ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

ReachTEL finds no indication that the government’s travails over the new year have done any harm to its standing with the voters.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for the Seven Network supports Roy Morgan and Essential Research in finding nothing too radical has happened over the new year break. The poll records the Coalition’s two-party lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last poll on November 26. That’s all we have at this stage, but hopefully full results will be on the website soon.

UPDATE: Here we go. On the primary vote, the Coalition goes from 48.8% to 48.5%, while Labor goes from 31.1% to 31.8%, and the Greens go from 11.2% to 10.8%. A little surprisingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the all-or-nothing preferred prime minister question has widened considerably, from 71.3-28.7 to 80.8-19.2.

UPDATE 2 (26/1/16): The latest fortnightly face-to-face and SMS poll from Roy Morgan, which went from being the Coalition’s worst poll series to its best when Malcolm Turnbull took over, has given the government its weakest result since September. The Coalition is down 3.5% on the primary vote to 43.5%, but Labor is likewise down a point to a dismal 28%, with the Greens up two to 15%. On the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred figure, the Coalition lead narrows from 56-44 to 55-45, while the previous election two-party result goes from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46. The accompanying press release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon team is outpolling Labor in South Australia, where the primary votes are Coalition 31.5%, Labor 21.5% and NXT 22.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3247.

Also out yesterday was a Galaxy automated phone poll of 506 respondents from Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax, conducted for the Courier-Mail, which recorded primary vote support for the beleaguered Palmer at a risible 2%. This compared with 50% for the Coalition and 27% for Labor, compared with 2013 election results of 41.3% for the LNP, 26.5% for Palmer and 18.2% for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,714 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 55
1 2 3 4 55
  1. C@tmomma, 96

    To be fair to Di Natale his vote went up to 14.5% on the Bludgertrack, which is the highest the Greens vote has ever had on Bludgertrack iirc

  2. Sorry, I was looking at 2010 somehow (fat thumbs).

    In any case they got 23% at the senate rerun election which has to count for something.

  3. Puff @ 95,

    ‘ I see the Kill Bill video is being flogged to death on PB again.’

    I think I might nominate it for the Rotten Tomatoes Awards. 😀

    ‘ I have my doubts that the ALP can win the next election, and I am not sure the voters deserve an ALP government yet. While a win would be nice, perhaps letting the masses enjoy a Lib government during a recession might cure them of personality politics.’

    Malcolm and Scotty might have to make some decisions of their own because I am sure Labor won’t be giving them any suggestions about how to cope with GFC 2.0. Martin Parkinson might advise they introduce a Carbon Tax and other helpful suggestions from the Henry Review, however. 😉

  4. Of course Turnbull is the darling of the masses. Remember this includes people too dumb to vaccinate their kids against polio.

  5. 82

    A DD in March mean not Senate election reform and short Senate terms.

    A DD in July means practically full length Senate terms and provides the opportunity for Senate election reform.

  6. Whether a 55/45 result like this will lead to an early election depends largely on whether the PM believes that it’s a transitory phenomenon which won’t last until September.

    My guess is that Mr Turnbull is pretty confident in his ability to sustain these numbers. People are seeing in him what they want to see: good old fashioned confirmation bias. He probably sees the budget as an opportunity, not a threat.

    And it’s not as if a fall in the polls is governed by some inevitable equation like Newton’s law of gravity. Even Mr Rudd, who seems to be regarded by many here as The Great Satan, managed to stay well ahead in the polls for a good long time.

  7. The WA senate election had the Libs on 28%, Labor on 25% and the Greens on 23% (along with the Nats on 0.5% and PUP on 10.9% for what it’s worth), which is a strong showing for the Greens and weak for Labor, but the Greens had the added factor of Ludlammania and Labor didn’t have the advantage of Melissa Parke’s incumbency (which will be irrelevant next election) and also didn’t have the advantage of having Joe Bullock at the top of the ticket

  8. SUSC,

    We used to have ice skating on the River Thames.

    The climate has been changing for millions of years and will keep changing.

    Why not deal with the problem of population growth instead?

  9. It’s good to see the “left” are respectful enough of the professionalism of the poling companies to make silly comments about where to poll was taken.
    Whenever to righties get a poll they don’t like they claim it was taken in a Labor strong hold

  10. Why do you support a Party that supports climate change?

    We are still paying billions for the climate change policy only the Libs have hidden the cost to taxpayers in the budget. We are still paying a carbon tax, just in a different way

  11. TTFaB –

    A DD in March mean not Senate election reform and short Senate terms.

    A DD in March would be about taking advantage of current high polling and avoiding the need to bring down a budget if it all looks like too much of a mess.

    If they do the calculations and decide that a guaranteed 2 years (assuming they don’t want a Senate only election down the track) is preferable to chancing it down the track they will do that. They probably won’t, but still it’s not that big of a negative on the ledger.

    A DD in July means practically full length Senate terms and provides the opportunity for Senate election reform.

    Yeah, not happening. The hard-heads in the Libs don’t really care that much about Senate reform so it won’t figure in their calculations one way or the other.

    The Senate terms are a minor consideration and of much less importance than winning the House again for however long they can do so.

  12. Tom @ 105: A normal house and half Senate election later than July would not, however, preclude Senate electoral reform. A half Senate election would also be less problematical administratively, as the senators’ terms wouldn’t commence until 1 July 2017. There would be plenty of time to count the votes.

    Of course, that would mean that the current crop of cross bench senators elected in 2013 would still be around until 2020, but who knows what might happen with a lower quota in a double dissolution? The government might think that the devil you know ….

    Senator Leyonhjelm has made it clear that Senate electoral reform would give him a bad case of s*** on the liver, but he has that anyway, and the rest of the crossbenchers would probably be more philosophical about it.

  13. [ Unless the ALP get another candidate of Parke’s calibre and politics it is definitely on.]

    No its not. People in Freo still remember the unmitigated and embarrassing disaster that was Adele Carles.

    And oh hallelujah, TBA the VI is back. 🙁

  14. 115

    There is plenty of time for Senate election reform before a half-Senate election because the writs cannot be issued before the 1st of July. No argument there.

  15. [He has made absolutely no impression on their vote, whatsoever, since he became leader, stubbornly stuck around 10% as it is.]

    This is not the case.

    Richard Di Natale became leader of the Greens Party in May 2015.

    Subsequently the party’s primary vote surged to over 14% – a huge increase.

    The drop in the Greens vote correlates with Turnbull’s ascension to the position of PM. Labor’s primary vote also dipped sharply.

    The current Greens vote around 10% is still better than its fed 2013 result of 8.65%.

    In contrast Labor’s current primary vote is less than its results in 2013 fed election.

  16. Pegasus @ 121,

    ‘ Richard Di Natale became leader of the Greens Party in May 2015.

    Subsequently the party’s primary vote surged to over 14% – a huge increase.’

    So it went up when he became leader.

    ‘ The drop in the Greens vote correlates with Turnbull’s ascension to the position of PM.’

    So it went down subsequently, Turnbull or no, to 10%.

    That is The Greens’ definition of a success. Hmm.

  17. Far too early to consider dumping Shorten. In three months if no change in polls, maybe, to save the furniture. He’s low on charisma but high on competence but the latter is a more enduring trait. Give him air and time I say.

  18. C@tmomma, 123

    Either Shorten is a bad leader for having their polling drop down to 30% at its lowest under Turnbull as well as Di Natale, or neither are. Your pick.

  19. First Anna Burke, then Melissa Parke – two high profile vocal critics of Labor’s asylum seeker policy – have decided to cut their losses and not re-contest their seats at the next election.

    Two people with a conscience, compassion and humanity.

    The federal parliamentary Labor party will be the poorer because of their departure from its ranks.

  20. Additionally if we are to go on numbers, proportionally the Greens shed less voters due to Turnbull than the ALP did in all states (as referenced by the quarterly breakdown by William). This to me would indicate that either the ALP got most of the wet Libs who would vote Labor essentially as a protest or the ALP and Shorten did a worse job keeping those voters around (the ALP is recording a drop in support since the last election, whereas the Greens are recording a raise).

  21. Kevin, 128

    As a Green voter I feel like I have to say he is a saint, what are you talking about?

    On a more serious note, do you have any ideas for Tasmanian LC reform?

  22. [ Exaggerating, scaremongering and letting people think he is a saint.

    Not much has changed. ]
    Didn’t he want to pursue photography more seriously or something?

  23. Airlines @ 129,

    ‘ (the ALP is recording a drop in support since the last election, whereas the Greens are recording a raise).’

    Conveniently forgetting the 2 years of polling when Labor were ahead of the Coalition government.

  24. [In three months if no change in polls, maybe, to save the furniture.]

    Remember when they dumped Crean for Latham, leading to a worse election result than the previous two elections. We have no way of knowing just how much more or less furniture was lost, but overall it turned out to be a bad move.

    There is no Hawke, Keating, Gillard, Turnbull or Rudd waiting in the wings with a furniture saver certificate. Anyone available provides no assurance at all of a better result at the next election and, given the transaction costs of dumping a leader, will almost certainly lead to a worse result than would be the case. So much more because the Government is inherently weak and could collapse in on itself like a house of cards, if enough pressure is applied. A Labor leadership bloodletting would be just the pressure relief that Turncoat, Joyce and Morrison want.

  25. Airlines@131

    Kevin, 128

    As a Green voter I feel like I have to say he is a saint, what are you talking about?

    His preference for sensationalism and melodrama over facts, especially in the area of threatened species. The current article on my site goes into it in more detail in places. I am not especially anti-Greens (many of their social issue policies are good) but I get tired of them steering conservation debates into the same old boring superficial mush rather than something that comes from a strategic scientific approach to priorities.

    On a more serious note, do you have any ideas for Tasmanian LC reform?

    Sure. I’d change the cycle to make more of the seats go to elections at the same time (2-3 per year is not enough, maybe 5 at once every two years, odd years only to avoid state election years, might make a difference). I’d also scrap the spending cap (as a compromise I’d accept increasing it to $50,000) and I’d scrap the restriction that prevents naming candidates without their consent.

  26. [November 8, 2016 ? We will have an election before then Laurie. You seem confident Mal will win. Why ?]

    The current ascendancy of Trump and Sanders is showing up the pundits badly. They are not as smart as they think they are. And people are increasingly less interested in their babble.

  27. I don’t blame Bill Shorten for the media coverage he is getting. Just look at the buzzfeed article by Mark Di Stefano with the headline “Don’t Touch Me” to see what Labor is coping with.

    This applies to the media coverage of the Greens as well so you cannot say its a Labor malaise.

    The malaise is all media bias.



    More labor ( + 0. 7 ) and greens ( + 2.7 ) voters prefer Shorten as PM in this poll than in the November poll with a rise of 1.8% in coalition voters supporting Turnbull.

    For what, if anything that is worth.


    There seems to be some kind of issue there. Based on those party scores and the primaries Shorten’s better-PM should be at least 25 not 19. Something is wrong – maybe the ALP scores are the wrong way around. I’ve queried it.]

    Kevin, have you had a response to this query? It all seems rather strange. I’ve also been looking for references to Doyley’s figures and they don’t seem to be on the ReachTel site. Have they been removed. Nor can I find any reference to this poll in News Corpse.

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Looks like the housing boom has been a boon to money launderers.
    Shane Warne’s charity organisation is about to be wound up as sponsors distance themselves from it.
    Lenore Taylor reckons Clive Palmer has taken us all for a big ride.
    Hooray! The Saturday Paper is back after a long holiday hiatus. Mike Seccombe looks deeply into Palmer’s affairs and wonders if it’s all over for him.
    Here’s the second of the New Matilda’s articles on the ABC’s coverage of the NBN.
    And John Manague writes about Turnbull’s media censorship has NBN mess.
    This is simply disgusting!,8602
    As is this.
    Just what Woolworths needed!
    Turnbull’s change in tone in foreign affairs away from that of Abbott.

  30. Section 2 . . .

    Paula Matthewson says that the Liberal Party is fighting an internal war.
    Bob Ellis on how America might bring Turnbull undone.
    The experts pass judgement on Morrison’s performance as Treasurer so far.
    Michael Gordon examines Turnbull’s prospects.
    Judith Ireland calls out the Australia Day holiday.
    Clive Palmer denies he is strapped for cash and he goes off fishing.
    Will Bernie Sanders do an Obama on Hillary?
    The frightening future of Melbourne’s weather.
    Centrelink’s 22000000 unanswered calls.
    Van Badham has her say on the odious US pckup artist.

  31. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Melissa Parke to retire from politics. That’s a pity.
    Just have a look at his one from Alan Moir!

    Matt Golding on the US Republicans.

    Nice work from Pat Campbell on this year’s economic prospects.

    Macca celebrates James Packer’s romance.
    Jon Kudelka on Clive Palmer’s money matters.
    Will the Liberals have the big cleanout?

  32. Kevin(s)

    Is it possible that there is a large number of solid Labor/Green voters who just do not much like Shorten and objectivley think Turnbull a better PM. They may still vote Labor or Green, beczause they loath the policies and the rest of the LNP, but still prefer Turnbull.

    Now I expect there are plently of leftish people in the ALP who feel that way, (Rex??) but 6% seems high.

    Do not forget a few things that are relevant. Education and perceived intelligence is still very important to many including Labor voters. Turnbull wins on this. The capacity to make money is a valued skill. Turnbull wins again. people dislike factional operatives. Shorten loses on this one. Unionists, especially the sort of deal doing types are not liked. Shorten loses on this. Shorten may carry baggage from the RGR wars. I would have throught it would have passed by now, but the persistence of Shorten’s low ratings makes me wonder.

    It is a VERY important question because if those numbers are true then there is a 6% Shorten dislike factor amongst labor voters!!!!! Not yet but I am almost talking myself into the Rex camp. As I have said, give it to February. Another 4 weeks.

  33. dtt @ 148,

    ‘ people dislike factional operatives. Shorten loses on this one. ‘

    Malcolm Turnbull, Moderate Faction leader in the Liberal Party (though how moderate is Malcolm really? I guess he is cf the Conservatives in his own party, but I digress), just engineered the parachuting into parliament of his faction’s Numbers Man, Trent Zimmerman, in North Sydney!?!

    I guess what you’re really saying is that Malcolm can get away with it but Bill can’t. Which seems to be the leitmotif of the Turnbull ascendancy. He can get away with things that other politicians can’t.

  34. That Matt Golding cartoon about the ‘Trump-Palin’ inspired a thought that maybe the Republican Party are using them as red meat to keep the Tea Party types sated, as they were starting to drift away unsatisfied from the party, until they get closer to the serious end of the nomination season, at which time the Establishment candidate, eg Jeb Bush, comes down the middle to satisfy their traditional base? Also serving to keep the electorate more right of centre than it otherwise might have been?

Comments Page 3 of 55
1 2 3 4 55

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *