ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

ReachTEL finds no indication that the government’s travails over the new year have done any harm to its standing with the voters.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for the Seven Network supports Roy Morgan and Essential Research in finding nothing too radical has happened over the new year break. The poll records the Coalition’s two-party lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last poll on November 26. That’s all we have at this stage, but hopefully full results will be on the website soon.

UPDATE: Here we go. On the primary vote, the Coalition goes from 48.8% to 48.5%, while Labor goes from 31.1% to 31.8%, and the Greens go from 11.2% to 10.8%. A little surprisingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister question has widened considerably, from 71.3-28.7 to 80.8-19.2.

UPDATE 2 (26/1/16): The latest fortnightly face-to-face and SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which went from being the Coalition’s worst poll series to its best when Malcolm Turnbull took over, has given the government its weakest result since September. The Coalition is down 3.5% on the primary vote to 43.5%, but Labor is likewise down a point to a dismal 28%, with the Greens up two to 15%. On the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, the Coalition lead narrows from 56-44 to 55-45, while the previous election two-party result goes from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46. The accompanying press release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon team is outpolling Labor in South Australia, where the primary votes are Coalition 31.5%, Labor 21.5% and NXT 22.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3247.

Also out yesterday was a Galaxy automated phone poll of 506 respondents from Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax, conducted for the Courier-Mail, which recorded primary vote support for the beleaguered Palmer at a risible 2%. This compared with 50% for the Coalition and 27% for Labor, compared with 2013 election results of 41.3% for the LNP, 26.5% for Palmer and 18.2% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,714 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. TBA makes this quotation spring to mind.
    [” … civilisation demands both the freedom to let the village idiot speak, and the universal discernment to know, it is the village idiot speaking”.]

  2. How bleedin’ predictable. The Greek Chorus/Voices of Doom have reappeared for this thread but were silent on the Essential thread.

    Just as well the FPLP don’t take any heed of the Usual Suspects on PB.

  3. It is surely now not if but when Bill Shorten realises his time is up.

    He’s too ambitious to descend for the good of something more important than his ego. There are other high level roles in which would be useful. He won’t be satisfied with those though. He’s determined to push towards the summit even though many sherpas will die in the process.

  4. davidwh

    [ Thank heavens you are back TBA. It’s tough being the resident troll 🙂 ]

    Don’t flatter yourself david – TotalBlitheringArsehat has you beat six ways from Sunday in the troglodyte stakes.

  5. davidwh
    [
    Thank heavens you are back TBA. It’s tough being the resident troll :)]
    Sadly your performance review shows a failure to reach the level of Diet Troll , Troll Lite or even Claytons Troll . Best advice is to leave it to the experts 😆

  6. Good bye Oil & Gas !

    Tracy Alloway ‏@tracyalloway 2m2 minutes ago

    Here we go… Moody’s places the ratings of 120 oil and gas companies on review for downgrade.

  7. Shorten needed to come back call the Royal commission a witch hunt and all that but he needed to leave the door open for some kind of union over site committee or even get one of his trusted to float it, elections are one in the middle.

  8. zoidlord

    [
    Good bye Oil & Gas !]
    Not yet, just the high cost blighters. Saudis started a while back pumping like crap to bankrupt the frackers menace that had been screwing them. A bonus for them that low prices makes life way harder for their mortal enemy, Renewable energy.

  9. [“TBA you are a liar. You said you wouldn’t be back and that is a fact.”]

    Actually that’s not a fact.. it’s something you made up mate.

  10. Steelydan –

    but he needed to leave the door open for some kind of union over site committee

    The Federal Opposition previously released an alternative proposal for union reform, in anticipation of the final report by the royal commission.

    Mr Shorten has proposed tougher penalties for wrongdoing, as well as additional powers for ASIC.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-12/bill-shorten-face-union-royal-commission-questions-return-leave/7082496

    And the News Ltd take on it:

    Bill Shorten to turn on corrupt unions as part of election strategy

    The range of new oversight bodies and disciplinary measures also is aimed at ending the ugly revelations of improper union practices which have tainted the entire union movement and made recruitment harder.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/bill-shorten-to-turn-on-corrupt-unions-as-part-of-election-strategy/news-story/6e126206298b9d5cc46808e2d50c7188

  11. TBA, your are a liar, you said:

    ‘As a result this year I have decided that a majority of my time will be much better spent out in the real world smelling the flowers, getting some rays and enjoying life at it’s fullest rather than sitting in here debating with idiots.’

  12. If you are writing a comment that is just an attack on another commenter, why not just sit on your hands instead. It’s much more rewarding for the rest of us.

    And you’ll get warm hands.

  13. TrueBlueAussie@52

    Double D Election in July Please.

    Bill Short-term is pure, unabated electoral poison.

    My understanding is that you can’t have a double dissolution as late as July.

    The latest the DD trigger can be pulled is sometime in May.

  14. [ Did anyone really believe TBA? He’s just another rightie liar ]

    He just gets a kick out of raising people’s hopes and then disappointing them.

    In other words, a typical Tory.

    And I see Stooliedan is now doing the same.

  15. Raaraa – with a really long election campaign it seems it is technically possible to hold a DD election called in May for early July.

    To TBA this makes some kind of sense, but an 8 week election campaign for nominally a DD just sounds like a nightmare for all concerned, particularly including Turnbull. And the budget turns into a fiasco (or more of a fiasco). Meh. Not happening IMO.

    Either we find out in the next couple of weeks about a surprise DD in March or we’re going to a regular House/half-Senate election in September is still my bet.

  16. Parke leaving is a golden opportunity for the Greens. Her profile and conscience were the only thing stopping them from taking Freo.

  17. [“My understanding is that you can’t have a double dissolution as late as July.

    The latest the DD trigger can be pulled is sometime in May.”]

    Oh God… not again..

    This is the last time I repeat this, I promise.

    A double D election called in May can be held in July 2016 with both the house and senate elections lineing up perfectly so that the next federal election after than can be held in early 2019.

  18. Prefix@84

    Parke leaving is a golden opportunity for the Greens. Her profile and conscience were the only thing stopping them from taking Freo.

    Oh, maybe that, but also the sanity of the voters.

  19. Raaraa @79

    The double dissolution could occur in May, with an extended campaign and an election in July. That schedule is unlikely, since the election campaign would last for 8-10 weeks rather than the usual 5 weeks, plus there might be problems with passing an interim budget.

  20. I can’t believe that Turncoat would be so stupid to call an 8 week election campaign. But if he is, I would bet $1,000 that Labor would be in Government following that election.

  21. [“Parke leaving is a golden opportunity for the Greens. Her profile and conscience were the only thing stopping them from taking Freo.”]

    Yes… that… and their Primary Vote of 12%

    Details, details.

  22. [Morrison stated this week that the government will run full term…believe it or not…he is a Liberal]

    Malcolm Turnbull will call an early election or even a DD if he and his advisers think it is their best chance of winning. Otherwise it will run full term. Nobody knows when the election will happen – not even Turnbull. And certainly not Morrison.

  23. Bemused

    Last election Parke got 38%, the greens got 18%. A big task to turn that around but certainly doable given Freo’s pretty much ground zero for Ludlam’s fan club. Unless the ALP get another candidate of Parke’s calibre and politics it is definitely on.

  24. Jackol @82

    According to this, Antony Green says that having an 8 week election means Turnbull has to pass an interim budget bill first to keep the first months of the financial year supplied. I’m doubting it’ll happen too.

  25. I see the Kill Bill video is being flogged to death on PB again. I have my doubts that the ALP can win the next election, and I am not sure the voters deserve an ALP government yet. While a win would be nice, perhaps letting the masses enjoy a Lib government during a recession might cure them of personality politics.

  26. Nichjolas @ 66,

    ‘ He’s too ambitious to descend for the good of something more important than his ego.’

    You can make exactly the same specious argument for Richard Di Natale to step down from the leadership of The Greens. He has made absolutely no impression on their vote, whatsoever, since he became leader, stubbornly stuck around 10% as it is. But that might involve some serious reflection upon your own favoured political party, and that just doesn’t appear to be your game.

  27. [” … civilisation demands both the freedom to let the village idiot speak, and the universal discernment to know, it is the village idiot speaking”.]

    But who knew there were sooooooo many villages?

  28. Prefix@93

    Bemused

    Last election Parke got 38%, the greens got 18%. A big task to turn that around but certainly doable given Freo’s pretty much ground zero for Ludlam’s fan club. Unless the ALP get another candidate of Parke’s calibre and politics it is definitely on.

    You are not factoring in the sanity of the voters.

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