212. Where have you been?

  19. Well looks like all the “honeymoon over” and the “narrowing” with comments as to why where just wishful thinking and not thought out analysis. Anyway on Holidays OS for a month as of tomorrow and leave the country a happy man. As John Howard said the Australian Public nearly always get it right.

  22. Good evening all,

    Seems as if it has been a interesting day trying to post !

    Once again I think this poll reflects the situation where people are still not interested in politics as holidays wind down.

    I think posters need to consider that the huge majority of voters are not political tragics like us here and have not paid one ounce of interest in the political ups and downs over Christmas.

    They just do not care and that is something we need to keep in mind atm. It will save a lot of stress if posters just relax for the next few weeks and after a few more polls and a return to normality in the real world then the real picture will start to develop. Things may well stay the same but getting ulcers from worry this early is just not a worthwhile use of ones time.

    I am sure the usual doomsayers will be out and about calling for the head of Shorten but at this early stage of the year they would do just as good for themselves sucking lemons.

    Have a great night all.

    Cheers.

  24. ‘forces may be trying to shut the blog down by rapid firing single word posts at PB to shut us, the great and the good, out of the scene.’

    I believe TBA did something with computers. I thought he was getting more and more frustrated, not so much (as he stated) by the fact that PBers didn’t understand his point of view, but because the continued challenge to his beliefs he was starting to realise he was wrong about everything.

    As his blustering way to enlightenment has failed he has taken the technical path to silence his critics.

  25. The right wing nutters will be freaking about the PM numbers. Who knows, Turnbull might actually do something – for once.

  26. “King Mal comes under a bit of pressure.” just like King Tony did? No.
    “As John Howard said the Australian Public nearly always get it right.” self fulfilling prophecy if I even heard one when he was the 2nd sitting PM to loose his seat.
    “Posta of no substance” – this one is definitely.

  29. Keyman. Howard even said that after his defeat and loss of his seat, never saw a politician with act with such grace ever. You may very well hate the guy but non of our ex politicians handled and understood why heyt lost as well as Howard. All of them from Whitlam on spat the dummy big time, Whitlam with some genuine grievances I will grant you.

  30. turnbull wins because there is no opposition

    opposition worries about guilt put on them by its leader about events of 5 years back

    public has v short memory … stand down bill, no pain all gain

  32. Bill’s in trouble because he mouths off too much.
    Like his response to using super to pay help…Kept implying that Libs were raiding super, to fund universities when it had nothing to do with university funding

  35. More labor ( + 0. 7 ) and greens ( + 2.7 ) voters prefer Shorten as PM in this poll than in the November poll with a rise of 1.8% in coalition voters supporting Turnbull.

    For what, if anything that is worth.

    Cheers.

  36. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/01/lapoinya-scrapes-barrel-of-tasmanias.html

    Lapoinya Scrapes The Barrel Of Tasmania’s Forests Conflict
    My (rather long) analysis of a silly overheated logging scrap in my home state.

    —
    Oh and as for the ReachTEL, my aggregate has been switched back on at 54.3 to Coalition, to become 54.4 at midnight tonight on reset. That’s its highest value for the term.

    If Newspoll replicates this in terms of the leadership scores then Shorten’s in for a very gruesome week. For all the stuff about it being too late to change horses there must be some point of polling at which he would be thrown under the bus; I just don’t think we’re there yet.

  38. The gold standard for geace in defeat is Julia Gillard. No contest.

    Also, Howard was a warmonger and an exploiter of defenceless people for political gain. He was probably glad he escaped without being lynched

  39. I think it’s absurd to say that Gough Whitlam was anything but graceful in the face of grave violations of constitutional norms. He would have been well within his rights to stand his ground, tell the GG to shove it, sack the GG, and serve the rest of his term. He didn’t do that because he was unwilling to make a conservative-induced chaos even worse.

  41. Doyley@35

    More labor ( + 0. 7 ) and greens ( + 2.7 ) voters prefer Shorten as PM in this poll than in the November poll with a rise of 1.8% in coalition voters supporting Turnbull.

    For what, if anything that is worth.

    Cheers.

    There seems to be some kind of issue there. Based on those party scores and the primaries Shorten’s better-PM should be at least 25 not 19. Something is wrong – maybe the ALP scores are the wrong way around. I’ve queried it.

  42. Can someone explain how there can be a blow-out in Preferred Prime Minister but the Lib vote actually shrinks (slightly) What is going on?

  45. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1h1 hour ago
    #ReachTEL Poll Shorten: Approve 13.8 (-6.8) Disapprove 57.4 (+9.9)

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1h1 hour ago
    #ReachTEL Poll Turnbull: Approve 53.6 (+5.4) Disapprove 12.5 (-2.3)

    It’s clear that if Bill Shorten stood aside and released the shackles on the ALP, the 2PP would narrow.

  47. Can someone explain how there can be a blow-out in Preferred Prime Minister but the Lib vote actually shrinks (slightly) What is going on?

    Malcolm Turnbull is more popular than his party. Bill Shorten is less popular than his party.

  50. [ It’s sad that Melissa Parke is leaving parliament. She ought to be running the show. ]
    Man I wish I coulda got odds about one of the anti-Labor clones saying that before the end of the first page

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