The first ReachTEL poll of the year for the Seven Network supports Roy Morgan and Essential Research in finding nothing too radical has happened over the new year break. The poll records the Coalition’s two-party lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last poll on November 26. That’s all we have at this stage, but hopefully full results will be on the website soon.
UPDATE: Here we go. On the primary vote, the Coalition goes from 48.8% to 48.5%, while Labor goes from 31.1% to 31.8%, and the Greens go from 11.2% to 10.8%. A little surprisingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister question has widened considerably, from 71.3-28.7 to 80.8-19.2.
UPDATE 2 (26/1/16): The latest fortnightly face-to-face and SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which went from being the Coalition’s worst poll series to its best when Malcolm Turnbull took over, has given the government its weakest result since September. The Coalition is down 3.5% on the primary vote to 43.5%, but Labor is likewise down a point to a dismal 28%, with the Greens up two to 15%. On the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, the Coalition lead narrows from 56-44 to 55-45, while the previous election two-party result goes from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46. The accompanying press release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon team is outpolling Labor in South Australia, where the primary votes are Coalition 31.5%, Labor 21.5% and NXT 22.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3247.
Also out yesterday was a Galaxy automated phone poll of 506 respondents from Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax, conducted for the Courier-Mail, which recorded primary vote support for the beleaguered Palmer at a risible 2%. This compared with 50% for the Coalition and 27% for Labor, compared with 2013 election results of 41.3% for the LNP, 26.5% for Palmer and 18.2% for Labor.
shorten is problem not solution esp leadership
he has conned party and self
Double D Election in July Please.
Bill Short-term is pure, unabated electoral poison.
Everyone else is attacking bill.
Inc Trolls.
[“OK Rex, so what exactly do you propose he does?”]
Stand in front of a fast moving bus
Hello TBA, I see that you have once again chosen to venture into this den of leftie heathens.
The hyenas are out in force tonight
“You’re about as subtle as a fucking train wreck. On a boat.”
― Doug Walker
Steve,
how can I avoid the bait of a 55%/45% Reachtel?
It’s like honey to bears, or strawberrys to pigs.
Kirsty Needham @KirstyLNeedham 25m25 minutes ago
Mike Baird sounds warning over anti-immigration politics in Australia Day speech http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-sounds-warning-over-antiimmigration-politics-in-australia-day-speech-20160122-gmbzby.html … via @smh
TBA makes this quotation spring to mind.
[” … civilisation demands both the freedom to let the village idiot speak, and the universal discernment to know, it is the village idiot speaking”.]
My how the years fly by these days . Seems like only yesterday TBA was gorn for a sabbatical and R&R .
TBA you are a liar. You said you wouldn’t be back and that is a fact.
Thank heavens you are back TBA. It’s tough being the resident troll 🙂
That’s the trouble with the Right, can’t be trusted to keep a promise longer than a couple of days.
How bleedin’ predictable. The Greek Chorus/Voices of Doom have reappeared for this thread but were silent on the Essential thread.
Just as well the FPLP don’t take any heed of the Usual Suspects on PB.
He’s too ambitious to descend for the good of something more important than his ego. There are other high level roles in which would be useful. He won’t be satisfied with those though. He’s determined to push towards the summit even though many sherpas will die in the process.
davidwh
[ Thank heavens you are back TBA. It’s tough being the resident troll 🙂 ]
Don’t flatter yourself david – TotalBlitheringArsehat has you beat six ways from Sunday in the troglodyte stakes.
davidwh
[
Thank heavens you are back TBA. It’s tough being the resident troll :)]
Sadly your performance review shows a failure to reach the level of Diet Troll , Troll Lite or even Claytons Troll . Best advice is to leave it to the experts 😆
Good bye Oil & Gas !
Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway 2m2 minutes ago
Here we go… Moody’s places the ratings of 120 oil and gas companies on review for downgrade.
Shorten needed to come back call the Royal commission a witch hunt and all that but he needed to leave the door open for some kind of union over site committee or even get one of his trusted to float it, elections are one in the middle.
zoidlord
[
Good bye Oil & Gas !]
Not yet, just the high cost blighters. Saudis started a while back pumping like crap to bankrupt the frackers menace that had been screwing them. A bonus for them that low prices makes life way harder for their mortal enemy, Renewable energy.
[“TBA you are a liar. You said you wouldn’t be back and that is a fact.”]
Actually that’s not a fact.. it’s something you made up mate.
Steelydan –
…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-12/bill-shorten-face-union-royal-commission-questions-return-leave/7082496
And the News Ltd take on it:
…
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/bill-shorten-to-turn-on-corrupt-unions-as-part-of-election-strategy/news-story/6e126206298b9d5cc46808e2d50c7188
TBA, your are a liar, you said:
‘As a result this year I have decided that a majority of my time will be much better spent out in the real world smelling the flowers, getting some rays and enjoying life at it’s fullest rather than sitting in here debating with idiots.’
To be fair to TBA he never explicitly said he was leaving, merely that he’d be spending less time here.
If you are writing a comment that is just an attack on another commenter, why not just sit on your hands instead. It’s much more rewarding for the rest of us.
And you’ll get warm hands.
OK Im out of here back in a month, 55/45 what a lovely number, very very quite tonight 🙂
Glad to see ya back TBA
Did anyone really believe TBA? He’s just another rightie liar
TrueBlueAussie@52
My understanding is that you can’t have a double dissolution as late as July.
The latest the DD trigger can be pulled is sometime in May.
Fair enough Jackol, he has go to get the message out then.
[ Did anyone really believe TBA? He’s just another rightie liar ]
He just gets a kick out of raising people’s hopes and then disappointing them.
In other words, a typical Tory.
And I see Stooliedan is now doing the same.
Raaraa – with a really long election campaign it seems it is technically possible to hold a DD election called in May for early July.
To TBA this makes some kind of sense, but an 8 week election campaign for nominally a DD just sounds like a nightmare for all concerned, particularly including Turnbull. And the budget turns into a fiasco (or more of a fiasco). Meh. Not happening IMO.
Either we find out in the next couple of weeks about a surprise DD in March or we’re going to a regular House/half-Senate election in September is still my bet.
Nicholas at 66
I think that is the case with most politicians.
Parke leaving is a golden opportunity for the Greens. Her profile and conscience were the only thing stopping them from taking Freo.
[“My understanding is that you can’t have a double dissolution as late as July.
The latest the DD trigger can be pulled is sometime in May.”]
Oh God… not again..
This is the last time I repeat this, I promise.
A double D election called in May can be held in July 2016 with both the house and senate elections lineing up perfectly so that the next federal election after than can be held in early 2019.
Prefix@84
Oh, maybe that, but also the sanity of the voters.
Raaraa @79
The double dissolution could occur in May, with an extended campaign and an election in July. That schedule is unlikely, since the election campaign would last for 8-10 weeks rather than the usual 5 weeks, plus there might be problems with passing an interim budget.
I can’t believe that Turncoat would be so stupid to call an 8 week election campaign. But if he is, I would bet $1,000 that Labor would be in Government following that election.
Morrison stated this week that the government will run full term…believe it or not…he is a Liberal
The Greens got 12% in Freo at the last election, I doubt they’ll suddenly take the seat
[“Parke leaving is a golden opportunity for the Greens. Her profile and conscience were the only thing stopping them from taking Freo.”]
Yes… that… and their Primary Vote of 12%
Details, details.
[Morrison stated this week that the government will run full term…believe it or not…he is a Liberal]
Malcolm Turnbull will call an early election or even a DD if he and his advisers think it is their best chance of winning. Otherwise it will run full term. Nobody knows when the election will happen – not even Turnbull. And certainly not Morrison.
Bemused
Last election Parke got 38%, the greens got 18%. A big task to turn that around but certainly doable given Freo’s pretty much ground zero for Ludlam’s fan club. Unless the ALP get another candidate of Parke’s calibre and politics it is definitely on.
Jackol @82
According to this, Antony Green says that having an 8 week election means Turnbull has to pass an interim budget bill first to keep the first months of the financial year supplied. I’m doubting it’ll happen too.
I see the Kill Bill video is being flogged to death on PB again. I have my doubts that the ALP can win the next election, and I am not sure the voters deserve an ALP government yet. While a win would be nice, perhaps letting the masses enjoy a Lib government during a recession might cure them of personality politics.
Nichjolas @ 66,
‘ He’s too ambitious to descend for the good of something more important than his ego.’
You can make exactly the same specious argument for Richard Di Natale to step down from the leadership of The Greens. He has made absolutely no impression on their vote, whatsoever, since he became leader, stubbornly stuck around 10% as it is. But that might involve some serious reflection upon your own favoured political party, and that just doesn’t appear to be your game.
When will the deniers admit they are wrong?
[” … civilisation demands both the freedom to let the village idiot speak, and the universal discernment to know, it is the village idiot speaking”.]
But who knew there were sooooooo many villages?
Prefix@93
You are not factoring in the sanity of the voters.
I would not be taking any Greens’ advice on who should lead the Labor Party, nor Lib trolls.